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Canada's 6 Biggest Metros & The Plunge-o-Meter

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Posted by Brian Ripley - Canadian Housing Price Charts

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 06:38

cbmp

 

 Larger Chart

In October 2017 Toronto metro SFD prices hung on to their recent correction high but after 7 months since the March 2017 spike and peak price, they have lost $206,215 or 17%

​(Plunge-O-Meter). Vancouver prices are still defying gravity; FOMO and speculative pricing is still on.

Anyone owning a detached house in the scorching hot Vancouver market is sitting on an unredeemed lottery ticket with time running out as buyers hibernate into the seasonal decline. The Bank of Canada interest rate up-moves is thinning the crowd even more.

....read more about Calgary & the CMHC

....also the plunge-0-meter:



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Real Estate

The Great Global Reflation Trade

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Posted by Sean Broderick - The Edelson Institute

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 05:09

A funny thing happened to commodities in October. They went up. All of ’em. Or nearly all. Enough that the CRB Index busted out like an escaped felon with nothing to lose.

This index tracks a basket of 19 commodities. It’s energy-heavy – 33% by weight. But it is stuffed with everything from cocoa to copper, hogs to gold.

And as a group, these things are headed higher. And higher.

sc

That tells us a lot about the global economy. And if you listen closely, the CRB’s price action will even tell you where to invest. To make handsome profits.

I’m talking about things that do well in global reflation.



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Real Estate

Emerging Market Real Estate - Montenegro on the Adriatic Coastline

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Posted by Tiho Brkan via Jordan Roy-Byrne

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 04:33

Screen Shot 2017-11-14 at 4.48.14 AMTiho travels the world for investment and real estate opportunities while managing money for high net worth investors. He is simply the best trader and investor I've ever met. He covers the Emerging Market Real Estate in Montenegro, a low tax (9%) jurisdiction on the Adriatic coastline:

Jordan: Hello again everyone. Welcome back to episode two of The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Thank you so much for joining us today. Tiho, my friend. Are you ready for episode two?

Tiho Brkan: I sure am.

Jordan: So Tiho, you are in Montenegro today. Tell us what city you are in and what else we’ll be discussing in episode two.

Tiho Brkan: Well hello to all the listeners. Yes, I’m in a beautiful little country of Montenegro on the Adriatic coastline, adjacent to a neighboring Croatia, Bosnia, Serbia, Albania, and also, across the waterways, Italy. We’ll be discussing a lot about Montenegro real estate and then we’ll get into what I think it will be a very interesting discussion between me and you Jordan, which is foreign stocks, in particular, emerging market stocks.

....continue reading HERE

or listen below: 



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Real Estate

When Canadian Homeowners Walk Away From Negative Equity, Taxpayers at Risk

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Posted by Danielle Park

on Friday, 10 November 2017 07:48

As Canadian household debt hit an all-time high in 2017 (see chart), a new study by TD Bank finds that 97% of Canadian homebuyers say they wish they’d factored in their other financial obligations when determining the mortgage they could afford. (Too bad their mortgage broker/architect/advisor was not required to factor these ‘obligations’ into their loan approval consideration either.) We are not talking about extraordinary, unexpected expenses here: 54% of those surveyed wish they’d considered property taxes and maintenance costs, and a third cite overall lifestyle expenses.

canada-household-debt-q2-2017

Lenders have been encouraged to be more lax in their approval process, because Canadian taxpayers are backstopping some 55% of Canada’s $1.6 trillion residential mortgage loans –$496 billion through CMHC, plus 90% of the $400 billion+ underwritten by Genworth MI, plus an undisclosed exposure through Canada Guarantee co-owned with the Ontario Teachers’ Pension.

Presently Canadian mortgage defaults are near cycle lows: less than .5% of residential mortgages held by the largest lenders are today considered delinquent (behind on monthly payments). But as acknowledged in the CMHC Q2 financial report:

The most important vulnerability is Canada’s high level of household debt, which could amplify the impact of an economics shock if indebted households begin to deleverage or struggle to repay their debt balances…



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Real Estate

Vancouver Real Estate Takes Off - Toronto's Grounded

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Posted by Brian Ripley - Canadian Housing Price Charts

on Thursday, 09 November 2017 06:41

chart-compare-vancouver-toronto 12 orig

 

 
At the old Vancouver price peak in April 2012 before Torontonians joined the party, Vancouver metro SFDs were 64% more expensive than Toronto comparables. In July 2016 at the peak of Vancouver SFD prices, they were 65% more expensive. 
 
The gap was closing quickly; it narrowed down to 33% in June 2017 but with the sudden late summer zeal to buy in Vancouver and sell in Toronto, the gap remains wide at 60%. Strata prices are also more expensive in Vancouver; 27% more for town-houses and 23% more for condos.

In March 2017 the Monthly Absorption Rate based on total inventory and total residential sales hit 154% in Toronto vs Vancouver at 47%. Vancouver may have led the FOMO crowd up the ladder, but Toronto is sending them down the snake.

​Here is another attempt to visualize the distortions of the market where the fundamental requirement of a yield to attract sustainable investment in real estate has been replaced with the lure of capital gains. 


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