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Currency

The Smartest Market in the World Isn’t Buying the Bounce

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Posted by Phoenix Capital

on Thursday, 15 September 2016 07:45

One of the most critical ideas you need to understand as an investor is that while the media focuses on stocks, they are the usually the last asset class to “get” major changes to the financial system.

This is simply due to liquidity and size of markets.

1.     Globally, the stock market is about $69 trillion in size, trading about $191 billion in shares per day.

2.     The bond markets are well north of $140 trillion, and trade about $700 billion in volume per day,

3.     The currency markets are unmeasured as every currency trade is ultimately a pairs trade (meaning to buy one currency you have to sell another). However, we do know that the currency markets trade $5.3 trillion in volume per day. 

Put another way, the currency markets trade over 26 times more volume than the global stock market every single day. As such they are the most liquid, sensitive markets in the world.

So major changes in the markets first hit in the currency markets. And the key item to watch is the $USD.

GPC91416

The US Dollar is coiling tighter and tighter into a triangle pattern. If we get a breakout to the upside, the next target is 97.

Historically, spikes to this level have resulted in a stock market meltdown soon after.

GPC914162

If you’re concerned about a stock market meltdown you need to download our 21-page investment report titled the Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

Best Regards

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research



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Currency

Dollar chained ahead of Yellen speech

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Posted by Futures - Stock Commodity Options & Forex Strategy

on Thursday, 25 August 2016 13:52

us notes printsDollar bulls and bears were both restrained this week with prices stuck in a tight range as investor anxiety mounts ahead of Friday’s heavily anticipated Jackson Hole gathering. This event has seized center stage with markets most likely searching for key hints on U.S. rate hike timings which could dispel the period of uncertainty. There may be a possibility of Fed Chair Janet Yellen addressing the inflation dilemma in the States while also keeping the doors open for a live meeting in September to raise U.S. rates.

....read more HERE including Oversupply Fears Entice WTI Bears 

...related: 

Dollar Retrospective Chart 1971-2016: Next Major Cyclical Driver?



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Currency

Dollar Retrospective Chart 1971-2016: Next Major Cyclical Driver?

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Thursday, 25 August 2016 08:19

Quotable
“Well, you can just stop and think of what could happen if anybody with a decent system of government got control of that mainland. Good God.… There’d be no power in the world that could even—I mean, you put 800 million Chinese to work under a decent system… and they will be the leaders of the world.”
 
― Henry Kissinger, On China
 
Commentary & Analysis
Dollar Retrospective Chart 1971-2016: Next Major Cyclical Driver?
Here’s a retrospective and, hopefully, some perspective on the drivers of the long-term trends in the US dollar index in the era of free-floating after President Nixon closed the gold window on August 15th 1971 and rendering the Brenton Woods system to the dustbin of history.  I have added the major macro (blue) events and more specific triggers (maroon) that led to multi-year trend changes; i.e. bull and bear markets, in the dollar. 

916611aa-a9bb-4dda-82f9-8d4b6325c195

Jack Crooks
President, Black Swan Capital
www.blackswantrading.com


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Currency

USDU ...An Important Perspective on the US Dollar

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Posted by Rambus Chartology

on Wednesday, 17 August 2016 05:55

We started following this US dollar index about a year or so ago which has a more equal weighting of different currencies than the $USD. Even though I don't post it much this Alternative US dollar index has some very interesting Chartology on it which may be giving us an important clue as to the intentions of the Dollar.

If you recall the Standard US dollar index ($USD) was testing a major inflection point in May around the 92 area earlier this year. It did finally bottom but left some unfinished business behind. This is the daily chart I was following at the time for the USDU which shows the H&S top in place and the decline that took the price action down to the low at the 25.50 area. From that low the USDU began a decent rally but couldn't trade above the neckline extension line at reversal point #2 before the bears took charge again. The bulls were able to stop the decline at reversal point #3 and a laborious rally took the USDU back up to the top of the trading range where the neckline extension line came into play again along with the 200 day moving average.

Reversal point #4 started the next decline back down to the bottom rail of what we can now call a triangle that has four completed reversal points when the price action hit the bottom rail recently. The bulls were able to only put in a modest rally over next four days when the bears took charge again. As you can see, yesterday the bears were able to break the bottom rail of the blue triangle and today that was followed by a large gap down. When you're following a well defined chart pattern and you see a gap over an important trendline that generally signals the pattern is finished building. It's never 100% but generally that is a good sign.

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Currency

The Dollar Index & Helicopter Money

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Posted by Clive Maund

on Tuesday, 16 August 2016 06:48

usd3year130816We have already figured out that, faced with the choice between doing “helicopter money” and allowing a deflationary implosion to occur, those in power will elect the former, because it buys them more time by keeping the system limping along for longer, and we have now arrived at the stage where it will be one or other. The market has already figured it out too, which is why gold and silver have started a new bullmarket.

....continue reading HERE

 

...related: Faber Warns of A Currency Collapse



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