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Economic Outlook

Canary's Alive & Well

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH Premium

on Tuesday, 27 January 2015 09:29

This week we will cover the ECB QE action, Euro, USD and their implications for global trade.  We’ll also update a still-intact rally in gold, silver and the miners along with some (NFTRH+) trade opportunities.  But first let’s review December’s Semiconductor Equipment sector Book-to-Bill ratio, just out on Friday evening and discuss some of the dynamics in play with respect to the ‘b2b’ and the US economy.

b2b

From Semi.orgThe three-month average of worldwide bookings in December 2014 was $1.37 billion. The bookings figure



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Economic Outlook

When The World Monetary System Collapses, Life Will Go On

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Posted by Robert Fitzwilson

on Monday, 12 January 2015 08:05

King-World-News-When-The-World-Monetary-System-Collapses-Life-Will-Go-On1-1728x800 cToday a 40-year market veteran sent King World News an incredibly important piece that discusses everything from the New World Order to global monetary collapse.  This piece exclusively for KWN also notes that when the world monetary system collapses, life will go on.

Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus was a Roman politician and general who lived between 280-203 B.C. He came to fame during the years when Hannibal was ravaging the Roman armies and countryside. After the disastrous battle of Lake Trasimene during which another consular army was wiped out by Hannibal, a panicked Roman Senate called upon Fabius to take over the defense of the state. Fabius was given the rarely used power of Dictator….

Continue reading the Robert Fitzwilson piece HERE

 



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Economic Outlook

Energy Crisis As Early As 2016

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Monday, 05 January 2015 07:30

Low oil prices today may be setting the world up for an oil shortage as early as 2016. Today we have just 2% more crude oil supply than demand and the price of gasoline is under $2.00/gallon in Texas. If oil supply falls too far, we could see gasoline prices doubling within 18 months. For a commodity as critical to our standard of living as oil is, it only takes a small shortage to drive up the price.

On Thanksgiving Day, 2014 Saudi Arabia decided to maintain their crude oil output of approximately 9.5 million barrels per day. They’ve taken this action despite the fact that they know the world’s oil markets are currently over-supplied by an estimated 1.5 million barrels per day and the severe financial pain it is causing many of the other OPEC nations. By now you are all aware this has caused a sharp drop in global crude oil prices and has a dark cloud hanging over the energy sector. I believe this will be a short-lived dip in the long history of crude oil price cycles. Oil prices have always bounced back and this is not going to be an exception.

To put this in prospective, the world currently consumes about 93.5 million barrels per day of liquid fuels, not all of which are made from crude oil. About 17% of the world’s total fuel supply comes from natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) and biofuels.

One thing that drives the Bears opinion that oil prices will go lower during the first half of 2015 is that demand does decline during the first half of each year. Since most humans live in the northern hemisphere, weather does have an impact on demand. I agree that this fact will play a part in keeping oil prices depressed for the next few months. However, low gasoline prices in the U.S. are certain to play a part in the fuel demand outlook for this year’s vacation driving season.

Related: Ten Reasons Why A Sustained Drop In Oil Prices Could Be Catastrophic

ada1113



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Economic Outlook

The Geopolitics of U.S.-Cuba Relations

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Posted by George Freidman, Stratfor

on Friday, 26 December 2014 12:15

stratforLast week, U.S. President Barack Obama and Cuban President Raul Castro agreed to an exchange of prisoners being held on espionage charges. In addition, Washington and Havana agreed to hold discussions with the goal of establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries. No agreement was reached on ending the U.S. embargo on Cuba, a step that requires congressional approval.

It was a modest agreement, striking only because there was any agreement at all. U.S.-Cuba relations had been frozen for decades, with neither side prepared to make significant concessions or even first moves. The cause was partly the domestic politics of each country that made it easier to leave the relationship frozen. On the American side, a coalition of Cuban-Americans, conservatives and human rights advocates decrying Cuba's record of human rights violations blocked the effort. On the Cuban side, enmity with the United States plays a pivotal role in legitimizing the communist regime. Not only was the government born out of opposition to American imperialism, but Havana also uses the ongoing U.S. embargo to explain Cuban economic failures. There was no external pressure compelling either side to accommodate the other, and there were substantial internal reasons to let the situation stay as it is......

CLICK HERE to read the complete article



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Economic Outlook

All The Crazy Stuff Happening In World Markets As Russia Goes Into Crisis

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Posted by Business Insider

on Tuesday, 16 December 2014 08:06

Screen Shot 2014-12-16 at 6.42.38 AMIt's only 8 a.m. here in New York, but we have had a full day already.

Here's a super-quick overview of all the crazy things that are happening in markets right now.

