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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: Seasonal Factor Now Mature

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH & BiiWii

on Wednesday, 24 January 2018 07:08

A Few Words on the Gold Sector

As the long-term interest rate Amigo continues upward, the anti-USD ‘inflation trade’ continues onward and more and more gold bug writers emerge from the woodwork, it is time for a little antidote to the inevitable pitches and hype to come.

Everything is playing to script and with this little pullback to a higher low in the miners being resolved in the favored direction, the writer bugs are going to further their bullish message and try to get more reader bugs to follow their guidance. But absolutely nothing has changed.

We caught the seasonal rally amid much disgust by writer and reader bugs, and it has simply not yet concluded. Nothing more to read into it than that. While I think 2018 is likely to see the confirmation of a new bull market, a selling opportunity is probably upcoming amid gold bug bravado and pomp (oms) because the fundamentals are not yet in order.

Everybody’s gonna be touting inflation when yields hit their limiters (again, ref. Amigo #1), and run away inflation is not the proper lock & load fundamental backdrop. The miners can go a long way as inflationist bugs tout gold, silver, oil, copper and resources of all kinds. But the other stuff is cyclical and the best case for gold mining is counter-cyclical.

Anyway, here is some droning from NFTRH 483 (1.21.18)

Gold has obviously been bullish vs. both the US dollar and long-term Treasury bonds and each of those conditions is indicative of an ‘inflation trade’. Please see the weekly Gold-Eagle article to be linked at nftrh.com later today for more on the sector and why I think its rally is nearing its end, if it is not already complete.

While said ‘inflation trade’ is ongoing as part of the risk ‘on’ macro party, the gold sector is an also ran. If you’d like self-reinforcing gold bug feel good sentiments you can find them aplenty out there now, and that is part of the problem. The bugs are on the tout.

I won’t play that game. The fact that the gold herd is getting more bullish now only reaffirms that profit taking is a good idea, with the question being did the rally end last week or is it going to take a final leg up per the still-intact uptrend?

So as noted in Thursday’s update, HUI remains on its uptrend from December and thus far holds a higher low. Another leg up (or 5th wave) could be the best yet and really cement gold bugs into a full bull view. A loss of the SMA 200 and the January low brings on a stern warning that the rally ended at the 1st target of 205 (ultimate target near <omitted>).

<inserting an updated, and more detailed chart (than the one in NFTRH 483), which tells the story of the index since we caught the top at 220, got frustrated w/ a couple of failed bounce attempts, caught the sentiment washout and seasonal bottom in December and began managing the ongoing rally and its intact series of higher highs and higher lows>

hui2

 

Right or wrong, I am not going to mince words because I’ve seen the cheerleaders become most vocal at exactly the wrong time too many times over the years and I’ve sometimes regretted being delicate, in hindsight.

Among good, sharp analysts the sector is also populated by charlatans, pitch men, people who desperately want you to be bullish because they know that emotion sells (there’s no fever like gold fever) and finally, non-analysts pretending to be analysts. I believe that many regular people who want to be bullish on gold feel in their hearts the reasons why; they abhor dishonesty and they respect integrity. But that is what the gold cult “community” uses as currency. It sells good (vs. evil). But these are the financial markets and there is nothing inherently good about them. They are what they are.

I see no reason to change the play now. The fundamentals have not improved appreciably as the ‘inflation trade’ moves forward. The seasonal factor is now mature and the pompoms are no longer afraid (or embarrassed) to tout gold. I think 2018 will be good for gold, but a selling opportunity may well come first. And this would be it.

NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold A Good News Gravy Train

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 23 January 2018 06:33

Jan 23, 2018

  1. The good news for gold keeps flowing, with institutions around the world stepping up to the buy window ever-more frequently. 
  2. They are clearly embracing gold as a key portfolio holding for the long term. The bottom line: institutional respect for gold as a portfolio diversifier has never been stronger than it is right now.
  3. On that exciting note, please  click here now. Standard Chartered bank carries serious institutional weight. Their gold market analysis projects a surge to five-year highs. This kind of positive analysis that continues to emanate from major banks is bringing more institutions into gold.
  4. Please  click here now. Germans are now the most aggressive gold buyers in Europe.
  5. While SPDR fund buying was soft in 2017, German institutions bought about 50 tons of gold… in just one physically backed gold fund!Deutsche Boerse reports that family offices and individuals are starting to join institutions on the buy. I expect record demand in Germany in 2018.
  6. I’ve predicted that Trump would unveil inflationary tariffs in America, and that’s in play as of this morning. Please  click here now. I’ve coined the term “Trumpflation” to describe what is coming, and what is coming is very positive for gold.
  7. Trump sees a huge cash cow for the government as solar energy becomes a gargantuan industry. The citizens get hit hard… unless they own a diversified portfolio of gold stocks!
  8. I’ve also predicted a major partnership between blockchain and gold will emerge, creating a significant rise in global demand for the world’s greatest metal. 
  9. On that note, please:  click here now. Rob Martin is head of market infrastructure for the World Gold Council. 


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Gold & Precious Metals

Why You Must Own Silver in 2018

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Posted by Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 22 January 2018 06:01

While Gold is very close to a major breakout (in price) its strength has not filtered down to Silver yet. Gold is 3% away from a major breakout and comfortably above its long-term moving averages. However, Silver is well below its 2016 high and is currently battling its 200-day moving average. But that is okay. Silver typically lags and underperforms Gold until Gold gains momentum or breaks key resistance. A major breakout in Gold this year and its effect on Silver is just one reason why Silver could have a big year.

If and when Silver breaks above its 2017 highs, we can declare its bear market over (in terms of time). The chart below plots all of the major bear markets in Silver. They all end at the point when Silver begins to make higher highs and rises in an impulsive fashion. Silver’s bear market was the second worst by price and potentially the worst in terms of time.

SilverBearsLongest

The next chart shows the rebounds in Silver from the endpoints in the previous chart. From the three endpoints Silver rebounded significantly in the next 12-15 months. We also included the 2008 crash from which Silver rebounded 100% in the following 13 months.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: Is The Consolidation Over?

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 19 January 2018 12:47

Ttoday's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):

SFS Key Charts & Video Update

g1



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Gold & Precious Metals

How to Trade Gold During Second Half of January

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Posted by Chris Vermulen - The Gold & Oil Guy

on Thursday, 18 January 2018 07:19

Metals are setting up for that “Rip Your Face Off Rally”.  The following charts for Gold and Silver show a very interesting setup that is unfolding as the US markets continue to strengthen – that being that the Metals are showing strength in price and we can only assume this is related to some level of FEAR in the markets or expectations that the “Equities and Bitcoin Bubbles” are nearing an end.

Gold and Silver have been one of our primary focuses for years.  We warned of the “Rip Your Face Off” rally near the Third Quarter 2017 as our cycle analysis was bottoming in December.

The recent rally in Gold has been substantial and has managed to breach recent resistance levels near $1300~1310.  At this point, we are expecting a moderate pullback in Gold over the next few weeks to levels likely near or below the $1300 level before the next leg advances well above $1380.  The presumed formation of Wave 3, if our analysis is correct, should prompt a massive move in the metals over the next 3~7 months with a number of pullbacks along the way.  Right now, it all depends on how Gold reacts to the recent highs and how deep the next retracement in price is. We could see a $1270~1300 level price pullback before the next leg higher executes.  This would be the best entry zone for both traders and long-term investors.

GOLD-FD



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