Perspective on Currencies Stocks Bonds & Commodities

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Posted by Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors

on Thursday, 20 December 2012 20:26





The following is part of Pivotal Events that was

published for our subscribers December 13, 2012.



"Italian new car sales plunged in November...Decline of 20.1% Y/Y."

– Dow Jones, December 4

"The European debt crisis has given way to a new wave of corruption as some of the most hard-hit countries have tumbled in an annual graft-ranking study."

– Bloomberg, December 5 

This is from a watchdog group called Transparency International. Greece fell to 94th place from 80th, ranking worse than Colombia and Liberia. Greece's "Golden Age of Democracy" was founded not so much on intellectual inspiration, but more upon Athens sitting on one of the richest silver camps in history. Athenians could afford democracy, Spartans could not. The problem recently is that Greece, like any other country, cannot afford interventionist government.

"German industrial production unexpectedly dropped in October."

– Bloomberg, December 7

 The number was down 2.6% from September, which was down 1.3% from August.

"U.K. Manufacturing production fell more than economists forecast in October. Food and alcohol slumped."

– Bloomberg, December 7

Progress on this great reformation is being made.  The legislature in Michigan passed a "Right to Work" bill. This brings the count to 24 states where people can work without being forced to join a union. They can work without being forced to contribute their money to union leaders with an agenda they may find offensive.Unknown


Global business conditions continue to deteriorate. Normally, we don't follow these types of numbers too closely but they have been interesting since the summer. The ability to service debt is diminishing as federales around the world create huge amounts of paper as their lap-dog central banks buy it.

At some time the spell breaks, but skepticism is better than faith that another government scheme will work. It has been frustrating that our technical overboughts on various bond sectors last summer were not followed by substantial price declines. The long bond dropped 9 points when about 15 were possible. Corporates and Munis eased their overbought conditions and then firmed.

What prevented a significant setback? Central bank bids and the knee-jerk about buying bonds as the economy weakens. Into corporates? Then there was the flight-to-risk bid as stocks and commodities weakened into early November.

The bond future rallied to resistance at the 151 level in the middle of November. The action was only moderately overbought, which makes this week's decline interesting. Yesterday clocked an outside reversal to the downside.  Perhaps the one-way-street is beginning to wander.

However, as Fat Jack famously observed "There is nothing too good that it can't be screwed up."


Due to the oversold in early November and seasonal influences a rally has been possible into December. The next phase includes small caps outperforming the big ones from around now until early January. The "Turn-of-the-Year" model.

If the rally was moderate it would be within the Secular Bear Market model.

So far it has been moderate.


The USD was likely to decline into January. Last week, it almost reached support at the 79 level. The low was 79.7 on a weakness that could run into January.

The Canadian dollar has been expected to be firm into January. The low was 99.5 in early November and so far the high has been 101.8. 

If commodities stall out over the next few weeks, so will the C$.


After all of the drought excitement in July, wheat continues its "stair-step" down. The high was 947 and today its at 806, a new low for the move. Last week's view that firming then could continue into January seems not to be working.

Other agricultural prices have been sympathetic, with the index (GKX) stair-stepping down from 533 to this morning's 462, a new low for the move.

However, wheat and the index are approaching an oversold condition.

Going the other way, base metal prices have rallied nicely with copper making it to 372 yesterday. The action is close to an overbought condition and close to resistance. Copper is vulnerable.

The index of base metals (GYX) is recording a similar pattern and at 397 seems close to a setback. On the bigger picture, base metals set an important high at 502 in April 2011. We took that as a cyclical high and the subsequent low was 346 in July – during that concern about European insolvencies. The difference between then and now is that the European economy has suffered further deterioration but there is no panic. Not even a little one.

Metals were likely to rally into January, but the action is approaching overbought. Who cares if it continues over the next few weeks. Let's declare a victory and enjoy a "Christmas bowl of smoking" punch. It would help to restore alcohol consumption numbers in England.


