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Gold & Precious Metals

Technicals for Gold Miners Remain Weak

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 27 March 2017 06:17

Last week we wrote that precious metals should see upside follow through but to be wary of the 200-day moving averages and February highs before becoming excited. The metals did follow through as Gold gained 1.5% and Silver gained 1.9% (for the week) but the miners disappointed. GDX gained only 1.1% while GDXJ finished in the red as did junior silver companies (SILJ). As spring beckons, the gold stocks are showing relative and internal weakness. 

Two signs of weakness in the miners are visible in the weekly candle charts below. First, while Gold has already rallied back to its high the first week of February, GDX and GDXJ are down 11% and 15% respectively. The miners and the metals will not always be perfectly aligned but that is a rather stark divergence. Secondly, although Gold closed at the highs of the week in each of the past two weeks the miners failed to hold their gains. This is not exactly the type of price action that inspires more gains in the short term.  

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Gold, GDXJ, GDX Weekly Candles



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Gold & Precious Metals

A Grinding Gold Market: Key Trades

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 24 March 2017 06:25

Here are today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):
  

Big Macro Picture Key Charts & Video Analysis

asilver hands


SFS Key Charts & Tactics Video Analysis



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Gold & Precious Metals

February CPI and Gold

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Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 07:16

Last week, several U.S. economic reports were released. What do they imply for the gold market?

The FOMC meeting and parliamentary election in the Netherlands prevented us from covering recent economic data coming out from the U.S. Let’s catch up. First of all, inflation continued to strengthen. Consumer prices increased 0.1 percent last month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was the smallest rise since last summer and much below a 0.6 percent surge in January. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile energy and food categories, increased 0.2 percent, only slightly faster. However, overall CPI rose 2.7 percent on an annual basis, the highest level since early 2012. Core CPI jumped 2.2 percent over the last 12 months.

As one can see in the chart below, the overall consumer inflation rate significantly accelerated over the last several months. The inflation rate rose from 0 percent in September 2015 to almost 3 percent currently. It strengthens the hawks’ camp in the U.S. central bank, which is generally bad news for gold bulls. However, until the Fed remains behind the curve, gold may gain due to lower real interest rates.

Chart 1: CPI (blue line) and core CPI (red line) year-over-year from February 2012 to February 2017.

1-cpi



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Gold & Precious Metals

James Turk – Mega Cup And Handle Formation Has Silver Price Set To Explode Higher

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Posted by King World News

on Tuesday, 21 March 2017 07:17

KWN-Maguire-I-2282015-864x400 cA Turn May Finally Be At Hand

James Turk:  “I’d like to begin, Eric, by noting that based on their Comex closing price in New York, spot gold and silver last week rose by a spectacular $29.10 and 49.6 cents, for gains of 2.2% and 2.9% respectively. Jumps of this magnitude over such a short period of time are rare, so these results from last week are important events that deserve our attention…

....continue reading HERE

...also from King World:

ALERT: Big Money Just Made A Massive Short Bet Against The U.S. Stock Market



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Gold & Precious Metals

Precious Metals and 200-Day Moving Averages

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 20 March 2017 07:07

The precious metals complex enjoyed a strong week mostly due to a post-Fed explosion on Wednesday. Although gold stocks sold off to end the week, they finished up almost 5% for the week. Gold gained 2.4% on the week while Silver gained 2.9%. The miners enjoyed massive gains following the previous two rate hikes and that has some optimistic about a repeat scenario. However, the miners and metals need to prove they can recapture their 200-day moving averages before we become optimistic.

Precious metals should trend higher in the short-term if the current macro technical landscape does not change. The US Dollar index has fallen below its 50-day moving average and could fall another 2% to moving average support. Also, despite the Fed rate hike, the 10-year yield did not make a new high. Bonds could rebound and the huge speculative short position, if unwound could add to the rebound. A rally in Bonds coupled with a weak US Dollar would help precious metals.

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Precious metals could rebound farther but resistance in the form of the 200-day moving average looms large. In the chart below we plot Gold, Silver, GDXJ and GDX along with their 200-day moving averages. In addition to the 200-day moving average, the February highs will also provide resistance. We should note, while the metals remained above their late January lows, the miners did not. It would not be a good sign to see a continued rally led by the metals rather than the miners.



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