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Gold & Precious Metals

US Jobs Report: Key Driver For Gold

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 03 January 2017 07:52

Jan 3, 2017

  1. While the December 31 selling in gold and gold stocks may have rattled gold bugs a bit, the fact is that gold begins 2017 in pretty good shape. 
  2. Big fundamental themes that weighed on the “ultimate asset” in 2016 appear ready to reverse and become supportive for higher price action.
  3. Please  click here now. For much of 2016, the size of the commercial trader net short position was a headwind for gold. 
  4. In recent weeks, that’s been reduced quite significantly.
  5. Leveraged hedge funds have also reduced their long positions. That’s healthy action because the funds use too much leverage. As a result, modest selling by the commercial traders creates margin calls for the funds, and gold community investors can feel pain too.
  6. The bottom line is that in terms of the overall positioning on the COMEX, the gold market is in a much healthier position now.
  7. Please  click here now.  Top jewellers in Dubai are predicting that the gold jewellery demand cycle is bottoming, and 2017 will see both Indians and UAE residents buying with confidence. This is very good news.
  8. Dubai is known as the “City of Gold”, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange is very active in building gold market infrastructure there. This partnership is likely to strengthen in 2017. 
  9. In the short term, gold has a rough general tendency to decline ahead of the US jobs report, and then rally after the report is released. The next report comes out this Friday. 
  10. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. In the world of fiat currencies, the price action of the US dollar versus the yen has tremendous influence on the gold price.
  11.  There’s a pennant-like pattern in play on this daily chart, and a run to the 125 area looks likely. 
  12. In the big picture, though, there’s a major bull non-confirmation taking place. The dollar is making intermediate trend highs against the USDX index, but not against gold or the yen.
  13. Please  click here now. The commercial traders are buying the safe haven yen aggressively, while the leveraged funds are shorting it. 
  14. For the funds, this is a very dangerous situation, and one that could produce a violent move higher in the gold price at a time when that seems impossible. 
  15. The inauguration of Donald Trump on January 20 could also coincide with a price of 125 on the dollar versus yen chart. If so, the rally in the gold price of the past few weeks could be set to accelerate then, in a very big way.
  16. Please  click here now. The franc is another safe haven currency, and its price action against the dollar has a high correlation with gold’s action against the dollar. 
  17. The commercial traders have an outstanding track record in both the gold and fiat currency markets. They are suddenly buying the Swiss franc against the dollar, and doing so very aggressively. 
  18. Gold bugs should pay attention to current commercial trader liquidity flows, which suggest that a major gold price rally is either imminent, or already underway! 
  19. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Another important correlation for gold investors to follow is the T-bond chart priced in US dollars.
  20. The T-bond appears to be basing, and commercial traders have also been buyers recently.  
  21. Please  click here now. The commercial “smart money” traders are now net long the T-bond. Do they have information that other traders are missing? Perhaps they have some insight into what will happen after Donald Trump gets inaugurated?
  22. Regardless, they are clearly strong buyers of safe haven francs, yen, T-bonds, and decent buyers of gold.
  23. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. 
  24. I’ve been pretty emphatic that the $18 area is for buying GDX and $22 is for selling. From both a technical and fundamental perspective, it’s logical that gold stocks pause here ahead of the US jobs report. This pause will help them launch a second and more successful assault on the $22 - $22.50 resistance zone, after the report is released!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Jan 3, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com
email for questions: stewart@gracelandupdates.com 

....related:Gold: Getting There A Little At A Time


Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable reading time.

Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: Getting There A Little At A Time

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Monday, 02 January 2017 07:53

One of life's hardest-to-learn but most necessary lessons is that things usually take a lot longer to work out than you'd like them to.

That's where the sayings "Being too early is the same thing as being wrong" and "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" come from.

A current case in point is gold. After the metal's decade-long bull market, a correction was inevitable. But when it finally came, rather than being short and cathartic it was long and grinding, stretching from 2012 through 2015 and causing many who got back in prematurely to eventually walk away in disgust.

Then, after a nice pop in the first half of 2016, came the current long, slow-mo correction that's fraying the nerves of remaining gold-bugs.

This latest correction may not be over, but -- based on the Commitment of Traders Report (COT) - the bottom is getting closer. For previous posts on this subject, see here and here.

The COT gives a snapshot of what the big players in the "paper gold" market are up to. On the following chart the gray bars represent long positions held by speculators such as hedge funds, and the red bars denote net short positions held by "commercial" players like fabricators and big banks. The speculators are usually wrong at major turning points, so when they're extremely long, gold usually falls and vice versa. The commercials tend to take the other side of speculators' bets, and so are generally right at the big turns.

At the beginning of 2016, the speculators were hyper-pessimistic, as represented by a net long position of more or less zero. Gold then rose for six straight months. By July the speculators were overexcited - and overextended -- setting the stage for the correction that's been grinding along ever since.

