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Real Estate

Housing Starts City+Prov with Census Overlay

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 17 May 2017 06:32

starts

Larger Chart

NOTE: The chart below shows the actual annual totals count from 1956 through 2016.

​The 2017 data points on the chart are derived from the "annualized" provincial data set in the charts above and are therefor a projection of what year end 2017 might look like.

.....read more HERE including City, Provincial charts broken down

...related: Toronto, Hamilton and Victoria push Canada to another record on house prices



Real Estate

Canada 6-City Housing Prices & the Plunge-O-Meter

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 10 May 2017 07:58

chart-canada 4 orig

​​In April 2017 Canada's big city metro SFD prices coiled about or slid off their near term highs except in Ottawa and Montreal where detached houses fetched new peak prices. Anyone owning a detached house in the scorching hot Toronto and Vancouver markets is sitting on an unredeemed lottery ticket. 

In Calgary prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 as the oil majors head for blacker fields; big money is fleeing Canada (and has been for nearly 20 years) and on the street, Calgary buyers are avoiding condo units in favour of townhouses and detached properties. 

....read more HERE 

Screen Shot 2017-05-10 at 7.33.40 AM

....read more HERE



Real Estate

Property Bubbles Everywhere As If It Were 2007 Again

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Posted by MarketViews

on Wednesday, 03 May 2017 07:09

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We are going to focus this week on two stories from the property market; one in Canada and one back home here in the UK. Property market analysis is not exactly the main focus of our day job, but these stories may well have important implications for financial markets, which of course is what our day job is all about.

It is no secret with our readers that we have had a bearish fundamental bias for quite some time now. We have tried our very best to supress these bearish feelings as financial prices move further into bubble territory supported by extraordinary central bank policies and also the activities of price insensitive buyers (central banks, companies buying their own shares and index providers). However, we do believe that these forces will ultimately dissipate and that there will one day be another bear market.

Nobody knows what will be the visible trigger or triggers for the next bear market (academics are still unsure of the cause of the 1987 stock market crash!). We still look back at 2007 and pinpoint the collapse of two highly leveraged Bear Sterns hedge funds in June of that year as the first visible evidence that the financial bubble was bursting (the property bubble began to burst in 2006 in the US). So, we present these two stories as evidence that leveraged speculation by unsophisticated investors is rife today, and that visible problems are emerging.

We will start this week on the story of the collapsing share price of Home Capital Group (HCG), the largest non-bank mortgage lender in Canada. The shares collapsed by over 60% last week after it emerged that the Company had arranged an emergency liquidity line via a C$1.5 billion loan facility. The reason for the liquidity need appears to be some C$600 million of deposits had been withdrawn and they had to plug the gap. As can be seen in chart 1 below, the 60% decline on Wednesday was not the start of the bear market for Home Capital Group; the shares have now fallen by 85% from the 2014 high. In our opinion, this story has an eerie parallel with Northern Rock in 2008 in the UK – a mortgage provider suffering a deposit run.

Chart 1 – Home Capital Group share price

c1

...continue reading HERE



Real Estate

Canada 6-City Housing Prices & the Plunge-O-Meter

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Posted by Brian Ripley's Canadian Real Estate Charts

on Wednesday, 26 April 2017 07:07

chart-canada 3 orig-1

larger chart

In March 2017 Canada's big city metro SFD prices coiled about or slid off their near term highs except in Toronto where detached houses, town houses and condos fetched new peak prices; Vancouver strata prices also hit new highs as well. Strata is the new Canadian "can-do" "must-do" "will-do" affordability metric.

Anyone owning a house in the scorching hot Toronto  market is sitting on an unredeemed lottery ticket. In Vancouver scorched earth ruins are beginning to appear. In Calgary prices are labouring under the new Energy Sector 2.0 as the oil majors head for blacker fields; big money is fleeing Canada (and has been for nearly 20 years) and on the street, Calgary buyers are shunning strata units in favour of detached properties. 

...read more HERE

The Plunge-O-Meter is a fantasy model based simply on the current snapshot of how much of the correction has already occurred and if the rate of change continues at the same tempo. 



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Real Estate

The Housing Bubble Is Back

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Wednesday, 26 April 2017 06:59

Last week I ran into a friend whom I’d been worrying about. He’s a real estate appraiser and his work had been drying up as interest rates rose and homeowners stopped refinancing their mortgages. 

But now he’s back to being happily swamped because instead of refinancing, everyone is buying — often, he says, for above the asking price. 

A couple of days later my wife and I were at a slide show put on by friends just back from New Zealand. They’d heard that a neighbor was thinking about selling his house and on an impulse made him an offer. He accepted, and our friends became instant homeowners. 

The very next day my wife’s father called to say that the company running a gas station next to his house wants to expand in his direction. They made him an unsolicited – and very generous — offer, which he accepted. 

Then, I did an interview with Gordon T. Long’s Macro Analytics website in which Gordon told the following story: 

My brother just sold one of his properties in Toronto [Ontario]. He had bidding war with 11 bidders so he demanded cash. Several of the Chinese buyers were on the phone overnight raising the money, which they got. My brother’s still partying after that sale. 

It definitely feels like the housing bubble is back. Here’s part of a (factual rather than anecdotal) overview of the subject from Charles Hugh Smith:

Housing’s Echo Bubble Now Exceeds the 2006-07 Bubble Peak

If you need some evidence that the echo-bubble in housing is global, take a look at this chart of Sweden’s housing bubble.

A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class.

Take a quick look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index charts for San Francisco, Seattle and Portland, OR. Each now exceeds its previous Housing Bubble #1 peak:

San-Fran-home-prices



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