Login

Economic Outlook

The End of Big Government?

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Larry Edelson - Money & Markets

on Wednesday, 25 January 2017 08:21

On President Trump’s first day in the Oval Office, he made good on his campaign promise to “rip up” trade deals he thinks are unfavorable to the U.S. economy by withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade negotiations.

And mark my words, this is only the beginning.

Not long after Trump’s election win – a surprise to most investors, but an outcome I predicted in advance thanks to my cycle analysis – I’m on record saying: “I have no doubt that he will follow through on this promise. He was clear about one goal throughout his campaign: Getting much tougher on trade relations.”

My cycles and AI models warned you to expect chaos in the global economy and financial markets, including a worldwide sovereign bond crisis. This was long before Mr. Trump even decided to run for president.

Screen Shot 2017-01-25 at 7.06.47 AMThe truth is, we were heading down this path no matter who became our next Commander in Chief. But the fact that Donald J. Trump is our 45thpresident at this critical time in our nation’s history, indeed in the annals of world history, fits in perfectly with my cycle analysis.

Look, this is the guy who authored “The Art of the Deal” and “The Art of the Comeback.” So make no mistake, he fully intends to use the same hard-ball negotiating tactics when it comes to a broad range of issues including:

 

  • Foreign trade talks…
  • Confronting China …
  • Levying tariffs and taxes on imports …
  • Even combating Isis and terrorism in general

 

As I said, this is just the beginning. Going forward, expect more divisive politics and social unrest that will make the million-women march look like a tea party. Ultimately, you can expect an end to the era of big government, not just in the U.S., but worldwide.

The old order that has been in place since WWII is about to come crashing down. The era in which governments amassed an unsustainable $275 trillion in total debts and obligations is quickly coming to a painful end.

Best wishes,

Larry



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

Dr. Judith Curry Quits University Over The State of Climate Science

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Robert Zurrer - Money Talks Editor

on Saturday, 07 January 2017 22:35

2521 earth20161122-768px-80To broaden the debate given the number of disagreements posted on Facebook since the article posted on this site January 4th titled "Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis", I am sending links to three articles below, 1 for, one against, and one fascinating youtube by a scientist that illustrates the amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere (.038%):

Against: Tucker Carlson Interviews Scientist Who QUIT HER UNIVERSITY Over Left Wing Climate Change Activism (VIDEO)

For: From NASA - Study sheds new insights into global warming trends (2016)

Factual information on Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere: Carbon Dioxide in perspective by The Galileo Movement

Robert Zurrer

Editor

Moneytalks.net

Late addition: As Donald Trump Denies Climate Change, These Kids Die of It

 

 

 



Banner

Economic Outlook

Peer-Reviewed Survey Finds Majority Of Scientists Skeptical Of Global Warming Crisis

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Forbes

on Tuesday, 03 January 2017 06:55

300px-Global warming ubx.svg 1It is becoming clear that not only do many scientists dispute the asserted global warming crisis, but these skeptical scientists may indeed form a scientific consensus.

Don’t look now, but maybe a scientific consensus exists concerning global warming after all. Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.

...continue reading HERE



Banner

Economic Outlook

Bush Trumps Reagan

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Friday, 23 December 2016 09:10

UnknownThe optimism that has followed the election of Donald Trump has pushed the Dow Jones Industrial Average to the threshold of 20,000, a level that will be both a nominal record and a symbolic milestone. Although this is not the way most observers had predicted that 2016 would play out, most on Wall Street have become extremely reluctant to look a gift horse in the mouth...or to even look at him at all. The impulse is to jump on and ride, and only ask questions if it pulls up lame. But if this year has proven one thing, it is that predictions made by the consensus should not be trusted.

Back in the earlier part of 2016 the mood was decidedly darker. At that point most people believed that the Federal Reserve would be raising rates throughout the course of the year. While such hikes had been anticipated (and delayed) for years, most took comfort in the belief that the economy would be expanding nicely by the time the Fed actually pulled the trigger. But in late 2015, the already tepid GDP growth seen in the prior two years seemed to be decelerating. Investors also concluded that Hilary Clinton was a lock to win the election, thereby assuring that the anti-growth policies of the Obama years would continue. Many looked at these developments and concluded that the sins of the past decade, in which the Government and the Federal Reserve had used unprecedented levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus to prop up the economy and the stock market, had finally caught up with us. As a result, the Dow Jones shed more than seven per cent in the first two weeks of the year, its worst start on record.

But the year comes to an end amid a cloud of Trump-fueled bullishness. The markets fully embrace an unapologetic capitalist, and his team of billionaires, who promises to cut taxes, rewrite trade deals in America's favor, take a machete to anti-growth regulations, repeal Obamacare, and return America to its former industrial might. Many are making parallels to the Reagan Revolution in which a maverick anti-establishment Republican took charge in Washington and ignited an economic boom, a stock market rally and a surge in the dollar. But to make this comparison, boosters must jump over a more telling comparison to the last Republican president elected, George W. Bush.



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

Warnings We'll Wish We'd Heeded, Part One - Plunging Jobless Claims

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Tuesday, 20 December 2016 07:49

It's the same story every time: Imbalances build up during a recovery but most investors ignore them because good times have become the new normal and the uptrend seems bullet-proof. Then things fall apart and everyone wishes they'd paid attention to history.

This series will cover a few of the more glaring examples of late-cycle myopia, beginning with jobless claims, i.e., the number of people joining the ranks of the unemployed.

In hard times when layoffs are widespread and new jobs scarce, this number spikes. In better times, when jobs are plentiful and employers are desperate to keep good people, the number falls.

