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Gold & Precious Metals

THE BLIND CONSPIRACY: The Gold Market Is Heading Towards A Big Fundamental Change

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSRocco Report

on Monday, 04 December 2017 06:46

Conspiracy-Image-FIMAGEThe gold market is heading towards a big fundamental change that few are prepared.  While many analysts in the alternative media community suggest that the gold price is manipulated due to Fed and Central bank intervention, there is another more obscure rationale that is the likely culprit.  I call it, “The Blind Conspiracy.”

But, before I get into the details of this Blind Conspiracy, there are a few very troubling developments in the alternative media community that I would like to discuss first.  The bulk of these concerns has to do with the increasing amount of faulty analysis and misinformation as well as the peddling of lousy conspiracy theories on the internet.

Why is this a big problem?  Because a lot of readers are being misguided as to the true nature of the serious predicament we are facing.  Half of the emails that I receive are from readers who are bringing up doubts based on other analysts’ faulty analysis and misinformation.  Thus, it takes a great deal of effort to provide the real facts and data to counteract the damage being done by certain individuals, even those with good intentions.

Furthermore, an increasing number of so-called precious metals analysts have switched over to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, believing that gold and silver will no longer function as monetary metals.  However, some of these analysts suggest that silver will still be valuable because it will be used as critical raw material in advanced products in our new HIGH-TECH WORLD.  I find this idea of a future modern high-tech world quite amusing when we can’t even maintain the failing complex infrastructure we are currently using.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Key Gold Stocks In Launchpad Mode

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 01 December 2017 07:07

Today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):
 

SFS Key Charts & Video Update

s1



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Being Odd and USD Being Tricky

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 30 November 2017 06:41

Every now and then we see some kind of anomaly on the precious metals market. Sometimes it’s particularly useful and sometimes it’s just something random. Yesterday was one of those days when something didn’t seem right. The USD Index rallied, silver declined, mining stocks declined and yet, gold closed the session higher. What can we infer from this uncommon event?

Unfortunately, not much. It was just one day when gold behaved in this way, so at this time we have no reasons to believe that gold’s one-metal rally was anything important. One thing that was visible in the gold market and that wasn’t visible in other parts of the precious metals market was gold’s breakoutabove the triangle pattern. Consequently, yesterday’s strength might have simply been a consequence of the breakout and we already described it yesterday. We wrote that we could see an upswing, but we don’t think it will be anything major, for instance a move to the October high. So, in a way, nothing changed, even though the relative moves during yesterday’s session might have raised many eyebrows.

Let’s take a closer look at the gold chart for details (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

1 UxAjAhk

 

Larger Version



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: $1400 Is The Key

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 28 November 2017 06:09

Nov 28, 2017

  1. The big picture for gold continues to strengthen. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
  2. In 2016, gold began the year at about $1100, soared $300 an ounce to about $1400, but then it gave back about $250, and ended the year at about $1150 with only a $50 gain.
  3. That price action fit perfectly with my 2014 – 2017 theme of “rough sideways action, initially with a downside bias that develops into an upside bias”.
  4. The year 2018 should see solid Chindian demand, a reversal in US money velocity, and a peak in mine supply. That should push gold up from the enormous sideways trading pattern and into a substantial uptrend.
  5. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this key weekly gold chart.
  6. Note the fabulous increase in volume since 2016. This is very positive.
  7. One of my most important market mantras is that fundamentals make charts. I postulated the “gold will trade sideways with a slight downside bias” thesis in 2014 because I saw gold price discovery transitioning (slowly) away from the fear trade of the West and towards the love trade of the East.
  8. The imposition of the vile 10% import duty in India put millions of jewellery workers on the unemployment line and it caused a huge restructuring of the jewellery industry.
  9. The way it was playing out fundamentally suggested that an enormous inverse head & shoulders pattern would be created as that restructuring progressed. 
  10. The transition in America from deflation to inflation and the peak in mine supply are supporting fundamental factors for the way the inverse head and shoulders pattern has been built.
  11. The bottom line is that in the right shouldering area of a massive inverse head and shoulders bottom pattern, investors should expect the price to trade sideways with an upside bias, and as the pattern nears completion, that upside bias will intensify.
  12. That’s exactly what is happening now. Gold is poised to end 2017 giving back very little of what it gained.
  13. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The dollar’s action against the yen is a key indicator of the amount of risk that institutional investors are likely to take.


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Gold & Precious Metals

Are Trend Following and Gold a Perfect Match?

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Posted by Charlie Bilello - Pension Partners

on Monday, 27 November 2017 07:21

Market participants are often heard saying things like “you can’t trade Gold on fundamentals.” With no cash flows to discount, Gold is a different animal than stocks or bonds. It is said to swing higher and lower due to changes in investor sentiment alone. Many a trader will advise you to simply follow the trend: 

  • When Gold is in an uptrend, own Gold.
  • When Gold is in a downtrend, go to cash.

Going back to 1975 (when Gold futures began trading), how would such a strategy have fared?

At first glance, pretty good. Owning Gold when it closed above its 200-day moving average and moving to cash when it closed below it would have resulted in a higher return (5.1% vs. 4.6%) with lower volatility (16.5% vs. 20.0%) than buy-and-hold.

Screen Shot 2017-11-27 at 8.09.39 AM

The maximum drawdown: 51% for trend following versus -69.6% for buy-and-hold.


Case closed, trend following wins?

Not so fast. We have yet to include the transaction costs that exist in the real world. The trend following strategy would have traded around 3.75 times per year going back to 1975. At a cost below 0.14% per trade, trend following still beats buy-and-hold. At anything above 0.14%, trend following underperforms.



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