Stocks & Equities

Trouble in River City

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Posted by Mark Leibovit - VR Trader

on Thursday, 12 July 2012 07:26


Things aren't looking too good in 'River City' (from 'Music Man' fame). I previously told you that I was looking for the upside gap in the S&P 500 around 1335 to be filled and that coupled with a Leibovit Negative Volume Reversal turned me cautious late last week. At that time I recommended a double-inverse ETF play for Platinum subscribers. It appears jumping back on a BUY (BULL) signal (June 29) from my previous SELL signal was premature. If the S&P 500 cannot find support here in the 1330s, I'm afraid we're looking a possible retest or break under the June 4 low at 1266.74. Volume is negative.

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Yesterday, San Bernardino (without a lot of fanfare) announced it was going to seek bankruptcy protection - the third California city to do so in the past month. Do you think the average person on the street cares or even the so-called sophisticated Wall Street trader or investor? There is an eerie complacency out there. It's really scary. Could another 'Flash Crash' be lurking around the corner? If the banks can be bailed out, why not municipalities? That must be the mentality. Bernanke and gang released the minutes of the recent Fed meeting and it showed little urgency for a QE3. The problem, of course, is that QE3 or QE10 won't solve the problem. All it will do is put more cash into the hands of the bankster vermin and drive stock prices higher. It will do little or nothing to solve the huge debt bubble and certainly won't help the arrogant sense of entitlement that exists in the this country and the Western world. Until we're ready to follow the path of Iceland and disavow the banks and the debt and, yes, that means bond holders and creditors will lose money, others will lose their homes, but until that occurs fiscal Armageddon remains waiting for us around the corner. We're seeing it the bankruptcy of American cities. We're saw it at MF Global and now at PFG. We're seeing it in frustration of our young people who can't find jobs, we're seeing it in the eyes of the baby-boomers and elderly who see much of what they've worked for and earned being taken from them. Pumping the Dow Industrials to new highs will make the fat cats feel better, but will do little to help our nation.

 Mark Leibovit's Gold Letter, # 1 Gold Timer for 10 year period & #2 Gold Timer for 2011


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Stocks & Equities

"On Friday morning I warned that a July swoon may be ahead"

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Posted by Mark Leibovit - VR Trader

on Wednesday, 11 July 2012 10:18


Looks like we experienced the both the best and worst of 'Turnaround Tuesday' yesterday and even perhaps a slice of 'Weird Wollie Wednesday' at the same time. As you know markets rallied early yesterday (actually quite sharply) following the 'expected' pattern of a rally following Monday's weakness. Then the market started to sell-off sharply which is more attuned to a 'Weird Wollie' pattern.

On Friday morning I warned that a July swoon may be ahead. Equity markets reached an overbought condition and the Fourth of July fireworks show had ended. A Leibovit Negative Volume Reversal had formed and we should be heading south to at least fill the upside gap from June 27. In the S&P 500 that would equate to 1335.00. We touched 1336.27 yesterday.

Volume is negative, but we're already approaching an oversold state. I am awaiting confirmation of a bottom before jumping back in on the long side with regard to long index ETFs, just in case this decline accelerates following somewhat the 2010 and 2011 summer patterns. Downside risk is difficult to measure during this timeframe, so we're taking it one day at a time. We took profits in our inverse S&P 500 ETF position on Monday and hesitated to jump back in that position during the Tuesday morning rally. Even so, I would have 'rung the register' with the S&P approaching the previously predicted gap. - Mark Leibovit of VRTrader

From the VRtrader.com website here is a link to World Market Indices:



Outlook for August – Investors Beware! S&P 500 Technical & Seasonal Status - by Brooke Thackray Market Letter

Investors should be cautious in August. Although it is possible for the stock market to produce a positive return, August is typically one of the weaker months of the year and is not a good time to take large risks in the stock market. This is particularly true given the current backdrop of a slowing global economy.

