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Gold & Precious Metals

Credibility of the U.S. Bullion Depositary & the Possible Price of Gold

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Posted by Prezemyslaw Radomski via The Daily Gold

on Wednesday, 02 January 2013 10:41

In the classic 1964 movie Goldfinger, James Bond tries to prevent the main villain, Auric Goldfinger, from detonating a dirty nuclear bomb inside Fort Knox. While in Fort Knox, Bond says:

Well, if you explode it [the bomb] in Fort Knox, the... the entire gold supply of the United States would be radioactive for... fifty-seven years.

Goldfinger is only a work of fiction. Fort Knox wasn’t under the threat of a nuclear explosion (then again, who knows?). Nonetheless, it has been argued that it wouldn’t really make difference if the gold in the fort were radioactive – nobody has seen much of it since the 1950s. On December 4 and December 12, 2012 in our two-part story on gold and the U.S. dollar, we highlighted two possibilities: the dollar collapses, gold goes up like crazy or the dollar doesn’t collapse, gold still appreciates. In those commentaries, we analyzed the possibilities of gold appreciating and tied possible price levels with a number of factors, for instance with U.S. gold reserves as presented on the chart below.

radomski january22013 1

On December 4, 2012, we wrote the following:

This chart presents the (…) relation of U.S. debt to Treasury gold reserves – the amount of debt per one ounce of gold – up to 2012. The red line represents U.S. Treasury gold reserves in metric tonnes, while the yellow line denotes the amount of U.S. debt in dollars per ounce of gold. The debt per ounce has visibly increased since 1971, accelerating around 2000 and even more around 2008. In 2012, there were $61,796.11 of debt per one ounce of gold owned by the U.S. government.

Now, if a new gold standard is introduced and the agreement works like the Bretton Woods system, the dollar (or whatever other currency) would be tied to gold. As noted earlier in this essay, at the introduction of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 the debt coverage for the U.S. stood at 10.9% (or $319.90 of debt per one troy ounce of gold). If the new system were based on similar assumptions with debt coverage at 10%, this would imply a fixed price of $6,179.61 per ounce of gold ($6,179.61 per ounce of gold divided by $61,796.11 of debt per one ounce of gold gives us coverage of 10%).

Since the publication of this essay, we have received a particularly interesting question about the assumptions we used:

Dear Mr. Radomski

Your December 4, 2012 article (…) is exceeding well-written and researched, and I gained a lot of knowledge from reading it.  However  there is one potential problem I see in all the logic you are applying  to the current situation.  It seems to me you are assuming the USA  actually has  gold at Fort Knox and West Point.  But there is mounting,  but unproven evidence, both places have no gold in them at all, and are rather storage places for nerve gas. (…)  An audit of the US gold holdings has  been demanded by some for years, but the government will not allow it.   The gold belongs to the American people, so why won't they let us see  it?  Many think it is because it is no longer there.  If that is indeed  the case, do we not face a "financial Armageddon?" Thanks for reading this and any response you might have. (I am not a  conspiracy freak!) (…)

We always appreciate our readers’ feedback and would like to thank for it here. We also appreciate spot-on questions and see this particular one as intriguing, to say the least. Which brings us back to Fort Knox.

At first it may sound shocking, but the last audit of gold stored in Fort Knox took place in 1953. No typo here, 1953, just after U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower took office. Even though it is the last audit up to date, it can’t be described as satisfying. No outside experts were allowed and the audit team tested only about 5% of gold hoarded in the fort. So, there hasn’t been a comprehensive audit of Fort Knox in at least 60 (!!!) years.  This is at least surprising, given the fact that large entities listed on stock exchanges are usually required to undergo an outside audit at least once a year. Of course, the U.S. Bullion Depository is no conventional company. Nonetheless, not auditing it independently for more than half of the century raises questions such as the one posted above.

This is no new topic. One of the first written accounts questioning the amount of gold really stored in Fort Knox appeared in 1974 in a tabloid, the National Tattler. An unnamed informant claimed that there was no gold left in Fort Knox. The sensational nature of the story, and of the newspaper, wouldn’t perhaps contribute to the credibility of the account but it was later revealed that the informant, Louise Auchincloss Boyer, secretary to Nelson Rockefeller, had fallen out of the window of her New York apartment and died three days after the publication in the Tattler. The tragic incident resulted in controversies over the possibility that the U.S. Bullion Depositary may have misstated the actual amount of gold held in Fort Knox. Congressman John R. Rarick demanded a Congressional investigation and, on September 23, 1974 six Congressmen, one Senator and the press were allowed to enter Fort Knox to see for themselves if the gold was there or not.

The tour showed that there was gold in Fort Knox but, all the same, it sparked even more controversies. Only a fraction of the gold reserves were available to see. A photo of one Congressman published by Associated Press suggested that gold bars held in the fort may have been less heavy than would be usually expected.

Quite obviously, this has resulted in even more doubt about the fineness of gold in Fort Knox. None of these doubts have been put aside by any of the audits carried out since 1974. When the reserves were audited, the amount of the gold examined was fractional and there has been no comprehensive bar count and weighting. The same goes for assaying – if a fraction of gold bars were examined at all, then a fraction of this fraction were assayed. The methods used in the assaying process were not conventional. Usually, during an assay, gold bars are examined by means of drilling, which is called the core boring method. But the bars in Fort Knox were examined merely by cutting of small chips of the metal from their surface. This method only proved that the outer layer of the bars examined was made of gold.

This difference in assaying methods is important if you consider that counterfeit “gold bars” have been showing up in New York recently and that fake gold bars turned up in LBMA Approved Vaults in Hong Kong. All these bars had one common characteristic: they were made of tungsten, which has similar density as gold, and covered with a gold veneer. The problem here is that such bars can go undetected if they are examined with X-ray fluorescence scans or by means of simply scraping of a bit of the metal from the surface. So, to properly assess the fineness of gold bars in Fort Knox, a full core boring method should be employed.

