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Gold & Precious Metals

Something Changed in the Silver Market in May: Here Are 3 Reasons Why

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Thursday, 25 May 2017 06:35

Something changed in the silver market in May as U.S. Silver Eagle sales have surged compared to the previous month.  This is quite interesting as precious metals sales and sentiment have declined in the West, especially in the United States, ever since Donald Trump was elected President.

Many precious metals investors thought that if Trump was elected, it would have been very positive for the gold and silver market.  Unfortunately, it seems as if the opposite was (is) the case.  Not only has demand for precious metals declined considerably in 2017 versus last year, so has sales of guns, ammo and survival food-supplies.  I gather many of those who follow the alternative media believe Trump is actually going to make America Great Again.  So, why protect oneself from a collapse?

This is a very bad assumption… as nothing has changed with Trump in the White House.  Furthermore, many analysts are saying that what Trump is doing could actually speed up the collapse of the U.S. economy and financial system.

Regardless, the fundamentals in the U.S. economy continue to disintegrate.  We are seeing economic bubble indicators reach or surpass what took place in 2007, before the bloodbath hit the U.S. Housing and Financial Markets.  However, there is one additional negative factor that wasn’t a problem in 2007 that is now a BLINKING RED LIGHT.

What is this new lousy fundamental?  It’s the U.S. and Global Oil Industry.  Back in 2007, most of the oil and gas companies were making decent cash flow and profits.  Unfortunately, the situation in the Oil Sector is orders of magnitude much worse than what is was in 2007.  Not only are the majority of oil and gas companies losing money, they have been also cutting their oil reserves.

This is extremely bad news for which very few Americans are aware.  Thus, we are now facing an extremely negative DOUBLE-EDGE SWORD of bubble economic indicators on top of a disintegrating oil industry.  Which means… the situation today is much worse than what took place back during the 2008 Global meltdown.

U.S. Silver Eagle Sales Surge In May Due To 3 Reasons

U.S. Silver Eagle sales surged 140% in May versus April… and we still have another week remaining in the month.  According to the recent update by the U.S. Mint, Silver Eagle sales reached 2,005,000 so far in May compared to 835,000 in April:

Silver-Eagle-Sales-APR-vs-MAY-2017

After seeing this spike in Silver Eagle demand, I called up a few of my contacts in the industry and asked if they could shed some light as to why sales jumped in May.  According to several sources, they stated that the huge increase in Silver Eagle sales were due to three reasons:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Another Useless Golden Cross Signal

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski

on Wednesday, 24 May 2017 07:22

Once again gold moved higher for some time, which once again made the short-term moving averages (including the 50-day moving average) rise faster than the long-term ones (including the 200-day moving average), which in turn generated the “all-important” golden cross and it is once again heavily commented by financial journalists and reported as something bullish.

There is one tiny problem with the above “analysis” - it’s not analysis. Those, who are reporting this “bullish” development didn’t check if it is indeed bullish – they are simply repeating the dictionary definition of the “golden cross” and they automatically assume that it applies to all markets, in which it is seen.

Golden Cross is not so Golden



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Gold & Precious Metals

Silver Leads Gold In Rate Hike Cycle

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 23 May 2017 07:09

May 23, 2017

  1. Since Chinese New Year buying peaked in February, gold has essentially traded sideways with a mild upside bias. Here’s why:
  2. Indian dealers are waiting for the government to announce the GST rate for gold, and it’s too early for them to begin stocking up for Diwali.
  3. So, the price discovery ball is now in the US central bank’s court. I’ll dare to suggest that most gold market investors don’t fully understand the relationship between interest rates, money velocity, and gold.
  4. Gold rises when events create or signify rising risk, regardless of what those events are. Sometimes a decline in interest rates increases risk, and sometimes a rise in rates increases risk.
  5. In the current environment, rising rates increase the odds that banks will lend money so aggressively that inflation rises much faster than interest rates. 


