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Gold & Precious Metals

Rising Interest Rates Could Present A Problem For Risk Assets

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Posted by The Felder Report

on Monday, 10 July 2017 07:50

Exactly one year ago I wrote, “long bonds enter the blowoff stage” (and “a few more thoughts on the long bond blowoff“). Since then the 30-year treasury yield has risen 40% and the 10-year treasury yield has risen 75%. This is an important development for investors to take note of because when interest rates have risen this rapidly in the past it has typically led to some stormy weather for risk assets.

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Gold & Precious Metals

The Reason Why Gold And Silver Have Frustrated Investors Since 2011

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Friday, 07 July 2017 06:52

The biggest frustration to many precious metals investors, is why have the gold and silver prices under-performed the market since 2011?  Actually, for gold it was since 2012.  Even though gold hit a new record high of $1,900 in September 2011, its average annual price was higher in 2012 at $1,669 compared to $1,571 the prior year.

Regardless, the precious metals analysts back in 2012 were forecasting the market was going to experience even higher gold and silver prices, especially after the Fed announced QE 3 at the end of 2012.  However, the precious metals community was taken by surprise as the gold and silver prices were hammered at the end of 2012 and into the beginning of 2013:

Gold-Silver-Fall-SEPT-2012-JUNE-2013-768x352

During this period, the gold price fell 30% and the silver price declined nearly 50%.  Did something fundamental change in the markets for investors to suddenly ditch precious metals?  Actually, something really big happened….. THE MARKETS BROKE.  Of course, many in the alternative media believe the financial market died in 2008, but when we look at another indicator… it clearly shows that the markets drastically changed even further in 2012.

The following charts (below) from the article, Deutsche: The Market Broke In 2012, “This Is What Everyone Is Talking About”, show that the market is totally under-pricing RISK by orders of magnitude never seen before.  Now, when I say “under-pricing risk”, all that means is that the market has no idea of the dangers ahead.  It is similar to someone driving a car that doesn’t realize the engine is burning up and the brakes don’t work because the WARNING LIGHTS aren’t functioning.  So, the poor slob continues to speed down the road, without out a care in the world… until the car blows up or he heads over a cliff.

In the Deutsche Bank article linked above, analyst Aleksandar Kocic providing actual evidence that the WARNING LIGHTS in the market are no longer working:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Pause vs. Reversal

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 06 July 2017 06:28

Briefly: In our opinion, full (100% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.

Gold and silver didn’t continue Monday’s plunge, but they didn’t erase it either. Have we just seen a reversal or just a normal, healthy pause after a sharp move?

The former seems more likely and the price levels that were reached (and those that were not) provide the details. Let’s move right to the charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

Gold

pr up 2017 07 06 1

Gold moved back up on an intra-day basis, but finally ended the session without significant changes. At the moment of writing these words, gold is trading at about $1,223, so the situation didn’t change much overnight either. Please note that the volume that accompanied yesterday’s back and forth movement was significant, but the same was the case on June 14th – back then it was only a pause within the decline. Consequently, it doesn’t seem that the sizable volume is a bullish sign at this time.

The RSI indicator is close to 30, however, the comeback of the regular gold-USD link and the situation in the USD and Euro Indices seems to be much more important. After all, if gold is to move below the 2015 low this winter, then it’s about time it started a bigger decline, and during bigger moves, the daily RSI can stay below 30 for prolonged periods (November and December 2016 serve as examples).

Silver



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Gold & Precious Metals

UBS Says Investors “Should Be Buying Gold Near $1,200”

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Posted by Investing News Network

on Wednesday, 05 July 2017 05:10

ubsThe Swiss banking giant is recommending that investors buy the yellow metal for insurance.

UBS Group’s (NYSE:UBS) wealth management unit says gold will probably trade between $1,200 and $1,300 an ounce in the short-term, and is recommending that investors buy the yellow metal for insurance.

“We’re not saying we have a bullish bias; we’re not saying we have a bearish bias,” Wayne Gordon, the firm’s executive director for commodities and foreign exchange, told Bloomberg

“We’re saying that tactically, people should be buying it somewhere near $1,200 and selling it again somewhere near $1,300, and it’s because we have a view that real rates go sideways. So the pickup in nominal rates will be equally matched by the pickup in inflation,” Gordon added.



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Gold & Precious Metals

"Buy Gold Stocks Now"

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 04 July 2017 10:26

Jul 4, 2017

  1. 2017jul4gold1The latest gold price action is a near-perfect reflection of the current market fundamentals.
  2. Please  click chart now. Double-click to enlarge.
  3. Gold has arrived at my $1220 - $1200 conservative investor buy zone.
  4. The market is seasonally soft in the summer months, but two key price drivers are poised to create the next rally.
  5. The first is the US jobs report. It’s scheduled for release on Friday at 8:30AM. Market participants are going to be looking at wage price inflation as much as they are looking at the total number of jobs created.
  6. Gold has a rough general tendency to soften ahead of this report, and then rally strongly following its release. 
  7. The $1220 - $1200 support zone is an ideal price area for gold bugs to buy in anticipation of a post jobs report rally!
  8. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this seasonal spot gold chart, courtesy of Dimitri Speck.
  9. This chart should be used by all gold bugs as a key reference chart to understand gold’s seasonality.
  10. In a nutshell, the summer is the best time to accumulate gold, and February is a great time to book some profits.
  11. The current price softness is seasonally normal, and it’s exacerbated by the decision of bullion banks to halt imports into India.
  12. They decided to halt imports until they got clarification about applying the new GST regime to the gold market. It appears that June imports were only about five tons.
  13. It’s almost impossible for gold to rally with Indian bullion banks importing no gold, but there is some great news.
  14. To view that news, please  click here now. Imports are set to resume next week, and that resumption will coincide with upside pressure on the gold price that typically follows the US jobs report release.
  15. “I personally feel India is poised for double-digit growth, GST is an aid to it, even without GST we would have reached there. If you ask my personal judgment, post 2019-2020 we are poised for double digit growth.” - Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, one of India’s top investors, July 4, 2017.
  16. Gold demand in India is in a basing zone, and I expect the country’s gold market infrastructure to become as good as China’s in just the next three years.
  17. A floor of double digit GDP growth in India is going to create a “bull era” in gold demand growth. Simply put, it’s the greatest time in history to be an investor in the precious metals asset class.
  18. Please  click here now. In any business cycle, growth generally peaks as the cycle peaks. 
  19. The current US business cycle is about eight years old, and growth is quite strong, relatively speaking. This strength should now begin to create wage inflation, which is good news for gold stock enthusiasts.
  20. To understand why I use the phrase “relatively speaking”, please  click here now. Germany and China have the biggest current account surpluses in the world. The US has the biggest deficit.
  21. It’s a “no brainer” to see why Europe’s most powerful nation (Germany) is joining forces with China. A current account surplus “cartel” is essentially being created. This is going to put enormous pressure on the Trump administration to devalue the dollar against other fiat currencies, and perhaps directly against gold.
  22. While gold is seasonally weak, investors should not let this distract them from the fact that gold is fundamentally and technically in a key buying area now. It’s poised to see very solid appreciation in the years ahead.
  23. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. In a deflationary crisis, gold and silver bullion are the best performers. Gold stocks tend to look like wet noodles, and silver stocks can look even worse. As the winds of inflation begin to pick up against a background of possible dollar devaluation, the mining stocks will be the leaders. 
  24. I view the $23 - $18 area for GDX as one of the most important accumulation price zones in the history of markets. Investors who take action here are poised to be rewarded with gains that are not just big, but here to stay!  

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Jul 4, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com



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