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Gold & Precious Metals

Great Alignment – Metals – Shares – Tangible Assets

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 09 April 2018 08:49

Martin reinforces the case that it is just not time for Gold yet but that there is a necessary alignment taking place. How about this quote in Martin's answer: "99% of analysis out there on gold is just so wrong it is laughable". More from Martin below is "Understanding the Markets - R Zurrer for Money Talks

Great-Alignment

QUESTION: Hi Mr. Armstrong, I notice that the gold market and the Dow Jones they both had a high in January and since then they have been treading water, are these markets getting in sync or is just a coincidence. Also when it comes to the markets you have explained that we will always see the “if then” situation, my question is a what point do we know that this is the right time to pull the trigger on buying or selling? Thank you - NMP


ANSWER: We are not there just yet. However, we are starting the Great Alignment and this is what needs to take place as we move into the future. The 99% of analysis out there on gold is just so wrong it is laughable. They typically call the dollar to collapse and gold will soar. They look at historical charts without understanding the economics behind them. Yes, you see gold rally between 1930 and 1932 so they forecast gold will rally with the collapse of the dollar and the stock market. However, 1931 was the Sovereign Debt Crisis where most of the world permanently defaulted on their National Debts. The USA did not. So because we were on a gold standard, if the price of gold rose, so did the dollar. OMG! That must be heresy!

When you are on a gold standard, then tangible assets drop in terms of currency so yes gold rises. But when you are NOT on a gold standard, then gold is just a tangible asset that declines against the currency along with everything else. Most of these people are clueless about understanding the monetary system

During the rally for gold into 1980 when the dollar was declining in the floating exchange rate system, the stock market did not crash – it consolidated. These people spin out total sophistry that sounds great, cause so many people to lose their savings, and they never repent or try to understand why they have been wrong ever since 1980

The Great Alignment will be when all tangible assets rise against a declining purchasing power of the currencies which today are NOT linked to gold.

We are getting closer. Do not rush in where only fools are found.

.....also from Martin: 

Understanding the Markets

 



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Gold & Precious Metals

Key Junior Miners Look Impressive

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 06 April 2018 06:05

During the nearly 2 years Gold has been capped by the $1360 - $1370 level Morris Hubbartt thinks junior mining stocks have been tracing out some impressive patterns and several juniors are poised to move sharply higher. Analysis of the Dow and Nasdaq is also included below. Before pulling the trigger, read this missive Gold is not Saying Something – Its Screaming It- R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Here are today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):

SFS Key Charts & Video Update

zu1


SF60 Key Charts & Video Update



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Gold & Precious Metals

"Gold Stocks: The New Safe Haven"

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Wednesday, 04 April 2018 04:55

No surprise there are two distinctly different takes on Gold & Gold Stocks right now. First we have a minority thinking It's Not Yet Time for Gold, which includes Martin Armstrong in "this public article" and in this more specifically in  Private Blog Post at month end. Alternatively there is a major industry that continues to market Gold aggressively despite its declining trend since 2011, the same time period the Dow Industrial Average doubled from 11,917 to yesterdays 24,007.  This article looks at the upward performance of Gold and Gold stocks while the Dow shed 800 points over the the last 3 days - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

April 3, 2018 

1.   Will this Friday’s US jobs report be the catalyst that sends gold above the key $1370 resistance zone and ushers in a new era of institutional enthusiasm for gold stocks?

2.  Please click here now.  Double click to enlarge.  The US stock market suffered yet another “cardiac arrest” moment yesterday.   

3.  Market breadth has thinned horrifically, and the low rates and QE that have incentivized corporate buybacks have been replaced with rising rates and QT.  That’s akin to replacing a firetruck’s water with gasoline.

4.  I’ve outlined the case for a possible minor rally in April from current price levels, but the market is so weak internally that it is risk of a much bigger cardiac arrest event.  

5. I don’t think Jay Powell will announce a rate hike at the early may Fed meeting, but he might.  If he does, stock market investors should be ready to trade in their “Sell in May and go away” mantra for… “Sell in May after getting blown away by Jay.” 

6.  If he wants to do four hikes in 2018 but avoid doing a hike in the September stock market “crash season” month, he is likely to seriously consider doing a hike in May.  Are investors prepared for such a surprise?  If they own lots of gold, the answer is yes!

