Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,410, and profit target at 2,200, S&P 500 index).
Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:
Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral
The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.2% and 0.4% on Friday, retracing some of their recent move down, as investors reacted to better-than-expected monthly jobs data release, among others. The S&P 500 index has bounced off support level of 2,350 on Thursday. The broad stock market index remains relatively close to its all-time high of 2,400.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed slightly above 20,900 mark on Friday, and the technology Nasdaq Composite index got closer to the level of 5,900 again. All three major stock market indexes continue to trade relatively close to their early March new record highs. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,350-2,360, marked by previous short-term consolidation and the February 21 daily gap up of 2,351.16-2,354.91. The support level is also at around 2,320. On the other hand, the nearest important level of resistance is at around 2,380, marked by some short-term local highs, and the next resistance level is at 2,390-2,400, marked by all-time high. Will the market extend its year-long medium-term uptrend even further before some more meaningful downward correction? We can see some short-term volatility following four-month-long rally off last year's November low at around 2,100. Is this a topping pattern before downward reversal? The uptrend accelerated on Wednesday, March 1 and it looked like a blow-off top pattern accompanied by some buying frenzy. The S&P 500 index continues to trade above its over year-long medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart: