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Economic Outlook

A Key Sign of Optimism Hits a 17-Year-High

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Posted by Jocelynn Smith

on Thursday, 12 July 2018 07:43

zeon

“Are we there yet?”

That question is nails down the chalkboard for harried parents.

But imagine that query from the lips of Wall Street’s talking heads, pundits and investment experts.

Recently they’ve all pointed at their favorite indicator, economic report or line on a chart as the demarcation for what was or will be the top for this bull market run.

But in the race to be the first — or maybe just the loudest — there’s one overlooked little indicator that tagged a high not seen since 2001.

Yes, that’s back to the late days of the dot-com bubble, when the economy experienced years of amazing growth.

And it shows where we are in this long run higher.


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Economic Outlook

Crash & Burn & the Sixth Wave

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Tuesday, 19 June 2018 07:08

Sixth-WaveECM

Martin Armstrong answers a question on what the timing and nature of the oncoming "Crash & Burn" looks like - R Zurrer for Money Talks

QUESTION: Martin, as all members do, I really do thank you and appreciate you for your knowledge and insight. I am a business owner – Real Water and do approximately $10 million in annual sales right now. As a concerned citizen, I have also run for political office and was elected to the Nevada State Assembly in 2015. With Republican control, our legislature pushed through the largest tax increase in our State’s history in the name of more money for education (I led the opposition against the tax, but failed in preventing it). Of course, our latest school ratings came out and we are still ranked at the bottom – 50th. More government is NOT the solution!

I completely understand we are headed for a financial crash and burn. You have frequently stated that the only reason you are doing what you are doing is for your posterity. Other than personal preparation, extra food, don’t be in bonds, etc., what do you believe is the most beneficial thing we can do to help our country come out of the crash and burn with more freedom and limited government (like our Founders so emphatically intended) as opposed to the other potential of totalitarianism that you frequently warn us about? What is the most effective way to rally the troops so to say to help push our civilization in the proper direction?

To an elevated lifestyle,

ANSWER: The Government always thinks that throwing more money at something make it better. I have NEVER seen where that has EVER corrected any such trend. The problem lies in the total mismanagement. Governments are simply incapable of operating even a bubblegum machine. They completely fail to understand the economy, human nature, or society as a whole. The only way to actually correct such a problem is to privatize. That installs actual management and employees must actually perform. Government unions demand benefits and they negotiate with themselves. This is why the entire socialist agenda is collapsing.

I had a friend who was a postmaster. He had to tell an employee he would be checking on them a day before to ensure they were doing their job. The union made them provide notice so the employee would not actually be caught doing anything. This is how government unions have destroyed themselves and society. This is what we are headed into a crash and burn because governments do not respect the people and assume we are an endless supply of revenue.

All government agencies should be privatized and then the services they provide would actually work. Going to the New Jersey Division of Motor Vehicles was a case study in how not to run a government. The people were nasty, you would wait in line and they would be having a conversation with the next employee about what they would do after work and actually make you wait even 5 minutes while they did this right in front of your face. The attitude was WTF do you want now. Just absolutely nasty and hostile. No supervision and nobody even forces them to actually work. Always a horrible experience – not just one time. Ask a question and you NEVER got a straight or correct answer.

It is a structural management problem. There is no accountability and you can look at any government agency and you will see the same pattern. Increase the budget and there is NEVER any actually change. They cannot improve because there is a lack of management ability.

What does the Crash & Burn look like? It all depends upon how long we have to wait to achieve it. If we get the start of a Crash & Burn in 2021, then there is real hope of a soft-landing. If we are looking at stalling and refusing to change as taxes continue to rise, we will see that last wave of totalitarianism and then what comes AFTER 2032 is a very hard landing. That type of decline historically results in civil war and/or revolution.

All I can offer is what has happened before historically. My personal opinion would be just a guess and that is not what clients want to hear. So the sooner the better and the longer this is stalled the worse it gets.

This hostile attack against Trump is symbolic of the bureaucracy fighting to keep its power. They think if they can get Trump out of office, they will return it back to normal with a career politician. They are seriously wrong for the people voted for Trump because they are fed up with the system as is. This was not a personal popularity contest that Trump won. It is the rising tension of the people. There is not going back. This can only lead to a confrontation between the left and right. Choose where you want to like based upon the political orientation of that area. The area I live in was conservative which voted overwhelmingly for Trump. That is a bit safer than a left area for then they ultimate come after you and see you are the problem why things are not going their way.



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Economic Outlook

Angela Merkel Down for the Count?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Monday, 18 June 2018 08:07

Merkel-ConfusedThere are some saying that Angela Merkel will be overthrown in a matter of weeks and others saying that there is no plot to remove her. Nevertheless, scandal rising in Germany over the refugee crisis keeps brewing behind the curtain. Cyclically, 2018 may be a peak in Merkel’s career despite what people are trying to deny.

