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Gold & Precious Metals

Precious Metals: Patience Is Golden

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Wednesday, 15 November 2017 06:05

1.    Without growth in Western gold ETF holdings, the “decent but not spectacular” demand from China and India is not strong enough to move the gold price higher.

2.    Please click here now.  The SPDR (GLD-nyse) fund gold holdings currently sit at about 843 tonnes.  There has been very little change in the total tonnage for several months.  That’s neutral for the gold price.

3.    Governments don’t like their citizens to own much gold.  Restrictions they impose (like India’s import duty as a recent example) dampen demand enough so that the price rises very slowly most of the time.

4.    Economic growth in China and India are increasing demand (the love trade) and mine supply is contracting, but the process is essentially “Chindian water torture” for investors who want to see the price skyrocket like it did in the late 1970s.

5.    Investors that want “big action” in the gold price need to wait patiently for the US business cycle to peak.  

6.    For the price of gold to really sizzle, the business cycle needs to have an inflationary peak.  That hasn’t happened since the 1970s.  Many gold price analysts have used overlap charts that suggest the gold market now is akin to the 1976-1978 period.

7.    I look at fundamentals first, and charts second.  From an inflationary standpoint, the US economy looks more akin to the late 1960s than the late 1970s.



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Gold & Precious Metals

My Conviction in Gold Royalty Companies and Bitcoin

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 14 November 2017 05:41

COMM-bitcoin-11102017

Some of you reading this might already be familiar with the “Parable of the Talents,” but it’s worth a brief retelling. The story, which appears in the gospels of Matthew and Mark, involves a master who entrusts three servants with some of his “talents,” or gold coins, while he’s away on business. Two of the servants take a risk by putting the money to work and end up doubling their master’s wealth. The third servant, however, buries his share to “keep it safe” and so doesn’t generate any returns. (Indeed it likely loses value because of inflation.)

When the master returns, he’s so pleased at how the first two servants grew his wealth that he puts them in charge of “many things” and invites them to share in his own success.

The third servant, though, he calls “wicked and lazy” and says he might as well have deposited the money in a bank while he was away—at least then he would have received a little interest. The servant is punished by having his share of the talents given to the two who faithfully grew their master’s money, leaving him with nothing.

The lesson here should be plainly obvious, and we can express it in a number of different ways: There can be no reward without risk. You must spend money to make money. You reap what you sow. This should resonate with investors, entrepreneurs and any true believer in the power of capitalism.

Jesus’ parable applies not just to individuals but to corporations as well. Companies must grow to keep up with the rising cost of labor and materials and to stay competitive. To do that, they must put their money to work just as the two servants do.

And just as the two servants were invited to share in their master’s success, corporate growth has a multiplier effect—for the company’s employees and their families, shareholders, the local economy, strategic partners, companies up and down the supply chain and much more.

A Bonanza for Precious Metal Royalty Companies as Exploration Budgets Have Declined



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Gold & Precious Metals

A “Silver” Lining In The Metals Market

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Monday, 13 November 2017 06:19

imagesWhen I look at the 3 charts that I follow in the metals complex, they seem to be telling a different story today, at least in their micro structures.

Silver seems to have broken out of its downtrend, and can be viewed as having completed wave i of its (c) wave to the target box above.  GLD seems to be stuck in neutral, with the same “potential” structure as silver, but without as much clarity to its micro count as silver has potentially presented.

And, then we are left with the GDX.  As long as the GDX remains below the 23.05 level, it still has a smaller degree set up to test the 22 region before a rally may ensue.

So, on Friday (Nov 3), GDX has now dropped down and provided us the lower low I was looking for this past week right into the support region I noted last weekend between 21.95-22.30.  Moreover, both gold and silver have now pulled back from their rallies begun this past week, and have still retained a set up to rally in the upcoming week.

Based upon the smaller degree wave counts, it certainly still seems as though the miners and the metals are potentially in different patterns, with the upcoming week set up to provide us further confirmation of this potential.

As I have noted for the last several weeks, silver really seems to be the more telling of the metals charts.  I have been following a potential count which suggests that a (c) wave rally within a b-wave of wave ii is taking shape.  And, I have noted that as long as we hold over the 16.40-16.50 support region, we can rally back up towards the September highs. 



