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Economic Outlook

UK Joins U.S. Bombing, Courting Danger

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Posted by John Browne Senior Market Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.

on Wednesday, 01 October 2014 09:06

UnknownOn September 26th, the English Parliament voted to join the U.S.-led bombing of ISIL, at least in Iraq. The news was received with relief by most in the Anglosphere world and throughout Europe. However, very little regard has been paid to the relative benefits and costs. The military actions that the UK has committed herself to conduct will have a low probability of achieving the stated objective of "degrading and destroying" ISIL. However, there is a much higher likelihood that air strikes from the UK will increase ISIL's stated objective of projecting fear and terrorism deeper into the West. If that were to occur, the resulting implications for business will be difficult to project.

Despite apparent successes in very different conflicts in Libya and Kosovo, air power alone is unlikely to dislodge ISIL from its dominant position in Western Iraq and eastern Syria. The strategy is like trying to engage a boxer by throwing apples from outside the ring. It may bruise your opponent, but it will not result in victory. It may even cause retribution outside the ring, where the Queensbury rules do not apply. This is particularly apparent when one considers how the parliamentary authorization only applies to territory in Iraq, not Syria. If ISIL does not respect 20th Century borders, why should the West?



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Economic Outlook

Martin Armstrong: Hello Deflation!

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Thursday, 18 September 2014 06:17

74% of all Municipals want to raise Taxes. Municipal governments are going broke everywhere. This entire structure of government would never have been designed even by a moron. In Germany. a survey of 300 municipalities shows that 74% are planning to raise taxes. Now 27% plan to increase their cemetery fees, 25% want to demand more money for attending daycare or day schools. 21% plan to increase the property tax assessment rate, and 13% intend to raise the dog tax. (see latest German survery)

We are headed into this Sovereign Debt Crisis and Western Society as we know it cannot POSSIBLY exist. The problem with politicians is they just look at the people as a bottomless-pit of revenue to be taxed at will. They have no grand plan nor have they ever contemplated the long-term viability of such a system with no fiscal restraints whatsoever. They never see themselves as part of any problem – it is always the cheating people who do not hand them everything they demand.

Screen Shot 2014-09-18 at 6.07.37 AM



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Economic Outlook

Massive Durable Goods Orders Surge - Record 22.6%....

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Posted by Business Insider

on Tuesday, 26 August 2014 06:30

 
Durable goods orders surged 22.6% in July, associated with a massive increase in aircraft orders. 
The report showed that transportation orders were up 74.2%, but excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.8%, though this compares to a revised June number that showed orders ex-transport rose 3% compared to a previously reported 0.8%. 
 
Bloomberg Economist Michael McDonough tweeted the following chart, which shows the massive rise in orders. (more below)
 
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Excluding defense, new orders were up 24.9% in July, and non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft fell 0.5% in July. 
 
This is the largest increase in the headline reading for durable orders ever, topping the previous record of a 16.6% increase in June of 2000. 
 
Following the report, Ian Shepherdson at Pantheon Macro said, "In one line: Headline is wild, details more encouraging than -0.8% ex-transport number suggests."
 
Expectations were for orders to increase 8% in July.
 
Paul Dales said the 1.5% increase in non-transport, non-defense capital goods orders suggests, "business investment in equipment is on course to rise rapidly in the third quarter."
 
There was a massive range of expectations for this report, with some economists expecting this to push the headline increase in durable goods orders as high as 30%.  
 
The June durable goods report was also revised up to a 2.7% increase from a previous reading of 0.7%
 

S&P's Case-Shiller home price index have declined for the second-straight month.

June prices fell 0.2%, worse than the consensus estimate for no change, and even with the decline seen in May.

Year-over-year, prices climbed 8.1%, about in-line with forecasts but slower than a revised 9.4% gain for May.

The 20-city index hit 172.33, about in-line with forecasts and up from a revised 170.68 in June 2013.

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” David M. Blitzer, Chairman of 
the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing 
sector."

Here's what it's looked like recently:

WIDESPREAD SLOWDOWN IN US HOME PRICE GAINS

S&P's Case-Shiller home price index have declined for the second-straight month.

June prices fell 0.2%, worse than the consensus estimate for no change, and even with the decline seen in May.

Year-over-year, prices climbed 8.1%, about in-line with forecasts but slower than a revised 9.4% gain for May.

The 20-city index hit 172.33, about in-line with forecasts and up from a revised 170.68 in June 2013.

“Home price gains continue to ease as they have since last fall,” David M. Blitzer, Chairman of 
the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a release. “For the first time since February 2008, all cities showed lower annual rates than the previous month. Other housing indicators – starts, existing home sales and builders’ sentiment – are positive. Taken together, these point to a more normal housing 
sector."

Here's what it's looked like recently:

screen shot 2014-08-26 at 9.07.03 am



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