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Energy & Commodities

Crude problem for Canada

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Posted by Futures Magazine

on Thursday, 21 December 2017 07:00

The Canadian dollar could be about to take a plunge. Not only did the Bank of Canada recently pour cold water on further rate hike prospects, but there is also the problem of crude oil. The black stuff got sold off today in response to the latest U.S. oil inventories data which showed a big rise in stocks of gasoline. But that’s not even half of the problem. The problem is actually in Canada itself, where crude oil is being sold at a significant discount to the rest of the world. Canada’s benchmark oil, called the Western Canada Select is trading at a $26.50 discount to WTI. That’s almost a 50% discount given the current price of WTI being about $62.50 per barrel. Canada has its oil production concentrated in Alberta and there are no pipelines to ship the oil to the cost. Consequently, nearly all its crude is piped to its only customer – the U.S. – where it is refined into various oil products. But thanks to the shale oil revolution, the US is fast becoming self-sufficient in its energy needs. So it relies increasingly less on crude imports. As a result, a huge glut has been built up in Canada. This could prove very costly for the Canadian economy and therefore its currency.

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....also from Michael Campbell: Paucity of Pipelines Cost Canada $72 Million a Day

AUD/CAD about to stage a significant comeback?



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Energy & Commodities

This Global Index Is Screaming Higher

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Posted by Matt Badiali - The Edelson Institute

on Monday, 18 December 2017 06:52

There is good news for natural resource investors out there. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which is a benchmark of shipping rates around the world, hit a four-year high.

The BDI tracks shipping of grains, oil seeds, coal and iron ore. These are fundamental components of the global economy. So, when the cost to ship those goods goes up, it means the global economy is improving.

And that’s great news for natural resources.

The Global Economy

You can see what I mean in the chart below:

121417 2024 ThisGlobalI1

The BDI hit its highest point since 2014 on a strong move up since July 2017.



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Energy & Commodities

WORLD SILVER PRODUCTION: 3 Charts You Won’t See Anywhere Else

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSRocco Report

on Monday, 18 December 2017 06:38

The rate at which global silver production increased over the past century is quite astonishing.  When Columbus arrived in America (1492), the world was only producing 7 million oz of silver a year.  Today, the world’s largest primary silver mine, Fresnillo’s Sauicto Mine, produced three times that amount in just one year (22 million oz, 2016).  Yes, we have come along way in 500 years.

Just think about that for a minute.  One silver mine last year produced three times the global amount in 1493.  According to the U.S. Bureau of Mines 1930 Report on Summarized Data of Silver Production, the average annual silver production in the world from 1493 to 1600 was 6.9 million oz (Moz).  If we look at the following chart, we can see how world silver production increased over the past 500+ years:

World-Silver-Production-1493-2017f-Avg-Annual

As we can see, average annual world silver production increased from 6.9 Moz during 1493-1600, to 13 Moz from 1600-1700, 18 Moz from 1700-1800, 51 Moz from 1800-1900, 274 Moz from 1900-2000 and a stunning 722 Moz from 2000-2017.  Again, these figures represent the average annual silver production for each time period.

In the current period, 2000-2017, the world has produced 103 times more silver per year than from 1493-1600.  However, the next chart shows the total silver production for each period.  From 1493-1600, the world produced a total of 747 Moz of silver, compared to 13,000 Moz (13 billion oz) in just 18 years from 2000-2017:



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Energy & Commodities

Get Josef Schachter's Energy Report - SPECIAL OFFER

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Posted by MoneyTalks Administrator

on Friday, 15 December 2017 16:26

Josef Schachter has made and saved MoneyTalks listeners a ton of money in the last four years with incredibly good forecasts on oil and gas prices, and with well timed buy and sell recommendations on energy stocks. Become a subscriber to his Schachter Energy Report and get his latest Action Alerts, including nine brand new recommendations. This service is one of our favourite reads right now.

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Energy & Commodities

Long Term Patterns in Stocks, Gold and Crude

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Posted by Gary Christensen - The Deviant Investor

on Friday, 15 December 2017 06:41

dp

The green arrows are 10 years long. Peaks indicated are in 1987, 2007, and potentially 2017.

The pause in 1997 was not a top because the market rally extended into early 2000. The current peak in 2017 could also extend, but valuation and timing indicators show high risk.

When the monthly RSI (timing indicator at bottom of graph) exceeds 70, turns down, and prices fall below the red support line, a significant correction or crash is possible. Those crashes occurred in 1987, 2000, and 2008. The S&P is ready to make a similar correction or crash in 2017 or 2018. The RSI has reached its highest level in two decades.

The S&P 500 Index, DOW, NASDAQ, DAX and many other indices are excessively high, thanks to central bank “stimulus” and QE policies. The monthly chart of the S&P shows S&P prices are in a high risk danger zone.

Possible tops have occurred before, but instead of crashing, the market sometimes zoomed higher. Do you own due diligence.

Also, read “Hindenburg Omen Meets Titanic Syndrome.” However, if you want to believe the S&P is going higher, read “Stock Market Crash … Another Lie.”

The Gold Market and its 10 year pattern



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