In 2012, the German federal court ordered that the German central bank, Bundesbank, conduct anaudit of German gold reserves stored abroad, particularly in the U.S., U.K. and in France. The German authorities have never before conducted a comprehensive audit of their foreign gold reserves and the last time they were able to see their gold stored in the New York Federal Reserve vaults was supposedly in 1979/80. The Bundesbank has expressed that it doesn’t doubt the trustworthiness of the U.S. authorities but demands stricter control over its gold reserves. Because of that 150 tons of gold will be shipped from the U.S. to Germany to assess the fineness of the bars.

All of this shows that the measures applied by the U.S. government to gold storage in Fort Knox and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s vaults are questionable and that this fact may have been recognized by German authorities. It’s hardly conceivable that there is no gold left in Fort Knox or the New York vaults. On the other hand, the lack of a comprehensive audit of either facility is unnerving. So are other irregularities associated with Fort Knox: missing shipments, audits acknowledging the existence of gold based on seals that were not broken, not on the actual count and examination of bars and so on.

Of course, a full audit of Fort Knox wouldn’t be an easy task because of the sheer amount of gold to be examined. But it’s feasible. The U.S. Mint estimated the cost of such an audit to stand at $60 million. The Treasury came up with a lower estimate – $15 million. Even if we take the higher value, and compare it to the value of gold stored in Fort Knox (as of December 31, 2012, $240.8 billion) it adds up to about 0.02% of these reserves. In this light the Treasury cannot really claim that this is too expensive.

So, what does all of this mean for the analysis we presented in our essay on gold and the dollar collapse? In short words, not much. Our price target for gold is to be treated as a general indication of where gold might go if the dollar collapses. If the value of the greenback is reduced to paper, we would expect gold to appreciate, but not exactly to $6,179.61. It could appreciate to $5,000 or to $10,000 (in today’s dollars). Nobody really knows that. The point is that if doubts about the amount of gold stored in Fort Knox are just that – unproven doubts – gold could be a lot more expensive (in dollar terms) than it is today. If, however, there’s any substance in these doubts and gold reserves in Fort Knox are lower than officially reported, gold could go even higher, and the price of $6,000 per ounce of gold could be viewed as the lower bound of where it might go.

The bottom line is that if the dollar collapses and the gold reported to be in Fort Knox is really there, gold could appreciate very strongly. If the dollar crashes and Fort Knox is (partially) empty, gold could go sky-high (in dollar terms).

For more information on how to structure your gold and silver portfolio to deal with both the possibility of the dollar collapsing and the possibility that it will endure in spite of the current U.S. debt levels, please consult our essay on gold and silver portfolio. For information on why we use past gold tops as reference points, check our essay on the 1980 top in gold.

Use the following link to sign up for a free, no-obligation trial of our Premium Service and read the complete version of this study that is over 10 times bigger. You’ll also receive Market Alerts on a daily basis and when the trial expires, you’ll start receiving our free newsletter. Additionally, you will also receive 12 best gold investment practice emails.

Thank you for reading.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

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Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Long-Term Chart Outlook: "Gold Looks Fantastic"

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Posted by Warren Bevan via GoldSeek

on Monday, 31 December 2012 09:59

Long story short, gold looks fantastic.

I say often that people who moan over gold not rising daily are nuts!

You can clearly see in the first two bases how the consolidation led to a large build up of power and strength which in turn led to huge moves.

This is how stocks and markets work.  They need time to digest gains and shed as many traders from their positions as possible before embarking on the next move.

$1,800 is the next breakout level that will see a hefty rise in gold so don’t sweat the small stuff.  Accumulating gold on weakness has worked for a decade and will for a couple more years at least.

image004

......7 more charts & read more HERE



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Gold & Precious Metals

Pick Up Junior Gold Mining Bargains Now

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Posted by The Gold Report

on Friday, 28 December 2012 13:17

The past year was a very tough one for the junior gold mining sector. In this interview with The Gold Report, Brien Lundin, CEO of Jefferson Financial, says that the past year has, in fact, put many gold mining companies on the bargain basement shelf. He shares some advice on end-of-year portfolio repositions and talks about some of his favorite stocks that he believes are poised for a rebound in 2013.

COMPANIES MENTIONED : ALMADEN MINERALS LTD. : BRIGUS GOLD CORP. : CAYDEN RESOURCES INC. : COMSTOCK METALS LTD. : GOLD STANDARD VENTURES CORP. : GOLDCORP INC. : GOLDQUEST MINING CORP. : INTERNATIONAL TOWER HILL MINES LTD. : KEEGAN RESOURCES INC. : LION ONE METALS LTD. : PMI GOLD CORP. : PRECIPITATE GOLD CORP.

The Gold Report: Brien, in late October you and your company Jefferson Financial hosted the New Orleans Investment Conference. What were some of the commodity-related themes consistently making the rounds there?

Brien Lundin: The buzz was that the underlying fundamentals for precious metals would remain bullish regardless of who won the election. But if President Obama were re-elected, then all of the factors favoring gold and silver would become dramatically more bullish.

TGR: You wrote about that in the November edition of Gold Newsletter. Here's a quote from that edition of your newsletter: "The bottom line is that President Obama's re-election means that you need to buy gold and silver, and things that will retain their value as the dollar loses its value." Why were things different on Nov. 7 than they were the day before?

BL: Even before the election, the economic and fiscal situation for the United States was pretty dire. In my view the only hope of recovery and reform, without a major ongoing crisis and very significant inflation, would be if the Paul Ryan plan were to be put into effect immediately. 

Instead, we now have the same administration that took the emergency one-year spending levels enacted to keep the economy from crashing during the 2008 credit crisis, and has now made those massive spending levels the new baseline going forward. The difference is that the Obama administration is now unrestrained by the prospect of another election, so the trajectory of government spending is actually being steepened.

TGR: In another passage of the same edition of Gold Newsletter you wrote: "The coming inflation will be similar to what we've experienced in recent years. Huge pools of loose money will continue to flow into commodities and financial assets." What makes you certain that we won't see another round of risk-off sentiment if things go as badly as you suggest they will?

