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Economic Outlook

The World Economy is Closing in Thanks to Merkel

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 13 April 2016 08:11

Mother-Merkel
Merkel-WelcomeSometimes the brain-dead decision of one person can set off a contagion that sweeps the world. Merkel’s open invitation to the Muslim, pretend refugees has been tearing Europe apart. The majority are not even from Syria. European states will raise their borders and require a passport because so many of these Muslim “refugees” are unaccounted for, especially after the Brussels attack.

Ted Cruz had to respond to the rising support for Trump over this immigration issue, as it is also becoming the main focus in Britain. Cruz said Trump cannot block Muslims, so he proposed the politically correct version: all Europeans must get a visa to enter the USA. Now Europe is responding as nations always do and the European Union (EU) is currently considering requiring U.S. citizens and Canadians to apply for visas before visiting the country of their choice, even if it’s for a short vacation. Currently, visitors to the U.S. from Poland, Croatia, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania all need a visa. Romanians and Bulgarians also need visas for Canada. The European Commission claims it is trying to achieve a full visa waiver for all member states, but in reality, this is a standard response to Cruz’s statement that he would introduce legislation to impose a visa requirement on all Europeans. The fear is that the Muslims who are interested in terrorism can get into the USA easily via Europe because of what Merkel has done. So we face the problem of closing borders within the EU because the refugees will spread, and that, unfortunately, becomes only logical. It does not appear to be reversible.



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Economic Outlook

Markets Unprepared for 'Explosive' Economic Growth

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Posted by Financial Sense

on Tuesday, 12 April 2016 06:51

UnknownAt Financial Sense, we don’t pick guests for our podcast based on whether they are bullish or bearish on the market. Really, our goal is to have well-respected and sometimes unique individuals to explain why they are bullish or bearish to better understand their reasoning and assumptions.

So, with that said, we welcome your feedback on Dan Wantrobski’s comments from our Saturday broadcast that the US economy is going to see explosive growth in the future based on the very large Millennial generation, which, as he points out, is slowly working its way toward that key “household formation stage.”

Here’s what he had to say....continue reading HERE

 



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Economic Outlook

ECB Losing Control

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Thursday, 07 April 2016 07:53

Riots-4-7-2016

In Naples, riots against Renzi resulted in clashes between police and demonstrators. On Wednesday, Italy’s government had to address the plight of Italian banks which now seems to be significant as both houses of parliament blessed in a crisis meeting, voted to create a state fund for bad loans from. Resistance to Renzi’s idea was very limited. In Naples there were serious riots against it. In reality, Italy’s government has survived a vote of confidence in this decree involving a bank rescue. The Senate rushed together late on Wednesday afternoon. In the House of Lords, the vote was 171 for the plans, 105 against. This is now all about state guarantees for banks that could collapse under the weight of bad loans and that day is coming rapidly as all the QE efforts of the ECB do nothing to reverse the crisis in banking or the economy. Nonetheless, the House of Representatives had already passed the decree while Prime Minister Matteo Renzi had only a very thin majority in the Senate. The crisis appears to force the measure through demonstrating how bad the banks really are in Italy.

The new plan envisages that banks can bundle their bad loans into new financial products, and then sell them. But who will buy them? On Tuesday it was announced that the government plans to fund the money houses buy the bad loans. The decree also provides for the formation of a holding company to merge the 371 small credit unions. Therefore, it is placing the bad loans outside the banking system. The EU rules for bail-ins are breaking down. Each country is beginning to ignore Brussels and proceed in their own manner demonstrating that the ECB is really losing control.

Meanwhile, the ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet spoke at a conference in Frankfurt on Thursday. Effectively, the message was that the ECB is ready and willing to do “whatever is needed” to return inflation to target. Instead of looking at the current negative interest rate policy, they continue to see the solution to just be more of the same. Obviously, as banks continue to implode in Europe and smart capital flees to the USA, the ECB is incapable to reversing the trend. The cycle will play out and the look very bleak at least into 2018 for Europe.



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Economic Outlook

The Panama Papers - The Hunt For Taxes

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 05 April 2016 12:46

Mossack-Fonseca-logoThis is the biggest document leak in history and it is exposing world leaders and their secretive, offshore financial dealings. Some 11.5 million documents have been leaked from the Panama-based law firm Mossack Fonseca, which has offices in 35 countries. This leak has exposed a trove of confidential financial dealings by the elites and spans to aides of Russian President Vladimir Putin all the way to relatives of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Naturally, the press likes to focus on Putin. There is much more hidden behind the press curtain.

....read more HERE



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Economic Outlook

Q1 Ends With A Bang, What’s Next?

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Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment ReportReport

on Monday, 04 April 2016 09:32

A good bit has happened over the last couple of weeks. The S&P 500 staged a sharp recovery from February closing lows due to repeated Central Bank actions during the month as well as an expected reflex rally fueled by short-covering. On a short term basis, the technical backdrop has improved markedly, but was it enough to change the longer-term trend of the markets from bearish back to bullish. This is the topic we will directly tackle this week.

While allocations have been very conservative since last May, avoiding the ensuing volatile declines last summer and the start of this year, I have repeatedly stated that interventions by Central Banks could nullify the “bear case” in the short-term.  

Let’s start with a short-term (daily) view and update the previous observations.

SP500-MarketUpdate-040116-2

 

....read more HERE



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Economic Outlook

Real Motive Behind Warming Scare

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Posted by Investors Business Daily

on Monday, 04 April 2016 07:18

Screen Shot 2016-04-04 at 7.22.37 AM

It is such a big issue, and so expensive it pays to ask what is it all about, and what effect on the markets and economy can you expect. Starting off with a quote - Money Talks Editor:

In the words of former United Nations climate official Ottmar Edenhofer:

“One has to free oneself from the illusion that international climate policy is environmental policy. This has almost nothing to do with the environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole,” said Edenhofer, who co-chaired the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change working group on Mitigation of Climate Change from 2008 to 2015.

So what is the goal of environmental policy?

“We redistribute de facto the world’s wealth by climate policy,” said Edenhofer.

Another Climate Alarmist Admits Real Motive Behind Warming Scare

Fraud: While the global warming alarmists have done a good job of spreading fright, they haven’t been so good at hiding their real motivation. Yet another one has slipped up and revealed the catalyst driving the climate scare.



Read more...

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Economic Outlook

Canadian Banking Regulators Sound the Alarm

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Posted by Nathan McDonald

on Thursday, 24 March 2016 08:58

UnknownThe shouts of warning are finally starting to come out from official bodies. Since the collapse of the oil and gas market, we have been writing about the fact that we haven't seen the worst yet. 

As I have previously written, Canada and Russia are two countries that have been absolutely devastated by the crashing oil markets. The oil and gas crash has racked the Canadian economy and resulted in massive layoffs in the industry and those that support it. Yet the ripple effect has yet to take full effect and the corresponding regulatory bodies are just starting to take notice. 

The Canadian banking sector, along with the Commodities sector, constitutes a massive part of the Canadian economy. Therefore, it is not surprising to learn that the former is now controlled by the latter and in a major way. 



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