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Energy & Commodities

Another Major Warning That Trouble Lies Directly Ahead

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Posted by Jeffery Saut via King World News

on Wednesday, 02 August 2017 06:55

King-World-News-Former-White-House-Official-Warns-Another-Derivatives-Nightmare-Is-About-To-Shock-The-World-864x400 cJason Goepfert at SentimenTrader:  “According to the latest AAII survey, individual investors are now holding their lowest cash allocation since 2000.

....view Jason's chart HERE

 

.....also from King World News:

A Huge Clue As To Where Gold, Silver, Commodities And The Mining Shares Are Headed



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Energy & Commodities

Is A Bull Market For Natural Gas Around The Corner?

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Friday, 28 July 2017 06:39

b15f98a9b558a3706846715be661ae95While the number of drilled but uncompleted wells (DUCs) in the U.S. oil patch is growing as producers wait for higher oil prices, the shale gas plays have seen the number of DUCs decline as drillers take advantage of higher natural gas prices this year compared to last year’s lows.

Expectations of additional takeaway capacity coming online—as well as the rebound in natural gas prices—are making drillers more confident that they will be able to sell their production at higher prices. The companies are still cautious after the downturn, but the economics of drilling an oil well and a gas well have diverged since the 2015-2016 price rout. Gas prices have almost doubled since March 2016, and drillers are hoping that a bull market is coming, analysts reckon.



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Energy & Commodities

Is Big Oil Planning Its Funeral By Ignoring The Obvious?

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Posted by Sol Palha - Tactical Investor

on Thursday, 27 July 2017 08:51

Many of the reports published that cover oil consumption and how quickly consumers will embrace Electric Vehicles (EV) paint a far rosier outlook for the future of oil than the facts dictate. The reason is simple; most of these reports tend to be written or sponsored by big oil and so they tend to be biased. We are not stating that this is the end of oil, but its glory days are probably behind it. One thing is obvious; the peak oil theory experts are and were always full of rubbish. In fact, we penned several articles over the years covering this issue the latest of which was titled “peak oil debunked”.

Factors against big oil

Battery prices are plunging 

The most expensive component in EV’s boils down to the battery. Battery prices have been plummeting at a very rapid rate. In 2016, Bloomberg noted that battery prices dropped 35%; bear in mind that was at the beginning of 2016. Battery prices have continued to plummet since then; in fact, the latest survey illustrates that battery prices have dropped 80% in just six years

EV1
Average Battery Pack Price 


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Energy & Commodities

Mining Stocks’ Extreme Signal

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Posted by Paul Rejczak - Sunshine Profits

on Monday, 24 July 2017 06:58

Briefly: In our opinion, full (150% of the regular full position) speculative short positions in gold, silver and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective at the moment of publishing this alert.

The biggest event of the previous week was the huge decline in the USD Index – the reaction of the precious metals market – especially the mining stocks – was very specific. What can we infer from the size and additional details of the metals and miners’ upswing?

Let’s take a look at the charts, starting with the USD Index (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).

pr up 2017 07 24 1 IVGix6i

The USD Index broke below the late-2016 lows on Friday and there are a few things that we would like to stress. Firstly, the USD Index declined in an accelerated manner (reverse parabola), which is how the most volatile price swings end (remember the 2011 top in gold?). Secondly, the RSI indicator is the most oversold since the 2011 bottom (yes, the situation is so extreme at this point), while the fundamental picture still favors higher USD Index values (rising rates in the U.S. compared to expansive monetary policy in the EU and Japan, despite somewhat hawkish comments from Mario Draghi). Thirdly, while the USD broke through the short-term support levels, it is now approaching a long-term one – the 2015 and 2016 lows in terms of the weekly closing prices. They are just above the 93 level – about 0.6 below last week’s low. That’s only half of last week’s decline that would need to be seen for the USD to reach these key lows. In fact, just a repeat of Friday’s decline would almost be enough.

All of these factors point to a nearby reversal and the way that gold, silver, and – in particular – mining stocks have been reacting to the USD’s decline (to a limited extent) suggests that a reversal in the USD is likely to trigger a sharp decline in the precious metals sector.



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Energy & Commodities

Wednesday Report…Basic Materials and Commodities

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Posted by Rambus Chartology

on Friday, 21 July 2017 06:41

Since the Basic Materials sector is breaking out I would like to take an in-depth look at some of the stocks that make up the Basic Materials sector along with some commodities in general. Most commodities have had a tough go of it since they topped out in 2011, but there are some signs that they may be bottoming, which could lead to a substantial rally over the intermediate to the long term. As you will see some of the bottoming formations are very symmetrical while others are pretty ugly, but as long as they can make a higher high and higher low an uptrend is in place.

Lets start with the CRB index which built out a one year bearish rising wedge formation that broke to the downside in March of this year. The price action has been chopping to the downside and has gotten a bounce to the upside in late June. Normally the price objective of a rising wedge is down to the first reversal point where the pattern started to build out.

crb-day-1

 

There is another pattern I’ve been keeping a close eye on which may have given us a good clue today that we may have a consolidation pattern building out which is forming above the January 2016 low. As you can see on this long term daily chart for the CRB index it has built out a sideways trading range which broke to the downside last month, which wasn’t a bullish development if one was bullish on this index.

....continue reading this comphrehensive report HERE



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