 

  • The Russian ruble is collapsing. The ruble fell to as low as 78 against the US dollar and 100 against the euro. This collapse comes after the Russian central bank on Monday night unexpectedly raised interest rates to 17% from 10.5%.
  • US futures are down big after trading higher earlier Tuesday morning. Dow futures are down 100 points, S&P 500 futures are down 14, and Nasdaq futures are down 36.
  • Bond yields are collapsing. The US 10-year yield fell to as low as 2.01%, while the German 10-year bund fell below 0.6%. 
  • Oil is still in free fall. West Texas Intermediate crude oil is making new lows, trading near $54.20 a barrel. Brent crude oil also cracked the $60-a-barrel market and traded below $59. Both oil benchmarks are down more than 3%. 
  • The dollar is getting whacked. The dollar was falling against the euro, the British pound, and, most notably, the Japanese yen. The dollar was trading at about 116 against the yen after trading as high as 121 last week. This is the yen's best level against the dollar in more than a month.
  • The Norwegian krone is getting annihilated. The Norwegian krone was getting whacked Tuesday, falling to below 7.5 against the dollar and reaching parity — or equal value — with the Swedish krona for the first time since 2000.

 

This post will be updated as the market story changes throughout the day. 

Read more:  http://www.businessinsider.com/us-market-update-december-16-2014-12#ixzz3M4WkQk7e



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Economic Outlook

Data Driven or Driven Data

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Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Wednesday, 10 December 2014 08:05

UnknownThere can be little doubt that data releases rather than experience or intuition are driving the economic conversation. This is perhaps a function of the disconnection that many people feel about an economy that they no longer understand. Rather than trusting their own eyes or their own gut to form an opinion, it's much easier to grab a set of convenient numbers. The big question then becomes what numbers you choose to look at and which you choose to ignore. 

While there are a great many types of economic data releases, issued by a myriad of public and private sources, two reports have risen above the rest in importance: the Quarterly GDP estimates issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, and the monthly jobs report issued by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And those two reports have been recently coming up roses. The 3rd quarter GDP growth report, released on November 25th, revised growth upwards to an annualized rate of 3.9%, and the November Jobs report, released on December 5th, showed the creation of 321,000 new jobs in November, the highest monthly total in nearly three years. These reports have solidified the views of the mass of analysts that the U.S. economy is currently firing on all cylinders.

But to make this conclusion, almost all the other data sets, which used to be considered significant, have been either ignored or, when that proves impossible, rationalized away to make the figures unimportant. This never happens with strong data, which is typically accepted at face value.

In the weeks leading up to, and the days after, the recent GDP and jobs reports, a torrent of data releases came in that were almost universally awful. However, in our current era of journalistic lethargy, these reports have received almost no attention at all.

While it would be too long and boring to list all of these moribund statistics, here is a brief overview, in chronological order, of what you are likely not hearing:



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Economic Outlook

Beware - Fraudulent EPA Regs Enriches Politicians & Costs Citizens $284 Billion/Year

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Posted by CFact.org

on Sunday, 30 November 2014 21:52

Obama-new-energy-podium
"An exhaustive study found that EPA rules and energy markets will inflict $284 billion per year in extra electricity and natural gas costs in 2020, compared to its 2012 baseline year.” 

.....more from the The Gruberization of environmental policies

Former White House medical consultant Jonathan Gruber pocketed millions of taxpayer dollars before infamously explaining how ObamaCare was enacted. “Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage,” he said. “It was really, really critical to getting the bill passed.” At least one key provision was a “very clever basic exploitation of the lack of economic understanding of the American voter.”

The Barack Obama/Gina McCarthy Environmental Protection Agency is likewise exploiting its lack of transparency and most Americans’ lack of scientific understanding. EPA bureaucrats and their hired scientists, pressure groups and PR flacks are getting rich and powerful by implementing costly, punitive, dictatorial regulations “for our own good,” and pretending to be honest and publicly spirited."

EPA’s latest regulatory onslaught is its “Clean Power Plan

The typical household’s annual electricity and natural gas bills will rise 35% or $680 by 2020, compared to 2012, and will climb every year after that, as EPA regulations get more and more stringent. Median family incomes are already $2,000 lower since President Obama took office, and electricity prices have soared 14-33% in states with the most wind power – so these extra costs will exact a heavy additional toll.

Manufacturing and other businesses will be hit even harder, the study concluded. Their electricity and natural gas costs will almost double between 2012 and 2020, increasing by nearly $200 billion annually over this short period. Energy-intensive industries like aluminum, steel and chemical manufacturing will find it increasingly hard to compete in global markets, but all businesses (and their employees) will suffer.



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