BL: The risk-off episodes that seized the investment markets over the past few years are in reaction to potential fiscal crises in the U.S. and Europe. This headline risk sent investors running to the safety of cash, specifically to the U.S. dollar. This seems counterintuitive, but investors are looking for short-term safety.

When the perceived risk is one of long-term currency debasement, then gold is the preferred safe haven. My whole bull market thesis for gold is based on a developing consensus that neither Europe nor the U.S. is going to face collapse anytime soon. Rather each will be kept afloat on a sea of new money printing by both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. In such an environment, gold and silver are going to absolutely take off.

TGR: Do you think that lack of practicality of gold hampers its status as a safe haven?

BL: Not today. Gold is very liquid. A lot of speculators use the exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which I recommend for trading the metals. But I don't recommend ETFs for core holdings.

In fact, one of the things that is keeping the market buoyed currently is the tremendous retail investor demand for the metals. That comes in the form of skyrocketing physical sales of coins and bullion, and in the ETFs. Metals holdings of the ETFs are at record levels. Coin demand is at near record levels. Yet we see the price moribund due to the whims of speculative demand.

TGR: It's interesting that you're pro ETFs, because most gold bulls aren't. Is this a new tack for you?

BL: Not really. You know a lot of the hard-core goldbugs are somewhat doubtful of whether the EFT gold is actually there. I recognize those concerns, so I don't recommend ETFs for core physical metals holdings, just for trading.

TGR: When should equities enter the mix for a retail investor?

BL: Simply put, right now. The junior resource stocks have been absolutely decimated over the past year. There are bargains galore right now if you have cash to buy them.

TGR: Are these bargains mostly market related or is this part of tax-loss selling season?

BL: I don't really distinguish between the two. We've had a lousy year for the equities. When we have had risk-on environments, they have not lasted long enough to where it filtered down to the highly speculative junior resource equities.

We also have an unusual situation this year where we have not only tax-loss selling but also tax-gain selling as investors take profits to avoid higher capital gains taxes next year. When you combine that with the junior stock market that has been depressed all year, some incredible bargains emerge. I'm pinpointing a number of them in Gold Newsletter right now.

TGR: Let's talk about some of the equities that you follow. You said in a recent edition of your newsletter that Almaden Minerals Ltd. (AMM:TSX; AAU:NYSE) has "opted to forego" the prospect-generator model in an effort to develop the promising Ixtaca gold-silver deposit in Mexico that's part of the Tuligtic project. Is that your opinion?

BL: Yes. I have never been a big believer in the prospect-generator business model as an absolute. It should be a business model, not a religion. So when a junior explorer comes across a prospect that is particularly exciting and can provide rapid value advancement with relatively little risk, then I think the company should explore that project fully.

Almaden was the poster child for the prospector-generator model for years. But Morgan and Dwayne Poliquin had the vision and the foresight to see that Ixtaca could be different. Their decision has paid off in spades. Almaden right now is one of my top recommendations and I think that deposit is going to get much bigger than the company's current market cap is indicating.

TGR: Almaden has about $36 million (M) to continue to develop Ixtaca. Do you think that it will sell that project, dividend the money out to shareholders, and then continue on its way? Or do you think it will sell the whole company? Or would it do something similar to what Virginia Mines Inc. (VGQ:TSX) did when it took all the other projects out of that company, put them in a new company, and sold that company to Goldcorp Inc. (G:TSX; GG:NYSE)?

BL: Typically in a case where a company has a number of earlier-stage projects, and it has one major project for which it is primarily being valued, then management will sell the company. Usually you'll see a spin off of those other projects into a new vehicle so that shareholders can keep the benefit of that other property portfolio that really isn't adding value to the transaction. That's a process to fund that new company as well.

TGR: You’ve also written that Brigus Gold Corp. (BRD:NYSE.MKT; BRD:TSX) looked "undervalued" in early November after Brigus bought back much of its gold royalty stream from Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SSL:TSX.V). Tell us about that deal and the market's reaction to it.

BL: There are a few keys to Brigus Gold and the opportunity it presents. First, the company ran into operational problems when it was trying to ramp up production at its Black Fox Mine, prompting a decline in the share price.

"The junior resource stocks have been absolutely decimated over the past year. There are bargains galore right now if you have cash to buy them."

Those production hiccups have been solved and production is now growing. Yet the company's shares are on sale. In addition, there is the exploration drilling the company is doing on its Grey Fox property near the Black Fox Mine. In particular it is getting tremendous results from a high-grade zone called the 147 Zone. Those results are normally enough to absolutely catapult the value of a junior explorer. But the results are getting lost in the shuffle because Brigus is a production story. In fact, this Grey Fox property will become the company's next mine.

TGR: Another company you follow is Comstock Metals Ltd. (CSL:TSX.V). You see more promise in the recent drill results from the company's QV project in the Yukon than the market does. Give us your thoughts on that.

BL: Comstock is a case where expectations were really high before the first drill results came in. The results were actually quite good, but not quite up to the elevated expectations. So the share price sold off, which was unwarranted.

The first results showed the potential for a nice sized deposit at the VG Zone. Importantly, the company also outlined a number of other drill targets from soil sampling and trenching. The real key for Comstock will come with next year's exploration program. The company's geologists plan to mount a comprehensive attack on all those highly prospective targets. "I think Comstock is a longer-term story. It's not going to be built on a few drill holes or even a couple of rounds of drilling. It's a project that has a number of very exciting targets. It's a cross between the Underworld Resources story, which had the Golden Saddle deposit just about 10 or 11 kilometers to the south, and the Kaminak Gold Corp. (KAM:TSX.V) story not far away. Kaminak had a number of anomalies that it had to drill off and is only now starting to connect those anomalies with mineralization.

