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Stocks & Equities

Dow Breaks Major Trend Line

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Posted by ChartoftheDay.com

on Friday, 09 November 2012 07:31

As a result of a host of concerns (looming fiscal cliff, European debt crisis, slowing Chinese economy, geopolitical issues, etc.), the Dow has pulled back from its post-financial crisis high of one month ago. For some perspective, today's chart illustrates the overall trend of the stock market (as measured by the Dow) since 2003. As today's chart illustrates, the post-financial crisis rally was especially sharp during its first two years. Since then, the rally slowed but continued to trade above support (green line) -- until now. The sharp selloff over the past two days has resulted in the Dow breaking below its 3.5-year, upward sloping support trendline.

Notes:
Where's the Dow headed? The answer may surprise you. Find out right now with the exclusive & Barron's recommended charts of Chart of the Day Plus.

20121109

<a href="http://www.chartoftheday.com/">Chart of the Day</a>

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Stocks & Equities

Investors Fear More than Just a ‘Fiscal Cliff’

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Posted by Rick Ackerman & Keith Fitz-Gerald

on Thursday, 08 November 2012 07:30

stockMarketCrashThe Dow plunged 313 points yesterday, but don’t believe news media reports that it was the nearness of the “fiscal cliff” that caused the selloff. What spooked investors is a bigger picture that recognizes the economically catastrophic implications of a second Obama term.  To be clear, there is nothing Romney could have done to avoid the deflationary Depression that lies ahead.  However, a Romney presidency might have at least served as a reality check, delaying the onslaught of hard times for perhaps long enough to allow Americans to put their financial houses in order before austerity hits with the force of an earthquake, as it has in Europe.

.....read more HERE

Here's What President Obama's Win Means For 
Your Money

by Keith Fitz-Gerald , Chief Investment Strategist, Money Morning

As was widely expected leading up to the election, all of the major averages got slammed in early trading on news of President Obama's victory. Just over an hour into yesterday's session, the Dow dropped 262.51, the S&P 500 tumbled 27.58 and the tech- laden Nasdaq fell 59.55. Oil tanked 2.95% and $2.62 per barrel to $86.08 while 10-year bonds saw yields plummet 6.20% to 1.63%.

O-bummer.

There is a bright side, though. Now that all the hoopla is over, investors can get down to business. 

Here's what I'm expecting:

......read it all HERE

US stocks will fall 20-50% after Obama re-election warns Dr Marc Faber

Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom Boom, & Doom Report, told Bloomberg Television’s Trish Regan and Adam Johnson on ‘Street Smart’ today that ‘Mr. Obama is a disaster for business and a disaster for the United States’ and that he ‘thought that the market on his reelection should be down at least 50 per cent.’

Faber also said ‘I doubt [Obama] will stay at the presidency for another four years. I think there will be so many scandals’ and that investors should ‘buy themselves a machine gun.’

.....read the 8 paragraph article HERE

 

 

 



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Stocks & Equities

Post-Election Trading Made Simple

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Posted by Chris Vermulen - GoldandOilGuy.com

on Wednesday, 07 November 2012 12:40

Over the past two months shares of gold (NYSE:GLD) and Apple (NASD:AAPL) have had a sizable bite taken out of their share price. Active traders along with the longer term investors have had a wild ride this fall watching these investments slide to multi month lows. The big question is when will gold and apple shares bounce?

Here we are again with another election behind us and Barack Obama in the White House again. Many think this means four  years of the same thing… Printing, Inflation and higher stock prices.

Is this good or bad for Americans or the world for that matter? I doubt it, but who really knows and who cares because there is nothing anyone can do about it now. So buckle up your seat belt and focus on trading and investing with major trend both within the United States and abroad using exchange traded funds.

Currently the broad stock market and commodities are in a full blown bull market so the focus should be to buy the dips until proven wrong. Below are some charts showing the important breakout levels for Apple, metals, oil and key indexes like the Russell 2000.

Be aware that during pullbacks which last more than a month which is the market has done, some of the biggest drops in price happen just before prices bottom… Scaling into positions is the key to minimal draw downs.


Russell 2000 Small Cap Index – IWM

Small cap stocks typically lead the broad market in both directions. They are the first to rally and the first to rollover and sell off. The major indexes like the DOW, SP500 and NYSE have not formed clean chart patterns which is why my focus is on the Russell 2000. Small cap stocks are now showing a rising relative strength compared to the SP500 large cap stocks and this is very bullish for stocks in general. The best way to trade this index is through the exchange traded funds IWM and TNA.

