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Greyerz – This Will Come As A Massive Shock To People

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Posted by Egon von Greyerz via King World News

on Monday, 01 May 2017 07:43

KWN-Greyerz-I-4302017-1024x664

As we get ready to kickoff what promises to be a wild week of trading, today the man who has become legendary for his predictions on QE, historic moves in currencies, spoke with King World News about what is going to come as a massive shock to people.

“This Is The New Normal!”

Egon von Greyerz:  “This is the new normal”! That is what a professional advisor stated at a recent family office in London after I had outlined the risks due to the credit and asset bubbles. This is what is so frightening about any top in such an extreme economic cycle. Peak optimism and peak asset prices go hand in hand. I did not experience the 1929 crash or the depression, but a few quotes from that remarkable period of time expresses the typical euphoria at a market peak

...continue reading HERE



Energy & Commodities

Future World Economic Growth In Big Trouble As Oil Discoveries Fall To Historic Lows

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Monday, 01 May 2017 07:28

Future global economic growth is in serious trouble as oil discoveries fell to historic lows last year.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the sharp downturn in capital spending by the conventional oil sector was due to extremely low oil prices.

As the oil price fell to $30 in 2016, oil companies cut their exploration and capital expenditures by 25-40%.  For example, ExxonMobil, the largest oil company in the United States, cut their capital expenditures by 26% in 2016, from $26 billion in 2015 to $16 billion last year.  This had a profound impact on new oil discoveries.

According to the IEA report:

Oil discoveries declined to 2.4 billion barrels in 2016, compared with an average of 9 billion barrels per year over the past 15 years. Meanwhile, the volume of conventional resources sanctioned for development last year fell to 4.7 billion barrels, 30% lower than the previous year as the number of projects that received a final investment decision dropped to the lowest level since the 1940s.

By taking the IEA’s oil discovery data and comparing it to the total amount of conventional oil consumed by the world in 2016, here is the following chart:

Global-Oil-Consumption-2016-vs-Discoveries-768x550

The world consumed 69 million barrels per day of conventional oil last year, which equaled a total of 25 billion barrels (source: IEA report above).  Which means, conventional global oil discoveries of 2.4 billion barrels were less than 10% of total world conventional oil consumption.  This is extremely bad news.

To understand the breakdown in the different oil types, the IEA provided the following data:



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Energy & Commodities

Trump Considers Executive Order Withdrawing From NAFTA: Majorly Stupid

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Posted by Mike "Mish" Shedlock - Global Economic Trend Analysisomic Trend Analysis

on Thursday, 27 April 2017 05:07

"It's been very, very bad for our companies and for our workers, and we're going to make some very big changes or we are going to get rid of NAFTA once and for all," President Donald Trump said in a speech last week.

Today, White House readies order on withdrawing from NAFTA.

The Trump administration is considering an executive order on withdrawing the U.S. from NAFTA, according to two White House officials.

A draft order has been submitted for the final stages of review and could be unveiled late this week or early next week, the officials said. The effort, which still could change in the coming days as more officials weigh in, would indicate the administration's intent to withdraw from the sweeping pact by triggering the timeline set forth in the deal.

Peter Navarro, the head of Trump's National Trade Council, drafted the executive order in close cooperation with White House chief strategist Steve Bannon. The executive order was submitted this week to the staff secretary for the final stages of review, according to one of the White House officials.

The draft executive order could be a hardball negotiating tactic designed to bring Mexico and Canada to the table to renegotiate NAFTA. But once Trump sets the withdrawal process in motion, the prospects for the U.S. pulling out of one of the largest trade deals on the globe become very real.

Some internally see the drafting of the executive order as a win for the "nationalist" faction within the White House led by Bannon, who has been sidelined in recent weeks since he was removed from the National Security Council.

NAFTA Running Out of Time

CNNMoney reports Trump's NAFTA is Already Running Out of Time

President Trump wants a new trade deal with Mexico and Canada soon. But he's running out of time.

Trump has said he wants a deal that benefits US workers, but hasn't said exactly what he wants in a new deal.

If Trump decides to stay in and renegotiate, time isn't on his side.

His trade team, led by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, must trigger a 90-day consultation period before trade talks can begin. At the earliest, talks could start in August.

Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, said "it's completely unrealistic" to get a deal done this year.

"The notion that you're going to have a negotiation that's both fast and productive is just an illusion," Alden added.

It's also worth noting that the original NAFTA agreement, which became law in 1994, took years to put together.

Mexican leaders want negotiations done by early 2018 because Mexico has presidential elections in July of next year. There's no telling whether the next Mexican president will cooperate with Trump on NAFTA.

Very Bad Idea

Killing NAFTA is a terrible idea. I have talked about this before buts here are some pictures of the allegedly "terrible trade deal"

Manufacturing Employment

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Energy & Commodities

The Bullish Case For Oil Is Fading Fast

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Tuesday, 25 April 2017 08:01

a50b6bb29f9cd0a3f978ef8d037588e2Oil prices took another dip on Monday, and with WTI down to $49 per barrel, crude oil has given up most of the gains that it had made so far this month, taking prices down to their lowest levels since late March.

Major investors are also losing a bit of confidence in oil’s comeback. Hedge funds and other money managers took a breather in the buildup, buying up long positions in the most recent week for which data is available. Much of the rally in oil prices between the end of March and mid-April occurred as investors closed out short positions and took on bullish bets. Since then, however, hedge funds have slowed their net-long builds, a sign of waning confidence in higher oil prices.

Also, the futures market no longer looks all that encouraging.

...continue reading HERE

...related:

Plungers Big Trade- Part III The Oil Short



Energy & Commodities

Global Silver Mining Industry Productivity Falls To The Lowest In History

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Posted by Steve St. Angelo - SRSrocco Report

on Tuesday, 25 April 2017 07:19

After the Primary Silver Mining Industry enjoyed a brief increase in productivity over the past two years, it fell to the lowest ever in 2016.  The reason the primary silver mining industry’saverage yield increased in 2014 was due to the addition of Tahoe Resources high-grade Escobal Silver Mine.

Tahoe’s Escobal Silver Mine’s average yield in 2014 was an astonishing 16.3 ounce per ton (oz/t).  Not only did Escobal Mine enjoy one the highest silver yields in the world, it produced over 20 million oz (Moz) in 2014.  Thus, the addition of Tahoe to the Top Silver Miners pushed their average yield to 7.8 oz/t in 2014 versus 7.6 oz/t in 2013:

Top-7-Silver-Companies-Production-Average-Yield



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