There's a lot of potential in Comstock. I see some very exciting analogs in the area and the mineralization that it has seen so far is very, very similar to that at the Golden Saddle discovery by Underworld. That discovery was a big winner for Gold Newsletterreaders, when Kinross Gold Corp. (K:TSX; KGC:NYSE) took over Underworld at a big premium.

TGR: One hole cut 89.9 meters of 2.34 grams per tonne gold. Could this be a bulk tonnage starter?

BL: That wasn't a very deep intersection, so it could be bulk tonnage. People tend to feel that the grades in the Yukon have to be very high even for a bulk-tonnage or an open-pit deposit for the economics to work. But this whole area is becoming ripe with new discoveries and infrastructure will follow, and, at some point, it's also going to be ripe for consolidation. So I think that the current grades are very close to what a company would need to make a deposit work in the Yukon.

TGR: What did you make of the recent friendly merger between Keegan Resources Inc. (KGN:TSX; KGN:NYSE.MKT) and PMI Gold Corp. (PMV:TSX.V; PVM:ASX; PN3N:FSE)?

BL: It was a great deal for both companies. Everyone's been waiting for one of the majors to come in and scoop up one or both of these juniors and consolidate the projects in this area of Ghana. But those takeovers never happened. So these two management teams essentially decided to do it on their own.

In the near term, this isn't a big share-price catalyst. But considering that the combined companies can now fully find the development of the more advanced Obotan project of PMI and get into production, the financing risk is removed essentially for both projects.

Obotan should get into full production by 2015 at around 200,000 ounces (oz)/year. By 2017, Keegan's Esaase project will get added to the mix and bring production up to around 385,000 ounces annually. The bottom line is that we now have either a must-have acquisition by a major or the emergence of a new midlevel producer with the potential to continue consolidating the region.

TGR: Do you see this as an investible theme? Companies with nearby development-stage projects that are suffering from markets that aren't all that flush with cash getting together?

BL: In this case, both of these companies are fairly well funded. I see them as being potential aggressors in a new round of merger and acquisition activity. These companies also have additional exploration potential. Keegan just made a new, very important property acquisition. It was a property swap with the Ghana government that it's been working on for years and where the company sees the potential for some sizable extensions to the Esaase mineralization. So the story could get bigger on every front.

TGR: You recently added some companies to the rather lengthy list of ones that you cover. One of them is Precipitate Gold Corp. (PRG:TSX.V), which is seeking gold in the Dominican Republic. Does it concern you that it has only $1.8M in exploration capital?

BL: Not really. That amount is actually a decent treasury compared to the peer group. There are hundreds of companies in the junior resource sector now that only have a few $100,000 in the treasury. The company, though, will have to raise more money to advance its projects in the Dominican Republic.

There is potential for further dilution, but the share structure is fairly tight. There's only about 24–25M shares outstanding, no warrants overhanging the stock, and the company is well-held by a strong group of financiers. Bottom line is I don't think they'll have any problems raising additional funds if needed.

TGR: Another company that's exploring the Dominican Republic is GoldQuest Mining Corp. (GQC:TSX.V). It recently had some less than ideal drill results and the market reacted negatively to those. Was Precipitate affected adversely by association?

BL: Absolutely. GoldQuest was another case where the expectations were raised really high. The first few drill holes from GoldQuest were just phenomenal and it would have been very difficult to continue that. GoldQuest really hit the honey holes right at the beginning.

But now the hype has definitely died down from the whole Dominican Republic play and Precipitate did suffer from that. The hype over the Dominican Republic helped obscure Precipitate's outstanding property portfolio in the Yukon and British Columbia, where it has about 19 highly prospective properties that were acquired for really valid geological reasons. That's the side of the company where I expect the next really important exploration news will come from.

TGR: What are some other companies that you follow that could see a rebound in 2013?

BL: The list is starting to grow a bit long. But there are really some remarkable bargains right now as the year draws to a close. Investors should concentrate on companies with either proven resources and/or the likelihood of big news on the near-term horizon.

Some of the prime examples that I would throw into this category are Cayden Resources Inc. (CYD:TSX.V)International Tower Hill Mines Ltd. (ITH:TSX; THM:NYSE.MKT)Gold Standard Ventures Corp. (GSV:TSX.V; GDVXF:OTCQX), Kaminak Gold, and Lion One Metals Ltd. (LIO:TSX.V; LOMLF:OTCQX; LY1:FSE).

TGR: Let's start with Cayden. That's a story that's largely unfamiliar to our readers, with the La Magnetita target in Mexico.

BL: What's important about Cayden is that there are a few aspects to the story. There's the property position that it has at the Morelos Sur gold project. It actually partially surrounds and transects the largest producing gold mine in Mexico, Los Filos, which is owned by Goldcorp.

That mine has to expand, and in fact, it's already encroaching on the surface onto Cayden's property position. That means there's going to have to be some kind of a financial accommodation done there and it could be significant for the company.

In addition, Cayden has the land between the two producing pits on Goldcorp's mine and Cayden has drilled that. It has shown that there is mineralization trending from between those two pits at depth on its property. So Cayden has proven mineralization and an obvious natural buyer for whatever it can prove up.

Then you have the La Magnetita target. The key to that is that every mine and discovery in the Guerrero Gold Belt has been identified through geophysical means. Importantly, La Magnetita is the largest geophysical anomaly in the belt. To date Cayden has gotten some outstanding sampling and trenching results, and is now drilling, so I'm very excited about that potential.

TGR: International Tower Hill is a story that took off a few years ago and seems to have stumbled more recently. What's happening with the company now?

BL: Its Livengood gold project is a case of a really large project with lower grades. The project is still economical, but you have to get the majors out there ready to buy up such a project. That will likely happen, but only when we have a sense of normalcy in the market that we haven't had in the last 18 to 24 months.

TGR: How about Kaminak? We talked a little bit about the Yukon with Comstock and Kaminak's right there too in the White Gold District.

BL: Yes, it is connecting all of these various anomalies on its property and building up a resource that, in its recently released maiden resource estimate, is already totaling over 3.2 million ounces of inferred resource.

