Energy & Commodities

"Jobs Report Week: Gold Stays Firm"

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 09:57

Jan 31, 2017

  1.      As I have noted for many years, gold has a rough general tendency to decline ahead of the US jobs report, and then rally in the hours and/or days following the release of the report.
  2.      The next monthly jobs report will be released at 8:30AM on Friday. This report and the closure of the Chinese gold market for the New Year’s holiday should be quite negative for gold, but… 
  3.      The sell-off from the $1220 area is orderly, and gold feels firm.
  4.      Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.  Gold did break down from a small double top pattern.  
  5.      The price target of the pattern is $1170, but there may be an uptrend channel forming. I’ve highlighted that in blue.
  6.      Also, the lead line of the 14,7,7 Stochastics series oscillator that I use exclusively on daily bar and candlestick charts is now sitting at about 50, where momentum-based rallies can occur.
  7.      With China offline and the jobs report dead ahead, why is gold acting so firmly? Well, please click here now. Double-click to enlarge.  The US dollar looks very weak on this daily bars chart against the Swiss Franc.
  8.      It’s broken down from a head and shoulders top pattern, and has not rallied since arriving at technical support yesterday. 
  9.      The rally could still happen, and that would likely push gold down to $1170 ahead of the jobs report. 
  10.      Given that gold has rallied from $1125 to $1220, a decline to $1170 is perfectly normal. An orderly decline like this should not make gold investors nervous.
  11.      Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this dollar versus yen chart.  
  12.      All gold community eyes should be focused on the 112.50 price level. A breakdown below that level would almost certainly usher in a gold price rally to my $1250 target zone.
  13.      The Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, and gold bullion are all viewed as key “risk off” assets by bank FOREX traders. 
  14.      It’s clear that the dollar is struggling now against both the franc and the yen. 
  15.      Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this weekly bars euro versus the dollar chart.
  16.      The euro never rallied against the dollar in 2016 in the way that the franc, yen, and gold did. 
  17.      That’s partly because Europe’s economic recovery has been more anemic than America’s, but mainly because euro is not viewed as a safe haven currency by the large bank traders.
  18.      Having said that, most gold price discovery takes place in US dollars, and a rally in the euro could add some zest to the gold price!
  19.      The recovery taking place in Europe now could be enough to reverse the ECB’s policies of QE and low interest rates. 
  20.      That would create both European inflation and a euro rally.
  21.      Please click here now. Double-click to enlarge this daily bars GDX chart.
  22.      Gold stocks are performing exceptionally well since gold ran into resistance at my $1220 target zone. 
  23.      Can GDX rally to $25 if gold falls to $1170? I think that’s asking a bit much (for now), but GDX should easily rally to $25 if gold can climb back to $1220.
  24.      A rally to $1250 would likely see GDX surge to $28, and a bigger move to $1650 for gold should see GDX make a new all-time high. That’s a bit further down the road, but eager gold stock investors should ensure they are building a solid block of core positions now, to partake in all the upside fun!



Energy & Commodities

Basic Materials : Real Stuff is Rising

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Posted by Rambus Chartology

on Friday, 27 January 2017 06:06

Tonight I would like to update the Basic Materials sector as this area now looks like it’s ready to resume its bull market. Also with the stock markets breaking out today, especially the INDU, this adds another layer of confirmation that the breakout is the real deal. As we’ve discussed previously there are many big cap Dow stocks that make up the XLB, Basic Materials fund, and with the INDU making a new all time high today there will be some individual components making new all time highs as well.

Lets start by looking at a weekly chart for the XLB, Basic Materials fund, that is breaking out of a bullish rising flag this week. This bull flag has been building out since last spring and now the price action is trading into new all time highs. There was a conventional  bull flag that formed between 2015 and 2016 that sloped down. 

That down sloping black flag started to form after the 7 point bearish rising wedge completed.



...continue reading HERE


Energy & Commodities

It Might Be Time to Grab the Commodities Bull by the Horns

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 26 January 2017 08:24


Commodity investors have had to endure a dry spell for a while now, but those days are starting to look as if they might be behind us. We see encouraging signs that a bottom has been reached and a new commodities super-cycle has begun, as global manufacturing expansion and inflation are finally gathering steam following the financial crisis more than eight years ago.

As a group, commodities had their first positive year since 2010, ending 2016 up more than 11 percent, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

commodities end positively for the first time in six years
click to enlarge

A large percentage of this growth occurred in the days following the U.S. election, suggesting the reflation trade is officially in motion, which should be supported in the coming weeks and months by President Donald Trump’s pro-growth policies.

Just this week, Trump signed executive orders to proceed with the controversial Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines, emphasizing that the steel to be used in their construction will be American-made. Following the announcement, stock in energy infrastructure company TransCanada, which is expected to resubmit plans for the pipeline after it was rejected by the Obama administration, immediately hit a new high, while shares of several steel companies traded up.

Between Election Day and Inauguration Day, the commodities index rose 5.4 percent, with double-digit growth in crude oil (up 17.1 percent), copper (10.5 percent) and iron ore (17.7 percent).



Energy & Commodities

The Top 10 Reasons Investors Should Look at Cobalt

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Posted by Visual Capitalist

on Monday, 23 January 2017 14:00

Screen Shot 2017-01-23 at 12.43.16 PM

Every once in a while a previously underappreciated metal rises to prominence.

It may be cobalt's time to be that metal.

Cobalt is powering the green economy, and by 2020, 75% of all li-ion batteries will have cobalt in them.

....continue reading & viewing HERE

....also from Visual Capitalist:

Black Swans: 9 Recent Events That Changed Finance Forever


Energy & Commodities

Divergence Between Oil and Oil Stocks Signals Decline in Oil-Related ETF's

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Posted by Jack Chan via Streetwise Reports

on Friday, 20 January 2017 09:35

Technical analyst Jack Chan reports the energy sector cycle is down and a multiweek correction is in progress, and discusses what that means.


Our proprietary energy cycle indicator turned down last week from the divergence as noted previously



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