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Economic Outlook

Multiple Jobholders Hits Record High, As Full-Time Jobs Tumble

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Friday, 04 November 2016 07:00

While today's headline jobs print was somewhat disappointing, with the Establishment Survey missing the expected print of 173K, rising by 161K, it was offset by upward revisions to previous months. But while the quantitative headline aspect is open to interpretation, the qualitative component of the October jobs print was - just like in the case of September - all too clear: it was ugly, again....continue reading HERE

full time jobs oct 0



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Economic Outlook

US Productivity Prints Consecutive YoY Declines For First Time In 23 Years

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Thursday, 03 November 2016 07:15

After a recession-signalling three straight quarters of decline, Q3 prleminary productivity data showed a huge 3.1% surge QoQ - the biggest jump since Q3 2014. However, the jump was not enough to regain annual gains as year-over-year productivity declined 0.04%. This is the first consecutive annual decline since 1993.

After the longest streak of declines since 1979, US productivity surged in Q3...

20161103 prod 0

...read more HERE



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Economic Outlook

Marc Faber : The U.S. will go into Recession & The European Union will break up by 2020

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Posted by Marc Faber - Gloom Boom & Doom Report

on Monday, 26 September 2016 15:48

Dr. Faber played a game of Long & Short, where he spelled out his view on central banks, currencies and commodities, among other items. Then, he gave probabilities on a number of possible world events and explained his reasoning.

UnknownThe U.S. will go into a recession by 2020
A: 100% probability. We are in a lengthy expansion already, far above the average expansion in the 20th century. We have a lot of imbalances, in my view a recession is inevitable. But unlike central banks, I do not regard a recession as negative. It's like the human body, an economy also needs a resting period occasionally to adjust. A recession is not something that has to be avoided at all costs.

The European Union will break up by 2020 
A: 80%. Economically, the EU would probably will break up. But it's also a political issue as there may be lot of political obstacles to complete a split from the EU. Some countries like Austria or France would like to split from the EU, but if they could do it in practice is not entirely clear to me.

....also: Marc Faber Rings the Alarm Bell, Predicts a 50% Near Term Correction in Stocks



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Economic Outlook

Americans See Current Economic Conditions Worst In 11 Months As Inflation Expectations Plunge

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Posted by ZeroHedge

on Friday, 16 September 2016 10:45

University of Michigan survey results show Current Economic Conditions plunged to 103.5 - the lowest since Oct 2015. The biggest driver of this weakness is tumbling inflation expectations (with 1Y outlook dropping to 2.3% - the lowest since Sept 2010).

20160916 umich1 0

Confidence was unchanged in early September from the August final and barely different from the July reading.

...continue reading HERE

...related:

We Live In Unprecedented Times



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Economic Outlook

Big Policies, Bigger Failures

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Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Friday, 19 August 2016 07:08

schiffEconomics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to "correct" these realities don't work. This is certainly the case with the completely predictable slow-motion train wrecks that are the signature U.S. domestic policy experiments of the last eight years: Obamacare and Federal Reserve stimulus. From the start, I issued countless commentaries on why both would fail spectacularly. The jury has started to come back on Obamacare, and the results are a disaster. And while the verdict on the Fed's policies has yet to arrive in similarly stark terms, I believe that its failure is just as certain.

As I explained in my July 30, 2012 commentary "Justice Roberts is Right: The Plan Won't Work," the central flaw (among many others) in Obamacare is that it incentivizes younger, healthier people to drop out of insurance coverage while encouraging older, sicker people to sign up. The result would be a pool of insurance participants that would guarantee losses for those providing coverage. That's exactly what we are seeing.



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Economic Outlook

US Economy Priced in Gold

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Posted by Gary Christenson - The Deviant Investor

on Wednesday, 08 June 2016 18:43

We all know the debt load in the US economy is horrendous and unsustainable. The US government runs deficits of approximately $1 Trillion per year, even with interest rates at historical lows. Current official national debt exceeds $19 trillion, of which $13.9 trillion is public debt. Unfunded liabilities are much larger. Even a 7% average interest rate would require nearly $1 trillion per year for interest only debt service, thereby increasing national debt even more rapidly.

national debt 50 years



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Economic Outlook

The Current Humungous Depression

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Posted by The Burning Platform

on Friday, 20 May 2016 07:25

Bowery-Bread-LineWe are not in a recession. We are in a depression, and have been since the turn of the century.

"If one dates the beginning of a depression from the beginning of the unsustainable expansion of debt that preceded it, then the current depression began in 1987."

"Governments and central banks turn recessions into depressions, which are preceded by unsustainable expansions of debt untethered from the real economy."

"Economic depressions unfold slowly, which obscures their analysis, although they are simple to understand.

...read the entire article HERE

 

related: Greenspan: Monetary policy has done everything it can

 

 



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