Kaminak has come off a good bit and could be a prime takeover candidate. It's being derisked with every drill hole. The company has had incredible success so far and it has just completed one of the most aggressive drill programs to be seen in the junior resource world in many years.

At the current price levels, it's hard to get hurt in Kaminak.

TGR: Gold Standard Ventures, which owns the Railroad gold project in north central Nevada, is a made-in-America story. What's the next catalyst for Gold Standard?

BL: This was a slow motion discovery. When the company first came public, I didn't recommend it in my newsletter because I thought it was too expensive.

The company's first results weren't spectacular by any means, but they were technical successes—not market successes. However, once you understood the story and talked to the geologists, you understood that the company was vectoring in on something that could be big. We were able to get our readers in on the stock before the big run up, which was just wonderful timing, after it had declined a bit after it first came public.

The geologists kept vectoring in on the mineralization while proving up the geological concept, until they eventually found the higher-grade mineralization. At this point, it is still trying to fully understand the mineralization and get a much better handle on it. I think what you'll see is that Gold Standard will be able to advance the resource to a much greater degree over the coming months. This is another example of those very hot stories that have come back a good bit, yet have a proven discovery, and the company will just keep drilling to prove up a resource.

TGR: What's happening with Lion One?

BL: Lion One is progressing with permitting and development of its Tuvatu gold project in Fiji, a project with upside potential that I don't believe is being valued by the market at all. Over $30M was spent on this project by Emperor Mines Ltd. in the late 1990s, including over 85,000m of drilling and 1,600m of underground infrastructure.

All Lion One has to do is dust off and update an existing feasibility study, and get the necessary permits to get into production. It is doing that right now, and will use proceeds from Tuvatu to fund exploration of the multimillion-ounce potential of the project.

Management, including legendary financier Walter Berukoff, owns about 40% of the company, so it has solid support going forward. It's a great buy at these levels.

TGR: It's the end of the year and some retail investors are wondering what to do with their portfolios and if they should make some changes. Is there a process that you go through at the end of the year?

BL: The end of the calendar year is a natural time to clean up a portfolio and rationalize things. But it is also the time of the year that you typically have tax-loss selling that creates a dampening effect on the markets and sometimes creates some pretty attractive bargains. This year, as I said, we've had some screaming bargains created.

I think what investors need to do, and we're doing it with our Gold Newsletter portfolio as well, is to look at the number of companies that you can adequately follow. If you're able to find some really attractive opportunities in this kind of an environment, you need to start switching into these faster horses in exchange for some of the slower horses in your stable. Just turn over the portfolio a bit, rearrange it and get prepared for the future.

It's especially important if you can find companies that are better positioned going forward than the ones you have in your portfolio and you can realize some tax losses going forward. There's no reason to play the psychological games of holding on to a loser just so you can get back what you paid for the stock. Be ready to break emotional ties, sell a company and put the money on a better bet going forward.

TGR: We'd be remiss if we didn't ask a gold bull like yourself to tell us what you think the coming year has in store for gold. Please give us your thoughts on that.

BL: It's going to be a very good year for precious metals and mining stock investors. Once we get through these end of year trading games and that fiscal cliff fiasco, the markets should settle down into an environment where everyone recognizes that massive money printing will continue for years to come. This is the fundamental story that's going to drive metals prices higher and in this environment the equities will begin to benefit once again.

There's also a very powerful technical picture developing. Both gold and silver are tracing out a cup-and-handle formation similar to the ones they formed during the 2008 credit crisis and the subsequent recovery from that crisis. After that, the metals rocketed higher out of those cup-and-handle bottoming formations. I fully expect a similar performance this time around, which would be a pretty exceptionally profitable situation for gold bulls.

TGR: Thanks, Brien, for your insights.

With a career spanning three decades, Brien Lundin serves as president and CEO of Jefferson Financial, a highly regarded publisher of market analyses and producer of investment-oriented events. Under the Jefferson Financial umbrella, Lundin edits and publishes Gold Newsletter, a cornerstone of precious metals advisories since 1971. He also hosts the New Orleans Investment Conference, the oldest and most respected investment event of its kind.

Want to read more Gold Report interviews like this? Sign up for our free e-newsletter, and you'll learn when new articles have been published. To see a list of recent interviews with industry analysts and commentators, visit our Interviews page.

DISCLOSURE:
1) Brian Sylvester of The Gold Report conducted this interview. He personally and/or his family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. 
2) The following companies mentioned in the interview are sponsors of The Gold Report: Almaden Minerals Ltd., Goldcorp Inc., Brigus Gold Corp., Precipitate Gold Corp., International Tower Hill Mines Ltd., Gold Standard Ventures Corp. and Lion One Metals Ltd. Streetwise Reports does not accept stock in exchange for services. Interviews are edited for clarity.
3) Brien Lundin: I personally and/or my family own shares of the following companies mentioned in this interview: Comstock Metals Ltd., Keegan Resources Inc., Precipitate Gold Corp., Cayden Resources Inc., Kaminak Gold Corp. and Lion One Metals Ltd. I personally and/or my family am paid by the following companies mentioned in this interview: None. I was not paid by Streetwise Reports for participating in this interview.

 



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Gold & Precious Metals

Curiosity as Correlations Turned Upside Down

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski

on Friday, 28 December 2012 01:38

Rising Euro, Falling Dollar and… Correlations Turned Upside Down

This week has brought in some calm after recent declines in the precious metals sector. Everybody seems to be waiting for some more decisive moves (both in the markets and on the part of the government, as the “fiscal cliff” issue has not been resolved yet), but these are not very likely before the beginning of the New Year. 

