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Currency

The World at a Glance

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Thursday, 04 October 2012 09:07

worldatglance

One of the primary mistakes that the Federal Reserve is making has been to follow the same policy of Japan with exceptionally low interest rates. While the theory that lower interest rates will stimulate borrowing, the false assumptions are many. (1) banks will pass on the savings, (2) they ignore the devastation imposed upon the retired community who have saved all their lives only to see fixed income collapse, and (3) interest rates must naturally compensate the lender for the loss in purchasing power created by inflation.(Ed Note: Martin on Gold Today)

Look closely at this table. The two countries with negative economic growth are those with the lowest rate of interest. Inflation will rise not by lowering interest rates, but when people resume a normal life posture. That includes spending as well as investment. That cannot be stimulated by lowering interest rates which sharply reduces the fixed income for savers. If they feel their income is reduced, they correspondingly reduce their spending and that lowers GDP diminishing the optimism that the economy will recover. On top of this, as long as government continues to raise taxes, they will further reduce the incentive of small business to hire and this merely fuels the rising unemployment. Government does not further GDP or create meaningful economic jobs by raising taxes or hiring more public servants that drain the economy producing NOTHING for society. The youth today coming out of school even in the United States are finding it hard to obtain meaningful employment. In Spain, unemployment among the youth has exceeded 60%.

Inflation will rise not with QE1,2,3,4,5,6, … or 2000. It will rise when government stops lining the pockets of the bankers and just for once understand that the best solution is a free market that stops exploiting the savings of people for the benefits of the special interests. Stop the rhetoric that is fueling hatred of the so called “rich” as the problem when in fact it has been a political problem of complete fiscal irresponsibility. Obama blames the rich while behind the curtain taking 747s full of cash from the banks and what may appear to be even foreign sources as do the Republicans. Obama should win, but at what cost to civil unrest by 2014?

 

Gold

 

Gold is still in a position to press higher. Next week remains a target for rising volatility and the week after a turning point. The numbers are the numbers. We need a weekly closing ABOVE 17997 to signal a retest of the old high. But gold is not yet ready for the breakout. That appears to be next year and 2014 will mark the beginning of civil unrest on a more global scale. As long as gold failed to break above the 2011 high this year, then the pause (correction) is intact and that extends the cycle for a final high off in 2017 with the potential to go to 2020. Things start to come unraveled next year after the summer and a Phase Shift appears likely within the economy between 2013 and 2015.75.

 

 



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Currency

A Look At Reality...... Understanding What Is Coming Next

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Posted by SHTF & C. McGrath

on Wednesday, 03 October 2012 08:16

Everywhere we look the masses are hurting. Whether it be the 100 million Americans dependent on the government safety net to survive, or the millions of Europeans rioting in the streets of Spain and Greece, a sense of serious crisis is in the air.

Over the last four years, slowly and without abatement, the economic outlook across the globe has worsened significantly.

In France, a new 75% income tax on individuals earning over a million Euro ($1.2 million) per year was announced today. Incomes of $150,000 will be taxed at 40%. French business owners and citizens are scrambling to leave the country to avoid the new legislation. This has been done to offset the billions being used to bail out failing banks and reckless government spending.

Similarly, in the United States next year, individuals and small business owners will be hit with massive tax increases as universal health care is implemented across America.

Last week the Spanish Congress had to literally barricade themselves behind police and locked doors as thousands of protesters stormed their Congressional hall demanding the resignations of every representative.

The austerity sledgehammer is coming down hard, and everyone is starting to feel it.

The response from the political and financial elite has been to continue doing what they’ve been doing, because somehow the same financial and economic policies they’ve implemented over the last four years, those which have done nothing to increase jobs or economic growth, are going to make a difference now.

The decline is happening before our eyes. Millions of people in once stable economies have been impoverished by job losses, taxation and out of control price inflation on essential commodities like food and energy.

Charlie McGrath, of Wide Awake News, warns that what’s coming next is a catastrophic implosion – and none of us will be spared:

Screen Shot 2012-10-03 at 6.27.53 AM

 

Europe, Japan, China, and the United States are in serious trouble. It may not happen next week, or next month. But, you can be assured, just as 2+2=4, that a financial and economic collapse is coming.

