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Economic Outlook

U.S. stocks climb after stellar ADP report

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Posted by MarketWatch

on Wednesday, 05 April 2017 07:03

Screen Shot 2017-04-05 at 6.38.49 AMU.S. stocks opened higher on Wednesday as investors shrugged off reports of another North Korean missile launch, focusing instead on a blockbuster reading on private-sector employment. The S&P 500 SPX, +0.29% climbed 7 points, or 0.3%, to 2,368, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.40% advanced 91 points, or 0.5%, to 20,782. The Nasdaq Composite Index COMP, +0.23% gained 14 points, or 0.2%, to 5,911. Shares of Panera Bread Co. PNRA, +13.60% soared after the fast-casual restaurant chain reached a deal to be acquired by a private holding company for $7.5 billion. Monsanto Co. MON, +0.69% shares rose after the company's latest quarterly results beat profit and sales expectations. U.S. employers added 263,000 private-sector jobs last month, according to payrolls processor ADP Inc., surpassing expectations for an increase of 170,000.



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Economic Outlook

March Consumer Confidence Highest Since 2000

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Posted by Doug Short - Advisor Perspectives

on Thursday, 30 March 2017 08:19

01-consumer-board-consumer-confidence-recessionsThe latest Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index was released this morning based on data collected through March 16. The headline number of 125.6 was a sharp increase from the final reading of 116.1 for February, an upward revision from 114.8. Today's number was above the Investing.com consensus of 114.0.

...read ore from Doug Short HERE



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Economic Outlook

Protests from USA to Russia

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 28 March 2017 07:42

California-Trump-Supporter-hit-by-Obama-Supporter-March-2017-768x418Civil Unrest is rising around the world. In the USA, demonstrations have been organized to support Donald Trump in a counter-demonstration move against the Obama/Soros uprising. In Los Angeles, Trump supporters were confronted by opponents of Trump and the two groups ended in violence. The Obama/Soros supporters were partially traditionally masked.

The Trump supporters were trying to organize marches in about 40 US cities for Sunday. However, many cities were denying the Trump supporters the right to even assemble. In Philadelphia, the police stopped such an event they alleged for safety, as the news page Philly.com reported.

....continue reading HERE

...also from Martin:

ECB under Pressure to Reverse Direction



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Economic Outlook

What’s Collapsing? Socialism or Capitalism?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 22 March 2017 08:31

Socialism-v-Capitalism-600x337QUESTION: Many people argue it is capitalism which is collapsing not socialism. How would your respond?

ANSWER: Those people who say this is a failure of capitalism and not socialism simply are trying to come up with an excuse as to why their dreams are not coming true. Democrats champion the poor and middle class but run to the rich for money. Why would bankers and hedge funds as well as Hollywood support Democrats if they are really hated so much? The answer is rather simple. They can bribe them for loopholes and favors.

....continue reading HERE

...also:


Ponzi-Charles-18821949Why Obamacare is the Biggest Fraud in American History & Was Designed to Be Exactly That!

When we look at the markets and try to ascertain the long-term direction, we must look at politics closely, for this holds the key. First, this is a Private Wave and that means the confidence in government is collapsing. Hence, the question for the direction of stocks, gold, interest rates, and the world economy, all hinges on how fast the perception of government collapsed on a global scale. Both sides of the aisle are corrupt and rotten to the core. Republican or Democrat, they are all in this for what they personally can grab and they are incapable of doing anything right for society because power corrupts.

It was the Democrats who came up with the Social Security scheme and designed it to be exactly as a fraud that anyone in the private sector would do to jail for. They used the Ponzi Scheme model where you take money from one person and pay another so they think they have a profit and more and more people come to invest. Here they would impose a tax upon the younger generation to pay for the older generation while telling people they were paying into a retirement fund. Of course, Congress used the money to fund spending for other things and stuffed the fund with government bonds preventing it from ever investing.

....continue reading HERE

 

 

 



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Economic Outlook

Why I’m not worried about China and Asia

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 15 February 2017 06:45

Screen Shot 2017-02-15 at 6.27.45 AMIf you only read the headlines, it’s easy to believe a trade war could be looming with China and Asia.