RutBreakout

 

Ed Note: Click HERE to view 4 other charts and the Post-Election Trading Breakout Summary

 

 

 



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Stocks & Equities

3 Hot Stocks To Be Fearless With

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Tuesday, 06 November 2012 08:20

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

This week's Trading Lesson
Here is an excerpt from my upcoming book, The Mindless Investor, How to Make Money in the Market by Overcoming Your Common Sense. This piece is from the chapter, Be Fearless:

I think many traders have a hard time believing they can make money by buying a stock and waiting. Most of us are not taught to make our money work for us but instead that we must work for our money. Go to a job, put in the time and you get a paycheque. Work hard, and your paycheques will grow. But the thought that you can make money by putting your feet up is a difficult thing to grasp.

With that mental programming, most of us have difficulty holding on to our strong stocks and letting the profits grow. If we buy a stock at $1 and it goes up to $1.20 in a couple of days, we are likely to sell. In some ways we think of this fast return as good luck, not much different than buying a winning lottery ticket. We have a fear that someone is going to figure out that we have benefited from a mistake, and so we better get out now before we get discovered.

This thinking is strengthened when we take a trade that's less than ideal and it goes down as quickly as it went up. If we take a marginal trade we should expect marginal results, but somehow we only remember the negative feeling of watching a paper profit turn into a loss. We tell ourselves that next time we will sell at the first sign of weakness and crystallize the gain. Avoiding pain is human nature.

Our next trade is of higher quality but we sell it on a short-term weakness and lock in a quick but relatively small profit. While lost in self-congratulations we realize that someone named Murphy is writing the laws of trading, and we watch the stock march ever higher with us eating the stock's dust. We have jumped off a high-speed bus that is headed for Profit City.

What is behind this destructive behaviour? It's that deep-rooted emotional response to danger that keeps us out of trouble but also makes us avoid a greater feeling of fulfilment.
Fear is what makes us sell our winners too early and hold our losers too long.
The best traders are not afraid of holding on to strong stocks, they are afraid of holding on to losing stocks. What do you do when you trade?

If you are a normal human being, you do the opposite of what the pros do. Think about the last loser that you owned. As the stock fell lower and lower, what was it that you told yourself over and over?

"It'll bounce back eventually. I'll just be patient."

What your subconscious mind was really saying was, "It's much too painful to sell this loser and see that loss of my hard-earned capital. I'll hold on with the hope that it goes back to what I paid for it and then I'll sell." And of course, it continued lower because there was something wrong with the company and it deserved to go lower.
So what can we do to fight our destructive minds? How can we program ourselves to hold on to our winners and dump the losers? How can we trade without fear? Here are three of my seven criteria for fearless trading:

Only Trade Quality
Our fears are confirmed when we enter marginal trades. If you only trade the best opportunities, you will trade less but you will have greater success. This will put you on the road to fearless trading and help you simplify your trading approach. Write down your rules and do nothing unless every rule is satisfied. When you consider a stock, look for a reason to avoid the trade. If you can't find one, then you have a trade worth taking.

Buy with Confidence
The rules that you trade with have to have a foundation of success. You have to believe in your rules or you won't believe in holding the stock through the shakeout periods in the longer-term up trend. Analyze and test the strategy until you have proven to yourself that it works. Then trade it slowly without a lot of risk, so you can gain a greater level of confidence that it works.

Don't Watch the Scoreboard
Sports fans don't spend a lot of time watching the scoreboard during a game. It only matters when the game is over. In trading, the scoreboard is the profit and loss figure for your account. If you focus on the scoreboard, it is likely that you will lose sight of what's happening in the game. As a technical trader, all that matters to me is what the chart is telling me.

STRATEGY OF THE WEEK

With the US election on Tuesday, the market has been very quiet recently with few investors willing to make a significant move ahead of the vote. Tonight, I ran a Market Scan on Stockscores with the following settings:

Sentiment Stockscore > 60
Breakout through 80 day Resistance
Volume above 20 day average
Trades > 250

Here are some of the stocks that I feel have good charts:

STOCKS THAT MEET THAT FEATURED STRATEGY

1. AIQ
AIQ is making a cup and handle pattern breakout with increasing volume over the past few days. Support at $1.33.

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 7.48.14 AM

2. MSPD
I featured MSPD in the daily newsletter two days ago, it has been moving higher through resistance from an optimistic chart pattern. Support at $3.34.

