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Major Currency Pairs Summary

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Tuesday, 10 April 2018 05:32

Ever critical for the value of investments in different currencies, the US Dollar is down again today for the third day in a row. Jack Crook's forecast of the major currency pairs has been very accurate to date, and this analysis will tell you where you can expect the US Dollar, Euro, CDN Dollar, Japanese Yen Australian Dollar and the Great British Pound will be headed next. - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

US Dollar Index

Update: 8 April 2018/4:03 am ET

Price at update: 90.11

Wave Description: (i)|[v]|5 final thrust lower

Price Target: 87.27
Resistance: 90.98|92.40
Support: 89.82| 88.25
Forecast Negation: 92.98

Wave Analysis

Is Wave [iv]’s maddening triangle pattern finally complete? Did we see a near-term reversal pattern on Friday? We are working from the premise of yes and yes; and it is why we got long EUR/USD. Targeting down to at least 87.27 in Wave [v].

dxy

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EUR/USD Daily

Update: 8 April 2018/4:03 pm ET

Price at update: 1.2281

Wave Description: (i)|[i]|5 impulse rally

Price Target: 1.2623
Resistance: 1.2623 1.2344
Support: 1.2476 1.2153
Forecast Negation: 1.1960

Wave Analysis

Working off the premise that wave [iv] complex triangle pattern is complete with the bullish engulfing reversal pattern on Friday. (Note last two recent bullish engulfing patterns spiked out short-term bottom—each followed by an approximate 300 pip bounce.) We have revised our price target to 1.2623 based on confluence extension of Wave [i] by 1.618 and Wave [v] equality with Wave [1]—both carry exactly to 1.2623 (our minimum target). There is scope to go higher: targets above 1.2623 are 1.2779; then 1.2876.

eur

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USD/CAD Daily

Update: 8 April 2018/4:03 pm ET

Price at update: 1.2769

Wave Description: B/(C)/[2] Zig Zag

Price Target: 1.2496 (then 1.3424)
Resistance: 1.2943|1.3128|0.7916
Support: 1.22729 | 1.2581|1.2445
Forecast Negation: 1.3124
  
Wave Analysis
Another zig zag pattern seems in play here- A-B-C targeting eventually to 1.3424 to complete major wave (C) of [2]. But in the meantime, we are expecting a push down to 1.2496-level in minor [c] to complete Wave B. Note the head and shoulders setup in this chart; the neckline was broken today and the price target of 1.2496 is based on the that pattern.

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USD/JPY Daily

Update: 8 April 2018/4:03 pm ET

Price at update: 106.79

Wave Description: [iv]|5|(1) impulse rally

Price Target: 103.39 
Resistance: 107.49/ 107.90
Support: 104.55|103.3 9

Forecast Negation: 110.83

Wave Analysis
We were thinking Wave [iv] of a narrowing triangle pattern was complete, but it seems there is more to go. But, this is a very complex correction to confidence on exactly how this plays out is murky still. Either way we do believe this move down targets to at least 103.39 in a final Wave [v] of 5 of (1); after that a multi-month rally should resume.

jpy

 

*Note, if you are interested in the Great British Pound and/or the Australian Dollar for the same analysis go HERE

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Currency

Crypto-Currencies: The Current State of the 3 Largest

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Posted by Jill Mislinski - Advisor Perspectives

on Thursday, 05 April 2018 08:39

The attack on cryptocurrencies by centralized financial institutions in the name of “protecting investors from volatility” continues. Last week one of Canada’s largest banks blocked cryptocurrency purchases, a move that followed similar bans in the United States by large banks like JP Morgan. The Reserve Bank of India has issued a blanket ban on all cryptocurrency trading:

You will not be able to buy cryptocurrency via banks or e-wallets etc. in India anymore as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has banned them with immediate effect from “dealing with or providing services to any individuals or business entities dealing with or settling virtual currencies”.

Whether it was the moves by Central Banks or that is just the excuse, a quick glance at these charts reveals the current  state of the Crypto market - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

New Weekly Update: The Three Largest Cryptocurrencies

With all the focus on bitcoin lately, we've added a new weekly update that tracks the three largest cryptocurrencies by market share: bitcoin, Ether, and Ripple. According to Wikipedia, a cryptocurrency is "a digital asset designed to work as a medium of exchange that uses cryptography to secure its transactions, to control the creation of additional units, and to verify the transfer of assets."

Bitcoin is the world's first cryptocurrency and decentralized digital currency. The first bitcoin transaction occurred in early 2009 and has since grown worldwide. Ether is another cryptocurrency run on the Ethereum blockchain platform and has the second largest market share, despite being the newest of the three with its launch in July 2015. The third largest market share of cryptocurrency, XRP, is owned by Ripple and launched in 2012.

Here are all three cryptocurrency prices over time along with their trading volume. Data for all three is sourced from Coinbase.com and by request, we have shortened the time frame for a more recent picture.

d0927fb67fe51b684aa9ad8a3fd45e77



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Currency

Blowing Off Trade War Worries US Dollar Rises Again

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Posted by Nadia Simmons

on Thursday, 05 April 2018 06:24

Despite fears a Trade War would dull the Dollars appeal, the dollar Index jumped again this morning. espite consistent headlines declaring the US dollar will fall because of the US China trade war. As you can see from the chart below, while the US dollar did fall though long before trade war worries became persistant, versus a basket of currencies in fact it has moved up over 1 percent since the end of January. The USD/CAD currency is also covered below - R. Zurrer for Money Talks

Note: Double click all charts for larger images

In yesterday's Forex Trading Alert at 9:31am, we took a closer look at the current situation in the USD Index:

usd

From the short-term point of view, we see that the greenback came back above two important resistance lines – the previously-broken lower border of the black declining trend channel and the upper line of he blue declining wedge.