Link to December 14 ‘Bob and Phil Show’ on TalkDigitalNetwork.com: http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/12/fed-checks-into-hotel-california/" http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2012/12/fed-checks-into-hotel-california/


E-MAIL   HYPERLINK "mailto:bhoye.institutionaladvisors@telus.net" bhoye.institutionaladvisors@telus.net 

WEBSITE:    HYPERLINK "http://www.institutionaladvisors.com" www.institutionaladvisors.com 





No Way Out

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Posted by Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital

on Tuesday, 18 December 2012 09:01

By upping the ante once again in its gamble to revive the lethargic economy through monetary action, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee is now compelling the rest of us to buy into a game that we may not be able to afford. At his press conference this week, Fed Chairman Bernanke explained how the easiest policy stance in Fed history has just gotten that much easier. First it gave us zero interest rates, then QEs I and II, Operation Twist, and finally "unlimited" QE3.

Now that those moves have failed to deliver economic health, the Fed has doubled the size of its open-ended money printing and has announced a program of data flexibility that virtually insures that they will never bump into limitations, until it's too late. Although their new policies will create numerous long-term challenges for the economy, the biggest near-term challenge for the Fed will be how to keep the momentum going by upping the ante even higher in their next meeting.

The big news is that the Fed is now doubling the amount of money it is printing. In addition to its ongoing $40 billion per month of mortgage backed securities (to stimulate housing), it will now buy $45 billion per month of Treasury debt. The latter program replaces Operation Twist, which had used proceeds from the sales of short-term treasuries to finance the purchase of longer yielding paper. The problem is the Fed has already blown through its short-term inventory, so the new buying will be pure balance sheet expansion.

NoWayOutTo cloak these shockingly accommodative moves in the garb of moderation, the Fed announced that future policy decisions will be put on automatic pilot by pegging liquidity withdrawal to two sets of economic data. By committing to tightening policy if either unemployment falls below 6.5% or if inflation goes higher than 2.5%, Bernanke is likely looking to silence fears that the Fed will stay too loose for too long. While these statistical benchmarks would be too accommodative even if they were rigidly enforced, the goalposts have been specifically designed to be completely movable, and hence essentially meaningless.

Bernanke said that in order to identify signs of true economic health, the Fed will discount unemployment declines that result from diminishing labor participation rates. It is widely known that a good portion of unemployment declines since 2009 have resulted from the many millions of formerly employed Americans who have dropped out of the workforce. But like many other economists, Bernanke failed to identify where he thinks "real" employment is now after factoring out these workers. So how far down will the unemployment number have to drift before the Fed's triggering mechanism is tripped? No one knows, and that is exactly how the Fed wants it.

A similarly loose criterion exists for the Fed's other goalpost - inflation. Bernanke stated that he will look past current inflation statistics and look primarily at "core inflation expectations." In other words, he is not interested in data that can be demonstrably shown but on much more amorphous forecasts of other economists who have drunk the Fed's Kool-Aid. He also made clear that rising food or energy prices will never fall into the Fed's radar screen of inflation dangers.

For as long as I can remember (and I can remember for quite some time) the Fed has stripped out "volatile" increases in food and energy, preferring the "core" inflation readings. But in the overwhelming majority of cases, the headline numbers are significantly higher than the core. In other words, Bernanke simply prefers to look at lower numbers. In his press conference, he made it clear that the Fed will avoid looking at price changes in "globally traded commodities," that are all highly influenced by inflation.

These subjective and attenuated criteria give Fed officials far too much leeway to ignore the guidelines that they are putting into place. If the Fed will not react to what inflation is, but rather to what it expects it to be, what will happen if their expectations turn out to be wrong? After all, their track record in forecasting the events of the last decade has been anything but stellar.

The Fed officials repeatedly assured us that there was no housing bubble, even after it burst. Then they assured us the problem was contained to subprime mortgages. Then they assured us that a slowdown in housing would not impact the broader economy. I could go on, but my point is if the Fed is as spectacularly wrong about inflation as it has been about almost everything else, will they be able to slam on the brakes in time to prevent inflation from running out of control? And if so, at what cost to the overall economy?