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Gold & Precious Metals

Some Perspective On The Latest Commitment Of Traders Report

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Posted by Craig Hemke - TFMetalsReport.com

on Monday, 22 May 2017 07:03

Last Friday's CoT for the Comex Metals was rather interesting from a historical perspective. Because of this...and because we know that not everyone listened to Friday's podcast...it seemed appropriate to type up this written summary today.

Before we begin, it is VERY important to note the restrictions that have been deliberately placed on this info by the CFTC. Even though the Commitment of Traders reports are surveyed at the Comex close each Tuesday, the CFTC purposefully waits 74 hours before releasing the data to the general public. As you consider the degree to which the "regulators" at the CFTC are complicit in the ongoing price management and manipulation, ask yourself why it takes a handful of dedicated public servants 3 days to crank out these spreadsheets: http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/other_lf.htm

Also, we are going to assume that this data is accurate. There have been occasions in the past where the CFTC has put out some numbers that seemed odd and inconsistent to those of us who follow the reports weekly....only to have the CFTC come back the following week and correct their "mistakes".

And lastly, never assume that this data is sacrosanct and honestly reported by The Banks. Over just the past three years, JPMorgan has been fined on several occasions for knowingly submitting false data:

OK, now that we have that behind us, let's take a look at last Friday's report and point out a few of the important points.

Let's start with Comex Digital Gold (or as we call it here, "CDG"). As you assess where price may go from here, please consider the following:

  • Over the past three reporting weeks, price has fallen by $35 or nearly 3%.
  • During this time period, the Large Speculators in CDG have reduced their NET long position by over 71,000 contracts or about 37%.
  • As of last Tuesday, when this latest CoT was surveyed, the Large Spec NET long position was just 126,724 contracts and the Commercial NET short position was just 142,859 contracts. These are the lowest NET positions since the CoT survey of February 21, 2017.
  • At 142,859 contracts NET short, the Commercial NET short position has been trimmed by more than 1/3 in just the past three weeks.
  • Perhaps most importantly from a historical perspective, at the recent price highs of July 5, 2016, the NET long position of the Large Specs was 316,037 contracts and the NET short position of the Commercials was 340,207. Ask yourself how high might price rise if these 200,000 Spec longs return to the Comex over the next few months?

Finally, for CDG, consider this chart:

q 3

Now let's turn our attention to Comex Digital Silver or "CDS" for it's here that the changes are rather eye-opening. Let's lay some of them out as we did above for CDG:



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Gold & Precious Metals

Gold Somewhat Ignores Dollar Weakness

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Posted by Jordan Roy-Byrne - The Daily Gold

on Friday, 19 May 2017 20:20

The precious metals complex rebounded as expected after becoming very oversold just a few weeks ago. The rebound has been aided by weakness in the US Dollar, which plunged roughly 2% over several days. However, upon further inspection Gold’s rebound has been entirely dollar-centric. Gold has remained weak in real terms and strength in the gold stocks and Silver has been rather muted. In short, the lack of much stronger performance in the face of US Dollar weakness bodes for increasing downside risk over the near term. 

Gold’s recent strength has been driven entirely by Euro strength and not due to falling real interest rates, its primary fundamental driver. Macron’s win in France coupled with recent strength in European markets has supported what was an oversold and depressed Euro. This has supported Gold in US Dollar terms but only in those terms. As the chart below shows, Gold has been weak when measured against foreign currencies and equities.

May192017Goldvs

The above chart shows that Gold remains well below its spring high near $1300 despite the US Dollar breaking its spring lows to the downside. In addition, Gold remains rather weak relative to foreign currencies and equities. The one hope for Gold would be a falling stock market and sustained strength in the Gold/equities ratio. While I expect that eventually, I do not think it is in the cards yet.

Turning to the gold mining stocks, we see immediate downside risk as the miners appear to have completed their oversold bounce.



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