Meanwhile, currency markets have been moving in the direction that makes precious metals investors happy – or should make them happy, were the situation “normal” – i.e. were the correlations between precious metals and the U.S. dollar strong and negative. Quite unfortunately, the situation is far from normal, but this is likely due to the abovementioned “fiscal cliff” problem and the uncertainty caused by the lack of final solution. Let us then move on to the technical part of today’s essay and see what we can figure out from the "gold silver charts" charts and correlations – we’ll start with the euro’s long-term chart (charts courtesy of http://stockcharts.com.)

radomski december282012 1

Recall that  "Free Gold, Silver, Precious Metals Articles" two weeks ago, we had discussed that if the index closed above 132, the breakout would be confirmed and higher values likely. A small decline was seen last Friday, but the Euro Index is once again above the 132 level. If it closes the week in this trading range, the breakout above the September high will be confirmed and a further move to the upside likely. The 138 level appears to be within reach if this holds true. All-in-all, the Euro Index picture this week has bearish implications for the dollar.

Now, let’s move on to the U.S. currency – we’ll start with the medium-term chart.

radomski december282012 2

A consolidation has been ongoing for over a month, and the index now appears ready to move lower. The decline and consolidation here are a reflection of the upswing and consolidation seen recently in the Euro Index.

Let’s have a look at the short-term USD Index chart now.

radomski december282012 3

In the chart, there is an interesting development. A small rally lasting a few days has been seen and this makes the current situation quite confusing. The cyclical turning point is upon us and if it wasn’t preceded by a pullback, higher values would be likely to follow. The very short-term trend however has already been to the upside, so we could see a reversal and lower index values. (The Euro Index could continue to rally without a pause as well, or more precisely, after a small pause that is not visible on the above chart that is created based on weekly candlesticks.) In short, it seems that lower values are more than likely to be seen in the USD Index. If the precious metals begin to respond positively to this weakness in the dollar, the short-term picture could quickly become bullish for gold, silver and mining stocks.

To put the above analysis into proper perspective, let’s check the current correlation values.

radomski december282012 4

 

The "Correlation Matrix " is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector.

The Correlation Matrix is quite confusing this week as it shows that the coefficients have truly turned upside down. They are pretty much neutral for silver when it comes to the 30-day period, but clearly upside down for the 10-day one, as well as for gold and the precious metals mining stocks.

The strangest picture here is between gold and the USD. Gold generally moves opposite of the USD Index but has been pretty much in tune with it for the last 30 days and has moved in the opposite direction of stocks. In short, the situation is far from normal. However, it seems that this situation will turn back to normal quite soon and the chart below explains why.

radomski december282012 5

The decline in the above chart does quite a good job in representing the simultaneous slide in the dollar and the price of gold (the thing that made the correlations turn upside down in the past 30 trading days). On the above chart we see that the decline is excessive and likely to end or at least pause very soon, so the correlation might return to its normal state in a week or two.

The RSI levels are not much above 30, so further short-term strength is suggested here. If the breakdown is invalidated, the picture then would become clearly bullish.

Summing up, the situation in the Euro Index improved this week while it deteriorated in the USD Index. Since the cyclical turning point in the latter is quite close and a small rally was seen this week, the implications are bearish. If the precious metals sector begins to respond, then much more strength will likely be seen in gold, silver and mining stock prices. 

We expect to see a return of the negative correlation between the USD Index and the precious metals very soon.

Use the following link to sign up for a free, no-obligation trial of our Premium Service and read the complete version of this study that is over 10 times bigger. You’ll also receive Market Alerts on a daily basis and when the trial expires, you’ll start receiving our free newsletter. Additionally, you will also receive 12  "best gold practices" gold best practice emails.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief Sunshine Profits

"trade and invest in gold and silver" Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

 

 

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Disclaimer

 

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Price Forecast 2013

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Posted by The Market Oracle

on Thursday, 27 December 2012 03:09

Buying Opportunity?, is Silver Cheaper? - 8 Key Charts  Below

Gold and Silver bugs have had an abysmally poor 2012 against expectations for new all time highs, where a 1 year bear market from the August 2011 high into the May 2012 low failed to spark a sustained run to new all time highs. The rally from which petered out by early October at $1800, followed by another trend back to leave Gold at $1657 as per the last close, this despite reams and reams of material plastered all over the internet that hoped for an eventual return to a gold standard or "Sound Money" as being the ultimate outcome of our ongoing global debt and money printing crisis.

However, it is never going to happen, or rather not under any western style democracy, for this I don't need to indulge myself in in-depth analysis but direct readers attention to what continues to take place in the Euro-zone where the PIIGS countries having adopted pseudo sound money of the Euro have found themselves in the precise predicament of where they would be had they had a Gold standard, namely that they are unable to just print debt and money to buy votes with the stealth default consequences of inflation, whilst on the other hand we have the examples of the United States and UK that can and do print debt and money in ever expanding volume as they seek to buy up their own bonds (via central banks buying from bankrupt banks who borrow form the central banks to do so) and thus subvert the official debt to GDP ratios as I recently discussed in length (03 Dec 2012 - Bank of England Cancels Britai n's Debt) with the below graph illustrating the money and debt printing / cancellation highly inflationary game that Britain is playing.

britains-inflationary-debt-spiral-2012

So, if you have read any of my articles over the past few years you will know that the only answer that the governments of the world have is to print money and debt to inflate the debt and liabilities away, Sound money or even pseudo sound money prevents them from doing so and therefore ensures a deflationary depression, instead we are emerged in an inflationary depression which given the real world comparisons appears to be infinitely far more palatable to the masses and therefore explains why it is every government and central banks default setting.

So Gold bugs looking for sound money to turn Gold into Currency will probably find that their descendants will still be waiting a for such an outcome. Ironically, if Gold never becomes money (in our life-times anyway) it is still good news for if it were then it would probably mean that Gold's future prospects would not be as good as they are under our fiat currency money / debt printing exponential inflation inducing monetary system as governments would seek to dictate what the price of gold should be rather than the current system of manipulation of all markets to varying degrees.

Now, whilst it has been been a long time since I last analysed or traded Gold and Silver. However, if you have been reading my articles you will be aware of the prevailing exponential inflation mega-trend as a consequence of government debt and money printing that continues to exert upwards pressure on asset prices and even more so when leverage is taken into account, therefore following the recent sell off in gold to $1660, a good 14% below its 2011 peak, which is perking my interest in the safe haven precious metals that this analysis seeks to resolve the probable trend for 2013.