The Fed is committing to more than a $1 trillion annual expansion in its balance sheet, an amount greater than the total size of its balance sheet as late as 2008. Most forecasters believe that the Fed will have $4 trillion worth of assets on its books by the end of 2013, and perhaps more than $5 trillion by the end of 2014. If conditions arise that require the Fed to withdraw liquidity, the size of the sales that would be required will be massive. Who exactly does the Fed believe will have pockets deep enough to take the other side of the trade?

As the biggest buyer of treasuries, it is impossible for the Fed to sell without chances of collapsing the market. Surely any other holders of treasuries would want to front-run the Fed, and what buyer would be foolish enough to get in front of the Fed freight train? The bottom line is that it is impossible for the Fed to fight inflation, which is precisely why it will never acknowledge the existence of any inflation to fight.

But perhaps the most absurd statement in Bernanke's press conference was his contention that the Fed is not engaged in debt monetization because it intends to sell the debt once the economy improves. This is like a thief claiming that he is not stealing your car, because he intends to return it when he no longer needs it. To make the analogy more accurate, there could not be any other cars on the road for him to steal.

Without the Fed's buying, it would be impossible for the Treasury to financeits debts at rates it can afford. That is precisely why the Fed has chosen to monetize the debt. Of course, officially acknowledging that fact would make the Fed's job that much harder. Without the monetization safety valve, the government would have to make massive immediate cuts in all entitlements and national defense, plus big tax increases on the middle class.

As I wrote when the Fed first embarked on this ill-fated journey, it has no exit strategy. The Fed adopted what amounts to "the roach motel" of monetary policy. If the Fed actually raised rates as a result of one of its movable goal posts being hit, the result could be a much greater financial crisis than the one we lived through in 2008. The bond bubble would burst, interest rates and unemployment would soar, housing prices would collapse, banks would fail, borrowers would default, budget deficits would swell, and there would be no way to finance another round of bailouts for anyone, including the Federal Government itself.

In order to generate phony economic growth and to "pay" our country's debts in the most dishonest manner possible, the Federal Reserve is 100% committed to the destruction of the dollar. Anyone with wealth in the U.S. dollar should be concerned that economic leadership is firmly in the hands of irresponsible bureaucrats who are committed to an ivory tower version of reality that bears no resemblance to the world as it really is.


Click here to buy Peter Schiff's best-selling, latest book, "How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes."

For a look back at how Peter Schiff predicted the current crisis, read his 2007 bestseller"Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse" [buy here]



MACRO-US: The Math Does Not Lie

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Posted by Greg Weldon - Weldon's Money Monitor

on Tuesday, 11 December 2012 18:35

Unemployment, US Dollar, Palladium Aluminum & Gold:

We note commentary from President Obama's Chief Economic Advisor Alan Krueger, a wildly accomplished academic-economist, following Friday's release of the BLS Employment Situation Report for November ...

--- "Today's employment report provides further evidence that the US is continuing to heal. It is critical that we continue the policies that are building an economy that works for the middle class. The types of programs that the President has been proposing to support the economy in the short-run, get us on a sustainable fiscal path in the long-run, and protect the middle class. We are going to continue to see progress in this economy."

Indeed, appearing on radio following the report, Krueger specifically singled out one data point, one which could have easily been gleaned from watching television, as a 'major positive'. Mister Krueger focused solely on the sizable single-month increase in hiring by the Retail sector posted in November. Alan even stated how this headline figure defined a resurrection in consumer confidence within the middle-class.

Confidence, linked to this labor report ???

Why, because the Unemployment Rate declined and retailers hired more people during their busiest season ???

Try selling that thought to the MILLIONS of CHRONICALLY UNEMPLOYED.

Try selling that thought, to those who once represented the middle-class.

Indeed, we would quickly point out that the rise in Retail Employees posted for November was NOT as large as the rise posted in November of 2007, during a period immediately preceding the biggest collapse in the US labor market in decades.

