Gold & Precious Metals

MARC FABER: I'm Bearish On Stocks, Gold And Everything Else

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Posted by Marc Faber via Business Insider

on Tuesday, 02 October 2012 08:11

That said, Marc posted on his blog today that "I WILL NEVER SELL MY GOLD".

gold picture

Marc Faber is still convinced that there's a 100 percent chance of a global recession and that stocks are due for a big sell-off.

While Faber favors gold, he thinks that it too is due for a correction after staging a huge rally.

He spoke with Fox Business News on Friday:

.......read more and watch the entire interview HERE

About Marc Faber

Dr Marc Faber was born in Zurich, Switzerland. He went to school in Geneva and Zurich and finished high school with the Matura. He studied Economics at the University of Zurich and, at the age of 24, obtained a PhD in Economics magna cum laude. Between 1970 and 1978, Dr Faber worked for White Weld & Company Limited in New York, Zurich and Hong Kong. Since 1973, he has lived in Hong Kong. From 1978 to February 1990, he was the Managing Director of Drexel Burnham Lambert (HK) Ltd. In June 1990, he set up his own business, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager.



Gold & Precious Metals

"Bull Trend Intact" for Gold - 3 Views on Silver

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Posted by Mark Leibovit Ben Traynor & Theodore Butler

on Monday, 01 October 2012 07:15


SEPEMBER 29, 2012 - WATCH THIS VIDEO  Ed Note: It is on Silver Manipulation & Mark is bullish as you can see: "Theoretical retracement levels for silver are 31.27, 30.05, 29.63, 28.96 and 28.50. We traded down to only 33.24 on Wednesday. If you don't own the precious metals, anytime is a good time to buy them. The expression goes: 'Don't wait to buy gold - buy gold and wait'! - The VIDEO HERE

The Arguments Against a Silver Manipulation

No matter how convinced I may be that silver has been manipulated downward in price by JPMorgan’s concentrated and rapidly increasing short position in COMEX futures contracts 

....read more by Theodore Butler via Silver Seek HERE

"Bull Trend Intact" for Gold, But "Zero Silver Demand" Seen in India 

by Ben Traynor Bullion Vault

SPOT MARKET gold bullion prices dipped below $1770 an ounce during Monday morning London trading, though they remained in line with the last fortnight's price action, while European stock markets rallied along with the Euro following news late last week that the capital needs of Spain's banks are within existing provisions.

"On the monthly chart, the bull trend remains intact, with uptrend support at $1594 and resistance at $1790, the previous high," says technical analyst Russell Browne at Scotia Mocatta.

"[Gold seems] to have established a base now down at $1740," adds Dave Govett, head of precious metals at brokerage Marex-Spectron.

"But we also seem to have a ceiling in place between $1785 and $1790...I think it will take some help from other markets to break us one way or the other...[but I] think that before long we will see a renewed assault on $1800."

Silver bullion traded around $34.50 an ounce, in line with recent weeks, before easing  towards lunchtime, while other commodities were also flat.

Demand in India is "zero for silver", one dealer told newswire Reuters this morning, adding that "demand is there in gold as it is the season".

US Treasury bond prices gained during this morning's trading, while prices for UK Gilts and German bunds fell after manufacturing data showed ongoing contraction in the Eurozone.

Sales of American Eagle gold investment coins by the US Mint rose by 75% last month compared to August. Last month's sales were however the lowest for September since 2007, and were down nearly 25% from September 2011.

On the gold futures and options market meantime, the speculative net long position of Comex traders – measured as the difference between bullish and bearish contracts – rose to its highest recorded level since 6 September 2011 last Tuesday, weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show.

"There has been a considerable slowing down in long positions added," note the commodities team at Standard Bank."

"As we've seen in the price behavior of gold over the past weeks, it takes very little to spur liquidation."

The results of stress tests published Friday show seven of Spain's banks need to be recapitalized, while another seven lenders passed. Several of those deemed to have inadequate capital to withstand severe market stress have already been nationalized. 

In June, Spain's government agreed a €100 billion credit line from Eurozone rescue funds to fund the recapitalizations, which the stress tests suggest will cost around €60 billion.

