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Real Estate

Guessing Game

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 07:06

 
price-guess origOn the way up in price it was easy. Make an offer higher than list price with few conditions if any and provide the vendor with everything they wanted and voilà, you own the asset if you managed to out-guess the competitive bidders lined up on their phones. 
​Liabilities were an unimportant consideration because in a few days, a similar property would sell for even more and your balance sheet then became even more credit worthy; check and check.

On the way down, guessing the price that a vendor will agree to is still a requirement; is the vendor holding a property with too little of his own equity and perhaps reluctant to take a loss at this time, or is the property being offered for the first time in let's say the last decade? A single family detached house in Vancouver has increased in price by over 120% in the last 10 years (over 160% in Toronto). The vendor's equity position is an important clue in the guessing game.

Is the vendor attempting to sell in order to repurchase in the same market? That would suggest an end price is required CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE



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Real Estate

Average house prices up 3.5% in past year...

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Posted by Canadian Real Estate Association

on Thursday, 16 March 2017 10:39

The price of the average Canadian home rose up by 3.5 per cent to and average price of $519,521 in February, even as the national figures continue to be skewed by hot activity in the country's biggest market: Toronto. "That said, Greater Vancouver's share of national sales activity has diminished considerably over the past year, giving it less upward influence on the national average price," CREA said.

According to statistics released today by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national home sales were up on a month-over-month basis in February 2017.

Highlights:

  • National home sales rose 5.2% from January to February.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity in February was down 2.6% from a year earlier.
  • The number of newly listed homes was up 4.8% from January to February.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) in February was up 16% year-over-year (y-o-y).
  • The national average sale price edged up 3.5% y-o-y in February.

 

Screen Shot 2017-03-16 at 10.16.59 AM

....read more HERE



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Real Estate

Real Estate & the Financial Crisis

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 14 March 2017 07:40

Housing-Property-Real-Estate"The real estate cycle peaked and it is headed down in terms of appreciation. This is the general market and not the high-end, although that has begun to turn down in many places often due to taxation of rising regulation as in Miami or Sydney Australia."

...read the entire article HERE

....also from Martin:

Real Estate – the Faces of Buyers



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Real Estate

Real Estate: Record Toronto Highs - Soon To Hit Escape Velocity

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Friday, 10 March 2017 08:55

chart-canada 2 orig

 

Larger Chart

The chart above shows the average detached housing prices for Vancouver*, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto*, Ottawa* and Montréal* (the six Canadian cities with over a million people each) as well as the average of the sum of VancouverCalgary and Toronto condo (apartment) prices on the left axis. ​On the right axis is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of MLS® Residential Sales across Canada (one month lag).

​​In February 2017 Canada's big city metro SFD prices coiled about or slid off their near term highs except in Toronto where detached houses,town houses and condos fetched new peak prices. Anyone owning a house in the scorching hot Toronto  market is sitting on an unredeemed lottery ticket. In Vancouver scorched earth ruins are beginning to appear. Notice Calgary prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 which could be anticipating the Trumpster's U.S. energy independence.

High net worth trophy hunters have spent the last few years picking off well located SFD properties in hot markets while the hoi polloi settled for anything before being "priced out". Are they going to enjoy being "priced in"?

CMHC is not so sure. In November 2015 CMHC had a private audience in New York City and brought along a stress test of $35/bbl oil and its potential effect on Canada. I covered the bullet points here. The Department of Finance is also worried:



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Real Estate

Vancouver Housing and the Double Double Helicopter Money Drop

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Friday, 03 March 2017 08:09

chart-double-double 2 orig

CLICK CHART TO ENLARGE

The chart shows the bulls in charge prior to the 2007-2008 plunge that took the average Vancouver SFD price down $122,900, or 15.9% in 8 months (24% per year drop). The crash derailed the exponential doubling trend but after reignition prices doubled again in June of 2016 at $1,542,642 + $18,858. The next double was scheduled for around December 2021, but it is now unlikely that buyers are as fearful of missing out as they were in 1H 2016. 

...also:

In February 2017, Vancouver detached house prices added very little drama to the slump from the July peak under the heavy weight of sentiment change and sales that are 53% below their March 2016 peak. The manic detached buying spree moved prices up 21.5% per year since the JAN 2013 low. Prices now are deflating at 11.4% since the peak in July 2016. 

....read more and view chart HERE



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