Last month when I was writing the June newsletter the S&P 500 was at the 1325 level. Currently we are only nominally  above this level. Although the market rallied strongly at the end of the month, it has since pulled back and sits under the resistance level in the 1350 range. If much better than expected earnings do materialize it is possible that the S&P 500 will once again challenge the 1400 level. Currently, analysts are expecting a decrease in earnings of 1.8% this quarter (Bloomberg). Investors should note that even if earnings do be beat their estimates by a small amount, the market will probably maintain a neutral bias, or even slightly negative bias. When the expectations are so low, just meeting expectations is not good enough.
August and September tend to be weak months and from a seasonal basis it does not typically pay to take large investment risks. Investors should maintain a cautious stance in the market at this time. Investors should focus on investing in the defensive sectors of the market. Assuming that Europe continues to muddle through (a good assumption), and the earnings numbers are not much better than expected, the market will be in trouble. Recently, the economic numbers have been getting weaker, which will leave little to prop up the markets. If the S&P 500 is not able to stay firmly above the 1350 level, there is a strong likelihood that the S&P 500 will challenge the 1250 level.
.....read much more 


Stocks & Equities

"Stocks are poised for another quick selloff"

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Posted by Jeff Clark - Growth Stock Wir

on Tuesday, 10 July 2012 08:06

Put Your Stock Market Shopping List Together Right Now

Stocks have gone nowhere over the past year.  

The S&P 500 closed yesterday just about where it was on July 10, 2011. So buy-and-hold investors have little to show for their efforts.

Traders, on the other hand, have had plenty of chances to profit. You just had to pick the right time to buy and have your shopping list ready ahead of time…

Last year, for example, we pointed out several buying opportunities herehere, and here. Each of those buy points came on the heels of sharp market selloffs and resulted in immediate 7%-20% gains. But you had to act fast. And you had to be ready BEFORE the market sold off.

Now, I'm telling you again – get ready.

Stocks are poised for another quick selloff. And if history repeats, any sharp decline in July could lead to a late-summer rally. Take a look at this chart of the S&P 500…


The blue circles show the similarity between the action over the past month and that of July 2011. The red line marks the key support level at 1,275.

At the very least, stocks should come back down and retest the early June low at about 1,275. Right now, it looks like that level will hold, and traders should get ready to buy at 1,275. But it all depends on how a handful of technical indicators look when we get to that point.

For example, the McClellan Oscillator – which was overbought last Thursday and hinted at a strong decline – has fallen into neutral territory. Another 50-point drop or so in the S&P 500 should be more than enough to push the Oscillator into "oversold" territory and signal the potential for a rebound. Other indicators show the same thing. But we won't know for sure until we reach that point.

The only thing we do know for sure is last year, the biggest gains from "rebound rallies" happened in the first few days of the rally. Traders who didn't prepare ahead of time got left behind.

Even though the market appears poised for a sharp decline over the next week or two, now is the time to get ready for an imminent rally phase.

Don't buy anything yet – just get your list together. I'll let you know when I think the time is right to go shopping.

Best regards and good trading, 

Jeff Clark

Further Reading:

Last month, Jeff told readers to buy into a down market. Traders who followed his advice are already up 7%.

And just two weeks ago, he said oil stocks were setting up for a quick bounce. "They're brutally oversold," Jeff wrote. "And they're trading at dirt-cheap valuations we haven't seen in years." Since then, oil is up 6%. Read more about this trade here: A New Buy Signal for Oil Stocks.


Stocks & Equities

Most Accurate Stock Market Predictions – Next Major Move

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Posted by Chris Vermulen - GoldandOilGuy.com

on Monday, 09 July 2012 07:26

The term Stock market predictions is a very controversial topic and does seem to give off a negative/non-credible overtone to most traders, investors and the general public. We all know you cannot predict the market with 100% certainty, but knowing that you can still predict the market more times than not if done correctly. Keep in mind that the term “market prediction” is also known as a market forecast or technical analysis outlook and is nothing more than a estimated guess of where the price for a specific investment is likely to move in the coming minutes, hours, days, weeks and even months.

Getting back on topic, this report clearly shows how the US dollar plays a dominant role in the price of other investments. Understanding how to read the Dollar Index will make you a better trader all around when trading stocks, ETF’s, options or futures.

