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Economic Outlook

Faber: Decoupling between Economic activity and Asset Markets

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Posted by Marc Faber: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

on Thursday, 26 March 2015 07:21

ET Now: Do you think financial markets are very naive in the way they are reacting? The world is fighting for deflation, but despite a global growth scare, most of the major markets are sitting at a record high, be it DAX, the Nikkei or the NASDAQ.

UnknownMarc Faber : Yes. There is decoupling between economic activity and asset markets. If you look at the economies globally, we know that in Europe there is hardly any growth. Can Europe, relative to its poor performance of the last few years, grow this year by 1-1.5%? It is possible, but we understand GDP is not a very relevant measure of economic well-being. In the US, the latest statistics are rather disappointing and in China, we have meaningful slowdown as well as in all resource producers of the world.

John Anderson, my friend who is a very good economist and also has his own consulting firm, calculated that the GDP figures in India are actually overstating economic growth significantly. It does not mean that he is bearish about the Indian financial assets. I am also positive essentially about the Indian assets, but growth is not what the government is publishing.
in Economic Times of India

....more from Marc Faber:

Marc Faber: Indian Stocks can correct by 20%

 



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Economic Outlook

Larry, From 1,300-Year-Old Tibetan Town, China

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Commodities, Stocks, Technical Analysis

on Wednesday, 18 March 2015 05:07

LarryEdelsonI’m now in the 1,300-year-old Tibetan Town, in Dukezong in Yunnan province, southwest China. A mix of mostly Tibetan Buddhists and Muslims, the area, with its dramatic scenery inspired the fictional paradise of Shangri-La described in the 1933 novel “Lost Horizon” by British author James Hilton.

To say the surroundings of mountains, streams, sheep, yack, Tibetan Monks and Imams is a sight to behold is an understatement. I have never seen such peaceful surroundings and beauty!

Tibetan Town is also along the old Silk Road. A trading route that will also be modernized by the build out of China’s Silk Road 2.0, the 21st century version of a trading network that will open Western China image1and trade to Europe, to Middle Asia, to Southeast Asia and even all the way to Germany on the Western portion of the route.



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Economic Outlook

Baltic Dry Index Hits New 29 Year Low

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Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Friday, 06 February 2015 10:03

The very recent fall of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to the lowest level since 1986 (Figure 1.) confirms our fears about the health of the world economy. Why is the drop in the index a bad sign for the global economy?

1

....read entire article HERE



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Economic Outlook

Marc Faber on Dollar, The US Economy & Global Interest Rates

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Posted by Marc Faber: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

on Wednesday, 28 January 2015 08:22

 

Marc-Faber-ESA ee17d6cd86QE has Grossly inflated Asset Prices

This year could be the year when investors lose confidence in central banks' ability to engineer a sustained economic recovery, Marc Faber said in a presentation in London.

So far, London and New York property, as well as equities, have "reacted very well" to the Fed's quantitative easing efforts, "but that doesn't boost the wealth of the nation and it leads to less social cohesion," he warned.

"One of the problems of this liquidity injection is that the Fed can force relatively responsible central banks to print money," Faber added.

QE has "grossly inflated" asset prices and as a result U.S. equities as "highly expensive," Faber said. A sustainable recovery should be based on investment rather than on consumption, but companies will find it more difficult to boost profits in the current economic climate, he added.



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Economic Outlook

Canary's Alive & Well

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH Premium

on Tuesday, 27 January 2015 09:29

This week we will cover the ECB QE action, Euro, USD and their implications for global trade.  We’ll also update a still-intact rally in gold, silver and the miners along with some (NFTRH+) trade opportunities.  But first let’s review December’s Semiconductor Equipment sector Book-to-Bill ratio, just out on Friday evening and discuss some of the dynamics in play with respect to the ‘b2b’ and the US economy.

b2b

From Semi.orgThe three-month average of worldwide bookings in December 2014 was $1.37 billion. The bookings figure



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Economic Outlook

When The World Monetary System Collapses, Life Will Go On

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Posted by Robert Fitzwilson

on Monday, 12 January 2015 08:05

King-World-News-When-The-World-Monetary-System-Collapses-Life-Will-Go-On1-1728x800 cToday a 40-year market veteran sent King World News an incredibly important piece that discusses everything from the New World Order to global monetary collapse.  This piece exclusively for KWN also notes that when the world monetary system collapses, life will go on.

Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus was a Roman politician and general who lived between 280-203 B.C. He came to fame during the years when Hannibal was ravaging the Roman armies and countryside. After the disastrous battle of Lake Trasimene during which another consular army was wiped out by Hannibal, a panicked Roman Senate called upon Fabius to take over the defense of the state. Fabius was given the rarely used power of Dictator….

Continue reading the Robert Fitzwilson piece HERE

 



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Economic Outlook

Energy Crisis As Early As 2016

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Monday, 05 January 2015 07:30

Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive up the price.

On Thanksgiving Day, 2014 Saudi Arabia decided to maintain their crude oil output of approximately 9.5 million barrels per day. They’ve taken this action despite the fact that they know the world’s oil markets are currently over-supplied by an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day and the severe financial pain it is causing many of the other OPEC nations. By now you are all aware this has caused a sharp drop in global crude oil prices and has a dark cloud hanging over the energy sector. I believe this will be a short-lived dip in the long history of crude oil price cycles. Oil prices have always bounced back and this is not going to be an exception.

To put this in prospective, the world currently consumes about 93.5 million barrels per day of liquid fuels, not all of which are made from crude oil. About 17% of the world’s total fuel supply comes from natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) and biofuels.

One thing that drives the Bears opinion that oil prices will go lower during the first half of 2015 is that demand does decline during the first half of each year. Since most humans live in the northern hemisphere, weather does have an impact on demand. I agree that this fact will play a part in keeping oil prices depressed for the next few months. However, low gasoline prices in the U.S. are certain to play a part in the fuel demand outlook for this year’s vacation driving season.

Related: Ten Reasons Why A Sustained Drop In Oil Prices Could Be Catastrophic

ada1113



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