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Gold & Precious Metals

"Gold: Buy Modestly, But Buy!"

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 29 November 2016 07:02

November 29, 2016

  1.      It’s been a wild ride in 2016 for most gold community investors. Rather than wane, the violent price action may be about to accelerate.
  2.      Please click here now. Top Goldman analysts are open to a stunning move in the oil price over the next 24 hours, as a key OPEC meeting takes place! 
  3.      Tactics? Oil is likely to move higher in 2017 regardless of the outcome of this meeting, so I want to be a buyer of any significant price weakness.
  4.      To view my current buy and sell zones for oil, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily bars oil chart.
  5.      There may not be any OPEC-related pullback to my $40 area buy zone, but oil price enthusiasts should be decent buyers there, if it happens.
  6.      If oil moves as violently as Goldman is predicting, gold could also experience some wild price movement. 
  7.      Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge. Note the buy zones and my 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator that I use exclusively on daily charts for major asset classes.
  8.      A beautiful buy signal for that oscillator is very near at hand!


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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Options Traders Most Bearish Since July 2015

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Monday, 28 November 2016 09:04

After a year of almost uninterrupted bullish bias in precious metals options markets, gold skews (the 'price' of put protection over calls) has exploded to its highest (most bearish) leves since July 2015.

As Bloomberg reports, bearish options hedging against a 10 percent price drop in the biggest gold exchange-traded fund cost the most since July 2015 relative to calls betting on a 10 percent jump.

20161125 gold2 0

 

....continue reading HERE

 

...related: The Gold Bears Are in For a Massive Surprise



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Gold & Precious Metals

The Gold Bears Are in For a Massive Surprise

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Posted by Graham Summers - Phoenix Capital Research

on Thursday, 24 November 2016 08:41

If you’re serious about making money from investing in the financial markets, you need to be able to read the crowd… and go against it.

Let me give you an example… Currently one of the consensus views is that the Gold rally is over and gold is dead as an investment.

Right off the bat, you know this sentiment is at an extreme. Despite its recent sell-off, Gold is still crushing stocks in terms of performance year to date. 

 image002

This is a massive “tell”: people believe Gold is doing very badly when in reality it’s nearly doubling stocks’ performance year to date.

Another “tell” is technical in nature. Investor sentiment is acting as though Gold is dead… when in reality Gold is both oversold and about to stage a bullish crossover (when the 50-wma breaks above the 200-wma).



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold’s Upside and Downside Targets

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Posted by PremPrzemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits

on Wednesday, 23 November 2016 09:51

Posted Nov. 22, 2016, 11:54 AM

In yesterday’s alert we wrote that staying on the sidelines appeared to be a good idea for the next several days as the short-term outlook became more bullish, even though the medium-term outlook became more bearish (due to the USD’s breakout). Actually, at the moment when our yesterday’s alert was sent, gold’s and silver’s prices were below the entry prices, so the position was closed at a profit.

In yesterday’s session, not much changed – the USD declined a bit, while the opposite was the case with gold, silver and mining stocks. Nothing extraordinary took place.

However, today’s pre-market trading is more interesting. The USD Index is basically flat, but silver jumped up almost $0.30, showing strength. Gold is up as well. The above relative price moves confirm that the precious metals sector really wants to move higher in the short term, and that until it does, daily declines will be limited. Let’s take a look at the USD Index chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com). 

Click Chart for Huge Image

1

What’s likely to happen next? The USD Index is likely to verify the breakout above the previous highs. The support levels are between 100 (an extremely round number) and 100.60 (intra-day December 2015 high), which is a quite wide area, so the specific target is unclear, so it doesn’t seem that we can base our entry point in metals and miners on the USD Index alone. We can, however, look for confirmations from the precious metals themselves once the USD is within the target area.

Two very important confirmations would be: the miners’ underperformance and silver’s very short-term outperformance. Another thing would be gold moving a bit above its 300-day moving average (for instance to $1,250).

Click Chart for Huge Image



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold's 2016 Bull Market Moving Off Course

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 21 November 2016 06:58

While we expected additional weakness in Gold and gold stocks (weeks ago) we did not quite expect the kind of selling the sector experienced in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory. The market reacted by sending bond yields dramatically higher which resulted in stronger real interest rates, which is fundamentally negative for precious metals. This has created significant technical damage in the sector and has potentially thrown the 2016 bull off course.

Our first chart shows how and when this bull market went off course. Below we compare the current rebound in Gold to some of those from the past. As you can see, the 2016 rebound was well on course until the second half of September. That is when historical bull markets pushed higher. Unfortunately, Gold broke lower and has continued to trade lower. It has diverged from its bull market course.

Nov182016Goldbullsan

Our next chart pertains to the bull market in gold stocks and specifically the HUI Gold Bugs Index. The chart shows that this needs to be an important low for the bull market to remain intact. While I expect a rebound very soon, I have some doubts that the low will hold.

Nov182016HUIbulls

Next we compare the current correction in the HUI to past bull market corrections. Like the last analog, this one shows the gold stocks need to begin a big rebound for their bull market to remain intact. Both analogs show that the gold stocks cannot go lower from here if they are to remain in a bull market.

Nov182016HUIcorrections

Both history and current price action argue that Gold and gold stocks are at risk of a big decline if they lose the current lows. If Gold loses $1200/oz then it could drop quickly to $1080/oz or even $1050/oz, the major low. The same can be said for GDX which bounced from its 62% retracement and 80-week moving average at $20. Below I have sketched out how this bearish scenario could play out. Note, this sketch is purely subjective and subject to change. 

Nov182016goldgdxproj

Unless Gold and gold stocks hold current levels and form an important low then the 2016 bull market has gone off course. At present, the evidence favors the bearish scenario which has the sector trading lower in the months ahead. We could chalk this up to a fundamental change (which I consider to be temporary) coupled with the potential for a spike in the US Dollar. Investors are advised to de-risk their portfolios during the coming rebound and prepare for a better buying opportunity at the end of winter.

The Daily Gold

....related:

Speculators Are Finally Bailing Out Of Gold – And That’s A Good Thing



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