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Energy & Commodities

Forecast Summary: Commodities, Forex and Stocks

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Posted by Ken Ticehurst

on Monday, 24 October 2016 07:53

We should now begin to see a drop in WTI over the next couple of months and in to 2017, so far the consolidation that has occurred over the last few weeks has been as forecast and the next down phase we have been modeling for months is now due.

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We have been forecasting for some time that the the Pound would be the weakest of the major currencies going forward and so far of all the major currencies it has been with the Euro not far behind.

Our forecast for a new down leg down in the Euro against the Dollar has remained on track for some time, we do now appear to beginning the next Dollar bull phase which could see parity within months. We expect this Dollar strength to be negative for many stock markets and other assets going forwards.



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Energy & Commodities

Four Companies for the Metals Market Turnaround

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Posted by Gwen Preston - Streetwise Reports

on Friday, 14 October 2016 06:54

The bear market was tough. Lots of companies went into complete hibernation; lots of people left the sector. It takes time for companies to get going again, but they have begun to get back on their feet, says Gwen Preston, founder of Resource Maven. She discusses some of the major trends she sees in the mining industry, and profiles several companies that survived the lean years and could lead the pack going forward.

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Majors Are on the Hunt
Majors, after selling almost everything to survive the bear market, need to start restocking the pipeline again. Usually that process starts with new production and near-development stories, but there just aren't very many such assets around. The bear market derailed so many projects that only a small number are ready to be built or are newly operational. Majors are circling these opportunities but, because they know competition will be stiff, they are also going straight to exploration-stage opportunities.



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Energy & Commodities

The World's Most Hated Commodity Becomes Attractive

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Posted by Dave Forest - Pierce Points

on Friday, 14 October 2016 06:43

coal3This Brand-New Energy Heavyweight Says Coal Is A Buy

As I've been discussing recently, there have been signs of life for the coal market the last few weeks

And this week, the world's most hated commodity got another big vote of confidence -- from one of the newest major players in global energy markets. 

That's Japan's Jera Co. A joint venture created last year between Japan's two largest power companies, Tokyo Electric Power Co. Holdings Inc. and Chubu Electric Power Co. 

And on Tuesday, Jera said it's buying into coal -- in a big way. 



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Energy & Commodities

The Coming Oil Price Crash

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Thursday, 13 October 2016 06:40

290887abfac3c601b63ec0c45771614dWe have been hearing a great deal about IMF concerns recently, after the release of its October 2016 World Economic Outlook and its Annual Meeting from October 7-9. The concerns mentioned include the following:

- Too much growth in debt, with China particularly mentioned as a problem
- World economic growth seems to have slowed on a long-term basis
- Central bank intervention required to produce artificially low interest rates, to produce even this low growth
- Global international trade is no longer growing rapidly
- Economic stagnation could lead to protectionist calls

These issues are very much related to issues that I have been writing about:

....continue reading HERE

...related:

For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices?



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Energy & Commodities

For How Long Can OPEC Talk Up Oil Prices?

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Wednesday, 12 October 2016 06:03

Not a day passes without OPEC making oil and gas headlines, and today is surely no exception. Seemingly in lockstep with OPEC, the market is once again pacified on the promise that changes to the global oil supply glut are a' comin'.

Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal quoted anonymous sources close to the matter who had it on good authority that the Saudi's were willing to cut "up to" 400,000 barrels per day (and that they had planned to do so all along, with or without an OPEC agreement). We can assume this figure is off August or September levels, which are near-record highs for the oil-rich country.

Of course, there are 400,000 different possible production cut figures included in this "up to 400,000" range -- including a big fat zero -- so fundamentally speaking, like so much of the OPEC speak, this could mean nothing.

But this isn't the first time OPEC chatter or supposition or guesswork has moved markets, and it won't be the last. Because, as Oilprice contributor Rakesh Upadhyay pointed out back in August, just a month before the freeze was announced, fundamentals aren't what's driving the oil market -- speculation is. And nothing feeds speculators like OPEC.

As Upadhyay wrote, "Though most analysts agreed that a production freeze was not going to alter the fundamentals, prices rose sharply, with the hedge funds adding record long positions," as evidenced by the chart below, which shows what happened in February when OPEC cuts were on the table for Doha. Fundamentals didn't change -- the glut wasn't easing -- yet hedge funds and speculation on OPEC rumors drove up prices.

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