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 7.48.31 AM

3. T.RIM
T.RIM (RIMM on Nasdaq) is shaping up as a nice long term downtrend reversal pattern. Support at $7.55.

Screen Shot 2012-11-06 at 7.48.45 AM

Stockscores Mindless Investor Book Launch Special Event
Calgary Monday Nov 12 6:30 - 8:30 pm
Vancouver Tuesday Nov 13 6:30 - 8:30 pm
Click here for information and to register for this free event

Join me as I show some of the ways I use Stockscores.com to pick and track stocks and ETFs. This is an informal evening focused on the analysis of the current market and a hunt for ways to make money from it. Free to attend and copies of my new book, The Mindless Investor, will be available for purchase for $30. Please register to attend and let us know how many copies of the book you wish to purchase in the comments section of the registration page so we can bring enough copies.

Stockscores Trader Training
The 12 week Stockscores Investor and Stockscores Active Trader training programs start with the live Foundation class on November 24th in Vancouver and November 25th in Calgary. Click here to visit the information page.

Live Trading Day
For those who have completed the StockSchool Pro, Investor or Active Trader classes in the past, I will be doing a live trading day in Calgary on Monday November 26th. Watch me trade live and learn the processes I go through to find day and swing trading strategies. Emailtylerb@stockscores.com for more information.

Stockscores Market Minutes Video
Traders are challenged with finding the right stocks at the right time. The Stockscores Market Scan tool allows you to scan the market using a wide range of filters. In this week's Market Minutes video, I demonstrate how to use it. You can watch this week's video on Youtube by clicking here. To receive email alerts any time I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores channel atwww.youtube.com/stockscoresdotcom.

References

  • Get the Stockscore on any of over 20,000 North American stocks.
  • Background on the theories used by Stockscores.
  • Strategies that can help you find new opportunities.
  • Scan the market using extensive filter criteria.
  • Build a portfolio of stocks and view a slide show of their charts.
  • See which sectors are leading the market, and their components.

    Disclaimer
    This is not an investment advisory, and should not be used to make investment decisions. Information in Stockscores Perspectives is often opinionated and should be considered for information purposes only. No stock exchange anywhere has approved or disapproved of the information contained herein. There is no express or implied solicitation to buy or sell securities. The writers and editors of Perspectives may have positions in the stocks discussed above and may trade in the stocks mentioned. Don't consider buying or selling any stock without conducting your own due diligence.

 

 

 

 



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Stocks & Equities

The Bottom Line: Downside Risk is Limited - Upside Above Average

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Posted by Don Vialoux - Mark Leibovit Comment

on Monday, 05 November 2012 09:28

"The entry point for the seasonal trade in North American equity markets is here"

The Bottom Line

The entry point for the seasonal trade in North American equity markets is here. The TSX Composite Index reached a seasonal low on October 15th at 12,132. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a seasonal low on Thursday October 25th at 13,040. Downside risk is limited and upside potential into early next year is above average. Average gain during an election year by the S&P 500 Index from November 1st to February 1st is 5.0%. Preferred strategy is to accumulate equities and Exchange Traded Funds with favourable seasonality at this time of year that already are showing technical signs of performance or outperformance relative to the market (S&P 500 Index for U.S. markets or TSX Composite Index for Canadian markets). Sectors include agriculture, forest products, transportation, industrials, steel, coal, mines & metals, consumer discretionary, home builders, semiconductors, China and Europe.

Mark Leibovit Comment: "Back to the stock market, we could very well see a rally to test or even see new highs because it is either that or 'blood in the streets'. High unemployment, a still imploding Europe and now recovery from a major national natural disaster are all potential bullish factors if you're a contrarian. But, if it comes (50/50 in my opinion), I would not wear out my welcome".

The TSX Global Metals and Mining Index added 50.55 points (5.48%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Short term momentum indicators are trending up. The Index remains above its 20 and 50 day moving averages and moved above its 200 day moving average on Thursday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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Lumber gained another $2.42 (0.76%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Lumber remains above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains positive

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The Agriculture ETF slipped $0.14 (0.27%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support has formed at $50.80 and resistance is at $53.19. Units trade above their 200 day moving average, but fell below their 20 and 50 day moving averages on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season”!

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Other News

The election on Tuesday is the primary focus for equity markets this week. Equity markets are expected to remain virtually unchanged on Monday and Tuesday prior to the news. Polls show the Presidential race at a dead heat. If results come down to the winner of Ohio, a final selection of the next President may be delayed until November 16th when votes triggered by absentee ballots will have been counted. Polls also suggest that Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives and Democrats will maintain control of the Senate. A Congressional stalemate is expected to continue after the election. Changes in Congress likely will impact attempts to forestall the “Fiscal Cliff”. Weather conditions (possible Nor-Easter on Election Day) could influence attempts to “get out the vote”.

The VIX Index slipped 0.22 (1.24%) last week despite a gain of 0.90 on Friday. Intermediate trend is up.

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.....read more about economic news this week & vuew 47 charts HERE

 

 



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