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Currency

Oil: Standing on the Launch Pad

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Posted by Clive Maund

on Friday, 24 November 2017 06:07

Oil Market Update

It’s a good time to take an updated look at oil, because the paradoxes we observed regarding gold and silver, which we looked at in yesterday’s new Gold and Silver Market updates are much more extreme in the case of oil.On the latest 5-year chart for Light Crude we see that oil has in recent weeks succeeding in breaking out of its giant Head-and-Shoulders base pattern at last. We also see that volume has expanded greatly over the past 2 years which is viewed as a sign of a completing bottom. Recent strong upside volume has driven both volume indicators to new highs, despite the price still being way below its 2013 highs – this is viewed as a very bullish sign, and suggests that oil will advance at least to the $80 area.wtic5year201117

......For the reasoning behind a sharp move up continue reading HERE



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Currency

Opinion: Jim Rogers says bitcoin ‘looks and smells’ like all other investment bubbles

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Posted by Jim Rogers

on Friday, 24 November 2017 05:58

MW-FY728 Rogers 20171120135819 ZHThe veteran investor provides a global roundup, with a preference for Asian stocks

At 75, veteran investor Jim Rogers remains as sharp and feisty as he was two decades ago when I first met him at Columbia Business School.

More importantly for investors in search of ideas — he’s just as opinionated. 

Like him or not, Rogers is worth listening to because he has a respectable record. Sure, he makes mistakes. Most recently, he regrets not buying bitcoin ahead of its massive run-up, as a lot of people do (including me).

But he famously made a bundle alongside George Soros in the Quantum Fund. He also made a great call on commodities in the late 1990s when he turned bullish ahead of an extended bull run, and set up the Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI). 

Given his experience and record — and all the uncertainties in the world — I recently checked in with Rogers in Singapore, on what to buy and what to avoid. Here are the highlights.

....continue reading HERE

 

also: The longtime Asia bull and Quantum Fund co-founder thinks the worst bear market of his lifetime is coming. He swung by our Hong Kong bureau to discuss the risks, as well as Trump’s Asia tour and why America could become its own worst enemy if it lets China dominate the region.

Breakingviews - Exchange Podcast: Jim Rogers

Breakingviews - Exchange Podcast: Jim Rogers

 



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Currency

The Bitcoin Bubble Explained in 4 Charts

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Posted by Mauldin Economics

on Wednesday, 22 November 2017 06:12

Cryptocurrencies have surely been the best-performing asset class of 2017.

The crown jewel of the crypto world Bitcoin has run up over 604% year to date. But that pales in comparison to Ethereum’s 3,562% gain this year.

Naturally, these sorts of monstrous returns in such a short period of time spark heated debate. In fact, many financial pundits and crypto advocates have scrambled to argue whether Bitcoin is a bubble or not.

So as the financial community takes sides, I decided to dig into Bitcoin’s tremendous run using nothing but hard data to see whether it’s in bubble territory or not. (Meanwhile, I highly recommend you download our exclusive special report, Investing in the Age of the Everything Bubblefrom Wall Street veteran Jared Dillian.)

Let’s dive in.

Bitcoin’s Performance Dwarfs Tech Stocks’ Run in the 90s, but This Bubble Is Nowhere Near the Dot-Com Mania

The Bitcoin run has drawn comparisons to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. While the sentiment and underlying forces of both bubbles may be similar, their performance is a different story.

Image 1 20171121 RH ART JW



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Currency

Victor Adair: Political Uncertainty - Stand Aside

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Posted by Victor Adair - Live From The Trading Desk - Live From The Trading Desk

on Tuesday, 21 November 2017 05:22

I have a longer term Pro-USD bias...perhaps because I’ve made money the past few years being short currencies against the USD...but right now I’m unsure what to do so I’ll stay out of the currency markets. Victor outlines opportunities in Gold, Crude Oil and the Stock Market

LIVE FROM THE TRADING DESK - NOV 18TH TRADING NOTES

Choppy price action in currencies: The September 8 Key Turn Date launched the US Dollar on a 2 month rally against most other currencies...the US Dollar Index rose 4.5%...but the past 2 weeks the price action was choppy with Euro, Yen and Gold all higher against the USD while AUD and NZD fell and CAD went  sideways. My core short term trading idea since the Sept Key Turn Date has been to be long USD but for the last 2 weeks I’ve been on the sidelines...unsure what to do.

