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Pop Goes The Housing Boom... In Canada

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Posted by Robert Zurrer

on Friday, 16 June 2017 06:56

766147-14975422266578183Summary

China's new controls seek to slow down capital flight.

Canada's housing boom is vulnerable.

The Canadian dollar's rally is overdone.

We're headed for another housing bust. This time in Canada. And the key is China.

It's no secret that Chinese investors, seeking asylum from the slow-motion credit bust underway there, have been dumping tons of cash into Canadian real estate.

But it looks like a number of events are coming together at the same time to blow up that market before the end of 2017.

...continue reading HERE



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Real Estate

Canada 6-City Housing & the Plunge-O-Meter

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 07 June 2017 06:44

 

​The chart above shows the average detached housing prices for Vancouver*, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto*, Ottawa* and Montréal* (the six Canadian cities with over a million people each) as well as the average of the sum of VancouverCalgary and Toronto condo (apartment) prices on the left axis. ​On the right axis is the seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of MLS® Residential Sales across Canada (one month lag).
 

The Canadian Real Estate PLUNGE-O-METER

chart-plunge-o-meter 5 orig
 
The Plunge-O-Meter tracks the dollar and percentage losses from the peak and projects when prices might find support. On the price chart in the spring of 2005 there was a 4-6 month plateau period while buyers and sellers twitched like a herd. When the credit spreads narrowed and the yield curve began its journey towards inversion, the commodity stampede began.
 
 


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Real Estate

Compare Toronto & Vancouver Housing

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Tuesday, 06 June 2017 08:55

chart-compare-vancouver-toronto 6 orig

 
Single Family Detached, Town House and Condo Prices and Total Residential Listings and Sales and the Absorption Rates as well as INSIDE AIRBNB below.
 
The chart above shows the HPI® prices for Vancouver and average prices for Toronto (solid plot lines) as well as the Monthly Absorption Rate ​(MAR = Sales/Listings as dotted plot lines). 

At the old Vancouver price peak in April 2012 before Torontonians joined the party, Vancouver metro SFDs were 64% more expensive than Toronto comparables. In July 2016 at the peak of Vancouver SFD prices, they were 65% more expensive. The gap is closing quickly; it's narrowed down to 33%, and now strata prices are similar within 9% of each other.

In March 2017 the Monthly Absorption Rate based on total inventory and total residential sales hit 154% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 47%. Vancouver may have led the FOMO crowd up the ladder, but Toronto maybe sending them down the snake.

...click HERE to view attempt to visualize the distortions of the market



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Real Estate

Time To Add Housing To The Bubble List?

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Tuesday, 30 May 2017 09:52

Housing is hot again, but lately it’s been overshadowed by flashier bubbles in government debt, tech stocks and possibly cryptocurrencies. 

Still, the warning signs are spreading. Today’s Wall Street Journal, for instance, reports that homeowners are back to using their houses as ATMs: 

Homeowners Are Again Pocketing Cash as They Refinance Properties

Americans refinancing their mortgages are taking cash out in the process at levels not seen since the financial crisis.

Nearly half of borrowers who refinanced their homes in the first quarter chose the cash-out option, according to data released this week by Freddie Mac. That is the highest level since the fourth quarter of 2008.

The cash-out level is still well below the almost 90% peak hit in the run-up to the housing meltdown. But it is up sharply from the post-crisis nadir of 12% in the second quarter of 2012.

In a cash-out refi, a borrower refinances an existing mortgage with a new one, typically at a lower borrowing cost, that has a higher principal balance than the existing one. This allows the homeowner to pay off the old mortgage and still have cash left over for other uses.

The growing popularity of cash-out refis has helped buoy refinance activity. After booming for several years, demand for refinance mortgages had begun to slow as the Federal Reserve began increasing short-term interest rates and longer-term bond yields moved higher.

Mortgage-refis



Read more...

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Housing Starts City+Prov with Census Overlay

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 17 May 2017 06:32

starts

Larger Chart

NOTE: The chart below shows the actual annual totals count from 1956 through 2016.

​The 2017 data points on the chart are derived from the "annualized" provincial data set in the charts above and are therefor a projection of what year end 2017 might look like.

.....read more HERE including City, Provincial charts broken down

...related: Toronto, Hamilton and Victoria push Canada to another record on house prices



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