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Energy & Commodities

Why Commodities Could Be on the Verge of a Massive Surge

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Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 09 March 2017 08:14

After finishing 2016 up 25 percent, commodities are getting another boost from bullish investors. Investment bank Citigroup forecasts commodity prices will increase this year on strengthening demand in China and mounting inflation inspired by President Donald Trump’s “America First” policies. Commodity assets under management globally stood at $391 billion in January, up 50 percent from the same time the previous year, according to Citigroup.

CityNasdaqBoard

Meanwhile, hedge fund managers significantly raised their bets that copper and oil prices have much further to climb, Bloomberg reported, with net-long positions in the Comex and Nymex markets surging to all-time highs.

Bets on Rising Crude Oil and Copper Prices Surged to Record Highs
click to enlarge

In addition, global manufacturing activity has expanded for the past six straight months, a good sign for commodities demand going forward. As I shared with you earlier in the week, the global purchasing managers’ index (PMI) advanced to a 69-month high of 52.9 in February, with strong showings from the U.S. and eurozone.



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Energy & Commodities

Investors Are Becoming Bullish on Commodities

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Posted by Streetwise Reports

on Wednesday, 08 March 2017 12:59

BullBearUpChart580Dow Jones reported that the S&P GSCI Index, a measure of commodity futures, was up 28% last year: "many commodities have continued to rally this year. Oil and natural-gas prices have soared more than 50% over the past 12 months. Precious metals like silver and materials like lumber have scored big gains in recent weeks."

Citigroup noted, according to Dow Jones, that "commodity assets under management globally rose 7% in January from the previous month to $391 billion, up more than 50% compared with the previous year."

"The Materials Price Index, which tracks oil, metals, lumber and other commodities, closed higher for a record 17 straight weeks before finally falling in the last week of February," Dow Jones reported.

Investors are becoming more bullish on economic growth, hoping that President Donald Trump's $1 trillion infrastructure pledge will come to fruition.

Bloomberg reported that deal-making is starting to pick up in the metals arena: "Transactions announced in the first two months of the year climbed 41 percent to $7.6 billion from a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That's the best start to a year since 2013, before gold and copper entered bear markets. Premiums for the deals announced in February averaged 33 percent, the highest since August, data show."

"Investors poured about $4.9 billion into exchange-traded funds that track materials companies in the three months through March 3, beating funds linked to technology firms, according to data compiled by Bloomberg."

Gold, silver, platinum and palladium futures are up at least 7% this year, Bloomberg noted.

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Energy & Commodities

Is A Second OPEC Cut On The Cards?

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Wednesday, 08 March 2017 08:11

8ef58d61d17d7426e7c005994381cb80OPEC's coordinated effort to curtail global supply has so far managed to put a floor under oil prices, which have been sitting modestly above US$50 since the deal was announced at the end of November last year. But resurging U.S. shale has been capping the upside, and Brent has not breached US$58 per barrel. Analysts and experts are now mostly predicting that oil prices will remain below US$60 this year.

The supply-cut deal has so far resulted in a surprisingly high OPEC compliance of more than 90 percent, thanks to the cartel's leader and biggest producer, Saudi Arabia, which has been cutting deeper than pledged. But the market has already priced in this high compliance, and although oil prices jump for a few hours on every report of 'extraordinary efforts' and reassurance that members will strive for 'full conformity', they are stuck in a narrow band, kept in check by U.S. shale and record high inventories in America.



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Energy & Commodities

The Chartology of the Commodities: The Inflation/ Deflation Barometer

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Posted by Rambus Chartology

on Tuesday, 07 March 2017 07:36

One of the biggest questions investors have is what type of environment are stocks and the economy in, deflation or inflation? Knowing the answer to that question can give you a heads up on what different sectors to invest in and what sectors to stay away from. Tonight I would like to update some of the different commodities indexes to see if they can give us any clues on which way the deflationary or inflationary pendulum is swinging.  Commodities are often an under analysed asset class as compared to Stocks and Bonds. However they are the nuts and bolts , the real stuff  supporting human existence.

Lets start with one of the oldest commodities indexes around the $CRB index. After the huge impulse move down that began in the middle of 2014, the CRB index finally bottomed in early 2016, putting in a small double bottom which was going to be part of a bigger inverse H&S bottom. After breaking out above NL1 the CRB index then rallied higher stalling out below the 2016 high and began to decline once more. That decline found support at the neckline symmetry line which was a good place to look for a low for the right shoulder of a much bigger double H&S bottom. After trading below NL2 for six months the price action finally broke above it with just a small rally.

From a Chartology perspective nothing is broken yet on the double H&S bottom, but the price action has been very laborious since the December low of last year. Again, nothing is broken, but I see a yellow flag waving that is signaling caution in regards to the double H&S bottom, which we’ll look at in more detail on the next chart to follow this one.

crb-day-1-768x985

 

....continue reading this extensive report HERE



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Energy & Commodities

Time To Pick Up Some Natural Gas Production

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Posted by Andrew Hecht via Seeking Alphaia Seeking Alpha

on Monday, 06 March 2017 06:26

Natural-GasSummary

Natural gas repeats its February 2016 performance.

Liquefied NG is the future for the industry.

LNG a buy.

APA and DVN are scale-down buys.

UNG is another way to play natural gas for the months ahead.

Natural gas has seen lots of volatility over past months and speculative interest is at the highest level in years. With the price of the energy commodity falling, it is possible that some real future opportunities are currently available in the natural gas market for those brave enough to become a contrarian or buy certain assets during the current selloff.

....read more HERE



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