Spanish manufacturing activity shrank at an accelerated rate last month, according to purchasing managers index data published Monday. Manufacturing across the Eurozone as a whole also contracted, although less sharply than a month earlier, PMI data show.

The Eurozone unemployment rate remained at 11.4% for the second month in a row in August, its highest level since the financial crisis began in 2007, figures published this morning show.

"There is simply not enough growth in the Euro region to create sufficient jobs and the unemployment rate still has not reached its peak," says Thomas Costerg, economist at Standard Chartered, speaking before the unemployment figures were released.

"A worrying trend is that the number of unemployed is now also expanding in core countries like Germany, which had been rather sheltered up to now."

Here in the UK, manufacturing continued to contract last month, and at a slightly accelerated rate, PMI data published Monday show.

Figures from the Bank of England meantime show a drop in mortgage lending and consumer credit during August, while M4 money supply, the Bank's preferred measure, rose 4.1% in the year to July.

US manufacturing PMI data are published later today.

Over in China, which is today celebrating National Day, manufacturing continued to contract last month, but less sharply than in August, official PMI data show.

China's central bank has twice cut interest rates this year, and has also reduced the amount of reserves banks are required to hold. In addition, Beijing announced a 1 trillion Yuan infrastructure program last month.

"The policies implemented so far have failed to arrest a cyclical economic downturn," says ANZ economist Liu Ligang, adding that "monetary easing and fiscal policy could accelerate" after the Communist Party congress next month, which will see a change of leadership.

"[The Party will want] to maintain social stability and a stable political transition."

"With the political dust finally settled," adds Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ting Lu, 

"Chinese leaders will be forced to shift some efforts to counter the growth slowdown and deteriorating employment."

India, traditionally the world's biggest gold buying nation, is seeing a "booming" trade in recycled gold bullion, after drought forced some in rural areas to sell some of their gold, Reuters reports.

"There won't be new demand from farmers and scrap will flow into the market," says Prithviraj Kothari, president of the Bombay Bullion Association.

Recycled gold accounted for 57 tonnes of India's gold supply last year, equivalent to 6.1% of total 2011 Indian gold demand, data published by the World Gold Council show. The bulk of supply, 969 tonnes, came in the form of imports. Authorities have twice raised the level of duty on gold imports since the start of the year.

"In coming years, 50% of the requirements will be met through scrap," reckons Kothari.

Ben Traynor

Physical gold and Silver Bullion – once complex and expensive, now simple, secure and cost-effective with world #1 online, BullionVault...


Gold value calculator   |   Buy gold online at live prices

Editor of Gold News, the analysis and investment research site from world-leading gold ownership service  BullionVault, Ben Traynor was formerly editor of the Fleet Street Letter, the UK's longest-running investment letter. A Cambridge economics graduate, he is a professional writer and editor with a specialist interest in monetary economics. Ben writes and presents BullionVault's weekly gold market summary on YouTube and can be found on Google+

(c) BullionVault 2012

Please Note: This article is to inform your thinking, not lead it. Only you can decide the best place for your money, and any decision you make will put your money at risk. Information or data included here may have already been overtaken by events – and must be verified elsewhere – should you choose to act on it.


Gold & Precious Metals


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Posted by World Gold Council via Hard Assets Investor

on Saturday, 29 September 2012 09:38

Managing director for the World Gold Council says yellow metal headed for 12thstraight bull year on back of centrals banks, eurozone woes and monetary easing.

Marcus Grubb is the managing director of investment for the London-based World Gold Council, where he leads both investment research and product innovation, as well as marketing efforts surrounding gold's role as an asset class. Grubb has more than 20 years' experience in global banking, including expertise in stocks, swaps and derivatives. After the WGC released its Gold Demand Trends Survey this month, HAI Managing Editor Drew Voros spoke to Grubb about the current state of the gold market and what is behind the yellow metal’s recent run-up.

HardAssetsInvestor: Gold and silver are peaking at three-month highs. What’s behind this? There hasn’t been a lot of news going on in the last couple of months and gold has been pretty stagnant. Why the sudden move?

Marcus Grubb: A number of factors are crystallizing to create a path of least resistance that now is upwards rather than downwards. One of them is the fact that looking into the second half of the year, talking to investors around the world, there’s still a lot of concern about the health of the financial system and the eurozone in particular. And also some challenges in the U.S. around the fiscal cliff and the sustainability of the economic recovery. However, it is clear that the U.S. is recovering better than many other Western countries around the world.

