Gold & Precious Metals

A “Silver” Lining In The Metals Market

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Posted by Avi Gilburt - ElliottwaveTrader.net

on Monday, 13 November 2017 06:19

imagesWhen I look at the 3 charts that I follow in the metals complex, they seem to be telling a different story today, at least in their micro structures.

Silver seems to have broken out of its downtrend, and can be viewed as having completed wave i of its (c) wave to the target box above.  GLD seems to be stuck in neutral, with the same “potential” structure as silver, but without as much clarity to its micro count as silver has potentially presented.

And, then we are left with the GDX.  As long as the GDX remains below the 23.05 level, it still has a smaller degree set up to test the 22 region before a rally may ensue.

So, on Friday (Nov 3), GDX has now dropped down and provided us the lower low I was looking for this past week right into the support region I noted last weekend between 21.95-22.30.  Moreover, both gold and silver have now pulled back from their rallies begun this past week, and have still retained a set up to rally in the upcoming week.

Based upon the smaller degree wave counts, it certainly still seems as though the miners and the metals are potentially in different patterns, with the upcoming week set up to provide us further confirmation of this potential.

As I have noted for the last several weeks, silver really seems to be the more telling of the metals charts.  I have been following a potential count which suggests that a (c) wave rally within a b-wave of wave ii is taking shape.  And, I have noted that as long as we hold over the 16.40-16.50 support region, we can rally back up towards the September highs. 



Gold & Precious Metals

Gold & The Big Four: Slam Dunk

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Thursday, 09 November 2017 06:31

Nov 7, 2017

  1. The synergistic relationship between gold and economic growth is quite healthy, and poised to become even more healthy in 2018 – 2019.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous South Korean stock market ETF chart.
  3. Big name Western money managers are finally racing to move money into Asian markets, and this is great news for both gold and global stock markets.
  4. For several years I’ve recommended that the gold community slightly reduce (but not drop) their focus on gold’s Western world fear trade and increase their focus on the Eastern stock markets and the love trade for gold.
  5. South Korea’s stock market sports 50% earnings growth and a P/E ratio of just 10! Japan’s market is also red hot, and so are the markets of China and India.
  6. US markets have risen strongly, but with anemic economic growth and nosebleed valuations. Growth is vastly stronger in Asia, but without European and US money manager participation, Asian stock markets have previously languished.
  7. This situation has changed dramatically in 2017, and 2018 should see an acceleration of this new trend. 
  8. The bottom line: American markets are hot but overvalued. Asian markets are red hot but not overvalued.
  9. I own ETFs (and some individual stocks) in the “Big Four” Asian markets; India, China, Japan, and Korea. I urge all Western gold bugs to “get with the (good) times”. The fear trade for gold will never disappear, but it’s a new era, and this new era is dominated by Asia. 
  10. Investors should be very comfortable owning Asian stock markets and gold… at the same time. The bottom line: America isn’t out, but Asia is in! 
  11. When times are good (and they are now very good in Asia), Asians buy more gold. Exponentially more. Chinese demand reflects this fact. It’s rising again; demand is up almost 20% over 2016, and poised to rise even more strongly in 2018.
  12. Please  click here now. Next, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily gold chart.
  13. Technically, gold’s rally ended in early September because of significant resistance at $1362 (the demonetization night high). 
  14. Fundamentally, gold peaked then because of the Modi government’s August 23rd launch of the hideous PMLA program. That launch immediately sent Indian imports plunging towards the zero marker. When Indian gold imports sink, the price of gold sinks. It’s that simple.
  15. The good news: The government has rescinded PMLA and imports are growing again. Wedding season is beginning and Chinese New Year buy season approaches. As a result, the price is showing firmness, and a gold price rally appears imminent.
  16. I’ve predicted that Indian GDP growth should hit 10% by 2020. America’s could fall to 1% by then while US inflation starts surging and gold mine production shrinks noticeably. This is an epic win-win situation for gold.
  17. Sentiment in the gold and hedge fund communities is now generally negative, as it always is when significant rallies begin. 
  18. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. There’s a bear wedge in play on this dollar-yen chart now, which is more good news for all gold price enthusiasts. The commercial traders are also adding to their short positions in the dollar against both the yen and the Swiss franc.
  19. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this GDX chart. There’s a modest head and shoulders top pattern in play, and that has a lot of old timer gold bugs nervous. 
  20. Unfortunately, these old timers may be too obsessed with the Western fear trade era of the past, and missing out on the Asian stock markets and gold price synergy that defines the new gold bull era. 
  21. Minor H&S top patterns like this one are irrelevant in the big picture, and this one may be getting technically voided anyways.
  22. On that note, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. This is just what the gold bug doctor ordered, to spread some bull era cheer! 
  23. A fabulous bull wedge pattern is destroying the H&S top pattern, which makes sense given the great fundamental action taking place in India and China.
  24. Owning the “Big Four” stock markets of India, China, Korea, and Japan while engorging on gold, silver, gold stocks (with some bitcoin for extra wealth building fun), is perhaps the greatest “no-brainer” investor play in the history of markets!



