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Gold & Precious Metals

Silver’s… Comeback and Other Important Signals

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski

on Tuesday, 25 April 2017 07:02

The most prominent action in the precious metals market that we saw last week, took place in silver – the white metal closed the week below the important long-term support/resistance line, thus invalidating the previous breakout. However, there’s more to the precious metals market than just the action in silver. In today’s free gold analysis, we discuss both the developments in silver and other factors.

Let’s start with silver itself (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Upleg Momentum Building

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Posted by Adam Hamilton - Zeal Intelligence Intelligence

on Monday, 24 April 2017 06:37

Gold’s young upleg just enjoyed a major upside breakout, bolstering strong technicals and heralding a coming Golden Cross buy signal.  Investors have started aggressively buying gold again after record-high stock markets distracted them.  This gold upleg’s upside momentum is really building, portending accelerating gains in coming months.  Yet sentiment remains poor, with traders still quite bearish on gold.

Virtually no one is excited about gold these days.  Mainstream investors continue to ignore it like usual, while contrarians largely expect a lackluster sideways grind at best.  This apathy is the natural result of gold’s recent consolidation between late February and mid-April.  With 6+ weeks seeing no net progress, there was little to spark any enthusiasm.  Thus gold gradually faded from speculators’ and investors’ radars.

That’s exactly why consolidations and corrections exist, to rebalance sentiment.  At preceding interim highs, greed grows too intense to be sustainable.  So subsequent drifts or selloffs bleed off this greed, replacing it with apathy or fear.  That forces out most marginal traders, paving the way for the next major rally higher.  That looks to have started just over a week ago in gold, as evidenced by multiple indicators.

Gold just surged to a major technical breakout above its key 200-day moving average, which greatly strengthens its latest uptrend.  Technically-oriented traders carefully watch price action relative to this most important of moving averages.  200dma breakouts following correction-magnitude selloffs are powerful buy signals.  So funds have already started moving serious capital back into gold since that breakout.

Gold’s technicals and fundamentals are both very bullish, contrary to the lingering bearish sentiment still dogging this metal.  Let’s start on the price-action side, since that is kindling investment demand.  This first chart simply looks at gold along with its key moving averages during its young bull market birthed near the end of 2015.  Gold is now in this bull’s second major upleg, and momentum is really building.

Zeal042117A



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Gold & Precious Metals

French Elections Preview and Gold

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Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Friday, 21 April 2017 09:13

APRIL 21, 2017, 10:40 AM

The first round of presidential elections in France is held on Sunday. What can we expect from that event and how can it affect the gold market?

In the recent edition of the Market Overview, we wrote that centrist Emmanuel Macron and nationalistic Marine Le Pen were expected to move on the next round. However, the situation has complicated a bit since then. As you can see on the chart below, actually four candidates have pretty good chances to advance to the next round. It’s because both hard-left Jean-Luc Melenchon and conservative Francois Fillon have gained momentum recently.

Chart 1: Opinion polls for the first round of voting (smoothed 14-day weighted moving average) updated daily from Wikipedia.

1-french-election

It’s good news for the gold market, as it means higher uncertainty. Now, Marine Le Pen is not the only terrifying candidate in town. Jean-Luc Melenchon’s economic program is similarly frightening for the financial markets. For example, he proposed to impose a 100 percent tax on those who earn above €400,000. Yup, you guessed, he is a commie and a fan of Hugo Chavez.



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Gold & Precious Metals

SPECIAL WEBINAR - Mark Leibovit

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Posted by MoneyTalks Editor

on Thursday, 20 April 2017 16:09

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  • Don't miss the next big rush in the cannabis / marijuana sector.
  • Where is crude oil and natural gas headed?
  • What about gold and silver?

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This is an exceptional opportunity to hear TIMER DIGEST's top market-timer and internationally recognized expert in stock-picking and market forecasting and be able to communicate your questions directly to him during the Webinar. It is live. It is special. And, you will hear his money making ideas and strategies...

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Gold & Precious Metals

An In Depth Look at the Precious Metals Complex

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Posted by Rambus Chartology

on Thursday, 20 April 2017 06:12

Before we look at tonight’s charts I would like to thank Sir Plunger for putting on the short oil trade this week while I was recovering from surgery. You won’t find a more through and in depth look at oil than what Sir Plunger offered. And wouldn’t you know it his timing as usual was impeccable. Oil dropped almost 4% today.

Now lets turn our attention to the sector which many members have a love hate relationship with.

There is a potential new pattern forming on some of the precious metals stock indexes which is only coming to light today. Before today’s price action there was only a guess of what may be forming with no confirmation. After today’s big gap breakout another piece of the puzzle is falling into place. Nothing is ever guaranteed when it comes to the markets, so all we can do is get the odds in our favor and try to recognize a potential pattern as soon as possible. Once you think you may have something figured out you then put together a game plan and work it until it either plays out or fails.

Lets start with the 60 minute chart for the GDX which shows the now completed bearish rising wedge. We got the H&S top which formed at the top of the rising wedge as the 4th reversal point making the rising wedge a consolidation pattern to the downside. It’s still possible we could see a backtest to the 24 area before the impulse leg down begins in earnest, but there are no guarantees. Note the inverse H&S bottom that formed in March which reversed the decline from the August 2016 high, a H&S at the bottom and a H&S at the top, both of which are reversal patterns.

gdx-60-2

This next chart is a one year look we were watching during the big impulse leg up out of the January 2016 low to the August 2016 high. Here you can see another H&S top which reversed the 2016 rally. After forming several smaller consolidation patterns the GDX bottomed out in December of 2016. That 2 month rally produced the first blue bearish rising wedge with the 200 day ma offering resistance. If you recall we went short on the backtest to the underside of the rising wedge until the Fed announcement, which spiked GDX higher at the beginning of our current and smaller blue rising wedge. Today we shorted the PM stock indexes again, as the price action is in a similar spot to the bigger blue bearish rising wedge.



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