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold & The Big Four: Slam Dunk

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Thursday, 09 November 2017 06:31

Nov 7, 2017

  1. The synergistic relationship between gold and economic growth is quite healthy, and poised to become even more healthy in 2018 – 2019.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous South Korean stock market ETF chart.
  3. Big name Western money managers are finally racing to move money into Asian markets, and this is great news for both gold and global stock markets.
  4. For several years I’ve recommended that the gold community slightly reduce (but not drop) their focus on gold’s Western world fear trade and increase their focus on the Eastern stock markets and the love trade for gold.
  5. South Korea’s stock market sports 50% earnings growth and a P/E ratio of just 10! Japan’s market is also red hot, and so are the markets of China and India.
  6. US markets have risen strongly, but with anemic economic growth and nosebleed valuations. Growth is vastly stronger in Asia, but without European and US money manager participation, Asian stock markets have previously languished.
  7. This situation has changed dramatically in 2017, and 2018 should see an acceleration of this new trend. 
  8. The bottom line: American markets are hot but overvalued. Asian markets are red hot but not overvalued.
  9. I own ETFs (and some individual stocks) in the “Big Four” Asian markets; India, China, Japan, and Korea. I urge all Western gold bugs to “get with the (good) times”. The fear trade for gold will never disappear, but it’s a new era, and this new era is dominated by Asia. 
  10. Investors should be very comfortable owning Asian stock markets and gold… at the same time. The bottom line: America isn’t out, but Asia is in! 
  11. When times are good (and they are now very good in Asia), Asians buy more gold. Exponentially more. Chinese demand reflects this fact. It’s rising again; demand is up almost 20% over 2016, and poised to rise even more strongly in 2018.
  12. Please  click here now. Next, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart.
  13. Technically, gold’s rally ended in early September because of significant resistance at $1362 (the demonetization night high). 
  14. Fundamentally, gold peaked then because of the Modi government’s August 23rd launch of the hideous PMLA program. That launch immediately sent Indian imports plunging towards the zero marker. When Indian gold imports sink, the price of gold sinks. It’s that simple.
  15. The good news: The government has rescinded PMLA and imports are growing again. Wedding season is beginning and Chinese New Year buy season approaches. As a result, the price is showing firmness, and a gold price rally appears imminent.
  16. I’ve predicted that Indian GDP growth should hit 10% by 2020. America’s could fall to 1% by then while US inflation starts surging and gold mine production shrinks noticeably. This is an epic win-win situation for gold.
  17. Sentiment in the gold and hedge fund communities is now generally negative, as it always is when significant rallies begin. 
  18. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. There’s a bear wedge in play on this dollar-yen chart now, which is more good news for all gold price enthusiasts. The commercial traders are also adding to their short positions in the dollar against both the yen and the Swiss franc.
  19. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. There’s a modest head and shoulders top pattern in play, and that has a lot of old timer gold bugs nervous. 
  20. Unfortunately, these old timers may be too obsessed with the Western fear trade era of the past, and missing out on the Asian stock markets and gold price synergy that defines the new gold bull era. 
  21. Minor H&S top patterns like this one are irrelevant in the big picture, and this one may be getting technically voided anyways.
  22. On that note, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. This is just what the gold bug doctor ordered, to spread some bull era cheer! 
  23. A fabulous bull wedge pattern is destroying the H&S top pattern, which makes sense given the great fundamental action taking place in India and China.
  24. Owning the “Big Four” stock markets of India, China, Korea, and Japan while engorging on gold, silver, gold stocks (with some bitcoin for extra wealth building fun), is perhaps the greatest “no-brainer” investor play in the history of markets!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Nov 7, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com



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Gold & Precious Metals

Silver’s Sign and USD’s Upcoming Reversal

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits

on Wednesday, 08 November 2017 06:29

Most of technical analysis that one can read about gold and gold stocks is based on these markets alone. This is quite strange given the multitude of intermarket relationships, but still that’s the case. While it is true that looking at the performance of a given market is the most important thing that one can do when estimating the future performance of a given asset, it doesn’t mean that it’s all there is to it. Conversely, looking at the bigger picture and considering the less known factors can give investors and traders extra insight necessary to gain the Holy Grail of trading – the edge. So, we thought that you might appreciate a discussion of factors that are not as popular as the analysis of the precious metals market on its own, but that is still likely to have an important effect on its price.

In today’s free analysis, we discuss three such issues: the non-USD silver price (the average of silver prices in terms of currencies other than the U.S. dollar), the Dow to gold ratio and the long-term USD Index picture. The latter is quite often analyzed, but such analyses are generally conducted based on only the most recent data and thus what we discuss should put such comments in proper perspective. In other words, it should make sure that one doesn’t miss the forest for individual trees. Let’s start with the former (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):

1f



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