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The Importance of Trading Less - Strategy of the Week

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 05:54

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perspectives commentary

In this week's issue:

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What are the Economics of Stock Trading?

Nov 15, 2017 6:00 PM PST

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Whether you are a long term investor or a short term active trader, it is essential to understand the economics of trading. How should you measure your returns? What are the risks? How much capital does it take to trade? What are the potential gains? These questions and more will be addressed during this webinar. I will show performance data for my day, swing and position trading over the last few months.

Stockscores Market Minutes – Expect Failure

Whether it is the development of a new trading strategy or just the trades you make day to day, expect to fail often. Trading is simple, but it is not easy. Learn from your mistakes and don't let failure stop you from achieving success. That plus this week's Market Analysis and the trade of the week on RLOG.

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Trader Training – The Importance of Trading Less

It's better to miss a good trade than to take a bad one. Missing a good trade doesn't deplete your capital-it only fails to add to it. A bad trade will not only reduce the size of your trading account, it will eat up emotional capital and your confidence. 



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Stocks & Equities

Trump rally alive and well

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Posted by Craig Erlam -Marketpulse.com

on Friday, 10 November 2017 06:03

stocks11817One year on and the Trump rally is very much alive and well; U.S. dollar consolidating but further gains may lie ahead; GBP under pressure as May’s problems mount; Oil inventories eyed as oil rally continues.

One year on from Donald Trump’s election victory and U.S. equity markets are on course to open near record highs once again, having made stunning gains over the last 12 months – more than 30% in the case of the Dow and Nasdaq.

While many may claim that Trump’s achievements to date equate to very little given his difficulties repealing and replacing Obamacare, slower than expected progress on tax reform and minimal detail on fiscal stimulus, investors have clearly not been deterred as is evident by staggering gains in U.S. stocks. Of course, much of this may still be conditional on the President delivering on the latter two in particular and some is also attributable to the rally in global equity markets over the same period, but the Trump trade is clearly still alive and well.

This is despite the fact that the Fed has raised interest rates three times since the election and is likely to do so again next month, which many will have believed could have threatened the economic recovery and with that, the stock market rally. That is clearly not the case and with the economy having now come off two quarters of around 3% annualized growth, one may wonder whether there is any need for the spending element of the President’s plan to revive the economy. There certainly doesn’t appear to be the desire for it that we’ve seen for tax reform over the course of the year.

While political and geopolitical events have caused minor problems along the way, the rally has been very gradual and consistent with few hiccups along the way. In the absence of any major U.S. economic events this week, Trump’s tour of Asia will continue to attract the bulk of the attention, although I imagine the rhetoric coming from the meetings and press conferences will be broadly in line with what we’ve heard already. Assuming no slip ups along the way and no unexpected back and forth with North Korea – which is possible given the country is one of the main topics of conversation – there’s little reason to believe we won’t see more of the same in the markets.

USD consolidating but further gains may lie ahead



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Stocks & Equities

Negative Divergence In The Gold Stocks

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Posted by Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Thursday, 09 November 2017 07:02

After a severe selloff, precious metals have enjoyed a bit of a respite. Corrections are a function of time and/or price. The correction to the recent selloff has been more in time than price. Metals and miners have stabilized over the past nine trading days but have not rebounded much in price terms. Gold has barely rallied $20/oz while GDX and GDXJ have rebounded less than 4% and 5% respectively. In addition to the weakness of this rally, the gold stocks are sporting a negative divergence and that does not bode well for an end of the year rally.

The negative divergence is visible in the daily bar charts below. We plot Gold along with the gold stock ETF’s and are own “mini” GDXJ index. The price action in Gold since October looks constructive. The market has held its October low and the 200-day moving average. It could have a chance to reach $1300-$1310. However, the miners are saying no to that possibility. Everything from large miners to small juniors made a new low while Gold did not. The second negative divergence is in regards to the 200-day moving average.

Nov82017pms



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Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: Put Call Ratio Bullish

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 16:13

 Tuesday November 7, 2017 - Available Mon- Friday after 3:00pm PST.

DOW + 9 on 465 net declines

NASDAQ COMP - 19 on 1264 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: The market mostly slipped on Tuesday. Earnings were the main culprit and interestingly enough, dropping interest rates were cited. The latter because supposedly lower rates pressure banks. I think this is nonsense. Stocks rallied from '09 through much of 2016 precisely because rates were near zero. But, we have to admit that the XLF or the financial ETF was down over 1% today.

Part of the problem was an overbought RSI on many indices. That can be ignored for a while, but at some point it tends to be a deterrent.

GOLD: Gold was fell back $5. The yellow metal is just waffling around right now.

CHART: The CBOE put call ratio closed above 1.0 today. When that happens, the S&P has a tendency to move higher over the next day or three.  

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BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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Stocks & Equities

Nothing Can Bring Down This Market Except . . .

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 06:02

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 6.04.43 AMThis past week, we experienced yet another horrendous terrorist attack in New York City. And, amazingly, just like what occurred after several other terrorist attacks that have been experienced over the last year, the market rallied right after the attack.

It has almost gotten to the point that people now expect the stock market to rally after a terrorist attack. Have we really become this warped in our thinking? Must we hold fast to ridiculous notions that news is what drives the stock market to the point that we have to resign ourselves to believing that the market will rally “because” of a terrorist attack? Do you not see how ridiculous these perspectives really are? 

Yet, if the market dropped after a terrorist attack, there is no question in my mind that every analyst and their mother would be absolutely certain that the market dropped specifically due to the terrorist attack. Every article the next day would have been pointing to the attack being the definitive “cause” of the market drop. And, if I then challenged this false exogenous causation theory, the response I would receive is “don’t you believe your eyes?” Yet, not a single analyst dares to suggest that the markets are rallying because of news of terrorist attacks despite seeing many instances of this occurring over the last two years. Do, they not believe their eyes? 

Are you starting to see my point yet? Do you see through the intellectual dishonesty of maintaining these old perspectives of what moves the market?

I cite this study often, but I think the recent rally after the New York attack should drive this point home even further. In August 1998, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution published an article by Tom Walker, who conducted his own study of 42 years’ worth of “surprise” news events and the stock market’s corresponding reactions. His conclusion, which will be surprising to most, was that it was exceptionally difficult to identify a connection between market trading and dramatic surprise news. Based upon Walker's study and conclusions, even if you had the news beforehand, you would still not be able to determine the direction of the market only based upon such news.

And, this past week’s stock market action further supports Mr. Walker’s conclusion. But, we have to begin to look at markets in a more intellectually honest manner in order to be able to see it. However, I am quite certain that the next time a news event coincides with a market move, all the usual suspects will be out front screaming how the news event was the certain cause of the market movement. And, therein lies the intellectual dishonesty inherent in most financial reporting and analysis today.

Price pattern sentiment indications and upcoming expectations



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