Will Aussie follow Cad’s path – down against the dollar? I don’t know, but willing to bet…

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Posted by Jack Crooks - Currency Currents

on Monday, 08 May 2017 00:00


“He who establishes his argument by noise and command shows that his reason is weak.”

--Michel de Montaigne

Commentary & Analysis

Will Aussie follow Cad’s path – down against the dollar?  I don’t know, but willing to bet…


My editor’s note is this: I realize correlation isn’t causation.  I realize correlations can change at any moment because every moment in the market is unique.  I realize it isn’t always easy to determine which variable leads and which follows in a seeming correlation; it may be neither as both may be driven by some other narrative/variable/rationale, etc.  But sometimesdivergences in prior correlations which have stood for a while can represent nice setups for a winning trade.  



Latest Oil Price Drop Drags Canadian Dollar To 14-Month Low

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Posted by OilPrice.com

on Thursday, 04 May 2017 08:03

The Canadian dollar dropped against the U.S. dollar to a 14-month low on Tuesday as the lower oil prices earlier this week added to the downside for the currency of Canada, whose key export commodity is oil.

Oil prices fell on Monday and Tuesday as hedge funds and money managers started to cut bullish positions in a reaction to quickly growing supply. At 3:40pm EST on Tuesday, WTI was trading down over 2 percent on the day, well below the US$50 mark at US$47.59. Brent Crude was trading at US$50.38. Brent Crude hit a low early on Tuesday of US$50.14—the lowest point this year.



2 Extremely Crowded Currency Trades

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Posted by Movement Capital via Seeking Alpha

on Wednesday, 03 May 2017 07:30


Bonds: Traders are betting on a steeper Treasury yield curve. They're short the 30-year bond and long the 5-year.

Commodities: Hedgers are extremely long cocoa and short feeder cattle. Speculators have ramped up their long exposure to gold since March. They're also extremely short soybeans.

Currencies: Traders are betting on a stronger AUD/USD and MXN/USD. We saw some fairly aggressive short covering in GBP/USD last week.

Stocks: Money managers are still less bullish on the Nasdaq vs. the Dow. Traders covered a few VIX shorts last week.

Note: My approach for analyzing CoT data to reveal how different types of traders are positioned in the futures markets is outlined here. If you missed it, give the article a read to see the method behind my analysis. All data and images in this article come from my website.

This article outlines how traders are positioned and how that positioning has recently changed. I break down the updates by asset class, so let's get started.


Traders covered shorts in 30-year bond (NYSEARCA:TLT) futures last week. Overall though, they still have a significant short bias.

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....continue reading HERE


Forex Trading Alert: USD/CAD – Invalidation of Breakout or Further Rally?

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Posted by Nadia Simmons & Przemyslaw Radomski - Sunshine Profitsadia Simmons - Sunshine Profitsski - Sunshine Profitsadia Simmons - Sunshine Profits

on Thursday, 27 April 2017 15:16

Sent to subscribers on April 27, 2017, 7:22 AM.

Earlier today, the greenback moved lower against the Canadian dollar, which pushed USD/CAD below the December high and the previously-broken resistance zone. Is it enough to trigger further deterioration?

In our opinion the following forex trading positions are justified - summary:





USDCAD Elliott Wave View: Ending Impulse

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Posted by Elliottwave-Forecast.com

on Tuesday, 25 April 2017 07:08

Short term Elliott Wave view in USDCAD suggest the decline to 1.322 ended Intermediate wave (X). Up from there, the pair is showing 5 waves impulse structure where Minutte wave (i) ended at 1.3338, Minutte wave (ii) ended at 1.3258, Minutte wave (iii) ended at 1.3525, and Minutte wave (iv) ended at 1.3406. Near term focus is on 1.3596 - 1.364 area to complete Minutte wave (v) and also Minute wave ((a)). The next push higher towards above target should end the cycle from 4/13 low, after which the pair should pullback in Minute wave ((b)) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 4/13 low before turning higher again. We don't like selling the proposed pullback and expect buyers to appear again once Minute wave ((b)) pullback is complete in 3, 7, or 11 swing provided that pivot at 1.322 low remains intact.

USDCAD 1-Hour Elliott Wave Chart

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