In fact, an even larger rise in Retail Employment, posted in November of 2007, marks what is still the all-time peak in Retail employment in the US. The simple fact is, that the total number of people employed in the Retail Industry fell to a new multi-decade low in December of 2009, and has only managed to climb back to the SECULAR LOW set in 2003.

This is a sign of building confidence ???

Moreover, we note that Retail Employment has regained ONLY 44.8% of the jobs lost during 2008-09 ... and ... despite the sizable single-month gain in November, hiring in this macro-sensitive sector continues to LAG the overall, still-feeble and sub-par, 'recovery' in total employment.

Screen Shot 2012-12-11 at 5.25.42 PM



Unusual: Gold Down Dollar Down

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Posted by Przemyslaw Radomski

on Wednesday, 05 December 2012 13:20

Both Gold & the US Dollar have declined in tandem since mid-November. That raises the question.....



Screen Shot 2012-12-05 at 12.22.55 PMScreen Shot 2012-12-05 at 12.23.28 PM








Today’s essay is the first one in our two-part commentary on U.S. debt and the dollar collapse.

On numerous occasions we have gone back in our commentaries to the year 1971 and U.S. President Richard Nixon’s decision to cut off the ties between the greenback and gold. Today, we revisit the topic once more and check what kind of implications it has for the price of the yellow metal.

Prior to 1971 the most prominent world currencies had been regulated by the Bretton Woods system. Under this agreement, the U.S. agreed to link the dollar to gold. This meant that any amount of dollars handed over by a foreign government or central bank would be exchanged for gold at $35 per ounce. Such an arrangement had a particularly important consequence for money creation. Namely, the U.S. government shouldn't issue more paper money than it had physical gold to back this money up. In practice, it was rather improbable that all the dollars would have to be exchanged for gold at once, so the U.S. government in fact issued more money than it could have paid for with gold, but the main restriction was in place: debt numbers couldn't be inflated to unsustainable levels.

In 1944 when the Bretton Woods system was introduced, the relation of U.S. debt to the official Treasury gold reserves stood at $319.90 per ounce of gold. This meant that there was $319.90 of borrowed money for every ounce of gold the U.S. had. With the price of gold at $35, a quick calculation shows that the U.S. gold reserves could have paid for about 10.9% of its debt. At first, it might seem that there was a lot of debt compared to gold assets. On the other hand, however, such a ratio was similar to reserves required from commercial banks by the regulator. In a way, the U.S. operated like a bank (with a lot of differences, of course).

By 1970, partly due to the Vietnam War, the U.S. began running consistent deficits. The government printed more dollars to meet its obligations and the amount of debt per ounce of gold surged to $1,172.56. The coverage of debt in gold went down to 3.1%. The ability of the U.S. to keep up to the promise to exchange dollars for gold was put into question. Nixon, fearing a situation in which foreign central banks would make a collective bank run on Fort Knox, decided to cease to exchange the dollar for gold and directly break the Bretton Woods agreement.

From that moment on, the dollar has been a fiat currency, that is a currency not backed by a physical asset, just by a promise of the government to accept payments (taxes) in it. But, as we've just seen, promises can be broken and right now the ability of the U.S. to pay its debts off in the future is also being put into question. To see why, take a look at the chart below.

commentary free 2012 12 04 1

Since 1970 U.S. debt has gone up from $370.9 bln to $16,159.5 bln, which is a more than 41-fold increase (!). Since 2000 gold has appreciated along with the ever sharper increase in debt. A similar chart was discussed in our commentary on gold as insurance.

Our next chart shows the rates of change (ROC) of both the U.S. debt and the average annual price of gold between 1920 and 2012.

commentary free 2012 12 04 2

The annual ROC of U.S. debt was in a general downtrend in the 1983-2000 period which was accompanied by poor performance of gold. Since 2000, the ROC of U.S. debt has been increasing again, which means that debt has been growing increasingly rapidly. This coincided with gold’s extraordinary performance during the last 10 years.

