Login

Economic Outlook

Saxo Bank's Outrageous 2018 Predictions

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Saxo Bank

on Monday, 11 December 2017 06:18

Screen Shot 2017-12-11 at 6.27.01 AMWe’ve delved deep again this year in penning our annual list of 10 Outrageous Predictions. As usual, we roam the world and ride roughshod over consensus in sni ng out these supposedly highly unlikely events with underappreciated potential – events that could have tremendous implications if they come to pass. Enjoy! 

For 2018

- Fed loses independence as US Treasury takes charge

- Treasury enacts 2.5% yield cap after massive spike

- Bank of Japan loses control of its monetary policy

- USDJPY rises to 150 and then collapses to 100

- China issues CNY-denominated oil futures contract

- Petro-renminbi surges, USDCNY below 6.0

- Volatility spikes on sudden S&P 500 ‘ ash crash’

- S&P 500 drops 25% in spectacular plunge

- US voters push left in 2018 mid-terms, bonds spike

- US 30-year Treasury yields rip beyond 5%

- ‘Austro-Hungarians’ launch hostile EU takeover

- EURUSD to 1.00 after hitting new highs

- Investors ee Bitcoin as governments strike back

- Bitcoin @ $1,000

- South Africa resurgent after ‘African Spring’

- ZAR gains 30% versus EM currencies

- Tencent topples Apple as market cap king

- Tencent shares gain 100%

- Women take the reins of corporate power

- Female CEOs at more than 60 Fortune 500 companies 

....continue reading HERE



Banner

Economic Outlook

Fake Tax Reform

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Friday, 08 December 2017 06:44

psAfter supposedly chomping on the bit for years to pass meaningful tax reform, Republicans are now set to blow an historic opportunity. Whatever version of the Bill that emerges from the House and Senate Conference Committee (which will be signed by President Trump faster than he can down a Filet o'Fish), will be far less than the Republicans envisioned when they finally captured the White House and both Congressional Chambers in 2016. But from what I have seen of the particulars, the revisions to the tax code will offer a marginal, although temporary, win for low income individuals, a major slap for moderately successful wage earners and home owners, (especially in the high tax Blue States) and a huge victory for the extremely wealthy and certain categories of business owners. While it is certain that the plan will add to the growing deficit, its immediate economic and political impact is hard to predict.

For generations, taxpayers and politicians alike lambasted our overly complex tax code for its myriad of economic distorting loopholes that seemed to produce nothing except employment for legions of accountants and tax lawyers adept at gaming the system. As a result, talk about tax reform has always included proposals to make the system simpler, fairer, and more transparent. But on that front, the Republican proposals fail miserably. Trump and Congress will hail this achievement as being a major victory for the American people. But the true winner will be the swamp that Trump promised to drain.



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

8 Charts That Show How Insane the Economy Is Today

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by John Mauldin - Mauldin Economics

on Wednesday, 29 November 2017 06:36

Since the 2008 financial crisis, there’s been a growing number of ridiculous, inane, and otherwise nonsensical economic interventions from our central bankers that fill the daily economic headlines.

I have gone from the occasional smile to scratching my head now and then to "WTF" moments.

All that said, the economists who designed these interventions had their reasons. They thought lower interest rates and liquidity injections would create jobs, spur investment, and eventually produce inflation.

Then the idea was to reduce the stimulus before inflation got out of control. The problem is that none of these wishes came true.

The Philips Curve That Doesn’t Work Anymore

The key gauge of central bankers for assessing this tricky process is the unemployment rate.

An economy at “full employment” is one in which inflation is right around the corner. The theoretical relationship looks something like this – chart from Gary Shilling.

Image 1 20171120 ME OP JM8

In fact, we now have very low unemployment, accompanied by stubbornly low inflation.

Why is that? No one really knows.

All sorts of theories are floating around, but none have yet proven helpful in restoring the Phillips Curve.

