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Economic Outlook

Chaos In Greece

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Posted by John Browne - Euro Pacific Capital

on Thursday, 18 June 2015 06:14

Screen Shot 2015-06-18 at 6.08.06 AMGeopolitics Will Trump Economics

Based on the continued failure of the negotiating parties to make any substantive progress in the talks over Greek debt payments, the financial world is tied up in knots over a possible Greek exit from the European Union. The uncertainty has manifested in both high and low finance, with a sharp sell-off in bonds, particularly EU and Greek government debt, and heightened retail withdrawals from Greek banks as depositors become wary of capital controls that would be imposed in the case of an exit. All concerned parties should likely breathe easier. Despite Greece's almost complete lack of financial integrity, neither NATO nor the EU can afford the political cost of a Greek exit from the EU.

The unacceptable specter lurking behind the EU negotiators is that, if Greece is shown the door by the EU, Russia or even China might step in to provide financing to Greece in return for a strategic foothold in Western Europe and gateway to the Eastern Mediterranean. This is a



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Economic Outlook

France Is a Dead Country

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Posted by Bill Bonner - Diary of a Rogue Economist

on Wednesday, 03 June 2015 10:07

“Old people, they should be killed at birth.”

                                                         Boris Vian

Still nothing to report from the financial markets. The Dow and S&P both ticked up about a half a percentage point yesterday. And gold has been hovering around $1,190 for over a week.

Is everyone at the beach already? Are investors waiting for something to happen? We don’t know…

Meanwhile…

“France is a dead country.”

A young man gave it to us straight.

“If you are young and you have any ambition, you leave France. You go to London, or the U.S.A., or China. There’s no point staying in France. I am French. It breaks my heart to leave. But I can’t stay. I don’t like being dead that much.”

Our friends in Paris tell us the same thing. Their children have left. If they want to visit their grandchildren they have to travel overseas.

Meanwhile, prices of top properties in London, Vancouver, and New York are higher than ever. But prices in Paris are soft.

“We’d like to sell our house [in Paris],” says a friend. “It’s perfect for a young family. But the young family we would sell it to has moved to London.”

Maybe it’s the weather. Maybe it’s the economy. But the capital of the Fifth Republic seems depressed. And old.

“The Biggest Scandal in France”

Yesterday, we took the train out to Normandy. We bought first-class tickets, hoping to have some extra space to work. But the first-class

compartment was the same as second class. Only shabbier. The seats were grimy. The upholstery was worn and greasy.



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Economic Outlook

Greece Could Be the Next Lehman Moment by the End of Next Week Hints IMF Boss

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Posted by Peter Rosenstreich - Chief FX analyst at Swissquote Bank

on Friday, 29 May 2015 06:55

The long-running Greek debt tragedy is almost over. The International Monetary Fund may be the first to blink at the end of next week, triggering another global financial crisis. Not surprisingly for financial markets the worry at the moment is Greece, Greece, Greece. 

International Monetary Fund CEO Christine Lagarde told Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung she could not ‘preclude’ a Greek exit, after four months of tortuous bail-out talks that have failed to get both sides closer to a deal to release aid to the country.

Optimism fades

‘No one wishes the Europeans a Grexit,’ said Ms Lagarde, hinting that Greece is closer to leaving the single currency than ever before. Extinguishing recent hopes in Athens that the two sides were ready to draft an agreement by the end of the week, Ms Lagarde said recent optimism over the country’s future had ’sobered’.

‘It’s very unlikely that we will reach a comprehensive solution in the next few days’, Ms Lagarde told the newspaper during a summit of G7 leaders in Dresden on Thursday.

Peter Rosenstreich, chief FX analyst at Swissquote Bank, explains why he thinks the market is finding the Greece deal situation ‘numbing’ right now…

Screen Shot 2015-05-29 at 6.49.10 AM

Video link click here!



