Stocks & Equities

Trump Juncker Progress on Trade Sends Stocks Surging

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 26 July 2018 06:46

Todd Market Forecast for 3pm Pacific Wednesday July 25, 2018. 

Dow +172 on 690 net advances

NASDAQ COMP +91 on 381 net advances



STOCKS: Today the analysis is pretty easy. President Trump and EU Commission President, Jean -Claude Juncker made progress in trade talks. So much so that the overnight stock index futures are surging. 

Even before the announcement the market was making progress. We had been worried about market breadth, but it straightened out somewhat today. 

GOLD:Gold was up $ 7. Not ready to change our bearish posture. 

CHART: The QQQ, which is the ETF for the NASDAQ 100 is at an all time high. This index tends to lead the Dow and S&P 500 so I would expect them to follow suit over the next few months.

Screenshot 2018-07-26 06.37.07

BOTTOM LINE: (Trading)

Our intermediate term system is on a buy.

System 7 We are in cash. Stay there for now. 

System 9 Neutral. 

System 10 - Gold We are in cash. Stay there for now. 

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS: New home sales were 631,000, higher than the expected 608,000. Oil was down 6.1 million barrels. Last week they rose 5.8 million. On Thursday we get nd oil inventories.

INTERESTING STUFF Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. ------Napoleon Bonaparte

TORONTO EXCHANGE:Toronto gained 30. 

BONDS: Bonds made anew reaction low. 

THE REST: The dollar lost some ground. Crude oil was somewhat higher. 

Bonds --Bearish as of July 20.

U.S. dollar - Bullish as of June 27.

Euro --- Bearish as of June 27. 

Gold ----Bearish as of June 15.

Silver---- Bearish as of June 15.

Crude oil ----Bearish as of July 5.

Toronto Stock Exchange----Bullish as of Feb. 12.

We are on a long term buy signal for the markets of the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany and France.


Screenshot 2018-07-26 06.40.43

Monetary conditions (+2 means the Fed is actively dropping rates; +1 means a bias toward easing. 0 means neutral, -1 means a bias toward tightening, -2 means actively raising rates). RSI (30 or below is oversold, 80 or above is overbought). McClellan Oscillator ( minus 100 is oversold. Plus 100 is overbought). Composite Gauge (5 or below is negative, 13 or above is positive). Composite Gauge five day m.a. (8.0 or below is overbought. 12.0 or above is oversold). CBOE Put Call Ratio ( .80 or below is a negative. 1.00 or above is a positive). Volatility Index, VIX (low teens bearish, high twenties bullish), VIX % single day change. + 5 or greater bullish. -5 or less, bearish. VIX % change 5 day m.a. +3.0 or above bullish, -3.0 or below, bearish. Advances minus declines three day m.a.( +500 is bearish. – 500 is bullish). Supply Demand 5 day m.a. (.45 or below is a positive. .80 or above is a negative). Trading Index (TRIN) 1.40 or above bullish. No level for bearish. 

  No guarantees are made. Traders can and do lose money. The publisher may take positions in recommended securities.


Stocks & Equities

Overbought or Oversold? Let These Mathematical Signals Be Your Guide

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Monday, 23 July 2018 11:34


just the facts, ma'am dragnet TV series sgt. joe friday

Anticipate before you participate in the market. This is a classic piece of advice I like to give investors and have written about extensively in my CEO blog, Frank Talk. Financial markets are influenced by relatively predictable cycles and trading patterns, and by better understanding these we are able to react thoughtfully to headline noise or unexpected market developments.

How many of you remember the old police procedural Dragnet? In it, Sgt. Joe Friday famously uses the line “Just the facts, ma’am.” I’ve always felt this nuts-and-bolts attitude relates perfectly to how our investments team makes its decisions on where to allocate capital. Follow the models, look at the math—and leave emotions at the door.

A Sentiment Indicator for Contrarian Investing

At U.S. Global Investors, one tool that we find particularly useful to track the different market cycles is our U.S. Global Sentiment Indicator. This indicator tracks 126 commodities, indices, sectors, currencies and international markets to help monitor volatility and cash flow levels.



Stocks & Equities

It's Hard To Find Problems With Microsoft's Q4 Earnings: The Street Weighs In

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Posted by Ezra Shwarzbaum

on Friday, 20 July 2018 11:43


Microsoft Corporation MSFT 2.53% reported fourth-quarter earnings Thursday. EPS came in at $1.14 versus analysts’ $1.08 consensus estimate. Sales for the quarter also beat the street’s estimate of $29.22 billion by about $900,000. Microsoft’s earnings were “what a big wow really looks like,”.... CLICK for the complete article


Stocks & Equities

Macquarie Downgrades Twitter, Says Valuation 'Will Likely Limit Upside'

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Posted by Hannah Genig

on Wednesday, 18 July 2018 11:21


User trends, limited catalysts and valuation concerns triggered a downgrade of Twitter, Inc. by Macquarie on Wednesday. A point of concern are Twitter's usage trends, which have and will not increase rapidly.... CLICK for the complete article


Stocks & Equities

Netflix: Not A Buy On The Dip

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Posted by SeekingAlpha

on Tuesday, 17 July 2018 11:26


Netflix (NFLX) plunged in after-hours trade after the company's growth in membership numbers failed to meet its forecast for the first time in five quarters. Netflix shares fell 14% to US$344 in after-hours trade, the steepest drop in nearly four years if the stock plunged on the same trajectory during market hours. While the company has a first-mover advantage and owns a dominant market share in the online video streaming business, competitive pressures are starting to intensify.... CLICK for the complete article


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