Europe’s Leaders Prepare for Crisis

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Posted by Stratfor

on Thursday, 02 March 2017 09:11

strasbourg-sm-1This year will prove decisive for the eurozone. Between March and September, the Netherlands, France, and Germany will hold general elections whose outcomes will help determine the future of Europe's common currency. Italy, too, may hold a vote by the end of the year. In light of the uncertainty that awaits, the eurozone's major players are making moves to brace themselves for whatever the future brings.

...continue reading this fascinating Strafor analysis HERE


...related from Michael Campbell:

Major Warning: What's Next Will Be Explosive


The Euro Crisis – Dow & Gold

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Thursday, 02 March 2017 09:05

TEuro-Crisis-1he rumors are flying in France and the conservative candidate Fillon denounces a probe now into corruption. Fillon now vows to fight on to the end – not good for he has placed himself above the country making this personal. His top aide just resigned and Fillon was summoned to appear before investigators on March 15 to be placed under formal investigation over allegations that he paid his wife hundreds of thousands of euros of public money to do very little work if any at all.

Falon-Wifer-1024x657This corruption scandal of career politicians in France is opening the door for Le Pen and now we have France, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, and Greece all moving toward exiting the EU. With the ECB holding 40% of the national debts of the Eurozone countries, it looks like the Euro is on borrowed time. The outcome is simply inevitable.

This European crisis is pushing up the Dow and capital flows from smart money is starting to vacate Europe headed into the Dow for that is where “big money” always hides. Of course, domestically, they are attributing this as always to just local issues now praising Trump’s speech as optimistic. Trump’s speech was widely praised for its positive tone outside of mainstream media, which is increasingly becoming irrelevant in the real world.

Meanwhile, if gold closes above 1242 today, it can also rally again, but it avoided the Monthly Bullish Reversal so it is still showing there is inherent risk just yet.

...also from Martin: 


Todd Market Forecast: Talking Heads Are Nervous

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Posted by Stephen Todd - Todd Market Forecast

on Thursday, 23 February 2017 16:56

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 P.M. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 34 on 200 net advances

NASDAQ COMP - 25 on 600 net declines



STOCKS: A rise in oil helped oil stocks and that pushed the Dow to another record high. The rest of the market wasn't as strong. A weak high tech sector pulled down the NASDAQ.

We are encouraged by some of the comments we're hearing from the financial talking heads. Many are saying the that market is getting ahead of itself. That's not the kind of sentiment one tends to hear at significant tops.

GOLD: Gold jumped $17. There seems to be less worry about rate increases and more about global discord. A dropping dollar was also cited.

CHART The Trading Index (TRIN) was above 1.50 at the close (arrow). When it's this high, the next couple of days tend to be higher. If you're unfamiliar with TRIN, check the brochure in your introductory material.  

Screen Shot 2017-02-23 at 3.38.22 PM

BOTTOM LINE:  (Trading)



Dollar Cycle

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Posted by Gary Savage - Smartmoneytracker

on Thursday, 16 February 2017 07:16

The dollar is possibly completing the right shoulder of a head and shoulders pattern. Overnight price completed a swing high suggesting a decent possibility the daily cycle has topped. Several scenarios for the dollar’s future price movement are discussed, as well as the implications for price performance of gold related investments:

....also: Stock Trading Alert: New Record Highs As Bull Run Continues - Can It Get Even Higher?

Screen Shot 2017-02-16 at 7.56.49 AM


Something Rotten in the State of Russia?

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Posted by George Friedman and Jacob L. Shapiro

on Tuesday, 14 February 2017 06:59

Geopolitical Futures’ forecast for 2017 says the following: “In hindsight, the coming year will be an inflection point in the long-term destabilization of Russia that we predict will reach a boiling point by 2040.” This may seem counterintuitive in light of the Russia hysteria following the US presidential election. Yet in the first six weeks of 2017, it is already possible to observe indicators that this forecast is on track.

These indicators fall roughly into four separate categories of instability: the distribution and prevalence of wage arrears, pressure on the Russian banking system, low-level social and economic unrest, and government purges. The map below summarizes these developments.

Image 1 20170213 TWIG
Click to enlarge.

Show Me the Money

The bottom part of the Russia map shows wage arrears as reported by region. “Wage arrears” is a fancy term for workers not being paid. In December 2016 (the last month for which Russia’s Federal State Statistics Service has data), total wage arrears amounted to 2.7 billion rubles (roughly $46.4 million in USD).

The regions with the largest wage arrears can be divided into two categories. The first is port regions. Primorsky region, whose capital Vladivostok is Russia’s largest port on the Pacific, has by far the worst incidence of wage arrears. It accounts for 21.2% of the country’s total. The area where it is the second most prevalent is Siberia (in places like Irkutsk and Novosibirsk).


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