In fact, if you believe the rhetoric, you’d take a second look before investing a dime of your hard-earned money in anything related to the region.

But it’s just rhetoric – and misleading rhetoric to boot. Here’s what is really happening …

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was set to be the largest regional trade accord in history.

The TPP would have set new terms for trade and business investment among the United States and 11 other Pacific Rim nations: A wide-ranging group with an annual gross domestic product of nearly $28 trillion, representing roughly 40 percent of global GDP and one-third of world trade.

President Trump didn’t like the deal and thinks a more U.S. friendly deal can be made. So his administration is pushing for bilateral trade agreements between these each of these nations in the future.

In other words, getting rid of TPP wasn’t the end of trade negotiations, it was the beginning. There’s going to be a ton of deals coming down the pike.

And a lot of trade talk in China and Asia is going to go that way: Rhetoric and Trump posturing to begin with, deal making in the end.

Then, there’s tax reform and the possibility of President Trump’s administration implementing a border-adjustment tax. 



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Economic Outlook

Hoisington Quarterly Review and Outlook -- 4Q2016

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Posted by John Mauldin - Outside The Boxn - Outside The Box

on Thursday, 09 February 2017 06:20

LookoutboyLongtime readers of Outside the Box know that I am a fan of Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management. Lacy and his partner, Van Hoisington, produce a quarterly letter that is a must-read for me, as it reliably informs my thinking in a world drowning in conventional economics – economics that seem to continually miss the mark.

It almost goes without saying that Lacy will be speaking at our Strategic Investment Conference again this year, and he’s just one of a long (and still-lengthening) list of top-flight speakers. Learn more and reserve your chair, right here.

Today’s OTB is one of the most important pieces Van and Lacy have written in a long time. They establish that the proposed tax reforms will face enormous headwinds that were not there during previous tax-reform eras, which means that the benefits that Republicans think will accrue are likely to take longer to appear and be less than expected, which will mean that it is going to take more than what is presently proposed to jump-start the economy.

A few readers have asked me whether I am still a deficit hawk. The answer is, “Yes, more than ever,” because total debt has now rendered both monetary and fiscal policy much less effective. Debt, as Lacy and Van clearly show, is an impediment to growth.

There are other issues impeding growth, such as the ten million men between ages 24-64 who are not in the work force, a condition that has been steadily worsening for 40 years. It’s not just a recent phenomenon, but it must be addressed. These are men who have chosen to not participate for one reason or another and are perforce a drain on overall GDP growth.

And let’s not forget that for the last nine years we have seen more businesses close than be created, which has certainly affected GDP.



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Economic Outlook

Consumer Confidence Highest in 12 Years

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Posted by Financial Sense

on Tuesday, 31 January 2017 08:39

The University of Michigan Final Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 98.5, up from the December Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.1.

Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, makes the following comments:

Consumers expressed a higher level of confidence January than any other time in the last dozen years. The post-election surge in confidence was driven by a more optimistic outlook for the economy and job growth during the year ahead as well as more favorable economic prospects over the next five years. Consumers also reported much more positive assessments of their current financial situation due to gains in both incomes and household wealth, and anticipated the most positive outlook for their personal finances in more than a decade. Consumers have become more convinced that the stronger economy would finally prompt the Fed to increase interest rates at a quicker pace, which caused one-in-five consumers to favor borrowing-in-advance of anticipated increases in mortgage rates, the highest level in more than twenty years. Overall, the post-election surge in consumer confidence was based on political promises, and not, as yet, on economic outcomes. Moreover, over the past half century the surveys have never recorded as dominant an impact of partisanship on economic expectations. When the same consumers were re-interviewed from six months ago, the survey recorded extreme swings based on political party affiliation, with Democrats becoming much more pessimistic and Republicans much more optimistic. Such divergences will ultimately converge since consumers hold economic expectations to be useful decision guides, which will require both sides to temper their extreme views. [More...]

See the chart below for a long-term perspective on this widely watched indicator. Recessions and real GDP are included to help us evaluate the correlation between the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and the broader economy.

michigan-consumer-sentiment

 

...read more from FinancialSense.com HERE

...also:

Looking for Yield, Ozzie's Got Some Ideas



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