Gold Forecast 2010-2012

My last in depth analysis of Gold and Silver was several years ago at the start of November 2009 (01 Nov 2009 - Gold Bull Market Forecast 2009, 2010 Update)that was updated for the January 2010 Inflation Mega-trend ebook (Free Download).

At the time Gold was trading at $1035, and the forecast for Gold was for a rally to a minimum of $1333 by late 2010 and a longer-term target of $2,000 for 2011, which is pretty much what came to pass during the next few years.

Gold can expect to gyrate towards its target of $1333 by late 2010, and continue further on into 2011 as the Gold price continues to look set to trend towards $2,000 which should be easily achievable within the next 3 years.

gold-weekly

Gold Secular Bull Market

From 1980 to 1999 Gold fell for 20 years, eventually it would bottom and embark on a bull market, eventually, the signs for this would be not in fundamental data, but contained within the price chart as Gold breaks the pattern of corrective rallies followed by the downtrend resuming to new bear market lows. Some 10 years later (into mid 2011) Gold corrected the preceding secular bear market by 50% in time and well over 100% in price. The subsequent trend has seen what resembles a multi-year consolidation of that preceding bull run.

Central Banks Buying Gold - For many years central banks were net sellers of gold but over the past year have been buying at the rate of about 10% of annual new supply. Though don't expect central bank buying to create a price spike as they would seek to avoid such an outcome by instead buying the dips.

Global Quantitative Easing aka Money Printing Hedging

We are in a new world (for the west anyway) and that is a world of Quantitative Easing, the more the governments of the world print money and monetize debt the easier it is for governments to keep printing and monetizing ever escalating amounts of government debt to cover the government budget deficit gaps. Upon which the accelerant of the Quantum of Quantitative Easing has been poured i.e. Governments paying themselves interest on monetized debt (20 Jul 2012 - The Quantum of Quantitative Easing Inflation is Coming! )

The US Fed recently revealed that its priority now is to target 6.5% Unemployment (7.7%) rather than inflation, in which respect it is engaged in a policy of QE4Ever -(01 Oct 2012 - Socialist Global Central Bank Crime Syndicate QE-4-Ever Inflation Theft)

What this means is collective currency devaluation where relatively there appears to be little change in currency rates but in real terms the flood of money consequences is for upward pressure on commodity prices and other scarce resources, after all the supply of resources is mostly known and the population of the world is not decreasing so the demand is known to be on an upward curve. Therefore as long as the central bankers are embarked on escalating quantitative easing that continues to put upwards pressure under the gold price and other commodities as it increases inflation expectations and therefore inflation hedging using gold and more liquid commodities such as crude oil.

Therefore in terms of Gold price action, we can expect the central banks to have effectively put a floor under the Gold price which the price charts implies is around $1550.

ZIRP - Zero interest rates are likely to continue until the markets force the central banks hands, which is something that there is no sign of at this point. ZIRP is a strong positive for Gold due to negative real interest rates and therefore indicates continuing upwards pressure on Gold price for as long as ZIRP continues.

Inflation Driving Gold Price?

US-CPI-inflation-mega-trend-nov-2012

The above graph clearly illustrates that even on the official CPI inflation measure (which tends to under report real inflation), that the US is no different to any other country which contrary to the delusional deflation propaganda is instead immersed in what has always been an exponential inflation mega-trend which vested interests and what can be only termed as deflation fools have been blindly regurgitating the threats ever since the Great Recession of the 2008-2009, which the above graph clearly illustrates amounted to nothing more than a mere blip or as I warned at the time of a deflationary ripple on the surface of an ocean of Inflation.

The Inflation Mega-trend Ebook of Jan 2010 (FREE DOWNLOAD), re-iterated that asset prices tend to be LEVERAGED to Inflation, which is precisely the trends that have subsequently transpired from stocks to commodities such as Gold and as I have been flagging during 2012, the housing markets, in which respect I will be taking a detailed look at the US housing market in the near future, ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter to get this in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast in your email in box.

However, even when taking into account Gold being leveraged to the Inflation Mega-trend, Gold rising by more than 300% over the past 10 years is well beyond the rise in CPI of 29%, so is much more a sign of a great deal of speculative interest than being driven by fundamentals. And another point for the Gold bug to consider is that in the late 1970's inflation was running at more than 10% per annum!

So whilst gold has not experienced a bubble spike, however it's relentless 10 year slog higher has accumulated much speculative interest that the subsequent 1.5 year corrective trend has been seeking to unwind, which still remains well above that which pure inflation indexation would have delivered over the same time period even after allowing for leverage, so one cannot look to the ongoing inflation mega-trend to generate additional over leveraged gains, instead the same trends imply that Gold needs to further dissipate speculative interest and therefore implies a continuation for a trading range.

U.S. Dollar Collapse?

One of the calls for why Gold will go higher is due to a sharp drop or even collapse of the US Dollar that many proponents have been stating for over the past 3 years. However the actual dollar trend shows that the dollar is in fact little changed. This is not as a consequence of dollar strength but that all currencies are in a state of perpetual free-fall against one another that manifests itself in asset and consumer price inflation.

gold-forecast-usd-nadeem-walayat

The chart also shows synchronicity between Gold and USD trends i.e. there are times when Gold and USD move with each other and at other times against. Current price action has both in synch in terms of trend, such cycles tend to persist for about 6 months, which implies the current phase has another 3 months to run. A quick take on the USD implies a continuing trading range.

Gold Annual Percent Change

gold-price-forecast-2013-1

The annual % change graph further illustrates that whilst Gold has not experienced a short-term price spike along the lines of that of 1979, however one can see that it has experienced several spikes that were spread out over a number of years i.e. into 2003, 2007 and 2010. With the intra-2011 spike not registering as Gold experienced a sharp sell off into the end of that year.

What does this suggest for Gold going forward ?

