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Stock Trading Alert: Stocks Fluctuate Along Record Highs - Topping Pattern Or Just Pause?

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 11 May 2017 09:09

Sent to subscribers on May 11, 2017, 6:56 AM.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.2% and +0.1% on Wednesday, extending their short-term fluctuations, as investors took short-term profits off the table. The S&P 500 index remains close to its Tuesday's new all-time high at the level of 2,403.87. The index has broken slightly above the March 1 high on Tuesday, before closing lower by 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average remained below the level of 21,000, and the technology Nasdaq Composite index continued to trade above the level of 6,100. Will the broad stock market index continue its eight-year-long bull market? The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is now at 2,390, marked by short-term local low. The next support level remains at 2,375-2,380, marked by the April 25 daily gap up of 2,376.98-2,381.15. The support level is also at 2,355-2,370, marked by the April 24 daily gap up. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at 2,400-2.405, marked by new record high, among others. We can see some volatility following six-month-long rally off last year's November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before medium-term downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index is currently trading along its medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

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Stocks & Equities

Extremely Low Market Volatility Hottest Market Story Right Now

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Posted by Fred Imbert

on Tuesday, 09 May 2017 07:28

The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, which serves as stock market fear gauge and on Monday closed at its lowest level since 1993.

The equity chief at one of Wall Street's biggest firms breaks down the hottest story  in markets right now

The equity market is quiet — some might say too quiet.

It's a development that's confounded Wall Street traders and strategists alike for weeks. They've debated whether the environment is as calm as it seems, or if the depressed VIX is masking a stock market shock brewing under the surface.

....continue reading HERE

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Another measure of Market Sentiment:

Screen Shot 2017-05-09 at 7.06.59 AM

 

To see how each of the 7 indicators are trending go HERE

...related:

 

 


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Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: Short Term Bearish

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecastt

on Monday, 08 May 2017 14:55

3:00pm PST Monday May 8, 2017

DOW + 5 on 350 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 2 on 350 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bearish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: The markets got what they wanted in the French election, but it was discounted last week. Today was sell the news.

The market is quite overbought by many measures. That by itself would not render a short term sell signal, but when you consider the underlying breadth, it makes us a bit cautious. We cover this more in the chart section below.

Any multi day retreat from current levels should provide an opportunity. The intermediate trend remains quite positive.

GOLD: Gold was flat. Not much happening here, but it is oversold.

CHART The S&P has been up 5 out of the past 7 days, but breadth has been down 5 out of the past 7 days. There are no guarantees in this business, but that is normally a short term negative. Sorry to use the same chart so often lately, but it's the most important consideration currently.

Screen Shot 2017-05-08 at 2.23.28 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Stocks & Equities

A Look at NYSE Margin Debt and the Market

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Wednesday, 03 May 2017 07:01

Note: The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through March.

The New York Stock Exchange publishes end-of-month data for margin debt on the NYX data website, where we can also find historical data back to 1959. Let's examine the numbers and study the relationship between margin debt and the market, using the S&P 500 as the surrogate for the latter.

The first chart shows the two series in real terms — adjusted for inflation to today's dollar using the Consumer Price Index as the deflator. At the 1995 start date, we were well into the Boomer Bull Market that began in 1982 and approaching the start of the Tech Bubble that shaped investor sentiment during the second half of the decade. The astonishing surge in leverage in late 1999 peaked in March 2000, the same month that the S&P 500 hit its all-time daily high, although the highest monthly close for that year was five months later in August. A similar surge began in 2006, peaking in July 2007, three months before the market peak.

Debt hit a trough in February 2009, a month before the March market bottom. It then began another major cycle of increase.

The Latest Margin Data

The NYSE has released new data for margin debt, now available through March. The latest debt level is up 1.7% month-over-month. The current level is at another record high. Note the inflation-adjusted version is also at its record high. The March data gives us an additional sense of investor behavior since the start of the new administration.

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...continue reading & 4 more charts HERE



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Stocks & Equities

Regression to Trend: Another Look at Long-Term Market Performance

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Tuesday, 02 May 2017 07:28

Quick take: At the end of April the inflation-adjusted S&P 500 index price was 97% above its long-term trend, unchanged from the previous month.


About the only certainty in the stock market is that, over the long haul, over performance turns into under performance and vice versa. Is there a pattern to this movement? Let's apply some simple regression analysis (see footnote below) to the question.

...continue reading HERE

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...continue reading HERE

...also from Advisor Perspectives:

Is the Stock Market Cheap?



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