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Energy & Commodities

Forecast Summary: Commodities, Forex and Stocks

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Posted by Ken Ticehurst

on Tuesday, 04 October 2016 06:49

We continue to forecast a drop in the commodities complex over the next few months with the possibility of some important lows next year. WTI is still putting in a top, the dead cat bounce that has lasted throughout this year is running out of steam and we should see the push for lower lows over the next couple of months and in to 2017.

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We continue to forecast a period of Dollar and Yen strength over the next few months which will have an impact on many of the markets we forecast. The Dollar will continue to advance against Sterling, we are forecasting the Pound to be the weakest of the major currencies going forward.

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We are forecasting a correction in global stocks over the next six months, we think the SPX along with most of the major indices has either put in a top or is in the process of topping out. This fits in well with our commodity and forex forecasts.

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We are currenly expecting a new down leg in commodities, a stronger Dollar and an even stronger Yen during the fourth quarter of this year. we anticipate these dynamics will create the conditions for some key markets to sell off for a period which will relieve some over bought conditions necessary for a healthy market.

Taking patterns in nature that repeat over different time frames like fractals as the basis for the forecast methodology, our forecast patterns can last for months and years, we create a most probable long term fractal pattern and then continually test it and model it over multiple time frames to ensure the pattern remains a probable event.

You can follow our short term forecasts on our web site

...related:

Not Even An OPEC Deal Will Stop Oil Going Lower, Goldman Warns



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Energy & Commodities

How Long Will OPEC Hot Air Continue To Fuel Oil Prices

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Friday, 30 September 2016 07:18

Nick2909OPEC shocked the oil markets on Wednesday, moving past their differences to agree on the first collective production cut since the global financial crisis. The surprise agreement sent oil prices skyrocketing by more than 6 percent.

The announcement had such a strong impact on oil prices precisely because a production cut was not thought to be under consideration. The meeting had been billed as “consultative,” that is, not a meeting where decisions would be made. OPEC officials also said that the deal that was on the table was just for an output “freeze,” not a cut. If OPEC wanted to signal to the world that it could still function as a group and was still relevant to the oil markets, it succeeded.

....continue reading HERE

...related:

Did OPEC Just Spoof The Shorts?



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Energy & Commodities

Did OPEC Just Spoof The Shorts?

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Posted by Andrew Hecht - Technomentals

on Thursday, 29 September 2016 07:19

UnknownSummary

A shocker out of Algeria.

The initial deal.

No one expected it and shorts got caught.

A date in Vienna at the end of November.

At $50 North American output will flow -- The Fed Of Oil?

The Algerian adventure turned into the North African Shocker for the oil market. Almost no one, myself included, thought that the meeting between OPEC members and the Russians would be able to come up with anything other than pleasantries and another disappointment when it comes to supporting the price of petroleum. However, the jury is still out, and there is plenty of time for a letdown until the official biannual meeting of the cartel at the end of November.

....continue reading HERE



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Energy & Commodities

Not Even An OPEC Deal Will Stop Oil Going Lower, Goldman Warns

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Wednesday, 28 September 2016 07:38

opec dilemma 0Having been bullish for nearly half a year, yesterday Goldman's flipped again, when it cut its Q4 oil price target from $50 to $43, admitting the previously anticipated rebalancing will take longer to achieve, and now expects "a global surplus of 400 kb/d in 4Q16 vs. a 300 kb/d draw previously." Moments ago, the same Goldman analyst released a follow up note, confirming what we have been saying for the past year, namely that OPEC is increasingly irrelevant as a marginal supply-setter in a world in which it is the lack of demand that is a far bigger threat.

...read more HERE

 

...also:

The Case for Natural Resource Equities



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Energy & Commodities

The Case for Natural Resource Equities

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Tuesday, 27 September 2016 10:22

Last week I attended the Denver Gold Forum along with three other U.S. Global Investors representatives, including our resident precious metals expert Ralph Aldis. I was happy to see sentiment for gold way up compared to last year’s convention, as was turnout. I was also pleased to see Franco-Nevada, Silver Wheaton and Royal Gold in attendance, all of which I’ve written extensively about.

One of the most interesting presentations was held by Northern Star Resources—the third biggest listed gold producer in Australia, a dividend payer and a longtime holding of USGI. I’ve always appreciated Northern Star’s insistence on being a business first, a mining company second. This shareholder-friendly mantra is reflected in its stellar performance.

Compared to other companies in the NYSE ARCA Gold Miners Index (GDM), Northern Star is a sector leader in a number of factors, including five-year cash flow return on invested capital. Whereas the sector average is negative 1.6 percent over this period, Northern Star’s is a whopping 27 percent, the most of any other mining company in the GDM.

This has helped it return an amazing 800 percent over the last five years as of September 23. Compare that to the GDM, which returned negative 56 percent over the same period.

Australian gold miners as a whole trade at an impressive discount to North American producers, 5.7 times earnings versus 8.3 times earnings, according to Perth-based Doray Minerals.

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Screening for high cash flow returns on invested capital, as you can see, helps give us a competitive advantage and uncovers hidden gems such as Northern Star and others.

Resource Equities Offer Attractive Diversification Benefits



Read more...

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