Dr. Faber played a game of Long & Short, where he spelled out his view on central banks, currencies and commodities, among other items. Then, he gave probabilities on a number of possible world events and explained his reasoning.
The U.S. will go into a recession by 2020
A: 100% probability. We are in a lengthy expansion already, far above the average expansion in the 20th century. We have a lot of imbalances, in my view a recession is inevitable. But unlike central banks, I do not regard a recession as negative. It's like the human body, an economy also needs a resting period occasionally to adjust. A recession is not something that has to be avoided at all costs.
The European Union will break up by 2020
A: 80%. Economically, the EU would probably will break up. But it's also a political issue as there may be lot of political obstacles to complete a split from the EU. Some countries like Austria or France would like to split from the EU, but if they could do it in practice is not entirely clear to me.