Angela Merkel was born in Hamburg, West Germany, on July 17, 1954, and was actually trained as a physicist. She entered politics after the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall. She eventually rose to the position of chairwoman of the Christian Democratic Union party becoming Germany’s first female chancellor. Moreover, Merkel has actually become the best-known politician in Europe whose face is more recognized than anyone else in Europe no less Brussels.

Merkel grew up in a rural area of the German Democratic Republic or East Germany. She studied physics at the University of Leipzig, earning a doctorate in 1978, and later worked as a chemist at the Central Institute for Physical Chemistry, Academy of Sciences from 1978 to 1990. She has obviously not made the connection between physics and the economy for if she just looked at the laws of thermodynamics she would have an epiphany and realize that there MUST be a business cycle.



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Economic Outlook

Trump Suspends Joint "War Games" With South Korea, As China Emerges Big Summit Winner

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Tuesday, 12 June 2018 07:00

tkWhile Trump was quick to take a victory lap after signing a non-binding letter (of intent) with North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un to implement the dunclearization of North Korea, several questions have emerged among which:

 

  • the lack of deal enforcement
  • the lack of verifiability of N.Korea's denuclearization efforts as part of the "Complete, Verifiable, Irreversible  Denuclearization" or CVID protocol
  • the legitimization of North Korea's regime
  • China's role in the process
  • the end of joint military drills with South Korea.

 

While Trump's response to most critics was that the process is just starting and that it will take time to denuclearize, where Trump will see the greatest amount of pushback is on the last bullet point. Speaking in an interview with George Stephanopoulos shortly after the one-on-one with Kim, when asked if there was talk of pulling U.S. troops out of South Korea, Trump said the topic didn't come up, however he said the following:

"We didn't discuss that, no. We're not going to play the war games... I thought they were very provocative. I also they're also very expensive." 

In his press conference after the summit, Trump reiterated that the US would halt joint war games with South Korea, as Pyongyang has agreed to destroy a "major" missile testing site.

“We will be stopping the war games,” Trump said Tuesday during a news conference after four hours of meetings in Singapore with the North Korean leader. He offered no specifics about which exercises would be affected,.

....continue reading HERE



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Economic Outlook

As G-7 Fractures In Canada, Putin Meets Xi In China

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Friday, 08 June 2018 07:58

While President Trump insults his erstwhile foreign partners in a colorful twitter tirade ahead of a G-7 (or rather, G-6+1) summit in Quebec, exposing the very real fragmentation of longtime western partnerships as the US cracks down on unfair foreign trade practices, a productive meeting between China's "Emperor for Life" Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been completely overshadowed, as Bloombergpoints out.

2018.06.07chinarussia

The two leaders held their first meeting this year on Thursday ahead of the June 9 Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting - an eight-member group led by China and Russia - which will be held in the port city of Qingdao.

Screenshot 2018-06-08 07.47.09

But the west is ignoring the burgeoning partnership between the two countries - both permanent members of the UN Security Council - at its own peril. Because Putin and Xi are playing an ever-expanding role in resolving global disputes like, for example, the dispute between the US and North Korea.

....continue reading HERE

 

 

 

 

 

 



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Economic Outlook

Trumponomics Report Card

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Posted by Yahoo Financial

on Tuesday, 01 May 2018 11:28

trumponomics

Yahoo Finance is tracking the performance of the economy under President Donald Trump, compared with six prior presidents going back to Jimmy Carter. We’ve chosen six key economic indicators that directly affect the well-being of ordinary Americans, with data provided by Moody's Analytics... CLICK to see the full report



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Economic Outlook

Trump Plays with Fire on Trade

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Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capitalapital

on Wednesday, 07 March 2018 06:45

Peter Schiff makes the case that probably inspired White House chief economic advisor, former Goldman Sachs president and free trade advocate Gary Cohn to resign from President Donald Trump's administration. Michael Campbell also disagrees with Trump in his passioned comment HERE - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

Trump Plays with Fire on Trade

tariffs-steel-aluminum-860x450 cWith his announcement last week of broad tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, President Trump launched what could be the first salvo of an all-out global trade war. Seemingly itching for a fight, he gleefully tweeted that "Trade wars are good, and easy to win." It seems like Trump thinks the conflict will play out much like Ronald Reagan's 1983 week-long invasion of Grenada rather than the more telling quagmires that unfolded in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. He's wrong.

Apart from overestimating America's bargaining position, Trump and his supporters grossly misunderstand the nature of international trade and how Americans have benefited from a system that has allowed us to continually consume foreign goods on credit. While this "benefit" has also placed a cost on domestic industries, I don't believe that Trump has any idea how a trade war can reduce current American living standards.

As justification for his surprise offensive, Trump likes to highlight how America's gargantuan annual trade deficit (which has



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