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Emerging Markets: Best Gains in 8 Years

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Posted by Barry Ritholtz

on Friday, 15 December 2017 06:50

Emerging Markets Shrug Off Crises For Best Gains in Eight Years

eventful

 

Straight forward:

“2017 is set to go down as the year when easy monetary policy and budding global growth came together to deliver blockbuster returns for the world’s emerging markets. Currencies and stocks in developing economies are on track for their biggest rallies in eight years as even the riskiest markets shrugged off various crises and threats to deliver gains for investors.

Bonds, too, have had a good run, with local-currency emerging-market debt returning the most since 2012 amid the loose policy environment.”

EM are still below 2007 peak . . .

....read more HERE



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Stocks & Equities

Fed Takes Action, Stock Market Topping?

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 14 December 2017 06:20

Intraday trade: Our Wednesday's intraday trading outlook was bearish. It proved partly accurate because the S&P 500 lost 0.05% following higher opening of the trading session. The index extended its short-term uptrend, as it reached new record high. There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we can see some short-term technical overbought conditions. Therefore, intraday short position is favored today. Stop-loss is at the level of 2,680 and potential profit target is at 2,640 (S&P 500 index).

Our intraday outlook is bearish again. Our short-term outlook is neutral, and our medium-term outlook is neutral:

Intraday outlook (next 24 hours): bearish
Short-term outlook (next 1-2 weeks): neutral
Medium-term outlook (next 1-3 months): neutral

The main U.S. stock market indexes were mixed between -0.05% and +0.3% on Wednesday, as investors reacted to the FOMC Rate Decision announcement. The S&P 500 index reached new record high of 2,671.88 (around 2 points above its Tuesday's record high) following interest rate hike release. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was relatively stronger than the broad stock market, as it gained 0.3%. It has reached new record high at the level of 24,666.02. The technology Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2% yesterday, remaining below its late November record high. The nearest important level of support of the S&P 500 index is at around 2,660, marked by recent daily lows. The next support level is at 2,650. The support level is also at 2,640, marked by last Friday's daily gap up of 2,640.99-2,644.10. On the other hand, resistance level is at around 2,670-2,675, marked by new all-time high. Will the S&P 500 index continue its uptrend? Or is this some topping pattern before medium-term downward correction? There have been no confirmed negative signals so far. However, we still can see medium-term technical overbought conditions along with negative technical divergences:

1

Close To Record High



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Stocks & Equities

Technically Speaking: 2700 By Christmas?

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Posted by Lance Roberts - Real Investment Advice

on Tuesday, 12 December 2017 07:59

This past weekend, I discussed the current extension of the market. To wit: 

“In the short-term, the market trends are CLEARLY bullish, very overbought, but nonetheless bullish.”

SP500-Chart3-120817

“As such, our portfolios remain ‘long’ on the equity side of the ledger…for now. “

The current momentum behind the market advance is clearly bullish, and with the “smell of tax reform” in the air, there is little to derail the bulls before year-end.

As I previously wrote, I am still somewhat suspicious of the markets going into 2018. As I laid out over the last couple of weeks, I believe the risk of “tax-related” selling is a strong possibility at the beginning of the year as portfolios lock in gains without having to pay taxes until 2019. While the risk to the overall market trend remains small, a correction of 3-5% is possible. I am still looking for the right “setup” by the end of the month to add a small “short S&P 500” position to portfolios and increase longer-duration bond exposure to hedge off some of the potential risks.



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Stocks & Equities

Merk 2018 Outlook

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Posted by Axel Merk

on Thursday, 07 December 2017 06:32

With the stock market and Bitcoin reaching all-time highs, what can possible go wrong? In offering my thoughts on 2018, I see my role in reminding investors to stress test their portfolios. Is your portfolio built of straw, sticks or brick? 

2017-12-07-pigs

First, let me allege many investors have portfolios built of straw and sticks rather than brick. How do I know this? Here’s a brief check:

 

  • If a robust portfolio is a diversified one (the only free lunch on Wall Street), then please check whether you have rebalanced your portfolio of late. If not, odds are equities have taken on an oversized portion in your portfolio, thus making it more vulnerable than you might have intended in a downturn.
  • Equities are part of the so-called risk assets in a portfolio. But what about the rest of the portfolio? Have you been chasing yield by extending duration of your fixed income portfolio? Have you accepted less creditworthy issuers? Have you been lured by the promise of higher yields by financing something in a private placement? I have news for you: without judging the merits of those investments, odds are high that the value of these investments are more correlated with risk assets than you might be aware. Read: just because the label says fixed income doesn’t mean you are diversified.  

 

Without a doubt, equities have had an extra-ordinary run. There is the view that, without a recession, you cannot have a bear market. In our analysis, that’s true for the most part – but is “for the most part” good enough? The notable exception is the Crash of 1987 where a bear market was not accompanied by a recession. In today’s context, the buy-the-dip crowd will remind you that the ’87 crash was, well, a buying opportunity. As such, if you are an asset manager interested in keeping your job, you buy. It reminds of the 1980s where buying IBM office equipment was the sure way to keep your job, as no one would question your choice. Here’s a chart that shows the S&P 500 with the percent drawdown from any peak, with recessions shaded:



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Stocks & Equities

Todd Market Forecast: The NASDAQ is Curling Up From Oversold

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Wednesday, 06 December 2017 15:07

Wednesday December 6, 2017 Available Mon- Friday after 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 40 on 443 net declines

NASDAQ COMP + 14 on 920 net declines

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM Bullish

STOCKS: Stocks meandered on Wednesday in a seemingly confused manner. We liked the fact that the high techs and the NASDAQ showed signs of life but the listed market couldn't get out of its own way.

Breadth was still not encouraging and the put call ratio remains low. Given the seasonality, it's tempting to put on a trading position, but let's hold off for now.

GOLD: Gold was up $2. Just an anemic bounce within a downtrend.

CHART: The NASDAQ Composite is just curling up from an oversold condition. This has a decent chance of projecting further strength. If this market rallies, it's unlikely that the Dow and S&P 500 will sit around.  

Screen Shot 2017-12-06 at 3.15.35 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



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