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Two Scenarios, One Strategy

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Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker.com

on Monday, 20 November 2017 06:13

Whether the stock market is entering a multi-month parabolic phase or beginning a new multi-year secular bull market the trading strategy is the same. This video details that strategy. 

....also: Really, Are We That Stupid?

Screen Shot 2017-11-20 at 6.24.04 AM



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Stocks & Equities

Stock Market Crash Omens And Predictions: Another Day Another Lie

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Posted by Sol Palha's Tactical Investor

on Friday, 17 November 2017 06:40

Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.

Mark Twain 

Over the past several years the Naysayers have predicted the Market would crash and burn; we blatantly disagreed and opted instead to state that the market would continue to soar higher and higher. Despite the severe beating these naysayers have taken, they insist on regurgitating the same trash over and over again in the blind hope that by some miracle their insane ramblings come to pass. As soon as October was upon us, these experts started screaming at the top of their lungs. What was their latest prediction; a repeat of the 1987 Stock Market Crash. We immediately repudiated these predictions. Here is a brief excerpt from the article we posted in October.  

They never seem to let up on pushing this sewage onto the unsuspecting masses. This is a clear example of insanity in action;  mouthing the same thing over and over again with the desperate hope that this time the outcome will be different.  The outcome will not be different this time, at least not yet. These guys should focus on writing fiction for reality seems to elude them completely. For years we have stated (and rightly so) that until the sentiment changes, this market will continue to soar higher and higher.

The latest nonsense is to state market omens that have a terrible record of coming to pass are about to trigger a crash; ones odds are better if one looks at tea leaves, plays with skull bones or hires some monkey to throw darts at a board with the words up or down plastered on it. One has to determine the trend first and look at several underlying forces before one can attempt to predict where the market is headed. However, these fools read a book or two, memorisesomeone else’s theories and assume all of a sudden they are experts. Fundamentals and technical’s are both useless when used in isolation. One has to look at the emotion driving the markets. In other words, what are the masses thinking or doing? When one looks at the sentiment data, the conclusion is inescapable. Stock markets always crash on a note of euphoriaand the masses are far from being happy. 

Masses are not embracing one of the Most Hated Bull Markets in History 

The images below speak a thousand words, so there is no need for us to add any commentary. 

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Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: NAAIM Exposure Index Supports Further Rally

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 06:13

www.toddmarketforecast.com

Todd Market Forecast for 3:00 pm PST Tuesday November 14, 2017.

DOW - 30 on 725 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 20 on 382 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: The weight of the evidence suggests a market that should move higher, but it's being suppressed by the lack of progress on at tax reform plan. More revelations about Senate candidate Roy Moore are also contributing to the uncertainty. As you know, the market hates uncertainty.

One specific factor leading the market lower was a drop in commodities such as crude oil

GOLD: Gold was down in the early going, but came back to up by $2.

That is normally a bullish pattern.

CHART: We have been showing the put call ratio and noting that it shows sufficient bearishness to support a multi day rally. Here's another measure of sentiment. It comes to us courtesy of Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial Publications.

It is the NAAIM Exposure Index and measures the overall market exposure of money managers. Right now it's under 60%, which shows a lot of bearishness.  

Screen Shot 2017-11-15 at 6.24.29 AM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Stocks & Equities

The Importance of Trading Less - Strategy of the Week

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 05:54

Screen Shot 2017-09-19 at 2.00.45 PM

perspectives commentary

In this week's issue:

Stockscores Free Webinars

What are the Economics of Stock Trading?

Nov 15, 2017 6:00 PM PST

Click here to Register

Whether you are a long term investor or a short term active trader, it is essential to understand the economics of trading. How should you measure your returns? What are the risks? How much capital does it take to trade? What are the potential gains? These questions and more will be addressed during this webinar. I will show performance data for my day, swing and position trading over the last few months.

Stockscores Market Minutes – Expect Failure

Whether it is the development of a new trading strategy or just the trades you make day to day, expect to fail often. Trading is simple, but it is not easy. Learn from your mistakes and don't let failure stop you from achieving success. That plus this week's Market Analysis and the trade of the week on RLOG.

Click here to watch

To get instant updates when I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores YouTube Channel

Trader Training – The Importance of Trading Less

It's better to miss a good trade than to take a bad one. Missing a good trade doesn't deplete your capital-it only fails to add to it. A bad trade will not only reduce the size of your trading account, it will eat up emotional capital and your confidence. 



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Stocks & Equities

Trump rally alive and well

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Posted by Craig Erlam -Marketpulse.com

on Friday, 10 November 2017 06:03

stocks11817One year on and the Trump rally is very much alive and well; U.S. dollar consolidating but further gains may lie ahead; GBP under pressure as May’s problems mount; Oil inventories eyed as oil rally continues.

One year on from Donald Trump’s election victory and U.S. equity markets are on course to open near record highs once again, having made stunning gains over the last 12 months – more than 30% in the case of the Dow and Nasdaq.

While many may claim that Trump’s achievements to date equate to very little given his difficulties repealing and replacing Obamacare, slower than expected progress on tax reform and minimal detail on fiscal stimulus, investors have clearly not been deterred as is evident by staggering gains in U.S. stocks. Of course, much of this may still be conditional on the President delivering on the latter two in particular and some is also attributable to the rally in global equity markets over the same period, but the Trump trade is clearly still alive and well.

This is despite the fact that the Fed has raised interest rates three times since the election and is likely to do so again next month, which many will have believed could have threatened the economic recovery and with that, the stock market rally. That is clearly not the case and with the economy having now come off two quarters of around 3% annualized growth, one may wonder whether there is any need for the spending element of the President’s plan to revive the economy. There certainly doesn’t appear to be the desire for it that we’ve seen for tax reform over the course of the year.

While political and geopolitical events have caused minor problems along the way, the rally has been very gradual and consistent with few hiccups along the way. In the absence of any major U.S. economic events this week, Trump’s tour of Asia will continue to attract the bulk of the attention, although I imagine the rhetoric coming from the meetings and press conferences will be broadly in line with what we’ve heard already. Assuming no slip ups along the way and no unexpected back and forth with North Korea – which is possible given the country is one of the main topics of conversation – there’s little reason to believe we won’t see more of the same in the markets.

USD consolidating but further gains may lie ahead



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