Stocks & Equities

GOLDMAN SACHS: These 16 stocks are poised to maximize tax savings and crush the market in 2018

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Posted by Businessinsider.com

on Wednesday, 21 March 2018 07:33


rtrjc46Wide-reaching corporate tax cuts have stock investors wondering which companies will benefit most. Goldman Sachs has singled out the 16 companies that offer the most reinvestment growth, a characteristic of companies that have historically outperformed the market - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

How does an investor decide which companies are poised to benefit most from sweeping tax cuts that benefit most everyone? Listen to Goldman Sachs, of course.

The firm has developed an index of stocks called the High Growth Investment Ratio Basket, which is designed to include companies whose share prices are most likely to get a boost from tax reform, given their past use of excess capital.

Goldman's basket includes not just the companies who have most heavily reinvested money into capital expenditures and research & development, but also those set to generate the highest return on it.

For context, the median stock in the index has reinvested 81% of its trailing three years of cash flow from operations, compared with just 13% for the average S&P 500 company, according to Goldman. The firm also forecasts that basket members will offer 18% cash return on capital invested, compared to just 12% for the broader benchmark.

Without further ado, here are the 16 stocks that best fit the bill, arranged in increasing order of three-year growth investment ratio:

Click HERE for Slides 1-16




Stocks & Equities

Morgan Stanley: The stock market meltup is over

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Posted by Michael Wilson via Financial News

on Wednesday, 21 March 2018 07:10

"The stock market meltup is over". There is a strong case "that January was the melt-up, or at least the culmination of it,’" says one prominent Wall Street strategist. Michael Wilson, the chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley makes his case below. Bear in mind that Martin Armstrong still expects to see Dow 35,000 plus - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

The stock meltup is over, at least that’s the prognosis of one prominent Wall Street strategist who believes the torrid January rally that gave way to a correction may have been the market’s short-term apex. The S&P 500 jumped 7.5% between the end of 2017 and Jan. 26, when it notched the last in a string of record closes at 2,872.87.

“We think January was the top for sentiment, if not prices, for the year. With volatility moving higher we think it will be difficult for institutional clients to gross up to or beyond the January peaks,” said Michael Wilson, chief U.S. equity strategist at Morgan Stanley Institutional Securities, in his weekly note on Monday. “Retail sentiment indicators also look to have peaked in January and we do not see anything on the horizon to get retail investors more bullish than they were following a tax cut.”

As a result, the much-anticipated meltup in stocks that numerous strategists had been forecasting since last year won’t likely happen in 2018, he said.

A meltup is an unexpected rise in asset prices as investors surge into the market on fear of missing out.

“When we look at our internal data combined with industry flows and sentiment, we think there is a strong case that January was the melt-up, or at least the culmination of it,” Wilson added.

One key point in Wilson’s thesis is that gross leverage by Morgan Stanley’s hedge fund clients hit an all-time high in January. Gross leverage, according to the strategist, is a good measure of investor willingness to assume risk. 


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The record was also set right before the early February “volatility shock” forced investors to scale back their exposure to risk and Wilson does not expect gross leverage to return to January levels any time in the near future. 



Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: Change To Bullish US Dollar

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 21 March 2018 06:12


Still bulllish the US Stock Market averages long and short term, Stephen changes his bearish stance to bullish on Oil and the US Dollar. While he does have some concerns about the Stock Market, he's of the view that it will power up through any problems - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

For 3:00 PM PST Tuesday March 20, 2018

DOW + 116 on 336 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 20 on 298 net declines



STOCKS: We had a bounce, but I wasn't happy with it. Breadth was atrocious. It can be straightened out, but it needs to happen fairly quickly.

One of the drags may have been Morgan Stanley's assertion that the melt up in stocks over the past year is over. That could have caused some selling and portfolio readjustments. By the way, we don't agree. This is a pause not an ending.

Another drag is probably concern over what the Fed will say in it policy statement on Wednesday about interest rate hikes.

GOLD: Gold lost $8. This time a higher dollar.

CHART: The five day moving average of the Composite Gauge is above 12.0. Generally, that is a good sign going forward.


BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



Stocks & Equities

Gold Swoons But Novo Blasts Higher

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 16 March 2018 07:30

These great charts as usual clearly show opportunities both long and short in everything from individual stocks through Commodity and Stock Market ETF's. Besides the individual stock Novo, be sure to listen to Morris's analysis of the Nasdaq Triple Bear ETF & GDXJ Short Term Chart - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):

SFS Key Charts & Video Update




Stocks & Equities

Downward Pressure Mounting

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Posted by Paul Rejczak

on Thursday, 15 March 2018 06:40

Paul Rejczak highlights the current situation in all-three stock indices and lists the support points to buy should the market should be lower today. He also analyses the high flyers Apple and Amazon and their negative trading action of the last two days - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Downward Pressure Mounting

The main U.S. stock market indexes extended their Tuesday's losses, as they closed 0.2-1.0% lower yesterday. The S&P 500 index lost 0.6% following Tuesday's bounce off resistance level at 2,800. However, it remained at the support level of last Friday's daily gap up. It currently trades 4.6% below January 26 record high of 2,872.87. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively weaker than the broad stock market, as it lost 1.0% and the technology Nasdaq Composite lost just 0.2%.

The nearest important level of resistance of the S&P 500 index is now at around 2,775-2,780, marked by yesterday's daily high. The next resistance level is at 2,790-2,800, marked by short-term local highs. On the other hand, support level is at 2,740-2,750, marked by Friday's daily gap up of 2,740.45-2,751.54. The next level of support is at 2,700-2,720, among others.

The S&P 500 index reached its record high on January 26. It broke below month-long upward trend line, as it confirmed uptrend's reversal. Then the broad stock market gauge retraced all of its January rally and continued lower. The index extended its downtrend on February 9, as it was almost 12% below the late January record high. We can see that stocks reversed their medium-term upward course following whole retracement of January euphoria rally. Then the market bounced off its almost year-long medium-term upward trend line, and it retraced more than 61.8% of the sell-off within a few days of trading. Is this just an upward correction or uptrend leading to new all-time highs? The market seems to be in the middle of two possible future scenarios. The bearish case leads us to February low or lower after breaking below medium-term upward trend line, and the bullish one means potential double top pattern or breakout above the late January high. However, the most likely scenario may be that stocks go sideways for a while, and it would be the worst future scenario:

Uncertainty Following Move Down

The index futures contracts trade 0.1% higher vs. their yesterday's closing prices, so expectations before the opening of today's trading session are slightly positive. The European stock market indexes have gained 0.2-0.3% so far. Investors will wait for some economic data announcements: Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Initial Claims at 8:30 a.m., NAHB Housing Market Index at 10:00 a.m. Will yesterday's move down continue? The S&P 500 index reached its Friday's daily gap up, which may act as a short-term support level. If the market breaks lower, it could continue towards the level of 2,700. But for now, it looks like a downward correction. So, we will likely see more fluctuations above support level of 2,750, and below resistance level of 2,800.

The S&P 500 futures contract trades within an intraday consolidation, as it retraces some of its overnight move down. The nearest important level of support is at around 2,745-2,750, marked by local low, among others. On the other hand, resistance level is at 2,775-2,785, marked by yesterday's local high. The futures contract is below its short-term downward trend line, as we can see on the 15-minute chart:



Click Chart for Larger Image

Nasdaq Remains Above 7,000 Mark



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