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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Price Rally: Enjoy The Ride

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 11 April 2017 06:50

Apr 11, 2017

  1. Is it last call, for US stock market alcohol? The current price action of gold, the yen, the Indian rupee, and Chindian stock markets suggests that investors who have moved their focus from American stock markets to gold, silver and Chindian stock markets… are doing the right thing.
  2. America sports one of the worst demographics profiles in the world. The “make the ageing debt-soaked citizens and government great” plan will do little more than create a macabre version of America’s 1950s Happy Days TV show.  
  3. The new Richie Cunningham is 75 years old, works 2 or 3 part-time jobs, and has no real savings. The only way to “make Richie great”… is to let him retire. 
  4. Unfortunately, the US government is eagerly spending trillions of dollars of borrowed money on insane regime change and wars in the Mid-East, while throwing food stamps to its own citizens. 
  5. It’s no surprise that the US stock market is now being carried higher by fewer and fewer stocks. The Fed has barely started its hiking cycle, and it will soon begin “reverse QE” (shrinking its balance sheet). That’s very inflationary, and negative for the US stock and bond markets.
  6. Also, auto sales are suddenly shrinking. Top Goldman analysts predict it may be the start of a bigger trend that could last for years. As sales drop, car companies will raise prices to make up for lost revenues.
  7. The bottom line: Stagflation is beginning. The idea that Donald Trump is going to override the peaking US business cycle without eliminating income taxation and capital gains taxation is a ridiculous fantasy. 
  8. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this great-looking daily gold chart.
  9. There’s no question that gold can pull back at any time now, given the extent of the rally, but even a decline to $1225 would only add to the positive look of the chart.
  10. Please  click here now. India sports the greatest citizen demographics in the world, and big name Chinese and Hong Kong stocks are trading near book value. 
  11. Sell some winning stock market positions in America. Buy some positions in Chindia. That’s a sensible strategy. 
  12. Wise Chinese business builders are working with Indians in Dubai now, to turn the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange into what I predict will become the undisputed centre of world gold price discovery.
  13. Western gold bugs may be somewhat over-focused on COT reports for gold/silver, and under-focused on the yen, the rupee, and Chindian growth. 
  14. The COT reports suggest gold can pull back, but only modestly. So, there’s no need for fear. My “Uptrend of Champions” on the daily gold chart looks solid, and gold is marching higher again this morning. Greed is a warning sign, but there is no investor greed now. There is nervousness. That suggests the uptrend is healthy.
  15. Please  click here now. Next, please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. As the dollar disintegrates against the rupee, I’ll dare to suggest it’s likely making a multi-decade top.
  16. The sun is setting (permanently) on the American empire. For gold, the rupee, the yuan, and Chindian stock markets, the sun is rising. It will likely keep rising for an entire century of time.
  17. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. The dollar looks like a train wreck against both the rupee and the yen. It’s almost impossible for gold to decline in a serious way when those two currencies are beating on the dollar. Here’s why:
  18. Big bank FOREX traders buy gold as a currency when the dollar tumbles against the yen. That’s in play now.
  19. A continued rise in the rupee increases the purchasing power of gold-obsessed Indian citizens. If they can buy more gold with their fiat currency, they will do so. In the mind of the Indian gold buyer, a rise in the rupee versus the dollar is the same thing as a fall in the dollar price of gold. It also opens the door for a gold import duty cut because it cuts the government’s current account deficit. 
  20. Regardless, I’ll caution junior gold stock enthusiasts about getting too excited, too soon. It’s a great time (the greatest in history) to accumulate junior gold stocks, but it takes time for inflation to become problematic in the eyes of institutional money managers. 
  21. Until they see problematic inflation right in front of them, these money managers will focus on senior gold stocks. Juniors can still do well, but they won’t stage the kind of “one hundred bagger” action that is possible when inflation begins to get out of control.
  22. Please  click here now. I’ve suggested that oil is making a major low. If RBC’s top oil analyst is correct (I think she is), and oil is headed 20% higher this year, that’s going to usher in a significant ramp-up in institutional concern about inflation. Gold stocks almost always lead bullion in an inflationary environment, and do so in quite a big way.
  23. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this fabulous GDX chart.
  24. Note the “flat line” event in play on the 14,7,7 series Stochastics oscillator, at the bottom of the chart. A nice upside breakout from a rectangle pattern is also in play. I predicted that Janet’s third rate hike would produce a third major rally in gold stocks, and that’s exactly what is happening. It’s time for Western gold bugs to throw some caution to the wind. Sit back and enjoy the ride… up to my $26 profit-booking target zone for GDX!

Thanks! 

Cheers
st

Apr 11, 2017
Stewart Thomson  
Graceland Updates
website: www.gracelandupdates.com

 

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Stewart Thomson is a retired Merrill Lynch broker. Stewart writes the Graceland Updates daily between 4am-7am. They are sent out around 8am. The newsletter is attractively priced and the format is a unique numbered point form; giving clarity to each point and saving valuable reading time.

