Energy & Commodities

Byron Wien Speaks To The Smartest Man In Europe - A Must Read

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Posted by Byron Wien via Business Insider

on Wednesday, 04 July 2012 07:39

Blackstone's Byron Wien is up with a new blog post, wherein he relays a conversation he had with someone he only refers to as The Smartest Man In EuropeBusiness Insider Say's what he has to say is Terrifying

Wien doesn't say who The Smartest Man In Europe is, but describes him as basically an incredibly brilliant, wordly, rich businessman.

So what does TSMIE see now? 

Basically that massive amounts of debt will bring the decline of Western Civilization, but that in the meantime, before that happens, policy makers would pull every trick they could in order to stave off a catastrophic event. 

After getting to the point where fiscal stimulus no long works, the world's central banks will go into overdrive (as is already happening)

Be sure to read "“So what am I doing with my money?", his conclusion in the second last paragraph HERE



Energy & Commodities

Big Profits Dead Ahead: $115 oil by the year end says T.Boone Pickens

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Posted by T. Boone Pickens via Bloomberg

on Tuesday, 03 July 2012 00:00

One of the most famous oil price forecasters BP Capital’s T. Boone Pickens talks about the prices for natural gas and oil. He speaks with Trish Regan on Bloomberg Television’s ‘Street Smart.’

For Mr Pickens sub-$100 oil prices for Brent Crude marked the bottom of the sell-off and the only way is up, though he sees the US president manipulating the WTI price with the release of strategic reserves this autumn. Brent Crude is broadly the price the Middle East earns from exports.

oildrummoney 0


Energy & Commodities

Dr. Copper says watch out below

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Posted by A Sober Look

on Sunday, 01 July 2012 06:26

The dislocation between US equities and Brent crude (chart below and discussed there) is by no means unique. A very similar picture is developing between S&P500 and copper. And as with oil, one can blame it on supply fundamentals, but the reality has more to do with a sharp deterioration in global demand as world economies slow.

Miller Tabak : - Traders often refer to the red metal as Dr. Copper because it is the only one that has a PhD in economics, and tends to be a great leading indicator of economic conditions. If you follow that thesis, and go by recent trends, Copper could be telling an ugly story for equities. 
Copper first bottomed in December 2008, while the S&P waited until March 2009. In 2010, Copper made its low for the year in June, vs. July for the S&P. The 2011 peak in Copper was February, vs. May for the S&P. 2012 is almost identical to last year, with Copper again topping out in Feb., while the S&P made its high in March. There are no guarantees that Copper will make a new low for the year, and even if it does that equities will follow, but it certainly bears watching given the historical significance of the relationship.
Copper vs SP500
The dislocation between US equities and Brent crude (discussed here)
US crude stocks
....more articles at Sober Look


Energy & Commodities

Crude Oil's Bearish Reversal: Will It Last?

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Posted by Nico Isaac via Elliottwave.com

on Friday, 29 June 2012 11:56

How EWI’s Energy Specialty Service used objective analysis to anticipate the May turnaround in crude oil

One of the biggest flaws of mainstream financial analysis is that it baits traders with a specific fundamental “hook.” And once snared, they are forced to go wherever the reel draws them in, powerless to resist.

If prices should go the other way (as they often do) the trader is caught while the experts get off scot-free with choice phrasing like “prices fall DESPITE bullish supply data,” OR “prices BRUSH OFF bearish jobs report.”
The Wave Principle, on the other hand, is founded on a number of key rules and guidelines that enable you to adjust your Elliott wave counts as price action sees fit. With this solid framework in place, Elliott wave analysts approach a market able to determine these (and more) criteria:


  • Fibonacci-calculated price support and resistance levels on a chart
  • The likely length of developing waves in relation to other waves
  • And, whether the trend at hand is impulsive or corrective-- as in, here to stay or not.