7.  Please click here now.  So far in 2018 almost eighteen billion US dollars in institutional money has flowed out of the main S&P500 ETF.  This market is very sick, and getting sicker.  

8.  The bottom line: US stock market rallies should be sold and the proceeds should be placed in cash, gold bullion, and gold stocks.

9.   Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this horrifying T-bond chart.  On a day that the Dow Industrials fell more than 700 points at one point, the T-bond could barely rally at all.

10. Institutional money managers and sovereign wealth funds are beginning to realize that rate hikes and QT are a tremendous headwind to the US government’s ability to finance itself.

11.  During the latest stock market mini crashes, they have clearly started to move their focus from T-bonds to gold.  

12.  As more rate hikes and QT create much bigger and more frequent crash events in the stock market, I expect this institutional interest in gold to accelerate.

13. Please click here now. Technically, gold’s price action is very impressive.  A small head and shoulders top formation was quickly destroyed with yesterday’s safe haven rally.

14.        Please click here now.  Indian demand for the Akha Teej festival is solid.  It should serve as great support for an imminent surge through upside resistance at $1370. 

15.        For an important look at that resistance zone, please click here now.  Double click to enlarge.  Gold is coiling in what I call a bull “super flag” pattern, and seems eager to burst higher in a rally that should carry it to $1425.

16.        What’s particularly exciting is that in addition to bullion, the GDX ETF is beginning to act as a safe haven!  

17.        “Newbie” investors to the precious metals asset class have memories of the deflationary declines in 2008.  They get nervous when they see the stock market fall, and wonder if gold stocks will also fall.

18.        The goods news for these investors is that the current situation is more akin to the late 1960s or early 1970s than 2008.  

19.        Please click here now.  While institutional money is pouring out of stock market ETFs, it’s starting to pour into the GDX gold stocks ETF.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Could the Stars Be Aligned for $1500 Gold?

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 29 March 2018 07:06

COMM-gold-price-has-crushed-the-market-so-far-this-century-03232018

Golds performance has outstripped the booming S&P 500 since the year 2000. Even with dividends reinvested, the soaring Stock Market is still trailing the yellow metal! That's even with Gold dribbling down $600 since its high of $1920 8 years ago. Definitely time to take a look at Gold's near and long term potential - R. Zurrer for Money TAlks 

COMM-gold-stars-aligned-03232018

In a January post, I showed how the price of gold rallied in the months following the 2015 and 2016 December interest rate hikes—as much as 29 percent in the former cycle, 17.8 percent in the latter. Gold ended 2017 up double digits, despite pressure from skyrocketing stocks and massive cryptocurrency speculation.

Will there be a fed rally in 2018
click to enlarge

I forecast then that we could see another "Fed rally" this year following the rate hike in December 2017. Hypothetically, if gold took a similar trajectory as the past two cycles, its price could climb as high as $1,500 this year.

As I told Kitco News’ Daniela Cambone last week, I stand by the $1,500 forecast. Before last week, investors might have been slightly disappointed by gold's mostly sideways performance so far this year. But now, in response to a number of factors, it's up close to 3 percent in 2018, compared to the S&P 500 Index, down 2.4 percent.

Living with Volatility

While I'm on the topic of equities, the S&P 500 dividend yield, for the first time in nearly a decade, is now below the yield on the two-year Treasury. Historically, the economy has slowed around six months after dividends stopped paying as much as short-dated government paper. This could spur some stock investors to trim their exposure and rotate into other asset classes, including not just bonds but also precious metals, which I believe might help gold revisit resistance from its 2016 high of $1,374 an ounce.

Two year treasury yeild is now higher than sp 500 dividened yield

click to enlarge

Volatility has also crept back into markets. It began with the positive wage growth report in February, implying the possibility of faster inflation. More recently, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), or “fear gauge,” has surged on the departures of Gary Cohn as chief economic advisor and Rex Tillerson as secretary of state, as well as the application of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. Last week, President Donald Trump ordered tariffs on at least $50 billion of Chinese goods, stoking new fears of a U.S.-China trade war. In response, the Asian giant proposed fresh duties on as much as $3 billion of U.S. products, including wine, fruits, nuts, ethanol and steel pipes.

Volatility has returned to markets after a calm 2017
click to enlarge

As I see it, there could be other contributing factors pushing up the price of gold. A good place to start is with Trump’s recent appointment of former CNBC star Larry Kudlow as White House chief economic advisor.