But when it falls past a certain point wages start rising at a rate that leads (through market forces and/or Federal Reserve actions) to rising inflation and higher interest rates, which are destabilizing and generally cause a recession.

So let's see what this stat says about our place in the current business cycle:

43307 a



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

Trumponomics: Going for a Ride on the Trump Train

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by David Haggith - The Great Recession Blog

on Thursday, 15 December 2016 07:19

I’m afraid the Trump train is headed for a sharp economic curve that takes the US further away from free-market capitalism. The US already pulled out of the free-market station a long time ago, but Trumponomics moves deeply into a “mixed economy,” an economy in which government funding and private funding are married. The bankster-baron confederation in the Trump cabinet is where business and government consumate their marriage.

My pervious article about Trump’s cabinet lineup demonstrated a major economic shift forming in the presidential cabinet. This article explains what that shift means.

How Trumponomics may radically change the US economy

In Trumponomics, this is worked out by placing corporate giants in direct control over all the reins of government in order to make sure that government is compliant to corporate interests as an effective way of boosting the economy. Trump has stated that most of his infrastructure spending will come from private enterprise, and this confederation assures government funding and business funding align.

While this union empowers rapid economic growth, the downside to Trumponomics is that a mixed economy easily sidetracks from its stimulus intentions to becoming the ultimate form of crony capitalism because government and industry become such intimate partners in development that you cannot tell where one begins and the other really ends. That entices a flow of money from public to private interests. The state risks becoming the weaker partner in this arrangement — a mere servant of corporate needs and wants — because those running the state have their former institutions, lifelong friends and their pocket books at heart.

Purportedly, Trumponomics is for the economic betterment of the entire nation, which is accelerated by combining the strength of state and business as a team in a unified direction. (It worked well for Germany after World War I.) I believe the Donald intends it for the best; but another downside is that Government — instead of having purely regulatory roles (congress and the executive branch) and the judicial role — effectively subsidizes certain businesses in creating the projects that government wants to accomplish.

Trump is proposing that government may, for example, pay half the cost of building a bridge while a private contractor pays the other half in exchange for owning the right to collect a toll at the bridge forever. A bridge can support a toll that will be profitable up to a certain cost of construction. Above that cost, no one will pay the toll. So, the government kicks in the full cost above what industry sees as leaving room for an acceptable margin of profit. Government also helps clear the hurdles for construction. That gets a lot more things done quickly, but at what risks?

Trumponomics is a plan for petal-to-the-metal growth; but it leaves no one regulating businesses when business executives are placed in charge of all the regulatory agencies. Another pitfall is that government, instead of simply assuring a level playing field for all businesses, can slip into favoritism toward businesses that are highly regarded by the corporate executives who assume the government reins of power.

Granted, the US hasn’t had a truly free market for decades. The Fed, which is corporately owned, already rigs the economy constantly by enticing banks to soak up government debt at practically no interest with its promises of buying the debt back from its member banks and by creating money that it gives freely to banks to invest in stocks.

Trump, however, is moving the country further in the direction of a mixed economy. Instead of state ownership of the economy (communism), it is corporate ownership of the state by corporate control of state offices, potentially directing them to the opposite end from what those offices were originally created for as regulatory bodies.

I’m not saying corporate leaders should never hold cabinet positions, but when the cabinet is stacked almost entirely in the direction of Trump placing his corporate cronies in power, it looks very problematic, whether they are truly cronies (as in friends) or just a clutch of high-power corporate colleagues.

The early surprise effects of Trumponomics

Trump is already boosting the economy, and he hasn’t even assumed office. His Wall-Street cabinet lineup and his enormous corporate tax gifts (See “Trump: Titan of Corporate Tax Cuts” and “Trump Tax Plan Turns the Donald into Trickle-Down King.”) coupled to his promise that the government will take out huge sums of debt to buy projects from corporate tycoons have all certainly goosed stock-market expectations. Investors now run long with hopes that Trump’s plans will further inflate the stock market bubble to all-time weather-balloon heights.

Given how Trump railed against Wall Street in his campaign, it is ironic that Trumponomics has proven most outstanding for Wall Street where bank stocks have risen more than any other sector. Leading the leaders of the pack, Goldman Sachs has absolutely skyrocketed, up a massive 33% since Trump won the election earlier this month:

GoldmanStocks-500x333



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

Trumponomics – The New Hope

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Lance Roberts - The Real Investment Report

on Monday, 05 December 2016 08:21

Following the election, the market has surged around the theme of “Trumponomics” as a “New Hope” as tax cuts and infrastructure spending (read massive deficit increase) will fuel earnings growth for companies, stronger economic growth, and higher asset prices. It is a tall order given the already lengthy economic recovery at hand, but like I said, it is “hope” fueling the markets currently.

As I discussed on Tuesday:

“First, the market has moved from extremely oversold conditions to extremely overbought in a very short period. This is the first time, within the last three years, the markets have pushed a 3-standard deviation move from the 50-day moving average. Such a move is not sustainable and a correction to resolve this extreme deviation will occur before a further advance can be mounted.Currently, a pullback to the 50-day moving average, if not the 200-dma, would be most likely.”

SP500-MarketUpdate-112816-9

“Secondly, as discussed above, the advance to ‘all-time highs’ has been narrowly defined to only a few sectors. As shown the number of stocks participating, while improved from the pre-election lows, remains relatively weak and does not suggest a healthy advance.”

....continue to see all the charts and analysis HERE

 

 



Banner

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >> Page 3 of 19

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Ozzie Jurock Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine