Energy & Commodities

These New Numbers Suggest A Big Year Coming In This Oil Sub-Sector

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Posted by Pierce Points

on Friday, 13 January 2017 08:09

Here's one of the most important charts we might see in oil and gas this year. New this week from industry watchdog Wood Mackenzie -- showing how many offshore petroleum projects will likely see final investment decisions (FIDs) during 2017.


Wood Mackenzie sees a major surge coming this year in investment decisions on offshore oil and gas projects

There are a few important things to note here. First, approvals of new petroleum projects were running strong between 2007 and 2014 -- with the blue bar on the left showing how FIDs during this period averaged 40 projects per year.



Energy & Commodities

Gold’s fate as Western society cracks apart …

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 11 January 2017 08:24

Screen Shot 2017-01-11 at 7.12.25 AMLarry here, with an important message. Right now, gold is still caught in a trading range, but with a long-term bias toward exploding higher over the next few years to at least $5,000 an ounce.

In other words, gold is in the pressure-cooker right now, and once it blasts off, there may be no turning back.

I have another important warning for you: If you think gold’s next major move higher will be due to inflation, think again: Gold’s next leg higher will be primarily caused by Western society tearing itself apart at the seams.

Not because of inflation. Not because of a collapse in the U.S. dollar, which one well-known — but almost always wrong — analyst keeps predicting.

Just consider all the spying that’s going on which has increased, not decreased. If you haven’t already, go see the excellent documentary “Snowden.”

Where you’ll learn of how our government has a dragnet and has intruded into the privacy of not just every American citizen via electronic devices, but every individual in the world via computers and cell phones. And yes, even heads of state.

Or the moves by many developed countries to go to a digital currency. Or the many countries that are now implementing various capital controls.

Or the high-level cyber-espionage now happening.

Or, Obamacare, a disaster of epic proportions.

Then there are the new moves, behind closed doors in Washington, to make depositors in U.S. banks creditors of the bank, meaning if the bank goes under, a certain amount of your deposits is at risk of substantial loss, as if you were a shareholder in the bank.



Energy & Commodities

Your Price Forecast for Next Year's Best-Performing Energy Source

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Posted by Money Morning

on Tuesday, 10 January 2017 07:07

natural-gas-3104Despite a small decline yesterday, the U.S. Henry Hub natural gas benchmark rate is now up 36.7% for the month.

At close yesterday, the price was $3.61 per 1,000 cubic feet or million BTUs (British Thermal Units), the standard measurement in the U.S.

To put that in some perspective, the price was $1.96 as recently as May 26, and the year-to-date low was $1.65 on March 3. Meanwhile, the $3.65 level reached at close on Monday, December 5 was the highest in two years.

Traditionally, the price for natural gas in the U.S. has been heavily by the seasons, with the severity of winters generally being the main determinant of how high prices would go.

But that’s no longer the case…

With demand for natural gas coming from many new sources, the price is no longer tied to the weather – setting prices up to go higher.

Here’s exactly how high the price of natural gas will go in 2017…



Energy & Commodities

Agri-Equities and Agri-Food Prices: Both Strong

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Posted by Ned W. Schmidt

on Monday, 09 January 2017 09:20

When has food been more valuable than technology? Aside from all of history, that was especially true in 2016. Chart below is our Investment Scoreboard for 2016. In it are portrayed the returns for a variety of important market measures. Gold stocks, Silver, oil, and Agri-Equities clearly owned the year. Agri-Equities, number four in chart, substantially outperformed most of the equity markets. In 2016 food was clearly more valuable than those tired, old, over owned technology and internet stocks as indicated by the NASDAQ 100 being far down in the list.

43419 a

....read more HERE

....related: Chart: How Every Commodity Performed in 2016


Energy & Commodities

Chart: How Every Commodity Performed in 2016

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Posted by Visual Capitalist

on Friday, 06 January 2017 06:57


2016 Commodity Performance

It was an up and down year for commodities, but things ultimately finished in the black.

The S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) climbed 10.1% on the year – it was just enough to edge out the S&P 500, which ended 2016 with a 9.5% return.

Winners in 2016

The biggest winners on the year were base metals and the oil and gas sector.

Here’s how base metals did:

Base MetalQ1Q2Q3Q42016
Iron Ore 37.0% -6.2% 6.3% 31.1% 81.0%
Zinc 20.0% 13.1% -3.2% 26.1% 65.7%
Nickel -3.1% 13.9% 11.9% -5.0% 17.3%
Aluminum 3.8% 7.2% 1.4% 4.0% 17.3%
Copper 0.1% 3.9% -0.5% 13.1% 17.1%

Iron ore and zinc were the best performing commodities on the face of the planet in 2016. Iron finished up 81%, its first calendar gain in four years. Meanwhile, zinc shot up 65.7% on the year as major zinc mines shut down, and supply stockpiles dwindled.

Oil and gas also posted a major comeback in 2016:

Natural gas -17.0% 53.3% -2.7% 28.0% 58.5%
Oil (Brent) 0.6% 35.1% -1.2% 13.6% 52.4%
Oil (WTI) -3.2% 37.3% -2.1% 11.4% 44.9%

It was a volatile year overall, but it appears that the worst of the downturn in energy prices is over.

Losers in 2016

Not all energy-related commodities could be so lucky. 

Uranium continued its epic nosedive, losing -41.6% on the year. U3O8 now trades for $20.25/lb, a tiny fraction of its previous highs of over $100/lb in 2007.

Energy LosersQ1Q2Q3Q42016
Uranium -16.0% -7.4% -12.0% -14.7% -41.6%
Coal 0.5% -9.3% 1.3% 0.0% -7.7%

Coal has also performed abysmally, at least in North America where CAPP prices finished down on the year -7.7%. We previously showed the decline of coal in three charts, and it seems that coal will likely continue to be an unpopular choice for utility companies in the U.S. and Canada. 

That said, it is worth mentioning that Australian coal prices went bonkers earlier this year due to a Chinese administrative oversight.

Courtesy of: Visual Capitalist


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