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Stocks & Equities

VIX Update: Has Volatility Bottomed?

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Posted by The VIX Channel

on Wednesday, 08 February 2017 06:32

Summary

- Even after a small gain last week, the VIX is still near its lows.

- Long and short VIX strategies both have arguments in their favor.

- A Long VIX bias may be warranted, but active risk management is a must.

- Investors need to be nimble to take advantage of VIX spikes and switch to a short bias.

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Stocks & Equities

Major Inflection Point Coming

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 06:30

Fund manager John Hussman is always good for dramatic charts. Here’s a recent one:

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This ratio is even scarier than it looks, says Hussman:



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Stocks & Equities

When Did The Fed Start Buying Equities? - Indications Are When 'Taper' Ended!

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Posted by Gordon Long

on Friday, 27 January 2017 06:10

43552 aWe see the forensic "finger prints" all over the economic and financial data that the Federal Reserve through a proxy likely Citadel Capital (or the Fed's CBOE Volume Options Agreement) has highly likely been buying the US equity market since its QE 3 "TAPER" ended in October 2014. We do know for a fact that the BOJSNB, PBOCNorwegian and other central banks have been doing this as matter of normal monetary policy for some time and that 80% of all these central banks said they plan on buying more stocks this year. Why not the Federal Reserve? To see the forensic economic evidence more clearly, consider the following US indicators:

Ratio of Capital Goods To Consumer Production

Pater Tenebrarum via Acting-Man.com points out, the ratio of capital goods to consumer goods production is a reflection of the policy-driven credit bubbles of recent decades. We have annotated his chart below to show more clearly both the "control channel" underway since the Greenspan era, as well as the late 2014 QE "TAPER" ending "inflection point". Tenebrarum reports: 

Industrial Production
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Currently the ratio is in a sideways channel at an extremely high level, as strong money supply growth and credit expansion have continued almost unabated since 2008. There is a natural limit to this trend though, provided the central bank does not opt for extreme inflation (we currently assume that it won't, but this assessment may have to be changed in the future).



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Stocks & Equities

Marc Faber – If You Want To Make A Fortune In 2017, Buy These Stocks

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Report

on Thursday, 26 January 2017 07:10

Dr Marc Faber: NEW BULL MARKET 2017 . Dr. Faber is famous for his contrarian approach to investing, Marc Faber does not run with the bulls or bait the bears but steers his own course through the maelstrom of international finance markets…

Marc Faber Warns Higher Yields May Disrupt Rally Says to Sell

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Stocks & Equities

Stock Trading Alert: Uncertainty As Investors Await Series Of Quarterly Earnings Releases

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 23 January 2017 07:26

Sent to subscribers on January 23, 2017, 6:54 AM.

Briefly: In our opinion, speculative short positions are favored (with stop-loss at 2,330, and profit target at 2,150, S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook remains bearish, and our short-term outlook is bearish. Our medium-term outlook remains neutral, following S&P 500 index breakout above last year's all-time high:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): bearish
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral
Long-term outlook (next year): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes gained between 0.2% and 0.5% on Friday, extending their short-term consolidation, as investors reacted to economic data releases, Donald Trump's Presidential Inauguration, among others. The S&P 500 index continues to trade close to its January 6 new record high of 2,282.10. Generally, all three major stock market indexes extend their fluctuations along new all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average trades relatively close to round resistance level of 20,000 and the technology Nasdaq Composite has reached its new record high a week ago at the level of 5,584.26. Will the market extend its year-long medium-term uptrend even further before some more meaningful downward correction? The next possible resistance level of the S&P 500 index remains at 2,300 mark. On the other hand, the nearest support level is at around 2,255-2,260, marked by recent local lows. The next support level is at 2,230-2,240, marked by the late December local low. We can see new long-term highs within almost eight-year-long bull market from 2009 multi-year low of 666.8. However, the index extends its over month-long consolidation. It still trades along medium-term upward trend line, as we can see on the daily chart:

1

Expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly negative, with index futures currently down 0.1-0.2%, as investors take short-term profits off the table following Friday's advance. The market has retraced its Friday's move up. The main European stock market indexes have lost 0.3-0.4% so far. The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, following an overnight move down. The nearest important support level remains at 2,245-2,250, marked by previous local low. On the other hand, resistance level is at around 2,270-2,275, marked by local highs. Is this a topping pattern before downward correction of the November - December rally? Or just consolidation within an uptrend? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. The futures contract continues to trade within an over week-long consolidation along 2,260-2,270, as the 15-minute chart shows:



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