This has led investors to continue to weight towards more cautious asset allocation, increase their exposure to gold. And I think to some degree they may be diversifying from overweight positions in Treasurys and U.S. dollars.

HAI: Are you expecting gold to appreciate for the 12th straight year?

Grubb: Yes, we are expecting this to be a 12th year of the bull market for gold. And we also expect a better second half in terms of the supply-demand dynamics of the market. The first half of the year was quite challenging. We saw a small decline in gold demand. A lot of that was driven out of India. The Indian market has had some specific challenges this year—import tax, strikes in the jewelry sector—and then most importantly, a weak currency against the U.S. dollar, and one of the weakest in Asia against dollars. Gold has been very expensive in India as it’s been consolidating in dollars for about a year. It’s actually been near an all-time high in terms of rupees, which has had a dampening effect on gold demand for the first half.

In the second half of the year, you usually see stronger demand in India. We have the stocking period ahead of the Diwali Festival in October and November. And then we have the end of the monsoon rains before that, and usually you see incomes increase in rural areas and gold purchasing picks up in September, October as well. The rupee will probably still be weak, but we do think you should see a seasonable pickup and demand in India. And that will, among other things, help demand in the second half.

.....read more HERE



Gold & Precious Metals

GOLD: What's It Going To Be: A Dash to $15,000 - Consolidation HERE - or a Float to $2500

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Posted by Various Authors

on Friday, 28 September 2012 00:00

Peter Grandich: A technical look at gold for a moment is worthy at this time:
Gold’s incredible rally after breaking out from a nearly one-year corrective/consolidation phase brought us to a quite overbought state on the daily charts noting by point A. MACD (Point C) has also turned over and the space between price and the 200-Day M.A also suggests consolidation.
I depend far more on the weekly charts since I don’t usually trade gold in and out. Here, we see a much more constructive picture with RS (Point A) not even reaching overbought in this move up. The $1,800 area is key resistance (Point B) and spending some time under it shall only benefit us bulls over the longer term. MACD (Point C) has only begun to move up in earnest.
While some more backing and filling is actually good for those of us who see $2,000+ gold in our future, the “mother” of all bull markets should continue to limit most of its surprises to the upside.
Back in the early part of 2011, I suggested the U.S. Dollar could rally and cause the U.S. Dollar Index to reach the 83-84 area (Point A) but would consider such a move a mere “dead-cat-bounce” in a secular bear market that should eventually lead to new lows below 70 (Point B). With the Euro the single biggest component of the Index and it continues to have its own turmoil, it would come as no surprise to me that the Index stay fairly close to its key moving averages (Point B) for the near-term. Longer-term, there’s only one song to sing for the dollar.
Ed Note: If you want to read about a mining stock that has become Peter Grandich's "single largest holding ever (by far now) go HERE and scroll down to the chart of Oromin Explorations

$15,000 GOLD

by Value investor Jean-Marie Eveillard
Jean-Marie Eveillard who overseas $60 billion was quoted in King World News yesterday saying:
There are people who have figured out that in view of the enormous amount of money printing, which has taken place over the past three or four years, a price of $15,000 an ounce for gold would not be absurd.” “I’m not sure they are right, because I have not studied how they came to that conclusion, but I think what is true is there has been gigantic money printing, which will of course help the price of gold.”

"It's been a fairly quick move over a shortspace of time"

by Citi technical analyst Tom Fitzpatrick

Tom Fitzpatrick has long argued that gold prices could surge. Indeed, he sees prices rallying to $2,500 within the next few months.

However, he cautions that prices are unlikely to see a straight line up, especially considering how quickly prices have surged lately.

"It's been a fairly quick move over a short space of time," Fitzpatrick says. "We also get a bit of a push on the backs of the announcements of additional QE, but we do look to be losing a little bit of momentum short-term.".

"Given where we've come from, gold has risen from almost the $1,500 level to the $1,800 area, could gold retrace back down to $1,675? It's not at all impossible (see chart below). In the overall scheme of things it would just be a decent backfill."


The Simple Case for Gold

by Charles Goyette

Charles Goyette is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, The Dollar Meltdown and the recent blockbuster release, Red and Blue and Broke All Over.

