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Todd Market Forecast: The Ultimate Indicator Is In An Uptrend

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Monday, 18 September 2017 17:12

3:00 Pacific. Monday September 18, 2017

DOW + 63 on 384 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 6 on 623 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: There is not a lot to analyze about the action on Monday. We thought it might pull back a bit as a reaction to the quadruple expiration on Friday, but no such luck.

There seems to be a group of institutional investors who have missed this rally and they are in a bit of a panic mode. They feel the need to buy every dip no matter how minor. Today for instance, the S&P 500 actually went negative late in the session, but it was bought.

On a fundamental basis, there is anticipation that the recent hurricanes are going to spur buying and repair work, thus increasing corporate profits in companies like Home Depot.

GOLD: Gold was down $14. The Wall Street Journal online attributed it to strength in the greenback. I'm not sure about this. The dollar wasn't all that strong.

CHART: Sometimes analysts can over think the markets. They forget the "ultimate indicator". And what is that? Price itself. Just look at the chart. Is that an uptrend? It surely looks like it to me and it has been going on for almost a year. Yes, it's overbought, but in a bull market, it can stay that way for an extended period.

Screen Shot 2017-09-18 at 3.32.21 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Stocks & Equities

Sentiment Speaks: Either You Learn From The Events Of The Past Week, Or You Are Hopeless

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - Elliottwavetrader.net

on Monday, 18 September 2017 06:22

p032vrqhBack in mid-July, we called for the market to top within 3 weeks between 2487-2500. And, 3 weeks later, the market topped at 2490SPX within one day of the topping date we expected. And, since we struck that high, the market has followed through in an almost textbook fashion for the entire month of August, as we caught just about every twist and turn during the month.

Coming into the last week of August, we were expecting the market to drop down to support within the 2425-2430SPX region, and then rally back towards the 2465-2475 region, before it set up to drop back down to the 2400SPX region. As we now know, dropped hard and bottomed early that week at 2428SPX, and then rallied back to 2480SPX. When the market topped out at 2480 on September 1st, our expectation was that we would see a drop down to the 2400SPX region next.

While the market dropped 34 points from that level within the next trading day, when it came back up through 2460SPX I posted to all our members that we now have opened the door to the 2500-2510SPX region, rather than an immediate continuation down to the 2400SPX region. The main reason was that when the market did not follow through on our Fibonacci Pinball set up towards 2400SPX and came back up through the 2460SPX region, the market provided us with a strong warning that the downside follow through was much less likely. As of Friday, we have finally struck the 2500SPX region.



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Stocks & Equities

Bears Hoping for a September Correction Are Likely to Be Disappointed

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Posted by Chris Puplava via Financial Sense

on Friday, 15 September 2017 06:55

The S&P 500 has had quite a run since the early 2016 lows, not experiencing even a slight pullback of 5% or more, leading many to believe that the market would wobble during the seasonally weak period of August and September. Over the last twenty years, the market has rallied only 55% of the time during August and only 50% of the time during September, losing on average 1.0% and 0.80%, respectively, in those two months before strengthening into the final three months of the year.

01-seasonality-chart

 

....continue reading HERE



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The Most Hated Bull Market in History

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 14 September 2017 09:09

This is the Short version:

On the 2 hour charts I’ve spotted several small H&S bottoms building out on some of the stock market indexes. It wasn’t until Monday of this week that they began to show themselves when several broke out above their necklines. Some of these small H&S bottoms are part of a bigger pattern that has been building out for most of this year. At a minimum their price objectives should get some of the stock market indexes back up to the top of their 2016 uptrend channels.

Lets start with a 2 hour chart for the SPX which shows it gapped above its neckline on Monday of this week and closed at a new all time high today. A backtest to the neckline would come in around the 2482 area.

r1

Several weeks ago I posted this chart which was showing how the original rising wedge, blue dashed trendiness, was morphing into a bigger pattern as shown by the red circles with a symmetry false breakout of the top and bottom blue dashed rails. It’s getting pretty busy in the apex, but you can see how the small H&S bottom fits into the bigger pattern that began building out back in February of this year. If that little H&S bottom plays out it strongly suggests the SPX is going to breakout topside from that 7 month morphing rising wedge in a new impulse leg up.



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Todd Market Forecast: Change To Bullish US Dollar

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 13 September 2017 17:51

5:00pm PST Monday May 8, 2017

DOW + 39 on 13 net advances

NASDAQ COMP + 6 on172 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Stocks spent most of the day in a high level consolidation with a bias to the upside. The main catalyst for the market seemed to be the price of oil and the accompanying rally in oil stocks. The word was decreased supply worldwide although the U.S. figures didn't reflect that.

Near term setbacks aside, I continue to believe that we have unfinished business on the upside.

GOLD: Gold resumed its decline, down $6. Rising rates and a rising dollar were instrumental.

CHART One of the more bullish considerations is the fact that the U.S. rally isn't an isolated phenomenon. Stock markets around the world are rallying. We thought that perhaps the German market was leading us down in July and August, especially since seasonality was a negative, but it now looks like this market is getting back in gear with our market.

Screen_Shot_2017-09-13_at_5.12.55_PM.png

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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