It will be (is) unprecedented in size and scope.

Tens of trillions of dollars in monetary printing in the US, Europe and China has not been enough to stave it off, and all signs indicate that the next round of multi-trillion dollar infusions will do nothing but extend the game just a bit further.

trillionz

We have long since passed the point of no return and are rapidly approaching the breaking point.



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Currency

Buy Gold, Sell Oil

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Posted by Chris Mayer via The Daily Reckoning

on Friday, 28 September 2012 07:46

Yeah, yeah, I know…gold and oil are both hard assets, but that doesn’t mean they will both provide a reliable hedge against the inflationary trend Ben Bernanke is creating.

In short, I like gold much better than oil…at least for the next couple of years.

The best reason to own gold is also the most well-known reason. The US government prints a lot of money, as the nearby chart plainly shows.

DRUS09-27-12-1

In round numbers, the Fed conjures about 55 million fresh dollars into existence every hour. By contrast, the entire world’s gold mines only manage to extract about $15 million worth of gold from the earth every hour and US mines only extract $2 million worth of gold per hour. In other words, Ben Bernanke creates US “money” about 27 times faster than US gold mines.

Wild stuff.

It is hard to fathom a readjustment of gold to keep up with the amount of money created. But that readjustment seems inevitable.

Obviously, inevitable is not the same thing as imminent. But there is good reason to think the gold price will top $2,000 fairly soon. The Deutsche Bank report shows how the gold price has pretty much marched in step with the Federal Reserve Bank’s money printing since 2000.

Based on all this kind of statistical analysis, even the mainstream Deutsche Bank predicts gold will top $2,000 in the first half of 2013.

The obvious take-away is to own some gold. Second, look at gold stocks — which have lagged the metal for some time and seem to be showing some life finally. The GDXJ, which is an exchange-traded fund made up of small gold stocks, is up over 25% since early May. It remains a good way to play a gold stock rally if you don’t want to take on the risks and frustrations of owning individual gold stocks.

Meanwhile, the outlook for the price of crude oil seems much less upbeat. In fact, I think the price of crude is likely to tank over the next couple of years.

I have said before that I think the oil bull market is on its last legs. In this, I’m just playing the odds. History and economics dictate what those odds look like.

For example, we know stock markets don’t trade for 30 times earnings — as the US stock market did in 2000 — for long. That was a figure far above the long-term average for stocks. And stocks subsequently crashed.

We know housing prices can’t sustain a price of 32 times the cost to rent them — as they did when housing prices peaked in 2006. That was again far above the long-term average of just 20 times. Housing prices later crashed.

Similarly, we can conclude that the current oil price — which is currently 230% above its long-term inflation-adjusted price — won’t last either.

The current bull market began in 1998. The average oil price in 1998 was just $11 per barrel. So the current bull market is 14 years old. And the US oil price is nearly nine times what it was in 1998. It’s been a great run.

Just how great you can see by looking at the previous chart. Crude oil is 230% above its long-term average in inflation-adjusted terms.

Besides, it is not as if we can’t see what will slay the oil price. There are many sharp swords all over the place.

Let us consider demand. The biggest economies on the earth — the United States, Japan, China and the EU — are all slowing down or contracting.

Let us consider supply. New technology continues to unveil giant sources of supply once thought uneconomic. David Fingold, a portfolio manager at DundeeWealth, writes:

More oil? It turns out that on top of US oil shale, Alberta oil sands, West Africa and Brazil there’s yet another massive source of oil that may be coming to market. It’s called the Bazhenov Shale, it’s in Russia and it’s big. I’m no geologist, but I’ve been told it’s similar to the Cardium in Alberta. Exxon starts drilling there next year. The energy boom of the 1970s ended when the North Sea and Alaska North Slope came on line at the same time. It seems likely more than two major fields will hit the market this decade. It’s hard to see oil becoming relatively scarce anytime soon.

The Bazhenov shale could be another game-changer for the oil industry. It is yet another massive oil source to add to a list that keeps getting longer as new technology cracks open sources once thought unreachable.

