Login

Energy & Commodities

The Single Biggest Bullish Catalyst For Oil

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by OilPrice.com

on Thursday, 17 August 2017 06:36

99fb49f10a87138e349a6cb290191410One of the key objectives for OPEC is to bring down inventories, a goal that has been elusive this year. But if the oil futures curve is anything to go by, the oil market is showing signs of tightening.

Brent futures have recently begun to exhibit a state of backwardation, which is when near-term oil futures trade at a premium to contracts dated further off into the future. This is the first time in years that backwardation has occurred, and most analysts are taking it as a sign that the oil market finally could be getting closer to rebalancing. In the past, backwardations have accompanied a rebound in the oil market after a bust, while a contango (the opposite of backwardation) tends to occur when the market crashes because of a supply glut.

There are several reasons why backwardation is bullish, which has been discussed in previous articles. A declining futures curve makes it uneconomical to store oil, so backwardation could accelerate the drawdown in inventories. It also complicates the hedging strategies of shale producers, which could hold back expansion plans. It also is a symptom of tightening near-term supplies, although, to be sure, the flip side of that argument is that it could merely be a reflection of expectations that the supply glut will reemerge at some point in the future.



Read more...

Banner

Energy & Commodities

Copper New Bull Trend? A correction first makes sense...

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Thursday, 17 August 2017 06:22

After what appears as a 5-wave rally; a correction lower would make sense.  But, it also appears a new bull trend may be underway. 

Screen Shot 2017-08-17 at 6.21.48 AM

....also from Jack Crooks:

Don't Bury The Buck Just Yet



Banner

Energy & Commodities

Is this the Start of a Hot New Metals Bull Market?

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 06:14

COMM-aluminum-metals-08112017

Major U.S. indices slid for a second straight week as President Donald Trump and North Korea both escalated their saber-rattling, with Kim Jong-un explicitly targeting Guam, home to a number of American military bases, and Trump tweeting Friday that “Military solutions are now fully in place, locked and loaded.” The S&P 500 Index fell 1.5 percent on Thursday, its largest one-day decline since May. Military stocks, however, were up, led by Raytheon, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.

As expected, the Fear Trade boosted gold on safe haven demand. The yellow metal finished the week just under $1,300, a level we haven’t seen since November 2016. Last week, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world, said it was time for investors to put between 5 and 10 percent of their portfolio in gold as a precaution against global and domestic geopolitical risks. The threat of nuclear war is at the top of everyone’s mind, but Dalio reminds us that our indecisive Congress could very well fail to agree on raising the debt ceiling next month, meaning a “good” government shutdown, as Trump once put it, would follow.

Dalio’s not the only one recommending gold right now. Speaking to CNBC last week, commodities expert Dennis Gartman, editor and publisher of the widely-read Gartman Letter, said that he believed “gold is about to break out on the upside strongly” in response to geopolitical risks and inflationary pressures. Gartman thinks investors should have between 10 and 15 percent of their portfolio in gold.

Government shutdowns haven’t always been harmful to the stock market—during the last one, in October 2013, stocks actually gained about 3 percent—but I agree that it might be prudent right now for investors to de-risk and ensure their portfolios include safe haven assets such as gold and municipal bonds. Dalio and Gartman’s allocation percentages mirror my own. For years, I’ve recommended a 10 percent weighting in gold, with 5 percent in bullion and 5 percent in high-quality gold stocks, mutual funds and ETFs.

Analysts Bullish on Metals and Commodities



Read more...

Banner

Energy & Commodities

Is Kim Jung-un Blinking?

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 14 August 2017 07:57

Kim-Jung-un-Characture
Kim Jung-un in North Korea is refusing to blink yet he maybe. He has turned domestically first in the ongoing crisis and has now announced a massive army recruitment program. An article in a Pyongyang-based propaganda newspaper today declared already more than 3.5 million people had signed up to fight. The newspaper is claiming that millions were “volunteers” including students and former soldiers.

The truth is that the North Korean army is subjected to absolute obedience to the Kim dynasty. If civilians are scrambling to volunteer, it is also likely that they are malnourished and desperate civilians. Yet this peals back the fact that Kim is blinking.


His latest claim that 3.47 million people had asked to enlist in the army since the North Korean crisis began, is shifting his power achievement away from missiles and to people. Even their currency reflect the old communist subservient duty to the state. The man holds his Marxist bible and the woman is gathering wheat in the fields. This may have the impact of worsening the economy if true for feeding that many more soldiers is impossible for his regime without reducing rations for the current army soldier.



Read more...

Banner

Energy & Commodities

Are Oil Bulls About To Be Burned Again?

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Nick Cunningham - OilPrice.com

on Thursday, 10 August 2017 08:52

Oil investors have grown more optimistic as of late, as oil prices have moved back to $50 per barrel. The market appears to be on sounder footing, suggesting that things will gradually tighten for the rest of the year. But it is unclear how far oil prices can really move above today’s position.

Hedge funds and other money managers have begun buying up long positions on oil futures, a sign of growing bullishness. Reuters analyst John Kemp argues that the positioning of hedge funds has entered the third bullish phase of 2017, after two previous cycles ran their course earlier this year.

20170810 oil1 0

In fact, the most recent data saw the largest weekly increase in net-long positions so far this year, and interestingly, Kemp points out that the net-long build is due to new long positions, rather than simply just a reduction of shorts. 

...continue reading HERE



Banner

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >> Page 2 of 204

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Our Premium Service:
The Inside Edge on Making Money

Latest Update

To BEAT the market, you cannot BE the market.

Recently we attended an investor conference in Toronto. One of the questions we frequently get at these events is how many stocks one should...

- posted by Ryan Irvine

Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Ozzie Jurock Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine