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Precious Metals v. Mining Stocks: What You Need to Know

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Posted by The Morgan Report

on Friday, 03 February 2017 12:19

Most readers of this column own (or plan to own) physical precious metals – gold and silver, perhaps even some platinum or palladium. They may also own mining stocks.

But which category is "best"? It's like asking, "What's the most efficient exercise?" or "What's the best fishing lure?" Truth be known, it's really about what you wish to accomplish! Here is my considered opinion...

Precious Metals Offer Insurance First – Profit Second

One should strongly consider holding physical precious metals for "investment first, profit potential second."

The primary function of "metals in hand" is to help offset the possible loss of purchasing power that inflation or a changing business/regulatory climate might visit on a person's other asset classes, such as the broad stock market, real estate, collectibles, and certainly, bonds.

"The One-Ring" – Gold and Silver

gold-silver-ringThis last category appears to be ending a literal 30-year bull market, during which time interest rates declined (and bonds rose) to levels not seen in many decades.

(A change in the secular trend, to rising interest rates, would have severe ramifications for the value of bonds, whether or not they are held to maturity.)

A side advantage, common in India but not discussed in this country, is that gold and silver can be easily be "pawned" when a person might not have other options for a loan. Just like any item left in the pawn shop owner's care, precious metals can be redeemed when the loan has been paid off.

Indians have a much more nuanced – and relaxed – view about metals' ownership. Outlookindia.com takes the pulse about how its citizens deal with the idea of buying gold and silver, noting, "If you bought gold today and its price falls tomorrow, you don’t say, oh, wish I had not bought gold, I lost money. You just look at your gold and say, I have got 200 grams of gold. That’s it."

Mining Stocks Are Speculations



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Personal Finance

Don't Count on the Great Rotation

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Posted by Michael Pento - Pento Portfolio Strategies

on Monday, 30 January 2017 12:04

After many false promises and one false start, it is becoming evident that 2017 will be the year the Federal Reserve finally begins down the road towards interest rate normalization. Therefore, it is likely that Ms. Yellen will cause bond yields to rise this year on the short-end of the yield curve. In addition, soaring debt and deficits, along with the lack of central bank bond-buying, should send long-term rates much higher as well.

Wall Street soothsayers, who viewed every Fed rate cut as a buying opportunity for stocks, are now busily assuring investors that the potential dramatic and protracted move higher in bond yields will be bullish for stocks as well.

Their theory holds that the price of stocks and bonds are negatively correlated, as one moves up the other moves down. Hence, the nirvana of a safely balanced portfolio is achieved by simply owning a fairly even distribution of both. Therefore, according to Wall Street, the end of the thirty-five-year bull market in bonds will be a welcomed event for equities. This myth has a name, and it's known as "the great rotation from bonds into stocks."

The concept suggests that the investible market works like a balanced fund; as money moves out of bonds, it moves into stocks. And of course, you could cherry pick cycles over the past few decades that would provide support for this opinion. For instance, the biggest rise in interest rates (fall in price) was from February 1978 to November 1980. During this time the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury rose from 8.04% to 12.80%, while stock market averages enjoyed a healthy gain.

But when you take a step further back and look at the correlation between stock prices and bond yields since Nixon broke the gold window in 1971, you quickly realize that there is no such positive relationship. In fact, most of the time stock prices and bond yields move in the opposite direction. As bond yields increased (prices down) during the stagflation of the 70's, stock prices went lower or simply stagnated. Then, after Fed Chair Paul Volcker vanquished inflation in the early '80s, bond yields fell (prices increased) and stock prices went along for the ride.

This relationship makes perfect sense. An unstable economic environment of rising inflation and rising borrowing costs causes equities to suffer. Conversely, a healthy economic environment of steady growth and low inflation is beneficial for stocks.

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Personal Finance

“America Works… Never Bet Against America”

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 24 January 2017 08:42

COMM-never-bet-against-america-warren-buffett-01202017

And like that, it happened. Despite the polls, despite what anyone believed was possible, including many of his own supporters, billionaire developer Donald J. Trump was sworn in as the 45th President of the United States.

Whether you agree with him not, he’s now leader of the world’s largest economy and commander of history’s most powerful military force.

This is something that could only happen in the U.S.

President Trump and now-former President Barack Obama couldn’t be more different in their backgrounds, visions and leadership styles—more so than any other two men whose administrations happen to adjoin the other’s.

And yet the transition went remarkably smoothly and orderly.

I don’t believe there’s ever been such a meaningful and potentially consequential transfer of power in U.S. history, with the incoming president all but promising to undo every last policy of his predecessor, line by line. That Obama peacefully and cordially handed over the executive office to a man who led the charge in questioning his legitimacy for a number of years is a testament to the strength and durability of our democratic process.

It’s a process that’s key to America’s exceptionalism.

Although I don’t always agree with Trump, it saddens me to see so much negativity about him in the media and protests in the streets. Now that he’s president, the time has come to unite behind him and root for his success. If he succeeds, America succeeds. If he fails—as many seem to hope for—America fails.

Take Warren Buffett. He backed Hillary Clinton throughout the primaries and general election. And yet on the eve of Trump’s inauguration, he said he supported the new president and his cabinet “overwhelmingly,” adding that he’s confident America “will work fine under Donald Trump.”



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Personal Finance

Jim ROGERS – Dollar and commodities for 2017, interest rates, inflation and why books

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Posted by Jim Rogers via The Economic Times

on Thursday, 19 January 2017 07:15

This 33 minute interview is encompasses the works, and especially on Rogers belief that the agricultural markets have been depressed for many years.

"I'm still extremely optimistic about agriculture, more so than many sectors of the world economy. Buy anywhere it's raining! Anywhere that has good weather, good soil, good laws, and there are many of those around – the African continent, South America, the middle part of Asia. There are many places where there are astonishing opportunities. I'm not sure I would rush out and buy Iowa right now because it's extremely expensive. But there are lots of places where the opportunities are good" - from the Daily Bell

 

Jim Rogers started trading the stock market with $600 in 1968.In 1973 he formed the Quantum Fund with the legendary investor George Soros before retiring, a multi millionaire at the age of 37. Rogers and Soros helped steer the fund to a miraculous 4,200% return over the 10 year span of the fund while the S&P 500 returned just 47%.

MW-DO749 Jim Ro ZG 20150624153247



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Personal Finance

10 Potential Black Swans And Opportunities For The U.S. Economy In 2017

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Posted by John Maulding via Seeking Alpha

on Tuesday, 17 January 2017 08:24

socialShareImage.imgSummary

* We've reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future.

* This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we're at several turning points.

* Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight.

We've reached that wonderful time of year when financial pundits pull out their forecaster hats and take a crack at the future. This time the exercise is particularly interesting because we're at several turning points. Any one of them could remake the entire year overnight.

I should probably say up front that I am actually somewhat optimistic about 2017 - optimistic, meaning I think we will muddle through - but that's a lot better outcome than I was expecting five months ago. However, mid-course corrections may be warranted.

Instead of trying to answer questions about the future, I'll try to list those we should be asking as 2017 opens.

We can't afford for any of the major components of the global economy to break down; so, it's smart to ask, "Where are the weak points?". That's what we'll do today. We'll poke at the economic mechanism as it grinds along.

Trumping DC

...continue reading HERE

...also:

Jim Rogers: Wall Street is wrong, 'you should put all your eggs into one basket'



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