Risks, Disclaimers, Legal
Stewart Thomson is no longer an investment advisor. The information provided by Stewart and Graceland Updates is for general information purposes only. Before taking any action on any investment, it is imperative that you consult with multiple properly licensed, experienced and qualifed investment advisors and get numerous opinions before taking any action. Your minimum risk on any investment in the world is 100% loss of all your money. You may be taking or preparing to take leveraged positions in investments and not know it, exposing yourself to unlimited risks. This is highly concerning if you are an investor in any derivatives products. There is an approx $700 trillion OTC Derivatives Iceberg with a tiny portion written off officially. The bottom line:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Stocks: Key Tactics For Investors

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 07 April 2017 06:58

Today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):
  

SF Juniors Trading Charts & Video Analysis

1a


SF Juniors Core Position Charts & Video Analysis



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Finds Strong Support from Negative Real Rates

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 06 April 2017 07:59

metal-focus-sees-gold-rising-1475-this-year-negative-rates-04-2017

In case you haven’t already noticed, inflation has been steadily creeping up since July. In February, the most recent month of available data, consumer prices advanced at their fastest pace in five years, hitting 2.7 percent year-over-year. March data won’t be released until next week, but I expect prices to proceed on this upward trend, buttressed by rising mortgages and costs associated with health care and energy.

One of the consequences of strong inflation is that real rates—what you get when you subtract the current consumer price index (CPI) from the nominal rate—have turned negative. And when this happens, gold has typically been a beneficiary. This is the Fear Trade in action.

Take a look below. Gold shares an inverse relationship with the real 10-year Treasury yield, which is influenced by consumer prices. When inflation is soft and the yield goes up, gold contracts. But when inflation is strong, as it is now, it can push the Treasury yield into subzero territory, prompting many investors to move into other so-called safe haven assets, including gold.



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Gold & Precious Metals

Record $10 Trillion Paper Gold Trading Market Continues To Depress Price

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Tuesday, 04 April 2017 07:40

How do you depress the physical gold price?  It’s quite easy… you throw $10 trillion paper dollars at it.  Not only did global paper gold trading amount reach a new record in 2016, it surpassed the previous year’s total by nearly 50%.

This is simply amazing when we look around at the staggering amount of insanity taking place in the financial markets.  With the economic and financial markets sitting at the edge of the cliff, it would seem prudent for investors to curtail their highly leverage bets in the “Paper Gold Casino” and buckle down by purchasing real physical metal.

Unfortunately, the Mainstream media and the Financial networks have totally lobotomized investors by removing the following vocabulary from the mushy substance between their ears….. Wisdom, Prudent, Long-term, Safe-haven and Gold-Silver.

With the advent of twitter, wisdom today comes down to reading no more than ONE SENTENCE.  Anything longer than that is a complete waste of time when it is better spent sitting in front of six computer monitors trading digits.  Forget about investing one’s money to build up a real company, when it is more stimulating to try and SCALP tiny profits by trading stocks all day fueled by a half dozen monster energy drinks.

This is called progress…… a giant leap forward for mankind and technology.

Global Gold Exchange Notional Trading Amount Hit New $10 Trillion Record In 2016

According to GFMS newly released 2017 Gold Survey, total global exchange notional trading amount reached $9.8 trillion in 2016.  This was up 46% from $6.7 trillion in 2015.  These figures were based on the total amount of “volume in nominal tonne equivalent” traded on nine exchanges.  For example, here are the top four exchanges annual gold traded quoted by GFMS:

  1.  COMEX = 179,047 tonnes
  2.  SHFE = 34,760 tonnes
  3.  SGE = 11,793 tonnes
  4.  TOCOM = 8,541 tonnes

The total amount of paper gold traded on the nine exchanges in 2016 equaled 243,000 metric tons versus 180,000 metric tons the previous year.  I took these values and multiplied them by the average annual gold price to arrive at the figures below.  I also compared these figures to the total amount of physical gold retail investment for each year (source GFMS 2017 Gold Survey):

Global-Gold-Notional-Trading-Value-vs-Physical-Investment-768x579



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Gold & Precious Metals

Warning Signs In Precious Metals

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Monday, 03 April 2017 07:12

Precious metals closed the first quarter with solid gains. Gold gained almost 9% while Silver gained 14%. The miners (GDX and GDXJ) gained the same amounts (9% and 14%) but unlike the metals which closed at their highs of the quarter, ended up losing more than half their gains. Despite a strong quarter, the entire complex remains below the February highs and 200-day moving average (ex Silver)  just days after the US Dollar index rebounded strongly from its own 200-day moving average. As the second quarter begins, the warning signs for precious metals are mounting.  

It is never a good sign when Gold is the strongest part of the sector and especially while the sector trades below key moving averages. While Silver rests above its 200-day moving average and has recently outperformed Gold on a percentage basis, unlike Gold it has yet to reach its late February highs around $18.50. So in that respect Silver has lagged Gold. Meanwhile, the miners have not even come close to returning to their 200-day moving averages or February highs. They first reached their 200-day moving averages ahead of the metals and also began their correction first.

Apr22017pms-768x672



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