43367 a



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Miners Are Running Out of Metal: Five Charts Explaining Why

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Posted by Bloomberg

on Friday, 30 December 2016 08:50

 

  • Exploration proving more difficult and firms have cut capex
  • Gold mining CEOs turning to deals to combat dwindling reserves

 

Gold’s had a roller-coaster year, surging as much as 30 percent before giving up the bulk of those gains. But one trend has been consistent: mining companies are finding it harder to dig up more of the precious metal.

The following charts show why, and what that means for the industry.

Dwindling Discoveries

Even though producers’ exploration budgets surged more than 10-fold to $6 billion a year in the decade to 2012, new finds are in decline. The amount of gold discovered last year was down 85 percent compared with 2006.

-1x-1

....continue reading & view more charts HERE

....related:

Gold: A Significant Rally Begins



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold: A Significant Rally Begins

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Wednesday, 28 December 2016 07:49

Dec 27, 2016

  1. Gold may be in the first stage of a significant rally. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge.
  2. Gold has burst out of the short term down channel, and the recent action of the “smart money” commercial traders is very positive.
  3. Please  click here now. This COT report for gold shows the commercial traders not only covering short positions in the latest reporting period, but also adding a nice number of longs!
  4. This is very encouraging news. Regardless, amateur gold enthusiasts need to buy dips and sell rallies, to mimic the smart money professional traders.
  5. On that note, please  click here now.  Double-click to enlarge.
  6. Gold has already rallied about $25 from the $1125 area lows, and the commercial traders are almost certainly booking partial profits now. As the saying goes, the early bird gets the golden worm!
  7. I have been getting emails from some gold community investors who are worried that the Indian government is conducting a “war on gold”.To a degree, that’s true, but all governments tend to prefer debt and fiat to gold. 
  8. Gold empowers citizens and debt and fiat money allow governments to present themselves as grandiose “people helpers”. 
  9. Narendra Modi is India’s prime minister. In my professional opinion, he’s obsessed with turning India into what is really best described as a giant GDP growth factory.
  10. Individual freedom in India doesn’t seem very important to Modi. His focus is on achieving double digit GDP growth, and creating an enormous middle class.
  11. Modi clearly embraces the “end justifies the means mantra”, but I don’t think it’s negative for gold demand, except perhaps in the very short term.  
  12. In the big picture, Modi’s actions are very supportive for higher gold demand. Simply put, as citizens get higher incomes, they buy more gold. Some is bought in the open market, and some is bought in the black market.
  13. The short term picture for India-focused gold investors is starting to look better as well. Please  click here now. While nobody should celebrate before there is an actual duty cut, where there is smoke, there is fire.
  14. Modi looks like a hypocrite if he talks about reducing black money while keeping high gold import duty policies that promote smuggling. The upcoming February budget could see India’s finance ministry finally unveil a cut of the duty.
  15. Meantime, from a geopolitical perspective, tensions may be set to increase between Japan and China, with US debt being the catalyst. 
  16. Some analysts note that Japan has now surpassed China, and is the largest holder of US T-bonds.
  17. The term “surpassed” is a bit misleading. To understand why that’s true, please  click here now. Japan actually sold Treasuries recently, although China sold more. 
  18. China and Japan have a longstanding dispute over a military issue that has never been resolved. I’m not concerned about Donald Trump causing a deterioration in US-China relations, but I’m very concerned that he could ignite a significant rise in China-Japan tensions. That’s good news for gold.
  19. A crash in the US stock market is possible early in 2017, and it could happen soon after Trump is inaugurated as president. That crash would create an institutional surge out of the US dollar, and into the yen and gold.
  20. That crash could cause Japan and China to sell even more Treasuries, as their stock markets would follow the US market. 
  21. The current time frame may turn out to be the calm before a major 2017 global markets storm!
  22. Please  click here now. With inflation starting to perk up while mine reserves dwindle, gold stocks are poised to become a highly sought after asset for the rest of this decade.
  23. On that note, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. From both a fundamental and technical perspective, GDX looks superb. There’s a bull wedge in play, and the price is gapping higher in early morning trading. 
  24. GDX looks set to make a beeline straight for $22. The bottom line is that there’s really no better way for a global community investor to start their day, than by watching gold stocks move higher! 

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

...related from MT?Ed: Strongest Gold Buy Signal In 16 Years



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Gold & Precious Metals

Strongest Gold “Buy” Signal In 16 Years

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Posted by Dave Kranzler

on Friday, 23 December 2016 09:17

When gold is accepted as the medium of exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are defined in terms of gold the economies of the different countries act as one-so long as there are no restraints on trade or on the movement of capital. – Alan Greenspan, “Gold And Economic Freedom,” 1966

Anyone who was involved in the financial markets during Greenspan’s tenure as Chairman of the Federal Reserve would be shocked to see that comment above coming from Greenspan. He was, after all, the king of the printing press until his successor, Ben Bernanke took over the role of chief money and credit creator.

....continue Reading HERE



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