Kudlow’s Kerfuffle Over Gold



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Gold & Precious Metals

Buy Bank, Gold, & Silver Stocks Now

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 27 March 2018 06:58

2018mar27dow1

Larger Chart

One look at Stewart's chart above indicates that we are in a buying zone right here. That leaves the questions what will perform the best and how rising interest rates will effect this market in this 24 point analysis - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Mar 27, 2018

  1. I’ve predicted that in 2018 the US stock market would suffer a series of crashes somewhat akin to the 1987 event, but smaller in size. 
  2. Please  Double-click the chart above for a larger version of this interesting chart of the US stock market. Clearly, these mini-crashes are starting to happen. 
  3. Having said that, I haven’t sold any of my US bank stocks and I have no plans to do so. 
  4. To understand why I’m still “long and strong” the bank stocks in this environment, please  click here now. Bank profits are soaring because of tax cuts, QT, and rate hikes.
  5. Corporate boards are still using the bulk of the profits for stock buybacks and bonuses for the “fat cats”, while throwing crumbs to the lower-paid workers. 
  6. As disgusting as that is, it’s a good environment to own stock market indexes, and a great environment to own bank stocks.
  7. This is the stage of the business cycle where “big growth” transitions to “decent growth with inflation”. Simply put, in this environment bank stocks do well, growth stocks stumble, and gold stocks start to get modest liquidity flows from institutions. 
  8. As the cycle moves to “inflation with low growth”, growth stocks crash, bank stocks fade, and gold stocks soar.
  9. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key T-bond chart. US interest rates are rising now and poised to rise relentlessly for the next several years. 
  10. There are “institutional thresholds” of importance in major markets. For the US stock market, institutions will generally continue to buy stocks until the ten-year yield reaches the 4%-5% range.
  11. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
  12. Goldman is predicting four rate hikes this year and I’m predicting a minimum of three. The yield should get close to 4% by the end of this year.
  13. I realise that most gold bugs are “stock market crash enthusiasts”. There’s no question that the US stock market has soared mainly because the “hot air” of QE and low rates has incentivized corporate boards to focus on stock market buybacks rather than worker wages and business expansion.
  14. Having said that, patience is required. Investors need to focus on the slow but steady cyclical transition from growth to inflation as the Fed pushes the enormous QE money ball out of government bonds and into the fractional reserve banking system.
  15. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous daily gold chart. The rectangle pattern is flag-like, and suggests gold is coiling to burst above my key $1370 resistance zone.
  16. Short term traders who took my recommendation to buy the $1310 area should be sellers in this $1340-$1355 area. That’s because there could be quite a bit more coiling action before a true breakout above $1370 occurs. The bottom line is that investors need to be patient and traders need to book profits now!
  17. Looking at the big picture, the inflation trade is clearly becoming more positive for gold every day. The Trump decision to appoint John “The Hawk” Bolton to a key post in his administration makes the geopolitical trade for gold a positive one as well.
  18. What about the love trade? Well, please  click here now. The 2019 Indian elections are approaching and the Modi government is likely to win again.
  19. Modi is backed with “monster money” and to ensure he wins again he’s launching a huge farm income program called MSP. This program is inflationary because it boosts crop prices. That alone is positive for the global price of gold.
  20. The MSP program also is poised to create a massive boost in farmer income, and rural Indians always use extra income to buy more gold. Please  click here now. This MSP policy launch is happening at the same time as the influential Niti Aayog panel pushes the Modi government to implement a massive gold-positive policy agenda.
  21. I’ve been adamant that 2018 would see the absolute end of gold-negative policy from the Modi government, and the launch of positive policy. That’s clearly in play, and it’s going to exponentially accelerate relentlessly.
  22. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. The technical action is superb, and investors should now be buyers of their favourite GDX and GDXJ component stocks on all two and three-day pullbacks.
  23. Please  click here now. Double click to enlarge. With food inflation set to surge in India and general wage and price inflation on the move in America, it’s time for investors to take a more serious interest in silver stocks. The big upside action won’t start until there’s a volume-based breakout from the bull wedge pattern on this silver stocks ETF chart. 
  24. Call option buyers should wait for that breakout before buying, but all silver stock enthusiasts should be buyers of key SIL component stocks right now. Use two and three-day pull backs to take buy-side action, in preparation for the imminent upside rocket ride!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Mar 27, 2018
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com



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