Todd Market Forecast: Buffet Says He Likes The Stock Market

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 05 October 2017 06:15

For 3pm PST Wednesday October 4 , 2017

DOW + 20 on 59 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 3 on 16 net advances



STOCKS: The market was pretty much flat on Wednesday with a mild upward bias. Helping hold things up may have been a somewhat better than expected ISM number. Also, Warren Buffett was on the wire stating that he liked the stock market. This was probably a minor, but positive influence.

GOLD: Gold inched up from an oversold condition. Still looks bearish.

CHART: The Russell 2000 was lower today. Frequently, it leads the Dow and S&P 500. We'll soon see. Like tomorrow.

Screen Shot 2017-10-05 at 6.08.42 AM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are long the SSO from 95.27. Move your stop to 97.27.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.

System 9 We are in cash.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: Oil inventories were down 6 million barrels. Last week they were down 1.6 million. The ADP employment report showed 135,000 jobs added, less than the expected 140,000. The ISM non manufacturing index was 59.8, better than the consensus 55.5..

INTERESTING STUFF: You must not fight too often with one enemy, or you will teach him all your art of war. --------  

                                                                                                                                              Napoleon Bonaparte

TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto gained 24.

BONDS: Bonds were slightly higher.

THE REST: The dollar had a slight pullback. Crude oil was again lower.   

Bonds --Bearish as of September 27.

U.S. dollar - Bullish as of September 13.

Euro --- Bearish as of September 13.

Gold ----Bearish as of Sept. 11.

Silver---- Bearish as of Sept. 11.

Crude oil ----Bearish as of October 2.

Toronto Stock Exchange---- Bullish as of September 20, 2017.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.

Screen Shot 2017-10-05 at 6.14.53 AM


Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.  


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