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The Market Reality for the Election Next Week

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 07 November 2016 08:32

2016-Unknown"grab your socks. We are off for a bit of volatility. Keep in mind Trump would be great for a domestic market rally. Cutting corporate taxes to 15% will bring home $3 trillion to say the least. The Reagan Tax Cuts resulted in the Dow rising 600%. Tax increases, have ALWAYS resulted in declines. That is the blunt reality that Washington fights."

...continue reading HERE

 

...related:

Live From The Trading Desk: Raking in the Cash



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Stocks & Equities

Stock Trading Alert: SP500 At 2,100 Support Level - Make Or Break?

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 03 November 2016 07:02

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,150, and profit target at 2,020, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook is neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes lost between 0.4% and 0.8% on Wednesday, extending their short-term downtrend, as investors reacted to the FOMC Rate Decision, quarterly corporate earnings, economic data releases. The S&P 500 index broke below its September - October local lows on Tuesday. It is the lowest since early July. The nearest important support level is at around 2,075-2,090, marked by some previous consolidation. The next important level of support is at 2,035-2,045, marked by the late June daily gap up. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,110-2,120, and the next resistance level is at 2,150 marked by last month's local highs, as we can see on the daily chart:

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Stocks & Equities

Stock Market Rally on FED Speak Today?

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Posted by Brad Gudgeon

on Wednesday, 02 November 2016 08:05

The chart below shows that we have the likely hood of staging a huge rally today in the stock market. In fact, the NASDAQ 100 could make a new high by Friday. The trines of October 30 and November 1 turned out to be exhaustion points in a down trend. The 5/10/20 and 40 week lows still loom ahead and are due sometime in mid to late month. Thanksgiving week could be pivotal.

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Brad Gudgeon, editor and author of the BluStar Market Timer, is a market veteran of over 30 years www.blustarmarkettimer.info

related:

Look At This Remarkable Chart As The Public Dumps Stocks! 5th Largest Outflow In The Past 10 Years!



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Stocks & Equities

Don't Sweat The Election. The Next Crisis Is Already Baked Into The Cake

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Tuesday, 01 November 2016 06:11

riday was one of those days where you walk away from the screen for a minute and come back to find a completely different market. All it took was the FBI finding a trove of new Clinton emails, thus breathing new life into the Trump campaign and throwing what was a foregone conclusion back into doubt. Stocks tanked and gold popped, illustrating Wall Street's preference in the upcoming election.

It will be this way until the vote, especially if polls continue to tighten and the outcome remains uncertain. So there's no point in obsessing over fundamentals for now. Nothing real will matter until we find out who gets to mess things up going forward. Sort of like the original Ghost Busters where the demon/god says "Choose the form of the destructor."

In other words it's a mess either way. Only the details of the mess are in question.

From here on out politics are only relevant at the extremes — major war, corruption scandal, martial law etc. Short of that, the fiat currency/fractional reserve banking world has such institutional momentum that it really won't matter whether Trump is picking on bankers and building his wall or Clinton is protecting Wall Street and raising taxes. Debt will keep soaring as it has under every president since Reagan and jobs will disappear as machines replace people, thus bringing the end of the current system inexorably closer.

So it's both dangerous to try to time this kind of uncertainty and, in the end, unnecessary. Crisis is coming and governments (whether left or right, populist or establishment) will respond as they always do, with easier money and more borrowing.

Here are three trends that matter vastly more than the name of the next US president:

China's Debt Has Grown $4.5 Trillion In Past 12 Months, More Than The US, Japan And Europe Combined

While concerns about China's debt load, capital flows, and depreciating currency have been pushed to the back-burner in recent months, perhaps facilitated by a welcome rebound in global inflation - perceived by markets and global central bankers that monetary policy is finally working - it is worth a quick reminder of how we got here.

First, a quick trip through memory lane to remind us how much has changed in just the past year.

In a note by Morgan Stanley's Chetan Ahya released on Sunday, the strategist reminds us that a little more than a year ago, the global economy was facing intense disinflationary pressures. Global commodity prices were declining significantly and the slowdown in China and other major commodity-producing EMs had led to some concerns that it could pull developed markets into recession and drag inflation down along with it. At the same time, in China, producer prices fell by almost 6%Y and the regime change in its currency management approach meant that China was no longer absorbing disinflationary pressures from abroad.

And while this seems like a distant memory today, thanks to China which has played a pivotal role in driving the global inflation cycle - this time on the upside - as the cyclical recovery has both lifted China's own inflation and transmitted it globally, here is how this happened: the recovery in China has been driven by yet another round of debt indulgence. Debt in China has grown by US$4.5 trillion over the past 12 months, by far the highest amount of debt creation globally as compared to US$2.2 trillion in the US, US$870 billion in Japan and US$550 billion in the euro area. Indeed, China on its own has added more debt than the US, Japan and the euro area combined.

While we have shown the IIF's forecast of Chinese debt countless times in recent months, here it is once again to put China's unprecedented debt expansion in context:

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World to face stress test as dollar Libor spikes and bond rout deepens



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Look At This Remarkable Chart As The Public Dumps Stocks! 5th Largest Outflow In The Past 10 Years!

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Posted by King World News

on Thursday, 27 October 2016 06:21

2015-Will-Be-A-Year-Of-Panic-Desperation-Radical-Change2-864x400 cFrom Jason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:  “U.S. equity funds got punched again. There was a huge outflow from domestic funds that focus on stocks, the 5th-largest since 2007. Total fund assets have grown over that time, but even if we express the outflow as a % of total assets, it was large. There is a temptation to automatically consider such an outflow to be a contrary indicator (and bullish for stocks) but the history of other large weekly outflows has been mixed….

.......continue reading HERE

also:

Gold & Central Bank Confidence



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