Yesterday, the index verified this breakout, which together with the buy signals generated by the indicators suggest further improvement.

How high could the U.S. dollar go in the coming day(s)?

In our opinion, the first upside target will be around 90.77, where the 38.2% (Ed Note: at 6:24am PST April 5th the US dollar is up +0.24 at 90.36) Fibonacci retracement and the March peak are. Additionally, in this area the size of the upward move will correspond to the height of the rising wedge (we marked it with the green ellipse), which increases the probability of the pro-bullish scenario in near future.

If this is the case and the index climbs to our first upside target, we’ll also see a realization of the bearish scenario in the case of EUR/USD as the exchange rate will test the March low and our downside target at 1.2173.

USD/CAD Rewards Bears

USD/CAD - the weekly chart

Looking at the medium-term chart, we see that although USD/CAD moved a bit higher earlier this week, currency bears took control quite quickly, which resulted in another move to the downside. Additionally, the sell signals generated by the weekly indicators remain in the cards, supporting currency bears and lower values of the exchange rate.

Are there any short-term factors that could thwart these plans?

USD/CAD - the daily chart

Before we answer to this question, let’s recall the quote from our last commentary on this currency pair:

(…) although USD/CAD bounced off the blue support zone, the pair is still trading in the green consolidation around the yellow resistance zone and well below the previously-broken lower border of the green rising trend channel.

What does it mean for the exchange rate? In our opinion, as long as the pair remains under the upper border of the formation, another attempt to move lower is very likely.

If this is the case and USD/CAD extends losses from here, we’ll see (at least) a re-test of the blue support zone in the coming days, which will make our short positions even more profitable (as a reminder, we opened them on March 19, when USD/CAD was trading at around 1.3116).

As you see on the daily chart, the situation developed in tune with our assumptions and USD/CAD declined sharply after unsuccessful attempt to break above the upper border of the green consolidation. Thanks to yesterday’s downswing, the pair dropped under the lower line of this formation and reached our next downside target - the blue support zone and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.

Although this support area could trigger a rebound, the sell signals generated by the indicators remain in the cards, which together with yesterday’s breakdown suggest further deterioration and a drop to around 1.2709, where the size of the move will correspond to the height of the green consolidation.

And speaking about the bearish potential… Looking at the daily chart, you probably already noticed a potential head and shoulders formation. You're right, the right arm of the pattern doesn’t look perfectly like in technical analysis books, but yesterday’s downswing took the exchange rate under the neck line of the formation, increasing the probability of a bigger move to the downside. Nevertheless, in our opinion, such price action will be more likely and reliable if USD/CAD falls below the blue support zone. In this case, the likelihood of a decline under the above-mentioned downside target will increase significantly.

So, how low could the exchange rate go if the situation develops in line with the pro-bearish scenario?

USD/CAD - the daily chart

In our opinion, the next downside target will be around 1. 2506, where the size of the downward move will correspond to the height of the head and shoulders formation. Nevertheless, before we see the pair at this level, currency bears will have to break under 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements first. Therefore, we will continue to monitor the market and keep our subscribers informed should we see a confirmation/invalidation of the above.



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Currency

Why Are Dollar Bulls Almost Extinct?

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Posted by Martin Armstrong - Armstrong Economics

on Friday, 23 March 2018 09:00

Fed-US-Balance-of-Payments-1950-2017

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Bloomberg-Dollar-BearsBloomberg has reported that dollar bulls are nearly extinct down to just 2.3 %. The majority, which is always wrong, are all focused on the nonsense of the budget and the current account deficits. The record high for the dollar was 1985 when even the British pound fell to $1.03. So the balance of payments went negative from 1980 to 1986 and the dollar rose. OMG!How was that possible? When you actually correlate the Balance of Payments with the dollar, something amazing emerged. The dollar rises with the balance of payments going negative. Gee whiz! That is against all perpetual bear’s reasoning.

Perhaps this magical logic is just sophistry because they use their theory and don’t bother to check if it holds up over the course of time. I have been warning countless times that the Balance of Payments is by no means simply TRADE. It includes all flows of capital outward. That includes interest. The biggest trade deficit of the USA is not with Europe, but China, who just so...                                      Larger Chart 



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Currency

Paradise in hell. Will the South African Rand morph into the Zimbabwe Dollar?

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Monday, 05 March 2018 13:21

At one point the a Zimbabwe bank note was 100 Trillion Dollars. Jack Crooks has spyed another great currency collapse set to unfold. Fortunes will be made shorting the South African Rand. - Robert Zurrer for Money Talks

Quotable 

“The malady of normative decay gnaws at order in the person and at order in the republic.  Until we recognize the nature of this affliction, we must sink ever deeper into the disorder of the soul and the disorder of the state.  A recovery of norms can be commenced only when we moderns come to understand in what manner we have fallen away from old truths.”

--Russell Kirk

Commentary & Analysis

Paradise in hell. Will the South African Rand morph into the Zimbabwe Dollar? 

safrica

In case you didn’t notice (quite possible because it doesn’t fit the MSM narrative), the esteemed South African parliament, in their infinite wisdom, decided that yes, because the ANC has turned the country into a paradise in hell during its 24-year reign of corruption and incompetence, now is the time to blame white farmers (again) for the country’s problems by confiscating their land (without compensation) and doling it out to political cronies whose skin color most likely won’t be white and farming skills most likely won’t be near the expert category.  

Here is the headline from the Daily Mail:



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