SP500 Stock Market predictions – 10 Minute Chart:
These charts clearly show the inverse relationship between the stock market and the dollar index. Knowing how to read charts (candle sticks, chart patterns, volume etc…) is not enough to give you a winning edge. You must also understand inter-market analysis as all markets are linked together in some way and the dollar plays a major role in where stock prices will move next. Review the charts and comments below on how I came up with my stock market prediction and trade idea.


Gold Market Prediction – 10 Minute Charts
Gold is another investment which is directly affected by the price of the dollar. Review charts for more details.


Long Term Stock Market Forecast:
The weekly dollar chart is VERY IMPORTANT to watch as a short term trader and long term investor because trend changes in the dollar means you open positions will also likely change direction.

So, if we apply technical analysis to the dollar chart as seen below. You will notice we are able to create a market forecast and predict roughly where price is likely to move and how long it should take to get there. If the dollar can break above the red resistance level then we can expect a rally for 4 – 8 weeks and a price target around the 87-88 level.

If this is the case then stocks and commodities would likely do the inverse price action and move lower, sharply lower…


Stock Market Predictions & Gold Market Forecast Conclusion:

In short, the next weekly candle stick on the dollar chart could be a game changer for those who are long the overall stock market.

I will admit that the current market conditions are not easy to trade because of all the headline news rolling out of Europe each week along with economic data. And I feel as though we have been tip toeing through a mine field for the past 12+ months waiting for extremely negative news are extremely positive news to trigging a wave of buying or selling that will make our jaw drop, but it has yet to happen. Remember always use stops and don’t get over committed in a headline driven market.

If you would like to receive my free weekly analysis like this, be sure to opt-in to my list:www.GoldAndOilGuy.com

Chris Vermeulen




Stocks & Equities

Stock Market Update

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Posted by Don Vailoux

on Friday, 06 July 2012 05:19

U.S. software stocks are about to enter a period of seasonal strength. The North American Technology-Software Index has a period of seasonal strength from the first week in July to the last week in September. Average gain per period during the past eight periods was 9.0 per cent. The trade was profitable in six of the past eight periods. What are prospects this July?

The reason for seasonal strength in the sector is anticipation of revenue and earnings gains related to new consumer electronic products expected to launch prior to the Christmas shopping season. Companies are busy developing compatible software prior to launch of the next generation of new products. This year, the launch of next generation products prior to the Christmas shopping season is exceptional. Most notable are the expected launch of iPhone5 in October and the official launch of Microsoft’s Windows 8 operating system as early as this month.

Three North American software Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) trade on U.S. exchanges. The most actively traded ETF is the Software iShares (IGV US$62.18). Management Expense Ratio is 0.48 per cent. The portfolio holds fifty four actively traded U.S. software stocks listed on U.S. exchanges. The second most actively traded ETF is PowerShares Dynamic Software Portfolio ETF (PSJ US$26.65). Management Expense Ratio is 0.60 per cent. The portfolio holds 31 software stocks. The third ETF is SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF (XSW US$61.49). Management Expense Ratio is 0.35 per cent. The portfolio holds 138 software stocks.

Investors can choose an ETF based on their risk/reward profile. The two most actively traded ETFs are fully diversified with well-known big cap software stocks. Top ten holdings in Software iShares are Microsoft, Oracle, SalesForce.com, Intuit, Adobe Systems, Citrix Systems, Red Hat, Symantec, CA and AutoDesk. The SPDR S&P Software & Services ETF focuses on small and mid-cap holdings with greater price volatility.

On the charts, Following is an eight year seasonality chart on the S&P North American Technology-Software Index. 

clip image008_thumb4

Software iShares (IGV $62.18) has a positive and improving technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $56.97 and resistance is at $66.69. Units moved above their 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive last week.\

clip image006_thumb4

Preferred strategy is to accumulate software ETFs and related equities at current or lower prices for a seasonal trade expected to last until the end of September.

Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors, commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. He is also a research analyst at Horizons Investment Management, offering research on Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC-T). All of the views expressed herein are his personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment. Horizons Investment is the investment manager for the Horizons family of ETFs. Daily reports are available athttp://www.timingthemarket.ca/


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