Nov 7, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com


Gold & Precious Metals

Silver’s Sign and USD’s Upcoming Reversal

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profits

on Wednesday, 08 November 2017 06:29

Most of technical analysis that one can read about gold and gold stocks is based on these markets alone. This is quite strange given the multitude of intermarket relationships, but still that’s the case. While it is true that looking at the performance of a given market is the most important thing that one can do when estimating the future performance of a given asset, it doesn’t mean that it’s all there is to it. Conversely, looking at the bigger picture and considering the less known factors can give investors and traders extra insight necessary to gain the Holy Grail of trading – the edge. So, we thought that you might appreciate a discussion of factors that are not as popular as the analysis of the precious metals market on its own, but that is still likely to have an important effect on its price.

In today’s free analysis, we discuss three such issues: the non-USD silver price (the average of silver prices in terms of currencies other than the U.S. dollar), the Dow to gold ratio and the long-term USD Index picture. The latter is quite often analyzed, but such analyses are generally conducted based on only the most recent data and thus what we discuss should put such comments in proper perspective. In other words, it should make sure that one doesn’t miss the forest for individual trees. Let’s start with the former (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com):




Gold & Precious Metals

Time to sell gold? The Mr. Elliott we know thinks so…

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Tuesday, 07 November 2017 06:31

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 6.41.40 AM









Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 6.41.58 AM

Our rendition of an Elliott Wave chart shown on the next page says it’s time to sell gold; i.e. once minor corrective rally Wave ii completes—that may be today). Targets lower are 1,210; then 1180-level.  And if the US dollar catches a major bid, there is scope to test the swing low of 1,123 from mid-December 2016 (gold vs. dollar weekly chart page 3).  Note: The 55-week gold to US dollar index correlation is a whopping -84.3%; i.e. as gold goes up, the dollar goes down, and vice versa. 

Gold Futures Daily Wave Chart 

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 6.46.07 AM

Gold Futures vs.. US Dollar Index Weekly Chart 

Screen Shot 2017-11-07 at 6.48.00 AM

We should find out soon whether Mr.. Elliott is correct..


Jack Crooks, President, Black Swan Capital



772 - 349 - 6883 / Twitter: bswancap     




Gold & Precious Metals

Precious Metals

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Monday, 06 November 2017 06:13



OCTOBER 26 , 2017 

Our September 14th Pivot noted that the decline in the DX seemed to be basing. In which case, as the dollar recovered, the sector would sell off.

Our conclusion was that the Precious Metals sector could be much cheaper by late in the year.

This year's high for the GDX was 25.58 at the first of September. This week's decline to 22.25 has taken out the 20-Week ema at 23.22.

To look to the brighter side, the decline could diminish the old mojo that the Fed is evil and will drive the dollar down. This of course will drive gold, for those who know someone at the CIA, to "Ten Thousand Dollars!".

Highly unlikely.

Further on the brighter side, the completion of this financial bubble will set up a real cyclical bull market for gold and gold stocks.

By "real" we mean that gold's real price and gold mining profitability will increase, which is one of the features of a post-bubble contraction.

This could get underway early in 2018.

In the meantime, we will be watching for the buying "window".




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