That the best gains for the gold bull market are probably behind us, i.e. that Gold despite intra-year spikes is unlikely to experience annual gains of much more than about 10% per year with the probable range of between +4% and +10% per annum, which is the year end range one can expect for Gold for 2013, or a target price of between $1726 and $1826, which is not exactly what many gold bugs will be dreaming of i.e. a 1970's style spike for which I do not see any signs of materialising at least for several years, let alone for Gold to actually hold a break to new all time highs thus probability favours the bull market continuing at a far more subdued rate. So another warning not to get carried away by the uttering's from a long list of Gold bugs such as Marc Faber and Jim Rogers who keep banging the drums for a bubble spike that may never materialise (over the next 5 years).

ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY - The elliott wave pattern implies that Gold had an ABC corrective pattern into June 2012 since which it has had an impulse wave 1, and in the midst of coming to an end of a wave 2 correction, and therefore implying that Gold is set for an Impulse wave 3 to new all time highs! i.e. the elliot wave pattern is strongly bullish, which is contrary to most of this analysis. However rather than entertaining alternative counts that will only seem probable with the benefit of hindsight, in this analysis I am discounting elliott wave as not giving me a reliable probability, the picture is just too neat, for it to actually materialise.

gold-price-forecast-2013-nadeem-walayat-2

TREND ANALYSIS - Gold repeatedly failed to hold the uptrend lines which keeps resolving in breaks lower. That is the pattern that the current trend line support suggests as being most probable, i.e. an imminent bounce higher towards $1710 and then another break of the trendline support which would target a trend towards $1550. Furthermore shallow trendlines imply less volatile trends for 2013, i.e. shallow up and down trends within the prevailing range.

SUPPORT / RESISTANCE - Gold is in a range trading channel, the main resistance is at $1800 and support at $1550, with a break above $1800 targeting $1900. Whilst support at $1550 looks quite strong, thus suggests a strategy of buying downtrends towards $1550 for range rallies to $1800, with potentials for a break higher that would next target resistance at $1900. Current price action in terms of the range appears to resolve towards $1550 during Q1 2013, before we can expect the next assault on $1800.

However the problem with ranges is that it is difficult to determine at what point the price breaks out, and the ultimate probability is for Gold to break higher, to first $1900 and then $2000 and the longer the range goes on the harder it tends to become for the price to actually breakout and therefore more difficult to forecast. Which means given the 18 months to date, gold could stay stuck in this range for the whole of 2013.

PRICE TARGETS - The immediate target is a low above $1550, the reaction from which suggests $1800.

MACD - The MACD indicator is weak and showing no signs of an imminent bottom, in fact it is confirming that Gold could trend lower for at least another month into late January which would time with the probability for a continuing downtrend towards $1550 and a risk that Gold could remain weak even into late February.

SEASONAL TREND - There is a strong seasonal tendency for gold to rally from November through January, however Gold is clearly not following the seasonal trend which implies inverse expectations. Therefore a weak Jan, Feb and stronger March and April.

Gold - Silver Ratio - Which is Cheaper?

On face value the gold-silver ratio chart implies that Silver is cheap. BUT Silver is heavily dependant upon sentiment, i.e. it needs a strong trend for gain against Gold. Whilst in a shallow trend or a trading range will continue to see silver increasingly lag behind Gold, which means that whilst Silver is cheaper than Gold, given expectations for a continuation of the Trading range, silver could yet get even cheaper relative to Gold i.e. as was the case during the first half of 2010.

gold-silver-ratio-nadeem-walayat

However should Gold breakout higher above $1800 we will see Silver start to significantly outperform, so I will definitely be keeping an eye on silver especially near Gold lows of $1550 as it would be trading at deeper discount.

Gold Risks of a Down Year

Gold has not had a down year for 12 years! Add to that expectations of a trading range of 1800 to 1550. Throw in a close of $1660, and annual volatility of 20% and then that implies a 40% risk of a down year, i.e. a close below $1660, which could yet worsen if Gold rallies into the end of the year i.e. Gold closing the year at say $1710 would imply a 60% chance of a down year, whilst a close at $1600 would imply just a 20% risk of a down year.

Gold Price Forecast Conclusion

The bottom line is that whilst the Gold bull market will likely continue until ZIRP ends, however Gold bugs are not going to like hearing that the best years of gains are now probably behind gold, and that the best they can expect to achieve is gains of about 10% per annum as Gold is now in a mature bull market. Therefore my analysis resolves to the following key conclusions for 2013 -

1. That Gold looks set to trade within a range for most of the year of between $1550 and $1800.

2. That Gold should trend higher towards the end of the year with overall probability targeting a year end close in the region of $1760, which on the last close of $1660 implies a gain of about 6%, with a 40% risk of a small down close year i.e. between $1659 and $1550.

The below graph better illustrates how the Gold price could trend during the year.

gold-price-forecast-2013-nadeem-walayat

The risks to the forecast are that the Gold price breaks higher to first target $1900.


My Gold Investing / Trading Strategy

gold-coins-bullionI will be adopting two potential strategies.

1. I will eye accumulating Gold when it is sub $1580 for long-term investments, probably upto 6% of total portfolio (Gold and Silver). Silver offers the better long-term opportunity in terms of risk vs reward off of the lows due to expectations for a deeper discount and greater long-term potential.

2. I will attempt to trade the range when opportunities arise i.e. buy off of $1550 triggers and exit from $1800 triggers. With the risk of an ultimate breakout higher I will refrain from trading the short-side. Also remember trading commodities is extreme high risk!

Ensure you remain subscribed to my always free newsletter to get my next in-depth analysis and concluding trend forecast.

Source and Comments: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article38201.html

Happy Holidays

&

a Prosperous New Year

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

Copyright © 2005-2012 Marketoracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd). All rights reserved.

Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of three ebook's - The Inflation Mega-TrendThe Interest Rate Mega-Trendand The Stocks Stealth Bull Market Update 2011 that can be downloaded for Free.

gold-weekly

 



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