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Economic Outlook

Damn the Deficits, Huge Tax Cuts Ahead!

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Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Wednesday, 03 May 2017 06:41

640x-1Donald Trump has made good on one of his most audacious campaign promises by submitting what he describes as the biggest tax cut in U.S. History. For once, at least, this does not appear to be Trumpian braggadocio. It really may be the mother of all tax cuts. But if passed, what may this bunker buster do to the economy? While I have rarely met a tax cut I didn’t like, this one just may be more likely to send the economy into a downward spiral than it is to send up to orbit.
 
As I mentioned in my January commentary, Donald Trump’s big-spending, tax-cutting campaign rhetoric threatened to make him the biggest borrower in presidential history. He comes to office at a particularly vulnerable time for budget dynamics. After contracting by nearly two thirds from 2010 to 2015 (from the mind-bending $1.3 trillion to the merely enormous $438 billion), the Federal deficit started expanding again in 2016, moving up to $587 billion (Govt. Publishing Office, Office of Management & Budget (OMB). Current projections have it going up nearly every year over the next two decades. The Congressional Budget Office expects it to permanently surpass $1 trillion annually by 2021 or 2022. But these ominous forecasts were made well before anyone thought Trump had a snowball’s chance of ever becoming president. Now that he is in the office, those projections will be the floor. The ceiling is anyone’s guess.


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Economic Outlook

Why We’re Ungovernable, Part 17: Europe Gets Its Doomsday Scenario

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Thursday, 20 April 2017 06:32

The rise of French far-right presidential candidate Marine Le Pen has made a lot of people nervous since, among many other things, she’s in favor of leaving the eurozone, which would pretty much end the common currency. But since polling has shown her making the two-person run-off round but then losing to a mainstream candidate, the euro-elites haven’t seen any reason to panic. 

Here, for instance, is a chart based on February polling that shows Le Pen getting the most votes in the first round, but then – when mainstream voters coalesce around her opponent – losing by around 60% – 40%. The establishment gets a bit of a scare but remains firmly in power, no harm no foul.

French-poll-Feb-17

 

Then came the past month’s debates in which a previously-overlooked communist candidate named Jean-Luc Mélenchon shook up the major candidates by pointing out how corrupt they all are. Voters liked what they heard and a significant number of them shifted his way. 

Mélenchon: Far-leftist surges in French polls, shocking the frontrunners



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Economic Outlook

When Will They Ever Learn?

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant InvestorInvestor

on Wednesday, 19 April 2017 06:15

dc77ca8b5fb31cb41cd2bbb1145244e8Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Iran, North Korea, Russia, China ……..

In the 1960s Peter, Paul and Mary popularized a song written by Pete Seeger – “Where Have All the Flowers Gone?

The short version is:

Where have all the flowers gone?

Young girls have picked them.

Where have all the young girls gone?

Gone to husbands.

Where have all the husbands gone?

Gone for soldiers.

Where have all the soldiers gone?

Gone to graveyards.

Where have all the graveyards gone?

Gone to flowers.

And repeat. 

When will they ever learn?

Another version of this “cycle of life” is:

Where has all the money gone?



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Economic Outlook

March Jobs Report: 98K New Jobs Added, Worst in Almost a Year

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Friday, 07 April 2017 07:25

This morning's employment report for March showed a 98K increase in total nonfarm payrolls. The unemployment rate ticked downward from 4.7% to 4.5%. The Investing.com consensus was for 180K new jobs and the unemployment rate to remain at 4.7%. January and February nonfarm payrolls were revised downward for a total loss of 38K.

Here is an excerpt from the Employment Situation Summary released this morning by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:

The unemployment rate declined to 4.5 percent in March, and total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 98,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services and in mining, while retail trade lost jobs.

Here is a snapshot of the monthly percent change in Nonfarm Employment since 2000. We've added a 12-month moving average to highlight the long-term trend.

8f4c655f6f5d4cf9295df36195c7b2f8

...continue reading this analysis complete with 8 more charts

...related: 

Recession Alert Weekly Leading Index Update



Economic Outlook

U.S. stocks climb after stellar ADP report

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Posted by MarketWatch

on Wednesday, 05 April 2017 07:03

Screen Shot 2017-04-05 at 6.38.49 AMU.S. stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors shrugged off reports of another North Korean missile launch, focusing instead on a blockbuster reading on private-sector employment. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.29% climbed 7 points, or 0.3%, to 2,368, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.40% advanced 91 points, or 0.5%, to 20,782. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.23% gained 14 points, or 0.2%, to 5,911. Shares of Panera Bread Co. PNRA, +13.60% soared after the fast-casual restaurant chain reached a deal to be acquired by a private holding company for $7.5 billion. Monsanto Co. MON, +0.69% shares rose after the company's latest quarterly results beat profit and sales expectations. U.S. employers added 263,000 private-sector jobs last month, according to payrolls processor ADP Inc., surpassing expectations for an increase of 170,000.



Economic Outlook

March Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000

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Posted by Doug Short - Advisor Perspectives

on Thursday, 30 March 2017 08:19

01-consumer-board-consumer-confidence-recessionsThe latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through March 16. The headline number of 125.6 was a sharp increase from the final reading of 116.1 for February, an upward revision from 114.8. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 114.0.

...read ore from Doug Short HERE



Economic Outlook

Protests from USA to Russia

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 28 March 2017 07:42

California-Trump-Supporter-hit-by-Obama-Supporter-March-2017-768x418Civil Unrest is rising around the world. In the USA, demonstrations have been organized to support Donald Trump in a counter-demonstration move against the Obama/Soros uprising. In Los Angeles, Trump supporters were confronted by opponents of Trump and the two groups ended in violence. The Obama/Soros supporters were partially traditionally masked.

The Trump supporters were trying to organize marches in about 40 US cities for Sunday. However, many cities were denying the Trump supporters the right to even assemble. In Philadelphia, the police stopped such an event they alleged for safety, as the news page Philly.com reported.

....continue reading HERE

...also from Martin:

ECB under Pressure to Reverse Direction



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