The U.S. Federal Reserve, led by Ben Bernanke, initiated three substantial rounds of what it callsquantitative easing (QE). In short, QE is a process in which the Fed buys government bonds and other assets from secondary markets with newly created dollars. Its (official) purpose is not to finance government deficits but rather to bring the U.S. economy back on the growth trajectory. Nonetheless, the effects of QE can be compared to those of printing enormous amounts of money. Just to give you an idea of how much debt the consecutive rounds of QE have so far created (approximate amounts):

  • QE1 (Nov 2008 – Mar 2010): $1.65 trillion
  • QE2 (Nov 2010 – Jun 2011): $600 billion
  • QE3 (Sep 2012 – ?): $40 billion per month.


As a matter of fact, Fed’s quest to provide the economy with more incentives has not stopped. The direct effect of QE on debt is reflected on the chart below.

commentary free 2012 12 04 3

In the period between January 2012 and November 2012 U.S. debt grew by 7.2%. There’s more to it: QE3 is an open-ended operation. This means that there is no limit on the amount of money the Fed can create and inflate the debt with within QE3. The purchases in the amount of $40 billion per month will continue as long as the Fed deems necessary.

The points mentioned above add up to a picture which is not at all rosy for the U.S. But it’s not apocalyptic either. Particularly for precious metals investors. Let us explain why.

It belongs to common sense that you can’t borrow money forever. Economics has a lot of intricacies and can be quite complicated at times but the basic rules are very simple. You borrow, you have to pay back. So if the government borrows too much and can’t pay it back, it will have to go bankrupt. The more debt it has, the worse its reputation is. People are less willing to put their money into treasury bills of a government with excessive debt. If the economy is shaky and the government is printing money, it damages its reputation but also makes the currency worth less and less. Hyperinflation is not a default nor bankruptcy in technical terms, but it is in practical terms. For the USD bond holders it will make little difference if they are not paid or paid something that is worthless.

In such an environment investors, motivated psychologically, turn to gold and silver. As Warren Buffet correctly pointed out:

“[Gold] gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”

But there’s one side of precious metals that is not covered by that quote. Gold and silver may be just lumps of metal but what makes them extremely interesting is the psychological association people have with them. Gold and silver have been used as currencies throughout the centuries. And people, for whatever reason, perceive them as valuable, particularly in times of economic turbulence. This alone stipulates that gold and silver prices may rise along with the worsening of the economic situation. And in case of the unlikely collapse of paper currencies, gold and silver could quite naturally come in as the base of a new monetary system.

The possibility we would like to highlight now is the default of the U.S. on its obligations and the demise of the dollar. In this scenario, a new currency system based on the gold standard is introduced. The financial collapse is usually perceived as Armageddon but doesn't necessarily have to be one. Just imagine, even in case of the U.S. government defaulting on its obligations, the assets that the country has would remain in place. The buildings, cars and infrastructure would still be there, they wouldn't melt down in the possible financial crisis.

A lot of property would change hands and there definitely would be turmoil, but it wouldn't need to amount to a civil war. Take a look at Latvia, a country where the GDP between 2007 and 2009 shrank by 24%, where unemployment shot up to 30% in 2010. Where the government laid off 30% of the civil servants and cut payrolls by 40%. Latvia didn't disintegrate.

So what implications for gold would a collapse of the U.S. dollar have? The next chart will aid us to analyze such an occurrence.

commentary free 2012 12 04 4

This chart presents the already mentioned relation of U.S. debt to Treasury gold reserves – the amount of debt per one ounce of gold – up to 2012. The red line represents U.S. Treasury gold reserves in metric tonnes, while the yellow line denotes the amount of U.S. debt in dollars per ounce of gold. The debt per ounce has visibly increased since 1971, accelerating around 2000 and even more around 2008. In 2012, there were $61,796.11 of debt per one ounce of gold owned by the U.S. government.

