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Gold & Precious Metals

Bull run for gold sheer fantasy or is it forming the base for the next upward leg?

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Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Tuesday, 09 May 2017 00:00

The Gold bugs and Gold experts must be going through hell; almost seven years later and the Gold Markets refuse to follow the path these individuals have laid out for it. Proclamation after proclamation has failed, and the detested dollar much to their angst and surprise has continued to trend higher. Inflation has not taken off as they expected; well at least based on the distorted figures the government issues. The masses believe this data is real and that is all that matters in the end. Truth or a lie is based on a perception and perceptions are driven by emotions, which means that everything is up for debate. What holds true today might not hold true tomorrow or what is deemed valid today might be deemed as rubbish tomorrow.

In Jan of this year, we published an article titled Gold market ready to breakout? A small excerpt is listed below:

 Throughout 2016, we stated we did not expect much from Gold, and we stuck to this forecast, even though many experts went out of their way to report that Gold was ready to soar to the Moon or even to the next Galaxy. In fact, since 2011, we have continuously said that until the Trend turns positive, it would be best to play other lucrative markets, such as the general equities market, the US dollar, etc. During this time several experts stated that Gold was ready to surge and some issued insane targets ranging from $20,000-$50,000.

You would think that experts would try to release targets that made some sense. After all, Gold has not even traded past $2,000, so it makes one wonder how any individuals with a shred of common sense could issue a target of over  $5,000. Even this target is quite high, and we only envision it being struck under extreme conditions.

It appears nothing has changed and the overall outlook remains as uncertain as it did in 2014, 2015 and 2016. In January we stated that the Gold market had triggered several bullish signals that should have taken Gold to the 1360 ranges. In any other market, such a confluence of bullish signals would have produced a much stronger effect; the word muted is a kind way to describe Gold’s move to date. However, as the overall trend was still neutral, we also stated we were not ready to fully embrace the Gold markets.

Gold has now given the first signal that it is getting ready to test the $1360 ranges with a possible overshoot to the $1380 ranges. A weekly close above $1380 will set up the path for a test of and potential challenge of the 2011 highs. Tactical Investor 

It could not even trade past $1300 on a weekly basis; the word pathetic comes to mind when one examines the Gold markets actions over the past few months. It appears that Gold markets are destined to experience more pain before attempting to challenge the $1300 ranges. Adding to the misery; the dollars consolidation is drawing to an end, and Gold is now trading in the overbought ranges.

The trend is what determines whether we embrace an investment or not. The trend was neutral in back in Jan, and it remains neutral on the long term charts and negative on the short term charts. In other words, the Gold market appears ready to pullback as opposed to breaking out.  We will not embrace Gold until the trend changes as there are many other markets out there that make for a better investment. One such example is the biotech sector; however, one needs to tread with caution as this sector is full of speculative plays.

Gold May 2017



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Gold & Precious Metals

Silver Interim Update After Silver Long's "Taken To The Woodshed"

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Posted by Clive Maund

on Monday, 08 May 2017 09:00

The writing was on the wall weeks ago, when silver’s COTs reached insane extremes, and so we called for silver to get slammed in the last Silver Market update. For a few days after that was posted silver, and especially gold, continued higher, thanks to Trump’s military adventures in the Mid-East and threat to N Korea, and the hate mail started to trickle in, which was another sign that silver longs were about to take a broadside, and that is exactly what has happened, as you will see on the latest 6-month chart for silver below.

silver6month070517

What is odd about this drop in Silver....

...continue reading HERE

 



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Gold & Precious Metals

How to Lose Money: Invest in Gold Stocks

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Posted by Mark Skousen - Investment U

on Saturday, 06 May 2017 01:10

“How to make a million? Start with $2 million - and invest in gold stocks!” - The Maxims of Wall Street (revised for gold bugs).

What is by far the most dangerous and high-risk sector of the market? Gold stocks!

Recently, I spoke at a gold bug convention, and after my talk, I was surrounded by several doctors, lawyers and other professionals who confessed that they had lost 70% of their portfolios.

“How is that possible?” I asked. “The stock market is at an all-time high!”

“We listened to the doom-and-gloom talks from speakers at this conference five years ago,” they admitted. “We sold out of the stock market and bought mining companies promoted here at this conference.”

It was a double whammy. As the Dow hit new highs, the penny mining stocks collapsed. It reminded me of an old financial book I have on my shelf, Wiped Out. How I Lost a Fortune in the Stock Market While the Averages Were Making New Highs. How? By investing in the wrong stocks!

I asked them why they were still at the same conference.

They answered, “We are doubling down.”

After that conversation, I decided to look into the mining sector. It turns out that penny mining stocks are a disaster over the long term. As investment banker Jeff Phillips once said, “Most penny stocks are like burning matches. If you hold them long enough, you get burned.”

But that’s not all. I also learned that major mining companies are big-time losers too. Since the year 2000, the price of gold itself has risen fourfold, but the miners themselves are extremely volatile and have gone nowhere over the past 17 years. Look at the long-term chart for Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) and Goldcorp (NYSE: GG). They look terrible.

gold-bugs-gold-stocks-1

Sometimes they offer excellent short-term speculations, but if you keep them too long, you are bound to lose - just like playing craps or blackjack in Las Vegas.

I was the moderator of a financial panel at this conference and asked the experts, “Can you name a single large mining company that has made money for investors over the past 15 to 20 years?



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Stock Cherry Picking Season

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Posted by Morris Hubbartt - Super Force Signals

on Friday, 05 May 2017 07:11

Today's videos and charts (double click to enlarge):
  

SFS Key Charts & Video Analysis

2zsgol



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Gold & Precious Metals

U.S GOLD SCRAP MARKET DRYING UP: Americans Pawned Off Their Best Asset To Go Further Into Debt

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Wednesday, 03 May 2017 06:48

After the U.S. economy disintegrated in 2008, due to the Banking and Housing crisis, Americans pawned off a record amount of gold.  How much gold?  Nearly, 32 million oz (1,000 metric tons).  That’s one heck of a lot of gold.   Matter-a-fact, U.S. gold scrap supply at its peak of 160 metric tons (mt) in 2011, was more than any other country in the world, even India and China.

It is quite unfortunate that Americans have pawned off their best asset only to go further into debt.  Thus, enabling them to buy more garbage and trinkets they really don’t need.  This is quite the opposite of Americans who become being extremely frugal and financially responsible after the 1930’s Great Depression.  Today, banks have made it easy for Americans to BUY NOW and PAY LATER.

The consequences of this “Buy now, pay later” economic model is explained in this recent zerohedge article, 45% Of Americans Spend Up To Half Their Income Repaying Credit Card Debts:

First, roughly 50% of Americans have debt balances, excluding mortgages mind you, of over $25,000, with the average person owing over $37,000, versus a median personal income of just over $30,000.

Therefore, it’s not difficult to believe, as Northwestern Mutual points out, that 45% of Americans spend up to half of their monthly take home pay on debt service alone….which, again, excludes mortgage debt.

Because 45% of Americans are paying up to half of their monthly income to pay down credit cards and debt, they can’t use this income to purchase new goods and services.  Thus, a staggering amount of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has been brought forward… thanks to easy credit and credit cards.

And, This is what Americans spent the most money on in the first quarter:

Americans-Q1-2017-Spending-768x483



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