People will come up with all kinds of reasons to discount the new oil supplies. But history shows that human beings are creative and tenacious.

I was among the early investors in the Bakken in 2008. I recommended Kodiak Oil to the subscribers of Mayer’s Special Situations. The stock subsequently doubled. Back then, I remember hearing some geologists scoff at the Bakken and its potential to produce significant amounts of oil at low costs. Yet, here we are. Even now, I think people still underestimate the amount of oil the United States could produce.

On oil, I must disagree with my friend Byron King, who writes Outstanding Investments and (in a revision to his older “Peak Oil” views) now says we’re at “peak cheap oil,” or the end of cheap oil. I could not disagree more.

So one thing is certain; one of us is correct.

I say it is also a certainty that oil will be cheap again. And then it will get expensive again. Then, cheap again. And so on. In other words, just like any other commodity, it will continue to boom and bust and go through cycles. Timing is the great uncertainty.

I am interested in putting my money in areas where the odds favor me. Increasingly, I don’t see the odds favoring me when it comes to oil prices. To me, oil is much like stocks in 2000 or housing in 2006. It’s overpriced and due for a sizeable selloff.

Regards,

Chris Mayer
for The Daily Reckoning

 

About Chris Mayer

Chris Mayer is managing editor of the Capital and Crisis and Mayer’s Special Situations newsletters. Graduating magna cum laude with a degree in finance and an MBA from the University of Maryland, he began his business career as a corporate banker. Mayer left the banking industry after ten years and signed on with Agora Financial. His book, Invest Like a Dealmaker, Secrets of a Former Banking Insider, documents his ability to analyze macro issues and micro investment opportunities to produce an exceptional long-term track record of winning ideas. In April 2012 Chris will release his newest book World Right Side Up: Investing Across Six Continents

Special Video Presentation: Urgent Message About Your Net Worth The single, solution-packed book that could... literally... mean the difference between growing wealthy or suffering an ugly, vicious decline in your net worth. Discover how to claim a FREE copy of this book, right here.

 

 



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Currency

HOUSE OF SAUD STARTS TO UNRAVEL - OTHER DEATH KNELLS FOR THE DOLLAR & THE POTENT REASONS GOLD'S SET TO EXPODE HIGHER

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Posted by by Jim Willie CB Editor of the “HAT TRICK LETTER”

on Thursday, 27 September 2012 11:04

More loyal Jackass wannabee followers will recall a story (repeated often) that on the Easter Sunday weekend of April 2010, a secret gathering of over 200 Arab billionaires convened in Abu Dhabi. They arrived in unmarked jets. My source was one of only two or three white faces in the crowd, invited by his clients. One result of the meeting was an accord struck between the Persian Gulf oil producers, led by the Saudis, to work toward a pact with Russia and China as protector of the gulf in return for financial cooperation, economic construction, and forward progress. The implicit message was that the Untied States would be phased out in the protectorate. In the balance would lie the Petro-Dollar defacto standard as victim. Events continue to this day in movement toward that end.

However, since the Syrian uprising, a new lethal element has entered the mix. Account will be kept brief, since so volatile and controversial. Just some bare notes. The Assad family in Syria has suffered some assassinations. Apparently, the Saudis had a hand in the killings. HezBollah has vowed retaliation. Their ties to Iran might be longstanding, but perhaps are exaggerated. My view is their home is in Lebanon. In August, Prince Bandar was assassinated. He was the Saudi head of security, and long-time ally to the USGovt. The Saudi regime is concealing his death, with outdated photos and false statements. They are working toward a transition. The House of Saud has been unstable from threats to the south in Yemen. It is unstable from internal threats tied to the fundamentalists. Although cooperation and respect has been shown between Riyadh and Tehran, the Bandar hit has created an entirely new environment. The Saudi regime with high likelihood is in its final months.

