Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Breaks Downtrend, Sort Of

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Posted by Tom McClellan via 321Gold

on Monday, 28 May 2012 08:26


American gold traders see gold prices in a downtrend, and wonder whether the December 2011 bottom will hold as a support level. There is not much to like in the chart of gold prices, as priced in U.S. dollars.

But European gold traders see a much different picture. The chart plot of gold prices measured in euros has now broken its declining tops line, and appears to be in a much more favorable configuration.

So who is right?

....read the full analysis and charts HERE




Gold & Precious Metals

Dennis Gartman: Gold Puts In Short-Term Low

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Posted by Dennis Gartman via Hard Assets Investor

on Friday, 25 May 2012 06:52

Gold guru says reduced short and long positions, need for cash have pushed the yellow metal down to a new short-term bottom.

Hard Assets Investor: What’s your take on what gold is doing right now?

Dennis Gartman: A lot of people have been taken out of their positions. You can see the change in the makeup of open interest. Speculators have reduced their positions by more than 100,000, 125,000 contracts. Their long positions have been reduced to minimal levels. On the other hand, institutions that tend to be naturally short have reduced their positions by the same amount. So the stronger hands are less short; the weaker hands are demonstrably less long. And I think you’ve seen a low.

HAI:Gold also doesn’t seem to have its inflation hedge?

Gartman: Well, first of all, there’s not much inflation to be concerned about, at least if you believe the government’s statistics, and the market has to take the government’s statistics as face value. So if you’re looking at gold as a hedge against inflation, there isn’t any inflation.

And it is bothersome also that if you look at the monetary aggregates — and the one aggregate that I look at is the St. Louis Fed’s adjusted-monetary base. It has been falling since last June, and falling rather sharply. Those who think that inflation is going to be created by rising monetary aggregates are simply wrong. That’s not a problem to be concerned about for the reasonable foreseeable future. And to be quite honest, the foreseeable future is probably — let’s see, this is Monday the 21st — the foreseeable future is Monday, the 28th.

HAI: What is the biggest influence on gold right now?

Gartman: I think it’s uncertainty and marginal liquidation. I think it’s weakness in stocks that has forced the selling of something and I think stocks are inordinately cheap. I don’t think they’re going to get much cheaper. As stocks have fallen, sometimes investors are being forced to sell things they would not like to sell. And you almost always can sell gold. It’s always liquid.

HAI: What is your take on the Treasury market right now?

Gartman: Everybody thinks it’s ready to drop, and it continues to go up. It continues to make newer highs. Rates continue to make newer lows. And anybody who is short has had uncommon discomfort over the course of the past three years, two years, one year, one month. You can write this down: The bond market will break when it breaks. And it won’t break an instant before then. And if you miss the top by a month and a half, if you miss the top by two months, if you miss the top in the bond market by six months, you’ll be fine.

HAI: What do you see as a safe-haven investment right now?

Gartman: I’m amused that people call gold a safe haven. It’s not a safe haven.

HAI: Why do you say that, because of the volatility?

Gartman: It’s because of the volatility, absolutely. Safe should be nonvolatile. There are very few things that are nonvolatile right now. The only thing that seems to be nonvolatile is Treasury securities of less than one-year duration.

...read page 2 & 3 HERE


Gold & Precious Metals

"Big Buyers are Buying Gold & Silver Stocks with Both Hands"

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Posted by Ed Steer's Gold & Silver Daily

on Thursday, 24 May 2012 10:06

The gold stocks gapped down at the open, but rallied back to unchanged within ten minutes...and then sold off until about 10:20 a.m...which turned out to be the low for the day...and it was onwards and ever upwards from there, even though the low for gold came minutes after 12 o'clock noon Eastern time.  The HUI finished on its absolute high of the day...up 4.13%.  As I've mentioned just about every day recently, some very big [with a capital 'B']  buyers have been buying gold and silver stocks with both hands ever since the low last week.

HUI 382-470x264

And despite another loss in the metal itself, the silver stocks turned in an incredible performance as well...and Nick Laird's Silver Sentiment Index closed up 3.10%.  Most of the junior producers did much better than that.

....read the whole analysis of Yesterday in Gold & Silver HERE


Gold & Precious Metals

Gold & Silver Long Term Signal

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Posted by JW Jones via Chris Vermulen - The Gold & Oil Guy

on Wednesday, 23 May 2012 08:00

I am a contrarian by nature. I generally try to do the opposite of the crowd in every situation I find myself regardless of whether I am in a movie theater or trading options. As expected, the gold miners have shown relative strength recently. The miners were just absolutely massacred during the recent selloff in equities and precious metals.

CLICK HERE to read the full article



Gold & Precious Metals

Gold bushwhacks bears Commentary: Is a central bank buying?

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Posted by By Peter Brimelow via Peter Grandich

on Tuesday, 22 May 2012 08:21

Gold bushwhacked the bears last week. It’s even got gold bugs talking about gold stocks … again.

After breaking gold bugs’ hearts by plunging to a new low for the year on Thursday, gold violently reversed. Measured by the CME floor close, the benchmark gold contract GCM2 -0.57%  gained $38.30 on the day. It followed up on Friday by adding another $17, for a two-day gain of 3.31%.

The NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index XX:HUI +0.21%  jumped 5.29% in these two days.


Gold stocks’ outperforming the metal is significant, because they have been atrocious this year. As of Friday’s close, HUI was down 20.5% on the year, while gold was actually up 1.4% on the year. Just a restoration of late 2011’s multiples could produce serious gains.

If gold’s reversal sticks, it will be a triumph for the contrary opinion sentiment indicators. Nothing else had been offering any comfort.

The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index has been negative for a record 29 days. The far-sighted Australian bullion commentary The Privateer thinks something really significant has happened.

....read more HERE


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