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Economic Outlook

Jim Rogers On Why TPP Is So Secret

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Posted by Jim Rogers

on Thursday, 28 May 2015 08:26

Unknown-1The biggest trade deal in a decade is on its way to being fast-tracked through the U.S. Congress, which if happens means no debate, no amendments. What makes TPP or Trans Pacific Partnership different? It stands out in size as 40% of world trade will be involved. But it’s surrounded in secrecy. Singapore-based investor Jim Rogers explains that some industries are going to boom and some are going to collapse with the passage of this bill in this 3.41 minute interview.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a proposed regional regulatory and investment treaty involving twelve countries throughout the Asia Pacific region.

 

 



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Economic Outlook

See No Evil: What We Chose to Ignore in the April Jobs Report

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Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Wednesday, 13 May 2015 19:27

We live in an age where bad economic news is not only unwelcome, but it is routinely overlooked or excused. On the other hand, good news is spotted and trumpeted even when it doesn't exist. An ideal illustration of this dangerous tendency towards collective selectivity came last week when the markets and the media somehow turned an awful employment report into an ideal data set that confirmed all optimism and contained nothing but good news for investors. In truth, it was anything but.

The stakes were high with this year's April non-farm payroll report. It was the first major employment report of the Second Quarter and it was hoped that it would show an economy bouncing back from a sluggish winter. But there was cause for concern. The March report had been an unmitigated disaster. Only 126,000 jobs were created when 247,000 were expected. Then, two lesser April employment reports had been released, the ADP private payroll data and the Challenger jobs cuts report that came in far below expectations (Challenger showed the biggest month over month increase in layoffs in three years). Even more harrowing was the recently released .2% annualized GDP in the First Quarter, a dismal April trade deficit, and the worst back to back monthly productivity reports in almost a decade. We needed good news, and we needed it bad.

150508083857-chart-jobs-report-050815-780x439

The April report's headline was all most people needed to see before breathing a collective sigh of relief.



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Economic Outlook

There Will Be No 25-Year Depression

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Posted by Bill Bonner & Chris Hunter - Diary of a Rogue Economist

on Tuesday, 05 May 2015 13:49

0204 BW Depression 630x420Today, we have bad news and good news. 

The good news is that there will be no 25-year recession. Nor will there be a depression that will last the rest of our lifetimes. 

The bad news: It will be much worse than that. 

Yesterday, the Dow rose another 43 points. Gold seems to be working its way back to the $1,200 level, where it feels most comfortable. 

“A long depression” has been much discussed in the financial press. Several economists are predicting many years of sluggish or negative growth. It is the obvious consequence of several overlapping trends and existing conditions.

Old People Are Dead Wood

First, people are getting older. Especially in Europe and Japan, but also in China, Russia and the US. 



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16 Signs That The Economy Has Stalled Out And The Next Economic Downturn Is Here

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Posted by Michael Snyder via ZeroHedge

on Friday, 01 May 2015 09:54

makwIf U.S. economic growth falls any lower, we are officially going to be in recession territory.  On Wednesday, we learned that U.S. GDP grew at a 0.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter of 2015.  That was much lower than all of the “experts” were projecting.  And of course there are all sorts of questions whether the GDP numbers the government feeds us are legitimate anyway.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, if honest numbers were used they would show that U.S. GDP growth has been continuously negative since 2005.  But even if we consider the number that the government has given us to be the “real” number, it still shows that the U.S. economy has stalled out.  It is almost as if we have hit a “turning point”, and there are many out there (including myself) that believe that the next major economic downturn is dead ahead.  As you will see in this article, a whole bunch of things are happening right now that we would expect to see if a recession was beginning.  The following are 16 signs that the economy has stalled out and the next economic downturn is here…

#1 We just learned that U.S. GDP grew at an anemic 0.2 percent annual rateduring the first quarter of 2015…

The gross domestic product grew between January and March at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent, the U.S. Commerce Department said, adding to the picture of an economy braking sharply after accelerating for much of last year. The pace fell well shy of the 1 percent mark anticipated by analysts and marked the weakest quarter in a year.

....#2 - 16 HERE

 

 



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