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Currency

Gold Versus The Yen

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Posted by Stewart Thomson - Graceland Updates

on Tuesday, 15 August 2017 11:45

Aug 15, 2017

  1. For gold to perform well against the US dollar, it needs to perform well against the Japanese yen.
  2. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge. 
  3. Since 2011 gold has traded sideways against the yen. Since 2013 it has been coiling in a very positive symmetrical triangle pattern.
  4. An upside breakout would usher in a major move higher for gold against both the yen and the dollar.
  5. Since 2013, the Indian market has been dealing with major duty, import rule, and hallmarking issues. The process has weighed on demand since 2012.
  6. India’s gold market has undergone an enormous restructuring in response to these issues. The good news is that the restructuring is essentially complete now. 
  7. That paves the way for higher imports on a much more consistent basis.
  8. China has made significant progress in tying gold price discovery more to physical demand versus supply.
  9. Trump has also had major success in pushing the dollar lower against most of the world’s currencies.
  10. These are not just one-time events. Events like tension in Korea can move gold $20 - $50 in a short period of time. A $100 - $200 move is possible if the tension intensifies (which it hasn’t).
  11. Unfortunately, these gains are no more sustainable than the gains from the 1980 Russian invasion of Afghanistan were sustainable.
  12. When the tension subsides, all the gains from these one-time events tends to be lost. 
  13. To move $1000 higher or more, gold needs to see a quasi-permanent ramp-up in the physical market demand against static or limited supply growth, and that’s happening right here, right now.
  14. Trump’s actions on the dollar are a long-term process. He is now beginning a trade war with China. From a gold price discovery perspective, this is vastly more important than tension involving Korea.
  15. Please  click here now. Double-click to enlarge this gold chart.


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Currency

Forecasting, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Wednesday, 09 August 2017 10:23

Quotable

"Those who have knowledge, don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge. " Lao Tzu, 6th Century BC

Commentary & Analysis

Forecasting, Causality, the Black Swan, and your Edge

Screen Shot 2017-08-09 at 9.44.54 AM

I shared this seemingly simple equation with you recently; and today I would like to add a few comments and delve deeper:

The currency equation of expected total return:

Screen Shot 2017-08-09 at 9.46.14 AM

This equation says the primary rationale for holding a particular currency is to maximize total return, and expected total return is a function of the real yield achieved (nominal interest rates minus the inflation rate) and the future exchange rate (that which we are trying to forecast).

Do rising real yields cause the exchange rate to rise ... or is it a rising exchange rate, impacting the fundamentals, which leads to rising yields?



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Currency

USD Daily & Monthly

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Posted by Gary Tanashian - NFTRH

on Tuesday, 08 August 2017 06:19

Since I am hanging out there with a view on USD that goes against all current trends (up in the anti-USD trade and down in Uncle Buck), may as well micro-manage it until resolved.

Daily USD is in its 2nd day of flagging after breaking the harsh downtrend channel, post-jobs.

usd1-1

....continue for more charts and analysis HERE

...also from NFTRH:

Participation from the S&P 500’s ‘equal weight’ components is thinning out markedly after putting on a mini-surge in June.

....continue reading HERE



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Currency

U.S. Dollar: This Crash Signals the End

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Posted by Lior Gantz for Streetwise Reports

on Monday, 07 August 2017 06:38

As the Dow breaches 22,000 and the U.S. dollar slides, Lior Gantz, founder of Wealth Research Group, discusses portfolio positioning

Apple reported earnings this week and the stock surged, taking the Dow Jones above 22,000 points for the first time in history. 

Gantz8-4-17-1

This is our script playing out as Wealth Research Group laid out months ago—we called it the Blow-Off Top.

The future holds broad indexes like the S&P 500, Dow Jones and NASDAQ soaring into all-time highs until there are no buyers left—we are two to three quarters away from seeing this.

At this point, investors purchasing stocks are doing so at the highest valuations the stock market has ever experienced.

Most sophisticated investors are like us at this point: 



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Currency

What's Feeding The Weakness In The Dollar

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Wednesday, 02 August 2017 08:26

Trump-DownTrump & Chaos

US President Donald Trump may be a good businessman, but in politics, he just does not get it. Politics is all about ego and back-stabbing. It is not about logic and the art of the deal. After just ten days in the office, Trump’s communications chief, Anthony Scaramucci has been forced to resign. The Chief of Staff John Kelly demanded a clean new start and and that meant the dismissal of Scaramucci. This last week had caused a lot of trouble, when Scaramucci attacked the now dismissed Reince Priebus and Trump’s chief Steve Bannon with vulgar words. Trump is under pressure, because he has not implemented many announced projects so far. He is kept spinning around in circles fighting things like gays in the military creating so many new wars and hatred alienating support for projects he promised like tax reform.

So far, Trump is a man who does listen, but he is also a man who is very much his own. He is out of his league in politics. This is not about the best deal for the country. This is indeed more than a swamp – it is an entire ocean of corruption and self-interest. Negotiating a business deal is a one on one arrangement with each having a self-interest. This is a multi headed beast with no possible way of confronting on so many levels simultaneously for every politicians has his own self-interest, which has nothing to do with the good of the nation. Trump has to STOP creating so many new wars and stop the personal tweeting to get even. Just get on with the tax reform before it is too late or he will find himself losing support from the people in 2018.

It has been this downturn in Trump’s administration that feeds the weakness of the dollar.

....also from Martin: 

Our European Tour – Part II – Seizing All Bank Accounts Throughout EU

 

 



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