Here’s reality, via Gary Shilling:



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

Canada’s Hunt for Taxes – Trudeau’s Destruction of the Canadian Economy

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 15 September 2017 06:48

Trudeau-JustinThe Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is doing his best to send Canada into the Dark Age. He is clearly a Marxist and has targeted small business which creates 70% of all employment. He said “I want to be clear,” at the Liberal party’s recent caucus gathering in Kelowna. “People who make $50,000 a year should not pay higher taxes than people who make $250,000 a year.”

These people who always seek to run governments have ZERO real world experience and totally fail to understand the economy no less how society functions. They believe that they can just decree some law and everything will function to the desires.

Trudeau has been defending the his outrageous tax increase on small business that will impose double taxation as owners will no longer be able to pay themselves dividends, neither will they be able to sprinkle income among family members, or holding certain investments — such as real estate — through a corporation.

The Hunt for Taxes in Canada is in full swing. This is only part of the economic decline we see coming into play starting in 2018.

....also from Martin:

Trying to Save the Euro from Total Disaster



Banner

Economic Outlook

Got a Bully Problem? Send in a Bully

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Frank Holmes - US Global Investors

on Thursday, 31 August 2017 06:06

1Here’s a news flash for you: Donald Trump is controversial and caustic. He says exactly what’s on his mind, no matter how incendiary, and he’s not afraid to make enemies, even with members of his party. “Bully” is a word many people use to describe the 45th U.S. president.

The thing is, no one who voted for Trump—I think it’s safe to say—didn’t already know this about him. His being a bully is baked right into his DNA, and he expertly honed this persona during his stint as the tough-as-nails host of NBC’s The Apprentice.

Remember when Trump received flak a few weeks back for retweeting a gif of himself 



Read more...

Banner

Economic Outlook

U.S. economic growth hits 3% rate in second quarter

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by MarketWatch

on Wednesday, 30 August 2017 07:43

MW-FG274 nerd o 20170221133048 MGWASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economic rebound in the second quarter was stronger than initially reported, as a lift to consumer spending and business investment led to the strongest growth in more than two years.

Gross domestic product rose at 3% rate from April to June, up from an initial 2.6% reading, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a smaller upward revision in second-quarter GDP to a 2.8% rate.

The economy picked up from a 1.2% rate in the first quarter. A slow first quarter followed by an improved second quarter also occurred in two of the past three years. Economists say that the most recent data suggest the U.S. is on track to maintain a 3%-plus clip in the third quarter.

The last time the U.S. economy had two quarters above 3% was in 2014.

President Donald Trump is relying on growth above 3% to generate enough revenue for the government to pay for tax cuts and more infrastructure spending.

....also analysis and charts from ZeroHedge:

US Second Quarter GDP Revised Sharply Higher To 3.0%, Best In Two Years



Banner

Economic Outlook

Here’s how the next recession begins

Share on Facebook Tweet on Twitter

Posted by Simon Black - Sovereign Man

on Tuesday, 22 August 2017 12:24

7b33d51709dbedc590c38fc9cb37fe98In 1886 there were only 38 states in the United States. 

Electric power was still cutting edge technology that few people had ever seen. 

The Statue of Liberty hadn’t even been dedicated yet. 

But it was that year that a man named Richard Sears founded a small retail company in Minneapolis, Minnesota that would grow into a retail juggernaut. 

Sears was truly the Amazon of its day. 

Even in the late 1800s the company was able to deliver just about any product you wanted right to your doorstep. 

This was no small feat considering the first delivery truck wouldn’t be invented until 1895. There was no transportation infrastructure. And two-thirds of the population lived in remote rural areas. 

Yet despite those challenges, Sears was still able to put any product you wanted in your hands. 



Read more...

Banner

<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next > End >> Page 1 of 20

Free Subscription Service - sign up today!

Exclusive content sent directly to your Inbox

  • What Mike's Reading

    His top research pick

  • Numbers You Should Know

    Weekly astonishing statistics

  • Quote of the Week

    Wisdom from the World

  • Top 5 Articles

    Most Popular postings

Learn more...



Michael Campbell Robert Zurrer
Tyler Bollhorn Eric Coffin Jack Crooks Patrick Ceresna
Josef Mark Leibovit Greg Weldon Ryan Irvine