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Economic Outlook

Is The Whole World Slowing Down?

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Posted by John Rubino - DollarCollapse.com

on Monday, 06 April 2015 05:59

That stats just keep getting stranger and, if you're a policymaker or an investor, scarier. According to a (now widely publicized) McKinsey & Co study, instead of deleveraging after the debt-induced crisis of 2008-2009, the world borrowed another $57 trillion. And most of the advanced economies ran their monetary printing presses flat-out. The next couple of charts show what the US and China, for instance, have been up to since 2010:

37204 a

37204 b

Now, conventional economic theory says that double-digit growth in debt and money creation should produce a boom, and that today our biggest problem should be too many people getting big raises at work. Yet that's not the case at all:

Weak Japan business confidence highlights recovery doubts



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Economic Outlook

US Trade Deficit Shrinks; First Quarter GDP Estimate Ticks Up to 0.1%

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Posted by Mike Shedlock - Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

on Friday, 03 April 2015 06:09

Trade Deficit Shrinks

Inquiring minds are investigating the Commerce Department report on International Trade in Goods and Services for February 2015, for clues about first quarter GDP.

Highlights

 

  • Exports were $186.2 billion, down $3.0 billion from January.
  • Imports were $221.7 billion, down $10.2 billion from January.
  • Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased $ 2.6 billion, or 3.2 percent, from the same period in 2014.
  • Year-to-date exports decreased $5.3 billion or 1.4 percent.
  • Year-to-date imports decreased $7.9 billion or 1.7 percent.

Balance of Trade

37191 a

GDP Analysis

Recall that exports add to GDP and imports subtract from GDP. Thus my first reaction to the report was that



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Economic Outlook

Big Trouble Looming: Rising Inventory to Sales Ratio

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Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Monday, 30 March 2015 06:45

Under the recent information deluge, we haven’t had the time to analyze a very interesting and disturbing trend. The U.S. business inventory to sales ratio has been rising for months. What does it mean for the American economy and the gold market?

According to the Monthly Wholesales Report, inventories were up 6.2 percent in January from a year ago and 0.3 percent from December. Coupled with weak sales data (sales fell by 3.1 percent from December 2014 and 1 percent from January 2014), the inventory to sales ratio increased to 1.35 in January from 1.33 in December 2014. It means that it would take 1.35 months for businesses to clear shelves, the highest inventory-to-sales ratio since July 2009.

Why is data on business inventories so important? The answer is that the changes in the inventory to sales ratio indicate any supply or demand imbalances in the economy. Inventories rise when supply is greater than demand. Inventories rising relative to sales mean that sales fail to meet demand projections. Thus, the inventory to sales ratio usually reaches its cyclical peak in the middle of the recession, when the economy is slowing down. Indeed, please note three things.

First, that inventories of durable goods jumped the most – by 7.7 percent from year ago, which is generally in line with weak data on news orders for durable goods. Second, contrary to the historical declining trend (due to improved inventory management), we are witnessing a gradual rise since 2013 and particularly since the summer of 2014. Actually, the inventory to sales ratio has reached the highest level since the Great Recession (see the chart below). Third, inventories are rising despite low prices. Thus, this indicates week global demand.

1

The consequences may be significant. The high levels of inventories could make entrepreneurs very



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Economic Outlook

Faber: Decoupling between Economic activity and Asset Markets

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Posted by Marc Faber: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

on Thursday, 26 March 2015 07:21

ET Now: Do you think financial markets are very naive in the way they are reacting? The world is fighting for deflation, but despite a global growth scare, most of the major markets are sitting at a record high, be it DAX, the Nikkei or the NASDAQ.

UnknownMarc Faber : Yes. There is decoupling between economic activity and asset markets. If you look at the economies globally, we know that in Europe there is hardly any growth. Can Europe, relative to its poor performance of the last few years, grow this year by 1-1.5%? It is possible, but we understand GDP is not a very relevant measure of economic well-being. In the US, the latest statistics are rather disappointing and in China, we have meaningful slowdown as well as in all resource producers of the world.

John Anderson, my friend who is a very good economist and also has his own consulting firm, calculated that the GDP figures in India are actually overstating economic growth significantly. It does not mean that he is bearish about the Indian financial assets. I am also positive essentially about the Indian assets, but growth is not what the government is publishing.
in Economic Times of India

....more from Marc Faber:

Marc Faber: Indian Stocks can correct by 20%

 



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Economic Outlook

Larry, From 1,300-Year-Old Tibetan Town, China

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Posted by Larry Edelson - Commodities, Stocks, Technical Analysis

on Wednesday, 18 March 2015 05:07

LarryEdelsonI’m now in the 1,300-year-old Tibetan Town, in Dukezong in Yunnan province, southwest China. A mix of mostly Tibetan Buddhists and Muslims, the area, with its dramatic scenery inspired the fictional paradise of Shangri-La described in the 1933 novel “Lost Horizon” by British author James Hilton.

To say the surroundings of mountains, streams, sheep, yack, Tibetan Monks and Imams is a sight to behold is an understatement. I have never seen such peaceful surroundings and beauty!

Tibetan Town is also along the old Silk Road. A trading route that will also be modernized by the build out of China’s Silk Road 2.0, the 21st century version of a trading network that will open Western China image1and trade to Europe, to Middle Asia, to Southeast Asia and even all the way to Germany on the Western portion of the route.



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Economic Outlook

Baltic Dry Index Hits New 29 Year Low

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Posted by Arkadiusz Sieron

on Friday, 06 February 2015 10:03

The very recent fall of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) to the lowest level since 1986 (Figure 1.) confirms our fears about the health of the world economy. Why is the drop in the index a bad sign for the global economy?

1

....read entire article HERE



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Economic Outlook

Marc Faber on Dollar, The US Economy & Global Interest Rates

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Posted by Marc Faber: The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report

on Wednesday, 28 January 2015 08:22

 

Marc-Faber-ESA ee17d6cd86QE has Grossly inflated Asset Prices

This year could be the year when investors lose confidence in central banks' ability to engineer a sustained economic recovery, Marc Faber said in a presentation in London.

So far, London and New York property, as well as equities, have "reacted very well" to the Fed's quantitative easing efforts, "but that doesn't boost the wealth of the nation and it leads to less social cohesion," he warned.

"One of the problems of this liquidity injection is that the Fed can force relatively responsible central banks to print money," Faber added.

QE has "grossly inflated" asset prices and as a result U.S. equities as "highly expensive," Faber said. A sustainable recovery should be based on investment rather than on consumption, but companies will find it more difficult to boost profits in the current economic climate, he added.



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