Charles case for Gold is this: Unlimited money printing means only one thing: Unlimited gold prices! 

As Charles says, just connect the dots:

As the U.S. Fed prints dollars in unlimited amounts, it devalues the dollar.

As the European Central Bank prints unlimited amounts of euros, it devalues the euro.

As the Bank of Japan jumps in to print unlimited quantities of yen, it also devalues the yen.

And as these three major currencies go down, so do virtually all other paper currencies in the world. "There’s only ONE kind of money they cannot devalue: GOLD.  As paper currencies fall, gold surges. No two ways about it."






Gold & Precious Metals

Intermarket Explanation for Coming Gold Bubble

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

on Thursday, 27 September 2012 00:00

As we travel to Toronto for the Cambridge House conference, we thought we’d share a few points from our upcoming presentation titled “The Setup for a Gold Bubble.” There are many different ways we can analyze this. By that we mean fundamental triggers, historical ratios, valuations and potential money flows, etcetera can explain the setup for and why this bull market will become a bubble. Today, we focus on intermarket analysis, which is one of our favorite subsets of technical analysis.

For a bull market to become a bubble, it needs to attract excess money flows from other asset classes. In other words, during a bubble, money flows from various asset classes into a single one. Prior to the bubble the market must be an under-owned asset class with room to absorb the massive flows. This chart, from Pierre Lassonde’s recent presentation shows Gold’s share of global asset allocations. It currently is below 3%, which is extremely low in comparison to the 1980 figure of 14% and considering that the bull market is in its 13th year.


Moreover, and this a point others have made, Gold’s increasing share as part of the global financial pie is more a result of an increase in Gold’s value than an increase in actual ownership. Back in 1999-2001, Gold’s share was less than 0.5%. Now it is six or seven times higher. Yet, Gold’s value is roughly six times higher!

While some of the newly created money and debt will find its way into Gold, the biggest inflows into Gold will come from other markets and particularly bonds. The bond market, which dwarfs the equity and commodities markets, is by far the biggest market in the world. In recent years and in response to the global economic malaise the average investor and average institution has shifted funds out of equities and into bonds. Inflows into bond funds have been gargantuan while inflows into equity funds have been negative. Thus, in an intermarket sense, the trigger for the coming bubble in Gold will be the shift of funds out of bonds and into Gold and the like.

One way to monitor this is to graph Gold against bonds. Below we show Gold against bonds (bottom) and Silver against bonds (top). Both charts are at an interesting juncture. The next breakout in both charts would surpass the 1980 peak and result in all time highs. Gold and Silver have outperformed bonds for a number of years but the outperformance would accelerate upon breakout in these charts.


n the meantime, Gold and Silver and the shares have begun to correct and digest the strong gains from the recent rebound. October is the only bearish part of the seasonally bullish period. Interim bottoms typically occur in the middle of or near the end of October. Thus, the coming days and weeks could be an opportunity to shed some bonds in favor of bullion and to pickup some stocks, which you may have missed at the last bottom. If you’d be interested in professional guidance in uncovering the producers and explorers poised to outperform then we invite you to learn more about our service.

Good Luck!

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT

About Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT (Trendsman). Jordan is a Chartered Market Technician, a member of the Market Technicians Association and from 2010-2011 an official contributor to the CME Group, the largest futures exchange in the world. He is the publisher and editor of TheDailyGold Premiuma publication which emphaszies market timing and stock selection for the sophisiticated investor.

Since January 2010, The Daily Gold Premium Model Portfolio is up 82% compared to GDX (-6%) and GDXJ (-14%).  Jordan’s work has been featured in CNBC, Barrons, Financial Times Alphaville, BusinessInsider, 321gold, Gold-Eagle, FinancialSense, GoldSeek, Kitco and Yahoo Finance. He is quoted regularly in Barrons. Jordan was a speaker at PDAC 2012, the largest mining conference in the world. Jordan earned a degree in General Studies with a concentration in International Economic Development. Jordan also lived and worked in Southeast Asia for 3 years in order to study economic development from an emerging market perspective. In his spare time he enjoys spending time with Mrs. Trendsman.

Contact: Jordan @ TheDailyGold.com




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