Some analysts make the argument, and they may be right, that the recent 2 month USD rally was only a correction in the downtrend that started in January when the US Dollar Index was at 14 year highs. Interest rate premiums clearly favor the USD (at the 2 year point of the yield curve the USA is premium Germany by 242bps., premium Japan by 192bps.) but those premiums have not deterred a good rally in Euro and Yen the past 2 weeks. The ECB says the Euro area needs continuing monetary stimulus while the Fed says they will be “taking back” previous stimulus and raising rates...while the BOJ remains “peddle to the metal”...but still the USD looks wobbly.

Perhaps the USD is weighed down by “political uncertainty” in Washington relative to the “political certainty” (don’t laugh!) of the Euro zone.

Other analysts make the argument, and they may be right, that the recent 2 week decline in the USD is but a brief correction in the early stages of a developing USD rally.

I’m aware that I have a longer term Pro-USD bias...perhaps because I’ve made money the past few years being short currencies against the USD...but right now I’m unsure what to do so I’ll stay out of the currency markets.

Gold: I bought gold this morning. A small position, and I’ll be gone if it falls back below yesterday’s close, but today’s price action looks good. I’ve noticed that YTD trading volume in the gold futures market is already higher than any previous year...and there’s still 6 weeks to go in 2017. That seems counter-intuitive given the sideways price action we’ve seen in gold while open interest remains well below last year’s levels. It’s as though gold has been “churning” below the surface...just waiting for a breakout one way or the other.

 va18

 

Larger Chart

WTI: I’ve been out of the crude market for the past 2 months or so...waiting for an opportunity to get short. I’ve missed a great opportunity to trade the market from the long side because I’ve got a bearish bias...likely due to the fact that I’ve made money the past few years being short crude! Anyway, I waited and waited while the market rallied...apparently embracing the story that the cut back agreements by OPEC and some non-OPEC countries were not only “doing the job” but would be extended at the OPEC Nov 30 meeting. The “political uncertainty” in Saudi Arabia seemed to provide the “cherry on top” of hugely bullish sentiment and WTI rose to $58. I decided that this was “As good as it gets,” for WTI and got short. Prices fell $2 but then turned around and began to rally. I covered and went flat.



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Currency

Bitcoin Price Will Go To Zero As Bitcoin Will Struggle To Remain The Dominant Cryptocurrency

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Posted by Ruzbeh Bacha via Seeking Alpha

on Thursday, 16 November 2017 06:45

Summary

Blockchain and cryptocurrencies are here to stay.

Bitcoin, however, is a testing ground.

Bitcoin is overvalued with a limited chance of success and will most likely be replaced by a better cryptocurrency.

Back in 1999, I was in my final year of graduate school in finance and economics. Most of the students in my class and/or their families were involved in the Indian stock markets. The game was simple – apply for shares in an IPO and sell them at a multiple when the company lists. It was a “safe bet” and nothing could go wrong…until it did in 2000! Again in 2007 when I was completing my MBA, we had a similar situation with stocks, property and most asset classes providing phenomenal returns. What brought us down in 1999, 2007 and several times before is the greed and the herd mentality. As Warren Buffet says, be fearful when the markets are greedy.

A decade later and the astronomical price gains in cryptocurrencies has drawn speculators, technologists, the public, and now regulators. With major economies like Japan approving the use of Bitcoin for transactions coupled with large companies like Expedia and Microsoft accepting Bitcoin, several believe that the crypto could replace fiat currencies – at least in a limited sphere of transactions. But will the currency live up to the hype, or is the entire concept just a fad and a bubble?

Here is how people get trapped in bubbles:

saupload main-featured-bitcoin-article-image-1 thumb1

Before we jump into the details, let think about some of the quotes from wise men that the investing community follows.

The four most dangerous words in investing are: “This time it’s different”.

                                                                                         Sir John Templeton

Rule number one: Don’t lose money. Rule number two: Don’t forget rule number one.

                                                                                                        - Warren Buffett

The stock market is filled with individuals who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

                                                                                                        - Phillip Fisher

Know what you own, and know why you own it.

                                                               - Peter Lynch

See more quotes here.

Background

Cryptos have been around for a while, and we’ve even written about them before (How to buy Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cryptocurrencies, and What to Watch Out for and Cryptocurrency – Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin – Everything You Need to Know in 2017). The two largest, Bitcoin and Ether, have shown spectacular returns over the last decade. For reference, a $100 investment in Bitcoin in July 2010 would be worth over $11,000,000 today (give or take a couple million, as the price is notoriously volatile).

....continue reading HERE



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