More importantly, the Petro-Dollar is losing its all important Saudi leg. Implications are vast. The US public takes the USDollar for granted, with almost no concept of FOREX exchange rates. If the House of Saud falls, when it falls, the impact crater will include the entire waistline of the USEconomy and its financial dog tail that wags it. The USGovt and its banker handlers have relied heavily upon the Petro-Dollar in general, and on the Saudis in particular, ever since Henry Kissinger signed an accord that governs over the grand surplus recycling back in the 1973-1974 era. Watch the Saudis convert USTBonds to Gold, then bug out of the desert to their new mansions in Southern Spain

The recent decision by the US Federal Reserve to contaminate the financial body until it responds favorably was the last straw in my book. Witness a declaration of permanent QE and hyper monetary inflation of the most virulent strain, unsterilized. The USFed is essentially admitting failure. The signal serves as the loudest death knell for the USDollar among many in a sequence. On a similar parallel note, lighter and more humorous, one might be reminded of the pirate swash buckling style of yelling at the swabbies that the beatings will continue until morale improves. The QE bond monetization of USGovt debt has turned viral and entrenched. It is sold as stimulus, when in fact it acts like a giant wet blanket on the USEconomy. It is intended as stimulus to businesses, but the effect is felt on the financial speculation and on Asian direct business investment. In the past the emergency lever device had been successful only because it was used on a temporary basis. But now the USFed high priest assures it is a permanent fixture, a sign of their failure. The public is too ignorant to comprehend the ruin. They can only see the threat to their personal ruin.

....read the following headlines HERECHINA AS INTERMEDIARY AGAINST PETRO-DOLLAR, MONEY VELOCITY,  MEXICO CUTS A DEAL WITH CHINA FOR OIL,  STRIKES HINDER GOLD OUTPUT, THIRD WORLD THREAT, GOLD PRICE READY TO EXPLODE UPWARD

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gold-dollar image002

 
 

 



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Currency

"The prettiest horse in the glue factory"

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Posted by Mark Leibovit - VR Trader

on Wednesday, 26 September 2012 07:44

US DOLLAR AND CURRENCIES- SUMMARY 

The Dollar moved slightly higher on Tuesday on more safe haven buying.

The US Dollar Index gained.034 to settle at 79.552. 

Spain successfully sold 4 billion euros of 3 and 6-month bills on Tuesday, although yields were higher than the previous auctions. Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy on Thursday is expected to unveil additional austerity measures when he presents his 2013 budget. Italy today successfully sold zero-coupon 2014 bonds at 2.532%, down from 3.064% on Aug 28. 

Spanish ten year bond yields rose over 6 bp to 5.745%.

The GfK Oct German consumer confidence index of 5.9 was unchanged from September's 5.9 and was in line with market expectations. 

The Euro was up .22% against the Dollar.

Japan's Sep small business confidence index rose slightly to 45.1 from 44.8 in August. 

The Yen was down .05% against the Dollar.

China's Aug leading economic indicator rose 1.7% m/m after a +0.6% m/m gain in July, which was a possible sign that the Chinese economy is stabilizing. Positive factors in the leading indicator included a rebound in real estate and credit growth, and an improvement in consumer expectations. The market consensus is that Chinese GDP likely eased to about +7.4% in Q3 from +7.6% in Q2. 

China's central bank today injected a record 290 billion yuan ($46 billion) into the banking system to address a liquidity squeeze ahead of next week's Chinese holiday week.

As long as there is faith in the dollar and fiat money as a whole-and by and large there is, I see the system holding together for quite a while. I think it's Ian McAvity who calls the dollar "the prettiest horse in the glue factory." This became dramatically evident this week.

Owning Dollars other than for trading purposes is a fool's bet in my opinion. As a long term plan, you should be looking to exit Dollars and move into hard assets or strong natural resource based currencies. I particularly favor the Canadian Dollar. Other choices include the Australian Dollar, the Singapore Dollar and, of course, the Chinese Renminbi. My view is that we're ultimately headed back to the March 18, 2008 low of 70.698 and will later see 66.00 or much, much lower, possibly even the 30.00 area. This could occur between 2014 and 2018. Short-term (between now and early 2013) we should see the 73.00-74.00 area. For political reasons we may never experience the sudden overnight sudden devaluation as seen by Argentina, Brazil or Mexico in recent decades, but instead continue to see a slow diabolical deterioration. -Ed Note: Try Mark Leibovit's Special Trial Offer HERE

Prettiest Horse



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