Below here is the top of the Completed Elliottwave Move in the Oil Bull Move at the top in 2008

Here is how it has unfolded since the top as seen on this Monthly Oil Chart which is fairly clear to see that it is in a corrective mode since the top in 2008

Picture 1

Let’s turn to a real-world example with the recent price action in crude oil. See, on May 2, both the mainstream experts AND EWI’s Energy Specialty Service were near-term bullish on crude oil. Herein, however, lies the difference:

eliottWaves oil_body_crude-1


  • The fundamental camp presents its case with this May 2 news story: “Crude oil futures start May by bouncing to a five-week high as US manufacturing growth in April hit the highest in 10 months, boosting the demand outlook for oil.”


In this case, there is no wiggle room to prepare for an alternate (i.e. bearish) outcome. This would be fine IF market analysis was about 100% certainties. But, as Elliott analysts know, it’s aboutprobabilities.


  • That same day, May 2, EWI’s Energy Specialty Service revealed how its “preferred” bullish Elliott wave count for crude oil hinged on this crucial action: “Crude needs to continue higher to support the idea that the next leg of the advance is underway. At this point, trade below 101.82 won’t bode well for the idea that the decline from the early March peak is done… and an even longer decline would seem likely.”


On May 3, crude oil prices broke the 101.82 price level. The May 3 Energy Specialty Service1:56 pm intraday update confirmed the bearish event and wrote:
“The market’s failure to extend the advance argues for the alternate count… A much deeper decline should lie ahead.”
And again, the May 15 Energy Specialty Service "DAILY" update suggested the bearish trend would not be a temporary and wrote:
"Regardless of the short-term iterations, the key point is that sharply lower lows should be the central theme for some time to come."
It has been "some time" indeed since then. Don’t get caught in a fundamental corner. Stay ahead of the near-term changes in crude oil via EWI’s trader-focused Energy Specialty Service.


Energy & Commodities

Electric Companies Are Shutting Down

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Posted by Nick Hodge- Energy & Captial

on Thursday, 28 June 2012 10:42

Over the next few months, you'll have a front row seat to the turning point in America's energy independence as nearly 85 million businesses and homes have the chance to stop paying their electric bills. - NICK HODGE OF ENERGY & CAPITAL

Ed Note: Its no secret that Solar Energy is spectacularly unprofitable without massive government subsidies. Just take one look at Obama's scandalous taxpayer investment in Solyndra that has now brought the FBI into investigate what happened with Solyndra's,  $535 million government-backed loan with the help of the Obama White House over the agressivee objections of federal budget analysts. In short, without a technological breakthrough, solar just isn't economical withough digging into taxpayers pockets very very deeply.

 Energy & Capital describes a huge technological breakthrough that is right upon us and for those in early the profits with be enormous. Though I remain cautiously sceptical with all of the boondoggles in Green Energy to date, I do think this one is worth a look - Rob Zurrer for Money Talks.

Electric Companies Are Shutting Down

Over the next few months, you'll have a front row seat to the turning point in America's energy independence as nearly 85 million businesses and homes have the chance to stop paying their electric bills.

This is not a revolt, organized political stand, or protest against "the corporations" — far from it, actually...

In the next few months, one of the greatest breakthroughs of the last century will hit the open market.

It will allow virtually every building in America to affordably start generating its own electricity without unsightly turbines or generators. And most importantly, without any government subsidies.

It's all thanks to one publicly-traded tech firm that's rapidly garnering worldwide attention.

Over the past two months alone, this company's share price is up 44% — with near-infinite growth potential.

You don't want to miss another point from this gem, which is why I'm giving you free access to this short presentation.

I want you to be fully informed on the situation and how to take advantage of it, come the next opening bell...

Call it like you see it,

Nick Hodge
Senior Editor, Energy and Capital

Watch the short video HERE or read Transcript HERE

This ‘Absolute Black’ Solar Panels Absorb Almost All Sunlight

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