Todd Market Forecast: Change To Bullish US Dollar

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 13 September 2017 17:51

5:00pm PST Monday May 8, 2017

DOW + 39 on 13 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 6 on172 net advances



STOCKS: Stocks spent most of the day in a high level consolidation with a bias to the upside. The main catalyst for the market seemed to be the price of oil and the accompanying rally in oil stocks. The word was decreased supply worldwide although the U.S. figures didn't reflect that.

Near term setbacks aside, I continue to believe that we have unfinished business on the upside.

GOLD: Gold resumed its decline, down $6. Rising rates and a rising dollar were instrumental.

CHART One of the more bullish considerations is the fact that the U.S. rally isn't an isolated phenomenon. Stock markets around the world are rallying. We thought that perhaps the German market was leading us down in July and August, especially since seasonality was a negative, but it now looks like this market is getting back in gear with our market.


BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now.

System 8 We are in cash. Stay there for now.

System 9 We are in cash.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: The PPI final demand rose 0.2%, less than the expected rise of 0.3%. Oil inventories rose 5.9 million barrels. Last week they rose 4.6 million.

INTERESTING STUFF: The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.------- Alexis de Tocqueville


TORONTO EXCHANGE: Toronto lost 17.

BONDS: Bonds keep on dropping.

THE REST: The dollar had a nice upmove. Crude oil surged.

Bonds --Bearish as of September 11.

U.S. dollar - Change to bullish as of September 13.

Euro --- Change to bearish as of September 13.

Gold ----Bearish as of Sept. 11.

Silver---- Bearish as of Sept. 11.

Crude oil ----Change to bullish as of September 13.

Toronto Stock Exchange---- Bearish as of June 14, 2017.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.  


     Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 13.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish.

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.




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