Now, if a new gold standard is introduced and the agreement works like the Bretton Woods system, the dollar (or whatever other currency) would be tied to gold. As noted earlier in this essay, at the introduction of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 the debt coverage for the U.S. stood at 10.9% (or $319.90 of debt per one troy ounce of gold). If the new system were based on similar assumptions with debt coverage at 10%, this would imply a fixed price of $6,179.61 per ounce of gold ($6,179.61 per ounce of gold divided by $61,796.11 of debt per one ounce of gold gives us coverage of 10%).

But is the dollar collapse all that likely? Or let us restate the question: if the dollar doesn't collapse, does it still make sense to be invested in gold and silver? Bear with us until next week when we publish the second part of this commentary. Until then you can gain some more insight into why holding on to precious metals might keep you on the safe side by reading our essays on gold and silver as insurance and on gold and silver portfolio structure.

Thank you for reading.

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Don’t fight the emotionality on the market – take advantage of it! - Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

About Sunshine Profits

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GOLD: What's Behind the Massive Selloff?

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Posted by Mark O'Byrne via Wealth Wire

on Thursday, 29 November 2012 17:35

gold marketsAfter a 3.5 Million Ounce Selloff, Gold recovered somewhat overnight in Asia and again today in Europe despite the sharp selling seen on the COMEX yesterday.

As ever, it is very difficult to pinpoint exactly why gold and all precious metals fell in price. Interestingly, oil fell by even more - NYMEX crude was down by 1% and was down by more than 1.7% at one stage.

The CME Group, which operates the U.S. COMEX gold futures market, said Wednesday's plunge in gold was not the consequence of a "fat finger" or a human error. The trading wasn’t even fast enough to trigger a pause on Globex, said CME.   

One thing that we can say for certain was that there was massive, concentrated selling as the New York stock markets opened with some 35,000 lots sold which is equivalent to 3.5 million ounces and saw the price fall from $1,735/oz to $1,711/oz between 0825 and 0830 EST.

One sell order alone was believed to be 24 tonnes or 770,000 troy ounces.  Incredibly there was 35% daily volume in just 60 seconds. 

The selling, like all peculiar, counter intuitive, sharp sell offs in recent months, was COMEX driven with COMEX contracts slammed leading to further stop loss selling.

The selling may have been by speculative players on the COMEX. It may have been algo or computer trading driven or tech selling – although this is less likely.

It would be naive to completely discount the possibility that a bullion bank, short the gold and silver markets, may have been trying to protect their large concentrated short positions. The CFTC data shows some bullion banks continue to have massive concentrated short positions - which are still being investigated.

Informed commentators questioned the nature of the selling as a large institutional COMEX trading entity would normally gradually sell a position of this size in order to maximise profit.

Other speculation was that because of the wholesale liquidation of all precious metals and some other commodities, the selling may have come from a fund forced to sell a range of speculative positions after the SAC Wells notice. 

Futures and options expiration may have also played a role, according to some analysts.

The robustness of gold overnight and recovery this morning is encouraging as normally one would expect to see follow through selling after such a sharp move lower.

The gold mining stocks indices were also higher yesterday which suggests that some precious metal market participants see the move as another mere blip in the precious metal bull markets.

The fundamentals driving the gold market remain very sound with broad based demand - store of wealth, investor, institutional and central bank - continuing to be seen globally.

There have not been very significant increases in open interest on the COMEX and there is no mania on trading floors and universal bullishness.  

Indeed, this is far from the case today. There continues to be little or no positive coverage of the precious metals in the non specialist financial media. 

While ETF holdings are at record highs - the increase in holdings has been tentative and gradual with no huge jump in demand which would be associated by a market top.

The shoeshine girls and boys have been selling large amounts of gold jewellery in the international phenomenon that is 'cash for gold.'

Meanwhile figures for mints, refiners and bullion dealers in last quarter show retail investor interest is tepid at best.   

*Post courtesy of Mark O'Byrne at GoldCore. His daily ‘Market Updates’ are quoted and reported on in the international financial press on a daily basis. Read more at Gold Core.

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We break down complex topics like inflation, debt and monetary policy, and explain why understanding each is critical to preserving wealth.

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