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Stocks & Equities

Is A Big Move In Oil Prices Due?

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Thursday, 29 June 2017 06:16

3c5ac4cb1848cb861413922ee779b90fIn options trading, a straddle is literally a sit-on-the-fence strategy. By purchasing a put and a call at the same strike (price of underlying commodity) for the same time period, an investor isn’t making a conventional directional bet; rather the investor is looking for a big move either up or down. The rub is that the big move must be greater than the sum of the two option premia or the bet goes south. But that is in the nature of the trade.

From a fundamental industry perspective (Conflicting News Keeps Oil Prices Down to a more specifically trading focus (Are Oil Markets Becoming Untradeable?) confusion has reigned supreme in the crude oil markets of late. WTI is down about 12 percent for the month of June and is set for its longest run of weekly declines since 2015. In addition, crude has been displaying considerable price volatility on a day-by-day basis, largely to the downside. So would anybody be putting on a straddle in the WTI market today? Let’s assess the situation.

Bullish considerations:

....continue reading HERE



Stocks & Equities

Central Banks Buying Stocks Have Rigged US Stock Market Beyond Recovery

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Posted by David Haggith - The Great Recession Blog

on Monday, 26 June 2017 06:49

US-Federal-Reserve-Eccles-Building-1937-500x378Central banks buying stocks are effectively nationalizing US corporations just to maintain the illusion that their “recovery” plan is working because they have become the banks that are too big to fail. At first, their novel entry into the stock market was only intended to rescue imperiled corporations, such as General Motors during the first plunge into the Great Recession, but recently their efforts have shifted to propping up the entire stock market via major purchases of the most healthy companies on the market.

Brian Rich, writing for Forbes, describes the economic illusion created by central banks buying stocks during a time of presidential prosecution:

The chaos and dysfunction message is loud, but markets aren’t hearing it. The real story is very different. Stocks continue to surge; stock market volatility continues to sit at ten–year (pre–crisis) lows. The interest rate market is much higher than it was before the election, but now quiet and stable. Gold, the fear–of–the–unknown trade, is relatively quiet. This all looks very much like a world that believes a real economic expansion is underway, and that a long–term sustainable global economic recovery has supplanted the shaky post-crisis (central bank–driven) recovery that was teetering back toward recession.

In other words, political chaos in the regime is not denting the stock market, because central banks buying stocks are eliminating volatility. Indeed, if you were to gauge the economy at this point by the US stock market, everything must be grand because the Trump Rally has been one of our most exuberant stock rallies.

According to Rich, all of that is a central-bank-created slight of hand intended to distract you from what is happening in politics and throughout the macro economy:



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Stocks & Equities

S&P 500 Snapshot: Third Consecutive Daily Loss

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Friday, 23 June 2017 07:29

The S&P opened Thursday above Wednesday's close and rose for the first couple of hours. It was flat for the remainder of the day until dropping within the last hour. The index ended the day with a loss of 0.05%, its third consecutive daily loss.

A Perspective on Drawdowns

Here's a snapshot of record highs and selloffs since the 2009 trough.

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Here is a more conventional log-scale chart with drawdowns highlighted....continue reading HERE



Stocks & Equities

More Fluctuations Along New Record Highs, Will Stocks Continue Higher?

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 22 June 2017 06:52

Our intraday outlook is bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.3% and +0.7% on Wednesday, as investors continued to hesitate following recent volatility. The S&P 500 index has reached new all-time high at the level of 2,453.82 on Monday following breakout above its short-term consolidation along the level of 2,420-2,440. It is currently trading 0.7% below that new record high. Stocks have rebounded strongly after their mid-May quick two-session sell-off and continued over eight-year-long bull market off 2009 lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached yet another new all-time high at the level of 21,535.03 on Tuesday. The technology Nasdaq Composite was relatively stronger than the broad stock market yesterday, as it gained 0.7%. However, it continued to trade well below its June 9 high. The nearest important support level of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,430-2,435, marked by Monday's daily gap up of 2,433.15-2,441.79. The next level of support is at 2,415-2,420, marked by some recent local lows. The support level is also at 2,400-2,410, marked by the May 25 daily gap up of 2,405.58-2,408.01, among others. On the other hand, level of resistance is at 2,450-2,455, marked by new all-time high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see overbought conditions and negative technical divergences. The S&P 500 index is trading within its two-week-long consolidation again, as we can see on the daily chart:

1

Click Charts For Larger Versions

More Fluctuations?



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Stocks & Equities

Small-Cap Mining Stocks, Big-Time Opportunity

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Wednesday, 21 June 2017 07:24

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Last month I told you about the upcoming rebalance of the hugely popular VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ), and how it would distress shares of junior, small-cap mining stocks. I said then that the rebalance could create some excellent opportunities for astute investors to accumulate high-quality, well-managed producers at discount prices.

That day has finally arrived, bringing with it a tsunami in the junior resource space, as I told Collin Kettell on Palisade Radio the week before. It’s a buyer’s market—if you know what you’re looking for. The last time the GDXJ underwent a rebalance of this magnitude was in December 2014, so I see this as a rare event savvy investors shouldn’t miss out on.

But first a reminder of what’s been happening with the GDXJ. Basically, it had become too massive for its underlying index—composed mostly of Canadian junior gold producers—with assets rising close to $5.5 billion earlier this year, up from $1 billion only last year. 

Mo Money Mo Problems



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