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Joe “Soros” Sixpack

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Posted by Jared Dillan - Mauldin Economics

on Thursday, 07 September 2017 08:03

20170907 10th

Here’s the least original statement of 2017: There are a lot of different ETFs. There are:

  • Equity ETFs
  • International ETFs
  • Fixed income ETFs
  • Currency ETFs
  • Commodity ETFs
  • Volatility ETFs

 

There are a few others I forgot, plus leveraged and inverse versions of most of these.

As you know, macro investing is where you take a top-down view of economic trends. You then take long or short positions in: equities, international equities, fixed income, currencies, commodities, volatility… with or without leverage.

WAIT A MINUTE.

ETFs have made it possible for everyday investors to invest like George Soros.

Except most everyday investors inevitably do a much worse job than George Soros!

Still, it is lots of fun. It is just probably not in the best interests of your retirement savings.



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Personal Finance

Are You Prepared for These Potentially Disruptive Economic Storms?

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 29 August 2017 06:44

COMM-hurricane-harvey-08252017Here in San Antonio, grocery stores were packed with families stocking up on water and canned food in preparation for Hurricane Harvey, which has devastated Houston and coastal Texas towns. I hope everyone who lives in its path took the necessary precautions to stay safe and dry—this storm was definitely one to tell your grandkids about one day.

Similarly, I hope investors took steps to prepare for some potentially disruptive economic storms, including this past weekend’s central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, and the possibility of a contentious battle in Congress next month over the budget and debt ceiling.

As you’re probably aware, central bankers from all over the globe visited Jackson Hole this past weekend to discuss monetary policy, specifically the Federal Reserve’s unwinding of its $4.5 trillion balance sheet and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) ongoing quantitative easing (QE) program. Janet Yellen gave what might be her last speech as head of the Federal Reserve.

As I told Daniela Cambone on last week’s Gold Game Film, there are some gold conspiracy theorists out there who believe the yellow metal gets knocked down every year before the annual summit so the government can look good. I wouldn’t exactly put money on that trade, but you can see there’s some evidence to support the claim. In most years going back to 2010, the metal did fall in the days leading up to the summit. Gold prices fell most sharply around this time in 2011 before rocketing back up to its all-time high of more than $1,900 an ounce.

Gold prices generally fell days before the annual economic symposium
click to enlarge



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Personal Finance

Fear or Fact, What Drives Your Trades & 3 Charts That Stand Out

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Posted by Tyler Bollhorn - StockScores

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 06:46

Screen Shot 2017-08-08 at 7.48.09 AM

In this week's issue:

  • Weekly Commentary
  • Strategy of the Week
  • Stocks That Meet The Featured Strategy

In This Week's Issue:

- New Stockscores website coming soon
- Stockscores at the Toronto Money Show
- Stockscores' Market Minutes Video - Avoiding Fear and Recklessness
- Stockscores Trader Training - Fear or Fact, What Drives Your Trades?
- Stock Features of the Week - Abnormal Breaks US
-
New Stockscores website coming soon
The new Stockscores website will be launching soon. Once it is live, you will no longer be able to subscribe to use the Stockscores Market Scan unless you have completed one of our courses. If you are subscribed before we make the switch, you will be grandfathered until you cancel your subscription.

Stockscores at the Toronto Money Show
I will be doing two presentations at the Toronto Money Show in September, one free and the other a Master Class that you can purchase a discounted ticket to until August 17th. For more information on these two presentations, click here.

Stockscores Market Minutes - Avoiding Fear and Recklessness
Traders must avoid fear and recklessness to be profitable. This week, I discuss this, my weekly market analysis and the trade of the week on LC. Click Here to Watch
To get instant updates when I upload a new video, subscribe to the Stockscores YouTube Channel

Trader Training - Fear or Fact, What Drives Your Trades?
Speaking from experience, I have found that most mistakes in trading are the result of succumbing to fear. When I say mistakes, I don't mean losses since losing money on trades is part of trading. Instead, I mean those bad trades that we all take which don't fit in to our trading strategy and plan.

The fear based decisions that cause us to deviate from our trading rules can be broken down in to two types.

First, the trading decisions that we make because of our fear of losing money. These are usually exit trades; we sell too early for fear that our winner will turn in to a loser. Perhaps we fail to take a trade that fits our criteria because our "common sense" tells us there is something wrong with the trade and that it can't succeed. Maybe we enter a trade later than we should because we want to see the market prove our trading idea correct, only to end up getting in once much of the run has happened.

