Stocks & Equities

Negative Divergence In The Gold Stocks

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Posted by Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Thursday, 09 November 2017 07:02

After a severe selloff, precious metals have enjoyed a bit of a respite. Corrections are a function of time and/or price. The correction to the recent selloff has been more in time than price. Metals and miners have stabilized over the past nine trading days but have not rebounded much in price terms. Gold has barely rallied $20/oz while GDX and GDXJ have rebounded less than 4% and 5% respectively. In addition to the weakness of this rally, the gold stocks are sporting a negative divergence and that does not bode well for an end of the year rally.

The negative divergence is visible in the daily bar charts below. We plot Gold along with the gold stock ETF’s and are own “mini” GDXJ index. The price action in Gold since October looks constructive. The market has held its October low and the 200-day moving average. It could have a chance to reach $1300-$1310. However, the miners are saying no to that possibility. Everything from large miners to small juniors made a new low while Gold did not. The second negative divergence is in regards to the 200-day moving average.




Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: Put Call Ratio Bullish

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 16:13

 Tuesday November 7, 2017 - Available Mon- Friday after 3:00pm PST.

DOW + 9 on 465 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 19 on 1264 net declines



STOCKS: The market mostly slipped on Tuesday. Earnings were the main culprit and interestingly enough, dropping interest rates were cited. The latter because supposedly lower rates pressure banks. I think this is nonsense. Stocks rallied from '09 through much of 2016 precisely because rates were near zero. But, we have to admit that the XLF or the financial ETF was down over 1% today.

Part of the problem was an overbought RSI on many indices. That can be ignored for a while, but at some point it tends to be a deterrent.

GOLD: Gold was fell back $5. The yellow metal is just waffling around right now.

CHART: The CBOE put call ratio closed above 1.0 today. When that happens, the S&P has a tendency to move higher over the next day or three.  

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 2.26.11 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



Stocks & Equities

Nothing Can Bring Down This Market Except . . .

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 06:02

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 6.04.43 AMThis past week, we experienced yet another horrendous terrorist attack in New York City. And, amazingly, just like what occurred after several other terrorist attacks that have been experienced over the last year, the market rallied right after the attack.

It has almost gotten to the point that people now expect the stock market to rally after a terrorist attack. Have we really become this warped in our thinking? Must we hold fast to ridiculous notions that news is what drives the stock market to the point that we have to resign ourselves to believing that the market will rally “because” of a terrorist attack? Do you not see how ridiculous these perspectives really are? 

Yet, if the market dropped after a terrorist attack, there is no question in my mind that every analyst and their mother would be absolutely certain that the market dropped specifically due to the terrorist attack. Every article the next day would have been pointing to the attack being the definitive “cause” of the market drop. And, if I then challenged this false exogenous causation theory, the response I would receive is “don’t you believe your eyes?” Yet, not a single analyst dares to suggest that the markets are rallying because of news of terrorist attacks despite seeing many instances of this occurring over the last two years. Do, they not believe their eyes? 

Are you starting to see my point yet? Do you see through the intellectual dishonesty of maintaining these old perspectives of what moves the market?

I cite this study often, but I think the recent rally after the New York attack should drive this point home even further. In August 1998, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution published an article by Tom Walker, who conducted his own study of 42 years’ worth of “surprise” news events and the stock market’s corresponding reactions. His conclusion, which will be surprising to most, was that it was exceptionally difficult to identify a connection between market trading and dramatic surprise news. Based upon Walker's study and conclusions, even if you had the news beforehand, you would still not be able to determine the direction of the market only based upon such news.

And, this past week’s stock market action further supports Mr. Walker’s conclusion. But, we have to begin to look at markets in a more intellectually honest manner in order to be able to see it. However, I am quite certain that the next time a news event coincides with a market move, all the usual suspects will be out front screaming how the news event was the certain cause of the market movement. And, therein lies the intellectual dishonesty inherent in most financial reporting and analysis today.

Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations



Stocks & Equities

Tactics For Stocks Moving Higher

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 03 November 2017 06:24

today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):

SF60 Key Charts & Video Update


SFS Key Charts & Video Update


SF Juniors Key Charts & Video Analysis



website: www.superforcesignals.com


Stocks & Equities

S&P 500 At New Record High, But Will Uptrend Continue?

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Posted by Paul Rejczak

on Thursday, 02 November 2017 06:20


Intraday trade: Our Tuesday's intraday trading outlook was neutral. It proved quite accurate because the S&P 500 index gained just 0.1% following relatively narrow intraday trading range. We still can see some short-term overbought conditions. Yesterday's reversal off new record high is a short-term negative signal. Therefore, intraday short position is favored. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,595 and potential profit target is at 2,545 (S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish today. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and +0.3% on Wednesday, as investors took short-term profits off the table following recent rally. The S&P 500 index reached new record high at the level of 2,588.40, before closing slightly below 2,580. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it gained 0.3%. The blue-chip index reached new all-time high at the level of 23,517.71. The technology Nasdaq Composite reached new record high at the level of 6,759.66, but it closed 0.3% lower. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at 2,570-2,575, marked by some recent local lows. The next support level remains at 2,560-2,565, marked by previous local lows. The support level is also at 2,545-2,550, marked by last Wednesday's daily low, among others. On the other hand, potential resistance level is at around 2,590-2,600, marked by record high. The S&P 500 index extended its over eight-year-long bull market yesterday, as it reached new record high closer to 2,600 mark. Will bull market continue? Or is this some topping pattern ahead of downward reversal? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see medium-term technical overbought conditions:


Uncertainty Ahead Of Economic Data, Earnings



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