The second fear based trading mistakes we make are those that are the result of our fear of missing out. These tend to be on the entry; we take trades that don't quite fit our rules because we focus on what might be, the profits that could happen. It may be that we listen to an "expert" in the media or follow the actions of the crowd and do what the headlines are telling us to do.

Have you ever succumbed to either of these fear based trading mistakes?

If you are a normal human being, I think it is highly unlikely that you have not. Since they happen to all of us, we need to figure out a solution. Fortunately, the solution is quite simple.

Rather than focus on fear, focus on fact. Make trades based on what is happening, not what you think could happen.

Many have described fear as "future events appearing real". We don't walk down a dark alley at night because we might get mugged. We don't swim in the ocean because we might get attacked by a shark. We don't fly on a plane because it might crash.

When we focus on what might happen, what our fear tells us to do, we typically ignore probability. The probability of getting attacked by a shark is extremely low. Last year, you actually had a greater chance of dying taking a selfie photograph than by being attacked by a shark. If we focus on fact, we get better results.

This does not mean you should ignore fear. It is there to protect us and, when probability is on the side of the decision, it is best to listen to fear. I stopped flying small airplanes because the statistics showed that it was a dangerous thing to do. I still trade stocks because I have strategies that put the statistics in my favor.

When you trade, take your focus off of your emotion and look at the facts. Develop a trading strategy that puts probability for profit in your favor. Have a process in place to assess the facts and take the trades that meet your requirements. Overcome fear in favor of fact.

This week, I looked at the Abnormal Gainers US on Monday and checked the charts for breaks of downward trend lines after a rising bottom had formed. This is a good turnaround indicator, here are a few charts that stand out:



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Personal Finance

How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own?

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Posted by Mike "Mish" Shedlock - Global Economic Trend AnalysisEconomic Trend Analysis

on Friday, 11 August 2017 06:44

Earlier today, I had the pleasure of discussing gold, equity valuations, bond bubbles, and inflation with Greg Hunter at USA Watchdog.

In the interview, I mentioned the nearly “everything bubble” and stated a belief that gold was one thing that was not in a bubble.

Following the interview, Hunter asked me to put my thoughts on gold and the “nearly” everything bubble in writing. Specifically, Hunter asked: “How Much Gold Should the Common Man Own?”

My answer follows. First, please consider my USA Watchdog interview: The Everything Bubble – Mike “Mish” Shedlock

How Much Gold?

There is no one correct percentage, but this rule applies: If you have trouble sleeping at night or are constantly worried about the price, then you likely have too much. If you are worried about a price drop of a few hundred dollars, or the equivalent percent in stock or bonds, you probably should not be investing in anything.

It’s curious that people are worried about gold but not the obvious bubbles that surround them. Media contributes to the ignorance by demonizing gold while praising bubbles.

It should be clear to any rational thinker that the Fed (central banks in general) blew amazing asset bubbles in equities and junk bonds in their response to the “Great Recession”. In their misguided quest to produce inflation, which they do not even know how to measure, central banks even re-blew the housing bubble.

In general, 10% to 25% in physical gold and silver seems like a reasonable amount. At major lows, miners offer tremendous opportunities. They were practically giving away miners in late 2015 and early 2016.

Outside of precious metals and miners, good investment opportunities are scarce. High cash allocations are likely to be wise. To be fair, I have been saying this for several years. This only proves that bubbles can always get bigger, until they don’t.

By Mike Shedlock



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Personal Finance

Britain to Raise Retirement Age to 68 to Try to Save Pensions

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 28 July 2017 07:08

20-Downing-StreetThe Work and pensions secretary David Gauke have revealed that parliament proposes to raise the pension age to 68. The pension crisis that is brewing throughout Western culture reflects the insanity of lowering interest rates to try to “stimulate” the economy. This policy has set the stage for the next great crisis brewing, which will expose the postwar Socialism is just a total failure.

The rise in government on average to about 40% of GDP means that this is consuming the wealth of every nation and suppressing the economic growth. This is forcing people to work longer to survive and hence they do not retire quickly into the sunset holding on to jobs that then in turn cause higher unemployment in the next two generations. There is not much we can do about this because politicians will never act to prevent a crisis, they perfect to act only when a crisis emerges. Consequently, the Pension Crisis is simply unavoidable.

...also from Martin:

Chernobyl and Bikini Atoll Are Rewriting Science



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